berkshiremystery

Actually this event with Buffett & Gates took place somewhere in the early 1990's... ... personally I enjoy this phenomenon the same way as the Monty-Hall problem, which was presented in the movie "21 the movie" about the MIT Blackjack team. ------- In 1996, Bill Gates wrote a review of Roger Lowenstein's book, "Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist". Gates' review, which was titled, "What I Learnt from Warren Buffett" was published by Harvard Business Review in early 1996 and later by the Fortune magazine. In that review, Gates wrote a small passage on his and Buffett's love of mathematics, which I am reproducing below: -------- "One area in which we do joust now and then is mathematics. Once Warren presented me with three unusual dice, each with a unique combination of numbers (from 1 to 12) on its six sides. He proposed that we each choose one of the dice, discard the third, and wager on who will roll the highest number most often. He gratiously offered to let me choose the die first. "Okay," Warren said, "because you get to pick first, what kind of odds will you give me?" I knew something was up. "Let me look at those dice," I said. After studying the numbers on their faces for a moment, I said, "This is a losing proposition. You choose first." Once he chose a die, it took me a couple of minutes to figure out which remaining die to choose in response. Because of the careful selection of the numbers on each die, they were nontransitive. Each of the three dice could be beaten by one of the others: die A would tend to beat die B, die B would tend to beat die C, and die C would tend to beat die A. This means that there was no winning first choice of a die, only a winning second choice. It was counter-intuitive, like a lot of things in the business world." http://mathworld.wolfram.com/images/eps-gif/EfronsDice_700.gif Billionaires' Wager With Loaded Dice SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 06, 2005 http://fundooprofessor.blogspot.de/2005/11/billionaires-wager-with-loaded-dice.html ------ Nontransitive dice @ Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nontransitive_dice A set of dice is nontransitive if it contains three dice, A, B, and C, with the property that A rolls higher than B more than half the time, and B rolls higher than C more than half the time, but it's not true that A rolls higher than C more than half the time. In other words, a set of dice is nontransitive if its "rolls a higher number than more than half the time" relation is not transitive. It is possible to find sets of dice with the even stronger property that, for each die in the set, there is another die that rolls a higher number than it more than half the time. Using such a set of dice, one can invent games which are biased in ways that people used to transitive dice might not expect (see Example). ------- Non-transitive Dice by James Grime http://grime.s3-website-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/ http://s14.postimage.org/70pfequ9t/image.jpg -------------------------------------------------------------------------- There are actually three sources on the net that sell these non-transitive dice. All online shops are in the U.K. ------ Grand Illusions in the UK (Online Shop) http://www.grand-illusions.com/acatalog/Maths_Toys.html Non-Transitive Dice - Set 1 (£3.99) http://www.grand-illusions.com/acatalog/Non_Transitive_Dice_-_Set_1.html http://www.grand-illusions.com/acatalog/non_transitive_dice_1.jpg Non-Transitive Dice - Set 2 (£3.99) http://www.grand-illusions.com/acatalog/Non_Transitive_Dice_-_Set_2.html http://www.grand-illusions.com/acatalog/non_transitive_dice_2.jpg ----- MathGear.co.uk in the UK(Online Shop) http://www.mathsgear.co.uk/non-transitive-dice/ http://mathsgear.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/IMGP6472.jpg ----- Highland-Games.co.uk in the UK (Online Shop) http://www.highland-games.co.uk/Dodgy-Dice.php

Cyprus sneezes, the rest of the world catches the cold today, the shock sends euro, shares tumbling. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/18/us-markets-global-idUSBRE88901C20130318 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-17/europe-braces-for-renewed-turmoil-as-cyprus-deposit-levy-at-risk.html

We only put 1% of the fund in it...so it was nice, but not life-changing. We don't have kehones (sic) like you Eric! Cheers! Sanj,... I knew this short therm trade had a very high probability to be extremely successful, if someone loads up with an extrem short maturity,... almost like front running on insider news. Like Ericopoly did years ago with FFH, at the day of the short sale ban, and also with the ORH trade. Watch out,... there might be some similar opportunity in the next 12 months, before the first dramatic dividend increase.

Thanks for posting :)

For sure I have known this fact for years, it might be considered shocking for the unaware. But I might encourage everybody to read "Economyths", a book by Dr. David Orrell, an applied mathematician who studies complex systems. The book describes the flawed thinking of economists and the flaws in economics itself. Even if some wise King Salomon might be able to correct this unequality, what would be considered good,... the emergence of the system itself (i.e. behavior of its agents=people) has an inherited tendency to oscillate back to the initial position over long periods of time. If a new wealth distribution system starts with an initial equal distribution, where each 1% of the population, also only owns equally 1% of it's assets, the system itself falls back to an unlinear distribution, because of the inherited behavior of it's people. Each individual participant in a system, stands daily in front of relapsing Monty Hall decision-making problems, and since the majority of people would ignore this hidden gravity field, the system itself falls back to some sort of unequality.

Hopefully it's only if you directly own 100m worth of stock. In other words, maybe if you own 50m of mutual funds and 50m of stocks, then no filing is necessary? Otherwise it seems like this is an invasion of privacy -- how do you keep your wealth secret from your children if you are filing with the SEC? http://www.sec.gov/divisions/investment/13ffaq.htm ''...but a natural person who exercises investment discretion over his or her own account is not an institutional investment manager" Nice. Thanks. Eric,... if some private individual shareholder holds some $1m investment in BAC, he/she seems to be for the SEC some poor fellow. but if someone holds $1m in ITEX (only $9m market cap company), you are a material big dealer shareholder.... I remember even Sanjeev's MPIC funds had to file Form 3 & 4 some years ago for holding ITEX. http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=Mpic&match=contains&action=getcompany So I guess if any of us board members only buys some relative tiny stake in a really tiny small cap company, he/she might be required to file at least some form. I remember reading an article that even an retired old lady was accidentally exposed in some SEC filing from a mutual fund company, only for holding some $500k in some very, very tiny money market fund (it was some tiny sub-fund in a big group of funds, only having some tiny $1-2m in AUM).

This quarterly 13F filing requirement seems only be intended for institutional investors (i.e., banks, insurance companies, mutual funds, hedge funds) that hold more than $100m in AUM of others people's money (OPM). Of course you would also have to file with the SEC other insider forms as a private individual, if someone is a material shareholder with a big percentage stake even in a tiny/small cap company like ITEX or Chanticleer Holdings with a market cap of only $5-10m. Sanjeev had to do so some time ago for the partnership. http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/Help/Holdings.asp?strParamsCommon Institutional Holdings information is filed by major institutions on form 13-F with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Major institutions are defined as firms or individuals that exercise investment discretion, over the assets of others, in excess of $100 Million. Major institutions include financial holdings companies, banks, insurance companies, mutual fund managers, portfolio managers, self managed pension and endowment funds. The report is limited to equity securities, including common and equivalents, convertible preferred and convertible bonds. The report does not include fixed income, real estate, or cash equivalents. Reports are filed within 45 days after calendar quarter end with the vast majority of updates occurring near the 45th day of the quarter.

I might post just Buffett recent quote from the 2012 Annual Report.... --- Since the basic game is so favorable, Charlie and I believe it’s a terrible mistake to try to dance in and out of it based upon the turn of tarot cards, the predictions of “experts,” or the ebb and flow of business activity. The risks of being out of the game are huge compared to the risks of being in it.

Druckenmiller closed down his Duquesne Capital in August 2010 and currently only manages his own money under new 13F filings called: "Duquesne Family Office LLC". One new familiar name is AIG, that he recently added. Duquesne Family Office http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.de/2012/05/duquesne-family-office-druckenmiller.html http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/OwnerPortfolio.asp?FormType=OwnerPortfolio&CIK=0001536411&HolderName=DUQUESNE+FAMILY+OFFICE+LLC

John Huber just wrote an article about Allan Mecham. http://basehitinvesting.com/ http://basehitinvesting.com/the-400-man-a-lesson-for-aspiring-investors/

Somehow I always feel that we all/or at least some of the core group of board members are almost like the deep core oil drillers, the type of Bruce Willis dirty dozens drillers from the movie Armageddon to save humanity. Only that we don't drill for oil or into the core of an asteroid, but rather drill with our brains for values in the stock market in the worst situations of general market fear. And remember,... also Watsa started to sell air conditioners and furnaces to pay his way through, Chou got a job as a telephone repair man working for Bell Canada, and that are all biographies where legends are made. So Sanj and Al should be worry free, if they want to follow into the foot steps of their heros.

You got me on an idea... Maybe I would start personally to look for some "cloners" randomly... in the sub $500 AUM league. With cloners, I meant Mohnish's idea of cloning other great investors, like Buffett, Berkowitz et al. I just went for some 5 minutes on fast forward and searching for them without knowing anything about them. But beware this is not a recommendation to invest with them. Someone would have to make deeper research, who's behind these partnerships. Force Capital Mgmt. http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/OwnerPortfolio.asp?FormType=OwnerPortfolio&CIK=0001317601&HolderName=FORCE+CAPITAL+MANAGEMENT+LLC Manikay Partners LLC http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/OwnerPortfolio.asp?FormType=OwnerPortfolio&CIK=0001454893&HolderName=MANIKAY+PARTNERS%2C+LLC Sabretooth Capital Mgmt (some Baby Tiger, but accidentally they had some rough year and closed shop) http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/OwnerPortfolio.asp?FormType=OwnerPortfolio&CIK=0001512445&HolderName=SABRETOOTH+CAPITAL+MANAGEMENT%2C+LLC Geduld E E http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/OwnerPortfolio.asp?FormType=OwnerPortfolio&CIK=0001352107&HolderName=GEDULD+E+E Lourd Capital LLC http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/OwnerPortfolio.asp?FormType=OwnerPortfolio&CIK=0001568190&HolderName=LOURD+CAPITAL%2C+LLC Carval Investors LLC http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/OwnerPortfolio.asp?FormType=OwnerPortfolio&CIK=0001425040&HolderName=CARVAL+INVESTORS%2C+LLC

some minutes ago the entire website wasn't reachable,... but now working perfectly again

Btw,... I just noticed on the SEC site, that it's his first filing, as of 2013-02-13... so you might be able to lurk even more into his portfolio in the following quarters... ;D http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001568820&owner=include&count=40&hidefilings=0

Sure they have to be over $100m for a 13f filing,... Allan has to file now, because he is currently at $205 AUM in equities.

Today I accidentally found finally his portfolio... not sure why I haven't looked earlier for it. Arlington Value Capital LLC http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/OwnerPortfolio.asp?FormType=OwnerPortfolio&CIK=0001568820&HolderName=ARLINGTON+VALUE+CAPITAL%2C+LLC http://whalewisdom.com/filer/arlington-value-capital-llc

John Huber at SeekingAlpha.com wrote some interesting article about Fairfax huge cash pile. --- Fairfax: 'Canada's Warren Buffett' On The Importance Of Holding Cash 2013-02-19 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1203031-fairfax-canada-s-warren-buffett-on-the-importance-of-holding-cash?source=yahoo Or http://basehitinvesting.com/canadas-warren-buffett-on-the-importance-of-holding-cash/ http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/2/18/saupload_Prem-Watsa-Fairfax-Performance.png

Only Sanjeev is now stuck to be called Parsad by board newbies ::)

Today Berkshire reached a new milestone... but let's calm down of the euphoria. We have currently surpassed the old historic highs from before the financial crises. If there isn't some major market correction, the price might see Tilson's target range from his last research paper in the not to distant future. Not sure, who mentioned something about an observation about new heights in Berkshire, and/after repurchase announcements. Only "Beware" as Buffett would say,... Berkshire's future decades should be more moderate compared with it's past decades, because of it's size of it's balance sheet. I personally would say,... It ain't easy to maneuver an aircraft carrier in a duck pond of investment opportunities to shoot elephant's, also after the Heinz deal, because with size come sooner or later diminishing returns. For me personally those new heights don't get me in any party mood at all. They are reasonable sooner or later in Berkshires compounding process, but nothing more. ----- Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Closes Above The $150,000 Mark 2013-02-19 SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/article/1204921-buffett-s-berkshire-hathaway-closes-above-the-150-000-mark?source=yahoo http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/2/19/saupload_berk.png http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/2/19/saupload_brka.png

Wow,... how time flies. I almost forgot myself how old this board is and how long i have been a member. Now I had to look onto BigCharts.com Fairfax's decade long chart, because it's the only way that helps me memorize when I joined myself the board,... it must have been probably around the fall/winter of 2002/03. Then came in January of 2003 the big drop in Fairfax's share price, while this board became a big family. I still remember the iconic battles between bsilly and brolgaboy, and Lotsofcoke's being the board's stand-up comedian with his Chemical Ali character. Sadly some of the old regular board member's vanished into cyber haven, while new interesting ones joined from around the world, so we got a delicious food plate of investment opinions from Belgium, Mexico, Sweden and Italy,... C'est la vie. Congrats & Happy Birthday to everyone ! ;D

The next activist investor ;D Speaking of Girls going into high finance,... I might introduce you to some other young lady, she is no Hollywood actress, her name is Genna Salinas. We might disregard the silly term "the next Buffett". She had invested in Google, but at least she seems to me more down to earth while trying to find her personal circle of competence to where she stays and her thoughts seem to be well reasoned. She spoke in front of the big guys like Bill Ackman. Is This 16-Year-Old Stock Picker the Next Buffett? 2013-02-15 http://www.bloomberg.com/video/is-this-16-year-old-stock-picker-the-next-buffett-lJswdaHVSASgGYCfWGrfzA.html

Not sure if it already has been posted, but just found by accident some older interview with Francis Chou from July 22, 2011. At least it's still interesting to hear his thoughts on investing. Francis Chou & George Athanassakos Richard Ivey School of Business - Value Investing Interview http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCJlCD4uFxQ

That's a decent list if you're just starting out. Morningstar is also a good resource for larger companies (also available for free through most libraries). But as you get more comfortable with investing, you'll want to spend nearly all of your time reading the Ks and Qs; there's no better way to learn how to invest than to read the filings of as many companies you can possibly squeeze into each year. Focus on figuring out what makes a company special -- why it's different than most companies and can earn outsized profits. If it isn't special, then move on. I could care less if a company is special or earning outsized returns, I'd rather buy cheap and sell dear. It's nice that most value investors these days are really growth investors in value clothes, a lot less competition for the real cheapies…to each his own! As for what to look for when reading an annual report? I'm looking for a reason to not invest, deepValue is looking to see why a company is special, others are looking at different aspects I'm sure. The bottom line is to figure out the purpose for your reading before you start to read. If you are just reading reports to read them you won't gain anything, read with a purpose. Oddball,... good that you are picky and selective reading annuals, because otherwise it would be some waste of time. There are probably more than 50,000 publicly traded companies worldwide,... just to put that into comparison to a human life expectancy, maybe 30,000 days (7days x52wks x80yrs =29,120 days)... it shows how silly it would be if someone only tries to go on a reading marathon. The real task is to be picky and selective into which reports someone reads,... 99.9% of reports, I wouldn't touch, only while looking one minute over a Value Line. Either way, good company, but current share price seems to be excessively at historic upper PE ranges, or some unknwn mid-cap company, that has never produced some net profit since it's founding, and it's equity is slowly melting away. The remaining few gems are occasionally worth a weekend read.

It only seems odd that almost nobody seems to remember Outstanding Investor Digest (OID) and it's editor Henry Emerson. The last issue had some excellent in-depth article about Chesapeake Energy, Southeastern Asset Mgmt. / Longleaf Fund's Mason Hawkins & Staley Cates.

Terrance Odean & Brad Barber at U.C.Davis wrote a research paper some years ago called "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors" http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/Papers%20current%20versions/Individual_Investor_Performance_Final.pdf http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/ http://gsm.ucdavis.edu/faculty/brad-m-barber