berkshiremystery

Hi scc,... I just went myself to your mentioned website at Morningstar, and couldn't find any such information at all that you were mentioning. Maybe I'm today brainless, ::) but I couldn't find there any information of the share count of senior executives. They have there only tables of institutional holders (i.e. other insurance companies, funds and banks,... holding shares). Dear scc,... not sure what you saw from your side,... from your computer. But you might help us understand you, if you would be so kind as to make a picture/ screenshot of your browser window with this Morningstar.com page and upload the photo to this forum. Maybe it would clear any misunderstandings. Otherwise I think, your numbers might be a error of Moningstar or something. I personally have been an Fairfax shareholder for almost a decade now, know all the Watsa family names, and have seen them at the AGM. Fairfax it's Prem's painting, like Buffett considers Berkshire his painting. They both will hold their shares until they die, or they will go to some family trust. Currently Prem holds most of his Fairfax ownership through his Sixty Two Company. You might be able to read the last available Fairfax proxy letter here ---> http://www.sedar.com/DisplayCompanyDocuments.do?lang=EN&issuerNo=00002458&sub=1 Or here directly @ page 3 ---> http://www.sedar.com/GetFile.do?lang=EN&docClass=10&issuerNo=00002458&fileName=/csfsprod/data127/filings/01870276/00000001/f%3A%5Cjbarrett%5Cfairfax1411-0001%5Ccircular2012%5C283469Circular.pdf ----- (4) Mr. Watsa controls Sixty Two, which owns 50,620 of our subordinate voting shares and 1,548,000 of our multiple voting shares, and himself beneficially owns an additional 257,714 of our subordinate voting shares and exercises control or direction over an additional 2,100 of our subordinate voting shares. -----

Soros sounds almost like Ericopoly.... ;D “Outperforming the market with low volatility on a consistent basis is an impossibility,” said Soros, 82. “I outperformed the market for 30-odd years, but not with low volatility.”

Would love to see a fund which guarantees returns, "or your money back". Anyone know of one? Collecting fees is so damn easy. Shouldn't it be enough, if someone builds himself a decent portfolio,... purchasing a "$100 dollar bill" and paying it with a $50 bill note of the same currency. It's not a guaranteed return, but a pretty sure bet or with a decent margin of safety. If this cushion isn't a guarantee, what else do you want? Otherwise I remember some decades ago,... in a period of much higher long term interest rates,... some financial marketing guys build products with some guarantee of principle,.... 50/50%, splitting half of the money into some speculative future fund, while the other half would be put in some safe zero bonds compounding around 7-8%, thus doubling the half over some decade to the original nominal face value of the invested capital in case if the other half would blow-up. Someone wouldn't have lost anything, but neither way would they have gained much. For any guaranteed return or guarantee on principle, there goes a hidden premium paid, and that's the flip side of the coin, that someone has to subtract from your total return. There is no free lunch. Or,... maybe BRK itself offers an investor currently some guaranteed return, after the hidden "put" repurchase feature. Only some food for thoughts. Berkshire Stock Outperformed the S&P 500 by 83 Percentage Points in the Year After the Only Other Time Buffett Offered to Buy Back Stock At page 20 of the slides http://www.tilsonfunds.com/BRK.pdf

Some similar opinion made by George Soros that hedge funds as a group can't beat the market. Soros Says Hedge Funds Can’t Beat Market Because of Fees 2013-01-25 Bloomberg Video 2:18min http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-25/soros-says-hedge-funds-can-t-beat-market-because-of-fees.html

It's already damn funny only to read the articles about their feud and watch the Boomberg vids here,... but currently I hav to run into the real world,... already late for my daily schedule. ;D

Another good article... Buffett Wins With an Index Fund 2013-01-25 Barron's http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2013/01/25/buffett-wins-with-an-index-fund/?mod=yahoobarrons The longer you hold an investment, the more those fees hurt. Stewart Neufeld in the Journal of Financial Planning estimates that Wall Street takes home 46 percent of your returns over a decade — leaving you 54 percent — if the fund’s management fees, trading costs and such cause it to underperform the benchmark by 250 basis points, or 2.5 percent. Extend the holding period under such circumstances to 50 years, and Wall Street gets 74 percent. In both cases, you’re providing 100% of the cash, and taking 100% of the risk.

Almost Zero. My tv watching has become to almost zero in recent years,... well, probably more or less than around 1hr in the entire week, and then I wouldn't even have known what I have watched the only 5 minutes while falling tired asleep, lol. I know,... I would probably spoil the fun of most tv watchers.

Buffett pulls ahead in wager against hedge funds 2013-01-24 Fortune.com Five years into a ten-year bet that an S&P index fund can beat hedge fund funds-of-funds, Warren Buffett is in the lead for the first time. http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2013/01/24/buffett-hedge-fund-bet/?source=yahoo_quote

Before Berkshire: Investment Ideas Inspired By The Buffett Partnership 2013-01-23 SeekingAlpha.com Buffett is a winning card player and he plays with an edge. His investment style has evolved over time as his edge has changed, but he always maximizes his edge http://seekingalpha.com/article/1127181-before-berkshire-investment-ideas-inspired-by-the-buffett-partnership?source=yahoo http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/1/23/957061-1358949360138593-Chris-DeMuth-Jr-_origin.jpg Source: http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/1/23/957061-1358949360138593-Chris-DeMuth-Jr-_origin.jpg

I think this link strings the above together http://www.bloomberg.com/video/appaloosa-s-david-tepper-on-stocks-strategy-hNEuFAUQSKORXP5UJNYUUQ.html Here's the accompanying article for the videos. Appaloosa’s Tepper Bullish on Stocks as U.S. Growing 3% 2013-01-22 Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-22/appaloosa-s-tepper-bullish-on-stocks-as-u-s-growing-3-.html Tepper, 55, made his last big call on equities in 2009, when his fund returned 130 percent betting on bank stocks in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. He owns Citigroup Inc. © today, saying the New York-based bank may rise 50 percent because of its strong international business. Citigroup declined 0.1 percent to $41.60 at 1:09 p.m. in New York. U.S. stocks will get a boost as investors shift from credit investments, which are headed toward “extreme value” after climbing for the past few years, Tepper said. Appaloosa Mgmt. LP portfolio profile as of 2012-09-30 http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/OwnerPortfolio.asp?FormType=OwnerPortfolio&CIK=0001006438&HolderName=APPALOOSA+MANAGEMENT+LP

I personally wouldn't get too excited yet. I haven't followed the RIM story (or the RIM thread on this board) much, but does any of this price-action matter before it becomes clear whether the BB10 will sink or swim? As a distant observer, that seems to be make or break for the company. I guess it also depends on what the patents etc could reasonable be sold for (floor worst-case liquidation situation), which I have no clue. The performance of RIM is certainly debatable, as you suggested. But to me the bigger issue is that FFH does not have a viable exit strategy. Now that Prem is a RIM board member, he will be hard pressed to dump RIM shares, even if they approach a price that is near FFH's evaluation of intrinsic value. After all, what does it say about his commitment to the company if he dumps his (our!) position? If you can't sell, and they don't pay a dividend.... I beg to differ. I find it highly unlikely that Watsa, Bradstreet and Co would take such a big stake if they did not think that they had a reasonable exit strategy. Perhaps Prem entering the board will make it easier to implement a plan B if the need arises (e.g. slice and dice). I rather hope that Prem brings RIM's CEO Thorsten Heins as some surprise guest to this years shareholders dinner at the Fairmont. ;)

I personally wouldn't get too excited yet. I haven't followed the RIM story (or the RIM thread on this board) much, but does any of this price-action matter before it becomes clear whether the BB10 will sink or swim? As a distant observer, that seems to be make or break for the company. I guess it also depends on what the patents etc could reasonable be sold for (floor worst-case liquidation situation), which I have no clue. The performance of RIM is certainly debatable, as you suggested. But to me the bigger issue is that FFH does not have a viable exit strategy. Now that Prem is a RIM board member, he will be hard pressed to dump RIM shares, even if they approach a price that is near FFH's evaluation of intrinsic value. After all, what does it say about his commitment to the company if he dumps his (our!) position? If you can't sell, and they don't pay a dividend.... I personally hope that Prem behaves prudently and not linear like in the similar fashion of the ICO investment, thus he might sell it earlier or even hold it for some longer time. It all should depend in what direction RIMM goes, cigar butt or a revival to new glory as some alternative ecosystem. In this case he might secure profits after doubling his initial average cost basis, afterward sell half like ICO, and keep the remaining other half for some longer time. ----- From the AR: As an example of our long term value investing approach and the need to be patient and calm through adverse market fluctuations, in the table below we show you the results of our purchase and sale of shares of International Coal. This is a company of which Wilbur Ross was Chairman and owned 16%. Our Sam Mitchell, who originated this purchase idea, joined the Board in 2008, after we had acquired 13.8% of the shares. ....we averaged down from our initial cost of $4.58 per share to an average cost of $3.37 per share. We sold half our position at $7.26 per share (a 115% gain) and only five months later, there was a takeover offer for the whole company at double that price. In spite of not buying only at the low and not selling only at the high, we earned $341.2 million by selling at over three times our cost. Our experience with International Coal is exactly what we have done over 35 years of investing – average down when buying and average up when sell- ing! An added advantage in this case – we got to know Wilbur and he is an excellent partner. http://www.fairfax.ca/files/Letter%20to%20Shareholders%20from%20Annual%20Report%202011%20FINAL_v001_j939zn.pdf ----- I wouldn't get to exited about the current market cap, because everything depends if RIMM can deliver earnings again and/or if FFH is able to harvest the underlying intrinsic or break-up value. But nevertheless here is some glimps into their historic market cap. RIMM historical market cap data: http://ycharts.com/companies/RIMM/market_cap

Here's a better overview of Lou Simpson's portfolio NASDAQ.com SQ Advisors LLC portfolio as of 2012-09-30 http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/OwnerPortfolio.asp?FormType=OwnerPortfolio&CIK=0001534380&HolderName=SQ+ADVISORS%2C+LLC

Buffett: U.S. debt on its own ‘not a problem’ Billionaire says deficit a lower percent of GDP than after World War II 2013-01-20 MarketWatch.com / WSJ http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buffett-us-debt-on-its-own-not-a-problem-2013-01-20?siteid=yhoof2

biaggio,... maybe you misunderstood me,... I'm still that outdated, that when it comes to books, I need to feel the real paper in my hands, where I can also make marks. Only Giofranchi is the cutting edge techno-freak when it comes to reading books.

Personally I'm against guns, but we should also consider Patrick Byrne made himself probably a lot of enemies while hunting the Sith Lord from the dark side of Wall Street with his website DeepCapture.com. He tried to expose the organized hedge fund crime rings into the public spotlight, that did the illegal naked shorting in Overstock and Fairfax. I could imagine that he got perhaps hidden death threats. Imagine yourself to be in Byrne's position, and walking alone at some dark parking lot. I remember even Sanjeev said back then that he himself should be very careful. I personally think that Patrick is some very reasonable guy, that wouldn't use a gun hasty. He only got caught accidentally in some silly situation.

One of the reasons I like this board so much is that “out there” in the “cold” world I am usually looked at with “great” suspicion… sometimes, even amusement… “Has he got some serious problems?”, “Is he a little crazy?”… I have a whole apartment that I use as my own personal office, and it so much full of shelves stacked up with books, annual reports, etc., that anyone who comes in starts looking at me with disbelief… On this board, instead, everyone behaves like I do!! What “out there” seems to be so unconventional, and therefore difficult to accept, on this board is just common and obvious!! :) giofranchi Damn, and I thought that I would be the only person with the those habits. If someone would enter my apartment, I have already the hallway on one side, the whole wall covered with my bookcases full of mostly business, finance and science books (at last count over 700, after I stopped counting, not to mention books in other rooms), annual reports, and research papers. But always afraid that strangers would freak out over those titles and think that I might be some mental weirdo... "Stalking the Black Swan", "Securities Analysies", "Bringing Down the House", "Fortunes Formula", "SuperFreakonomics: Global Cooling, Patriotic Prostitutes, and Why Suicide Bombers Should Buy Life Insurance", "Against The Gods", "Theory of Games and Economic Behavior", "The Blind Watchmaker", "The Selfish Gene",... sooner or later someone might think that I'm an antisocial with a borderline syndrome. ;D And I have the odd behavior of covering my bookcases and titles occasionally when the plumber or meterman comes and passes my hallway, feeling my reading habits would make them gawk. :o

Berkshire Hathaway Enlarges DaVita Stake as Company Expands 2013-01-18 Forbes.com http://www.forbes.com/sites/gurufocus/2013/01/18/berkshire-hathaway-enlarges-davita-stake-as-company-expands/?partner=yahootix ------ Why Ted Weschler Keeps Buying DaVita (DVA) 2012-11-09 GuruFocus.com http://www.gurufocus.com/news/196687/why-ted-weschler-keeps-buying-davita-dva

There comes "Eike Batista" to my mind, he is a Brazilian billionaire who made a fortune in mining, oil and gas exploration. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eike_Batista After spending his childhood in Brazil, Batista and his family moved to Europe when he was a teenager, due to his father’s occupation. They lived in Geneva, Düsseldorf, and Brussels. In 1974, he began to study metallurgical engineering at the University of Aachen in Germany. When he was 18 years old, his parents returned to Brazil, yet Batista remained abroad and began selling insurance policies door-to-door to make his living. In interviews, he often mentions that the "stress" and the lessons learned from this experience were essential for his education.

The problem is that Sears can't be valued purely on it's hidden real estate values because it is a machine that lost about $800 million last year. If the real estate assets were held in a separate publicly traded company that just collected rent from their tenants then yes it maybe should be valued the same as a company that does that only. Should two identical apartment buildings across the street from each other be valued the same for investment purposes if one is rented out to tenants for the last 10 years with modestly increasing rents, low turnover and able and effective superintendant and the other one loses money every year due to insufficient rent or problem tenant or damages or turnover or poorly run by the superintendant? As an investor buying income, the former commands a premium. I fully agree with you that identical buildings in the same street might be valued totally differently because they likely have a whole set of different variables governing them, but somehow it seems that Sears real estate is valued at the lowest edge currently. If I look at the following table, my gut feeling say to myself that the current valuation at $4.5b seems very modest. It might be only $15, 20 or 25b, what do I know about all their locations, but it's seems definitly higher than $4.5b. http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/50533897ecad04e02e000018-900/.jpg

Hyten1,... You might be right,... and therefore I also made this outrageous and provocative assumption of $50 billion. I asked an outrageous question to make board members think. The real values are hard to validate, but the multiples are definitly higher than today. Would Lampert put his net worth on the table for many years without a hidden margin of safety.

If Lampert compares SHLD vs SPG,... it has become relative cheaper currently,... or better said the spread has widened !!! If two companies have almost the same amount of real estate equally spread across the country, and if every other balance sheet item shouldn't be a concern, should their market values be similar ? ------- Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG) $49.32 billion market cap = 245 million square feet of real estate Sears Holdings Corporation (SHLD) $4.75 billion market cap = 256+ million square feet of real estate ------- So my provocative question as a novice,... if Sears would be valued purely on their hidden real restate values, the same way as Simon Property Group,... shouldn't it trade at least above $50 billion or at $450 per share ?!?!?! Any reasonable objections are welcome ? -------- P.S.: Somebody might want to study the slide show "Berkowitz: Case Study III" before submitting an answer to this poll. http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/shld-sears/msg99539/#msg99539

Anyway,... I just saw Chandran Ratnaswami, a HWIC managing director, is also a member of the board of directors at the Zoomer Media Ltd. http://zoomermedia.ca/board-of-directors/chandran-ratnaswami

Thanks Al,... for pointing to this little known curiosity ;) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZoomerMedia Znaimer owns 66% of the combined company, and insurance company Fairfax Financial owns 28%

The ice is melting further beneath SAC.... Probation for Ex-SAC Analyst Who Cooperated in Insider Trading Inquiries 2013-01-09 NYTimes.com http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/01/09/probation-for-ex-sac-analyst-who-cooperated-in-insider-trading-inquiries/ ------- SAC analyst Wesley Wang, who helped government with insider trading probe, gets only two years probation 2013-01-09 NYPost.com http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/sac_sentence_drops_hint_to_martoma_CPPV972H9kbITMUMJZHYfK ------ Former SAC analyst who cooperated with probe gets probation 2013-01-09 Reuters.com http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/09/wang-hedgefunds-idUSL1E9C99T820130109 ========= It seems they close an office to cut expenses... SAC to Close Chicago Office 2013-01-10 WSJ.com http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323442804578234040466328894.html ----- SAC may lose $30 million in revenue amid withdrawals 2013-01-11 StamfordAdvocate.com http://www.stamfordadvocate.com/news/article/SAC-may-lose-30-million-in-revenue-amid-4187477.php#ixzz2Ho7RJIIh http://www.stamfordadvocate.com/news/article/SAC-may-lose-30-million-in-revenue-amid-4187477.php