tnathan

Potentially no actual reason. Could be a general feeling that it’s risky left over from 08 era. Clearly the growth has been great recently.

Piggybacking off the regional bank thread, does anyone have any smaller cap banks that are top picks? I am looking at SBCF - seacoast. Good growth given Florida location, doesn’t have the asset maturity issue to the extent other banks have, key metrics have expanded over time. Are the loans they are making very risky? Florida real estate makes me concerned but perhaps not nearly as risky as it was in 08.

M&T is the pick for me. Seems they didn’t overextend on the maturities and it trades cheaper than the others.

This is great thanks guys!

What is the easiest way to get leverage on a bond trade? Such as, if I wanted to make a bet that short term treasury yields will be <3% within 2 years, is there a smart way of doing this using options on short term treasury etfs?

Put on a pair trade - short arkk (via SARK) and then bought DIA...Unless we really have a crazy run here I think this works out well. Does anyone disagree? Open to feedback!

A few picks: BIG & MATV. Both of these stories are essentially margin recovery plays that have been beaten up due to what I believe are transition quarters related to inflation. Margins should recover for both of them over the next 4-6 quarters. Edit: Also adding on GRFS. They seem to be getting much more serious on the investor communication piece (it is family owned) and more focused on the business. The plasma market had a huge shortage during COVID - this should normalize moving forward and they will be able to pay down their massive pile of debt over time. The market itself is extremely attractive and a secular grower...they are in an oligopoly with a long runway, and if the business gets managed better over time you can see huge margin expansion here and with the debt paydown it could springboard higher.

March '23 VIRT $26 calls...I think this has a decent chance of another huge run up at some point next year if we see any kind of volatility.

Would also add things like the aggregates businesses here (VMC, MLM)...volume is set by market demand which fluctuates, but there is no substitute and the market is so localized (it's not economical to transport rocks long distances) that pricing power is immense, assuming all local queries are acting rationally (not always the case but as the big players get more share over time it is becoming that way).

Thanks for the insight everyone...looking forward to the Wells update @dealraker. I did a bit more reading on Goosehead and it does seem like they have a very interesting / differentiated model with a potential for 10+ years of strong growth runway. What is the general bear thesis (apart from valuation)?

Does anyone have some good reading on the dynamics in the insurance brokerage industry? What differentiates these stocks? Over the past bunch of months we have seen relative underperformance from BRO vs. all the other major brokers. Why would this be?

No probably not just keeping it simple. These will work if QQQ goes down too.

Time to buy some SPY puts again...Market making a big rally, Vix under 25, buy some protection in case this is another head fake.

I've found it very interesting how relatively well ETH + BTC are holding up. If anything, this could provide an ETH tailwind as it's pretty clear that the only true safe place in crypto is on-chain, where everything is out in the open. To me this lack of selling pressure is extremely bullish, but also believe there will be a lot of other news stories that come out and a lot of volatility

Hi all, I've been doing a lit bit of digging and came across some preferred stock that seems to interesting...it is ticker SIGIP. Trades at ~$17 vs. $25 par value, yields 6.8%. The non-preferred equity (SIGI) is relatively non-volatile and has done well (near an all time high). What I don't fully understand about this is the expectation of price on the preferred equity (SIGIP). Would we expect SIGIP to revert back to $25 if interest rates go down at some point over the next 2-3 years? More broadly, is this a decent time to shop for on-sale preferreds to lock in both a strong yield and upside of price reverts to par?

Thanks everyone for the thoughtful replies. I moved into tech to get better WLB (was working 70 hours a week previously doing PE due diligence) but now that I'm here the bureaucracy is what I am hoping to avoid in future roles. Perhaps I'm best suited to work for a startup where there aren't so many stupid tasks!

Do many people in the forum work in the investment management business in some form? I am planning on going to business school next fall (happy to be talked out of it) and am thinking about pivoting into the field (happy to be talked out of it). Former consultant / now work in tech. What are some major downsides of the industry that most don’t know of? I think I would enjoy it far more than what I’m doing currently.

SPY puts (Sep 19 expiration). We are approaching the 200 day MA which has historically been a spot where the market has taken another leg downards in previous recessions / downturns after a bear market rally. I don't think anyone really knows how bad the economy will look in 12 months but with vix levels down to 20 this is a very cheap and potentially asymmetric bet after the strong rally.

What is the JXN thesis?

Hi all -- I've posted a few times but relatively new to the board and to investing. To me there's two clear camps in value investing: 1) cigar butt and 2) investing in longer term compounders. It seems that #2 is the way to go, especially as it lends itself to less stress - I look at Akre's portfolio as a good example of this strategy. However, I find myself having trouble understanding at what p/e or fcf multiple I should be buying at. Obviously the lower the better, BUT WHAT LEVEL IS TOO HIGH? Looking at a couple long term winners such as BFAM, Che, AMED, WSO, KMX, USPH, Goog, MSFT is paying 30x earnings or cash flow too high? I believe all of these plays have the opportunity to reinvest for many years (Decades) at high returns on capital, so does the price today even matter?

Wanted to start a thread on companies with visionary CEOs that actually give a company an edge, both on strategy and execution. To start by naming a few, I think Reed Hastings at NFLX, Gary Friedman at RH, and Zuck at FB. Are there other CEOs that you believe truly add value to a stock?