ourkid8

I think I agree with you as well :'(

I am pretty much out of PDH and sold the remaining earlier this week. I did roll the cash into FFH and will enjoy the ride up as this Q will be incredible and the moves in BB has not been reflected in the stock yet! PDH has been a terrible investment and a learning experience.

Maybe :) hahahha -kidding! I am dying for the FFH conference call to see how Prem capitalized on this Casino. Is this you Prem? ;D

Liquidated my BB holdings at $27.50 with a cost basis of $5.89. What an amazing ride and thank you WSB!!!

The only thing missing is a few rocket ship emojis at the end and it’s perfect :) Hopefully, in the annual letter Prem will write, "FFH owned BB for 10 years and was able to exit its position with a considerable profit. Given the time that FFH held the shares, the gains were not outstanding, but it is nonetheless a profitable exit. In the future, we endeavour to focus more intently on risk management, particularly as it relates to our management team's circle of competence and to better consider the importance of position-sizing when we select our investments. BB will not go down as an epic success for FFH, but it has been a valuable learning experience." SJ Ha - I think we can do better than that! Our investment in Blackberry came to life in the quarter. We bought it for the wrong reasons and the time taken to turn the business around has crushed our IRR. Lesson learned. However, we do at least have a significant gain in absolute terms which we do not want to give up. Looking forward, Blackberry has two shots on goal. Either of QNX or IVY could become leading subscription products in connected cars, a market with a huge TAM. We do not know whether Blackberry will achieve this goal, or when, but the upside over the next 10 years could theoretically be transformational for Fairfax if it does. To balance these risks we have entered into a short position that protects us should Blackberry shares fall to price X. One benefit of this short position may not be immediately obvious, other than to long term followers of Fairfax. Almost everything we short goes straight up!!! We work hard to ensure the success of our investments, and by shorting Blackberry we have all but guaranteed that it is going to the moon.

This is exactly why I have not sold a single share of BB yet in my personal portfolio.

Ditto!

I wish i did the same and great move!!!! I am still holding my shares with a book of $5.XX. I did add to my Fairfax position earlier today.

Amazon will only partner with another company if they feel the upside is tremendous. Look at their investment in Aurora, i am just waiting for the announcement when they will integrate Ivy as well. Super exciting story and it is just starting.

How about Roger Lace? :) Weak hands! Continue to hold like Prem for the long term!

I feel the price of $BB has now gotten ahead of itself. I really like the long term prospects of the company but I am not sure if I should hold of just liquidate my position. Insider action: 1. Roger lace sold out of his position (HW insider on the board) 2. Chief marketing officer of BB reduced their holdings by nearly 60% 3. CFO liquidated their position

Would you be able to elaborate on Ki? 1. Is Brit the only company to roll this out or will all the members in lloyds of london do so? 2. Fairfax and blackstone own this venture 3. Will Ki write policies and own the risk or will that be only with Brit Sorry, i have a lot of questions as I do not understand the venture however I believe they have started to write policies as of Jan 21.

Why do you say you doubt it will last? Compare BB's valuation to it's competitors in the segments they compete in and let us know what you see.

The USD denominated shares are only down 0.77 so a big discrepancy. Xerxes noted that it is trading X-D today, so shave US$10/sh off the price for that alone. SJ

Now that's the million dollar question the market is trying to price. BB has not on-boarded any tier 1 automakers onto Ivy yet and we do not have their pricing model. I believe there will be a monthly reoccurring charge per vehicle to the automakers for this service. Each individual car will also have also have access to an app store which they will pay to download apps. As a rough estimate, determine their marketshare they can potentially capture, add a $5-7/month charge to each vehicle along with a couple of dollars of apps individuals will download and come up with a high level guesstimate. At this point, that's all you can do to determine how much money they can potentially make from this. Well quite. Hence my question. It's always had significant opportunities. Okay. So, how does BB make money from this, and how much? As a starting point, after a FFH debenture conversion, BB would have about 600m shares outstanding. To justify the current share price, they'd need something like $1/sh EPS, or at least $1/sh of cash from ops, so call it roughly $600m annually. They currently are on target for about $40m of cash from ops, which is actually an improvement over previous years. It's great to partner with other successful companies, but it needs to eventually flow down to the bottom line. The fact that they've generated bugger-all in terms of cash from ops over recent years is their problem. SJ

#2 is the most exciting aspect as Fairfax has no choice but to implement all the learnings from Digit across their insurance empire. Look at LMND and their growth!

The difference with BB Ivy is that it is a co-venture with a proven player in Amazon. They are not just using AWS services but also Amazon developers and amazon is going to put a lot of resources behind this venture. How I see it playing out, Tesla is like the dominant EV closed player (Similar to Apple) but BB Ivy will be like Android playstore allowing numerous EV players to share data, accelerate their AI learning, create apps between themselves etc... and BB will be the gatekeeper. Well quite. Hence my question. It's always had significant opportunities.

The big issue has been execution and that's where BB has been very weak. 2020 was supposed to be their breakout year but that is now pushed to this year due to Covid. Remember, BB teamed up with Amazon on BB Ivey so if it truly becomes the game changer which a lot of individuals are expecting, I can definitely see Amazon taking them out once it is proven and becomes embedded in vehicles in 2023. Also, Don't forget to look at John Chen's contract, it was recently extended to 2023 and he needs to get this stock in the USD$20-30 range to really make a killing. Everything is slowly playing out for an exit in 2023 IMO. So Blackberry shares traded at US$6.63 on Dec 31. Today they are trading at $11.75 = $5.12 increase. - Fairfax owns 46.7 million shares = $239 million increase. - Fairfax also owns debentures ($6 conversion) or 55 million more shares = $282 million increase. - total increase = $514 million / 26.5 million shares = about $19/share pretax - this is a mark to market position I agree, Blackberry looks to be in all the right segments. It is surprising to me that someone has not tried to take it out just to get the technology and/or people. Or perhaps Chen does have the right plan and he just needs another year or two for the results to start to come through (and justifying a much higher share price).

I totally disagree, take a look at BB Ivy and it's prospects are huge!!! As I have mentioned many times, BB's issue is execution as they are all in the hot segments of the market. (EV, Data security, working from home etc...)

I recently sold out of my Chou Associates position as it has been absolutely a terrible investment and put the money into Facebook.

I purchased my stake in BB in low $4's which based on my calculation was below its liquidation value. I did not expect BB to be a leader but to grow at or near the industry average which will give me a solid overall return. With the recent alliance and co-development of BB Ivy, this IMO will be John's chen's exit strategy and in 2023 for him to cash out with a sale to Amazon or another large tech. My issue so far has been poor execution which we all can agree is the systemic issue with the company however it looks like they maybe turning a corner this year... Let's wait and see.

I recently sold Chou Associates as it has been a terrible investment over the long term and I will look at deploying the cash during the next sell-off. Here is an update on my portfolio as last time I forgot to include my ETF from my pension. Any feedback? Atlas: 25.18% Fairfax: 20.31% Trisura: 18.32% CN Rail: 9.72% Royal Bank: 7.9% S&P500 ETF: 6.41% Cash: 4.59% Blackberry: 3.95% Wells Fargo: 3.39%

I am extremely bullish on ATCO's prospects going forward. Close to 30% of my portfolio is in this position 1. Strengthening a moat around with their business being the lowest cost ship leaser 2. Improving their credit rating and the company should be investment grade over the next year 3. Acquiring ships with long term leases and with a ~20%-25% ROE (They also have one of the youngest fleets out of their competitors) 4. Atlas will be locking in long term rates at these elevated levels (Almost 15% of their fleet on contracts will roll-off in 2021 so its a huge huge tailwind) I am very curious on what David Sokal / Bing Chan can do with APR as they have highlighted that they would like to move the company from short to long term contracts in the energy space. My only negative I see is I would prefer that the company eliminates the dividend so they can continue to reinvest at very high rate of return.

What do you guys think of my portfolio? Any feedback? to give an idea on size of portfolio, it is between $500k - $2m Atlas - 27.35% Trisura - 20.10% Fairfax - 19.71% CN Rail - 10.22% Royal Bank - 8.34% Blackberry - 5.88% Chou Associates - 4.36% Wells Fargo - 3.38% Premier Diversified Holdings - 0.55%

AGT Foods eyeing return to public markets: CEO https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/agt-foods-eyeing-return-to-public-markets-ceo-1.1533015