Cardboard

Babe holds the key to your bright future: http://www.townandcountrymag.com/society/politics/amp10029952/who-is-steven-mnuchins-fiance-louise-linton/ Man, this guy is ugly. He must be really kind. Lol! Cardboard

V.POE and T.CQE Crazy valuations, crazy upside potential. Cardboard

POE It has been de-risked with the presence of hydrocarbons and within a few days or max one year, you are looking at a 10 to 100 bagger potential. If not your money back minus 10% from here? Cardboard

"08:16 AM EDT, 09/06/2017 (MT Newswires) -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Tim Syrianos said Wednesday that Toronto home sales were down nearly 35% in August compared to the previous year. The number of new listings entered into TREB's MLS System, at 11,523, was down by 6.7% year-over-year and at the lowest level for August since 2010. "Recent reports suggest that economic conditions remain strong in the GTA," said Syrianos. "Positive economic news coupled with the slower pace of price growth we are now experiencing could prompt an improvement in the demand for ownership housing, over and above the regular seasonal bump, as we move through the fall." Despite the sales decline, the average selling price for all home types combined was $732,292, a 3% rise from last year. This growth was driven by the semi-detached, townhouse and condominium apartment market segments that continued to experience high single-digit or double digit year-over-year average price increases." Cardboard

"Cardboard any thoughts on RMP Energy?" It has been a serial disappointer in terms of missed production targets. The balance sheet is fine and the price is average vs other juniors at around $30,000 per boe/d and on other metrics as well. They produce a lot of natural gas vs more valuable light oil and condensates. Their biggest issue was their decline rate at around 45%/year which is among the highest in Canada. That is a lot to offset with new production. They could hit some very good wells at Gold Creek but, keep an eye on that decline rate and the availability of midstream and shipping capacity which could also add constraints to new wells. Cardboard

T.CQE Cheapest oil & gas stock (mostly gas) in the history of the universe! Cardboard

Am I wrong to think that it is not only cash but, all your assets that are segregated from your broker if you have a cash account (not margin)? Therefore, cash accounts should have zero risk related to a broker's default. Maybe a delay in accessing your assets but, that is it? Cardboard

One thing for sure, IB has a great and very smart leader. He learned from growing up in Eastern Europe unlike some: "That is why I vote Republican on every ballot." Cardboard

Liberty you are so full of it. I can't believe that you wrote this: "I usually try not to get sucked into it, but once in a while something so crazy happens that I can't help it and fall into the vortex (presidential candidates bragging about sexual harassement and nazi rallies, that type of thing)." If the definition of crazy is someone who does not know what he is doing then you fit the mold perfectly. Cardboard

V.POE A unique opportunity to participate in a potentially large discovery in Indonesia via Repsol with limited downside to around $1. Well should be finished drilling on August 31 and then decision on further testing or not will decide the fate of this investment. Based on estimated reserves, a successful well would result in astronomical returns. Cardboard

"I may be wrong about this, but I don't want to not invest and miss out." Being afraid to miss out is symptomatic of greed. Does not sound like value investing at all and certainly does not match the first part of your post which was bang on. Cardboard

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/11/china-should-be-neutral-if-north-korea-fires-first-on-us-global-times.html The Chinese have an interesting view but, quite stupid in my opinion. I think it is quite probable that North Korea will try launching a missile or more towards Guam. However, what if there is a miscalculation and the thing hits land vs the ocean? The precision of their missiles has to be terrible at this stage. Then it is quite probable that the U.S. and South Korea would launch an all out attack on North Korea's launch sites and HQ. Some of these sites are nuclear laboratories. If you were in China, would you not be worried of some radioactive fallout due to a site being bombed even with conventional weapons? They need to start thinking about this more seriously in my opinion. It is one thing to stick it to the U.S. but, it is another to have casualties in your own country. Cardboard

Where was Obama and his minions for 8 years who kept on telling us that North Korea was years if not decades away to have a miniaturized nuke device and an ICBM capable to reach the U.S.? Was it an intelligence failure or a hide the fact success? Now less than a year after the punk has left office and we have them ready to go... Now of course we have RB and a few others bashing Trump for his words... At the very least, some attention is now being paid to this urgent issue. Leaving politics aside as I know that these guys will always adore the left and despise the right, the only way to solve the problem is to cut the head of the snake. The regime is already fighting DTEJD1997`s idea as people over there are not stupid. Intelligence does not start and stop at the demilitarized zone with South Korea. It must be obvious to the regular folks that food is hard to get by, opportunities are scarce and that the elite has a much better life. That is without any information on life elsewhere from the West or even China that has opened up significantly. And when something is illegal, you can bet that some have obtained devices to "connect" themselves to the outside world as demonstrated by Rkbabang. So it either implodes or explodes but, at some point the majority revolts and power will slip away from the few at the top. Unfortunately this takes a lot of time and a lot of suffering from the average people. The solution in my view to dramatically accelerate the overturn of the regime is for China to essentially invade North Korea with U.S. blessing. It is likely not the best outcome for the U.S. as a unified Korea under a democratic system would be the preference. Although, this opportunity was lost during the Korean war. However, for China to "manage" the Northern side would be much better than the current situation. While some think of war to get there, if done properly, this could happen relatively peacefully. Take out the few elites and China would roll in with little fighting. Unfortunately the odds of such operation are very low to inexistent unless the U.S. can convince the Chinese and also themselves. Cardboard

You have the hurricane season just getting started and it has been awfully quiet for what? 10 years now? They also just made a pretty large insurance acquisition. Who wants to bet that there is zero skeleton in the closet? I would wait for a great entry point vs one where things have to go right with investments, insurance ,etc. There is no one holding a gun to your head to buy at this point. Cardboard

"If they are great capital allocators wouldn't it make sense they would understand the situation and issue stock at such high valuation and create shareholder value this way ? Using your stock as currency is a major strength that a smart management team should know how to do. " They sure did! Fairfax was a serial acquirer or roll-up in the late 80's and 90's. They issued shares and debt to gobble up a lot of troubled insurers. As long as the magic worked of acquiring them with cheap capital and turning them around, the price to book value remained very elevated. Then in the late 90's, they bought TIG and Crum & Forster and it was the end of that fast growth era. It took them nearly 10 years to turn the company around and they only truly regained their fame after the CDS bet. Lots of shares issued during that time just to survive at very poor multiples. So looking at the historical record of Fairfax book value growth is meaningless in my opinion. You have to look at the current structure and try to figure out if they will earn a good return on equity going forward and if BVPS will grow in tandem. My biggest disappointment with Prem is not the negative bet of the last 7 years, although the structure of it and passing on to so many great purchases in 2008-2009 is hard for me to comprehend. It is more about not learning from the past and from others such as Buffett. The need for a clean balance sheet and carrying low fixed costs should be obvious. Not there yet. There is also this apparent gambler desire to repeat successful macro bets from the past. There is no need to do that and Berkshire and Markel don't engage into such speculation. Doing the boring thing everyday would get them to great results and fame but, they seem stuck into cigar butts and going for some assymetric bet. Cardboard

"They might stop making macro calls, they might not. They've made two historically, one of which was a great success and one of which was a great failure." False. They made at least 4. You have to include the bet against Japan in the late 80's and against the Nasdaq in 1998-2000. On all of them, they were early. The CDS bet was great and well publicized. A major problem with Fairfax, which I have mentioned multiple times over a long period of time now, is their love for expensive leverage and a low percentage of money invested into stocks and non-insurance businesses. There is over $6 billion of debt and preferreds vs around $10 billion invested. Contrarily to Berkshire where Buffett has had zero cost float for a very long time, very low coupon debt and is able to invest a substantial percentage of shareholders equity into stocks and non-insurance businesses earning high returns this is not the case at Fairfax. Why keeping well over $12 billion in cash and over $7 billion in low return bonds instead of repaying debt? There is already a very large amount of leverage built in due to float. Regulation is a reason why they cannot allocate more towards stocks and non-insurance businesses a la Berkshire but, I would argue that holding $6 billion in debt for essentially nothing is not contributing to better ratings which would help solve this issue. Cardboard

Fortress Paper: T-FTP Cardboard

If you guys want to take advantage of the current selling, there are a few imbeciles selling DC.PR.D and also DC.PR.B pretty hard today or into a vacuum of buyers right into the middle of the Summer. Cardboard

The "D"'s are more attractive than the "B"'s for the reasons you guys mentioned. However, both are among the very few remaining attractive preferreds with a value bend. Cardboard

With oil fundamentals finally improving and more importantly drilling steady to increasing (in meters, numbers of wells, number of rigs, well complexity) business is very good for Bri-Chem. If you think about it, the media keeps on saying that shale production is over-taking the world. If that is the case then what should happen to the business of service providers even if oil does not move up significantly in price? My May 31 post seems to be playing as indicated. Already since Q4, pricing increases were implemented and it should continue into the busy fall season in Canada. And for the U.S. it seems that at anything above $45 WTI that the current level of activity should hold. So here you have a net-net of $0.62/share with a nice chunk of shares available for $0.54 with rapidly improving fundamentals, balance sheet getting stronger with positive cash flow and no need to spend much on capex. So you can buy it and make big money when Q2 results are released by August 15 or join the growing chorus on Corner of Whiners that there are no bargains out there or the Corner of Amazon Adorers. ::) Cardboard

http://www.cnbc.com/id/104544759 Makes the Tulip bubble look pale in comparison. Cardboard

People were concerned about their upcoming debt maturity but, this indicates support from their lenders as they would never allow that if they were concerned about default or lack of refinancing availability: https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aBRY-2479698&symbol=BRY&region=C So more solid business right in the middle of the Permian: "I am all the way up!. Nothing can stop me, I am all the way up!" Cardboard

Good point Petec. It remains useful to look at P/E as a crude indicator of the number of years it takes to get your investment back. Of course, high growth makes it more complex and could make justify almost anything but, it is always after a correction that all of a sudden, the growth trajectory tends to be revised downwards. I mentioned before that the only stock from 1999-2000 that has measurably surpassed its high of that era is Amazon. Most other stocks are still below and a few such as MSFT slightly above. And the other 3 from the FANG did not exist at the time. So I find it amusing that investors today consider the FANG's as can't miss stocks despite their valuation, market caps and all operating in a cyclical business: advertising, retail, entertainment. Cardboard

At least the "hit" is where it belongs or FANG's and QQQ. Cardboard

I now only own the D's for the reason mentioned by Safety. Cardboard