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Instead of coming up with a bunch "if's" why don't you read the reports on future demand from various organizations that have actually crunched the data and took into account the impact of renewables, population growth, increased efficiency ,etc.? Then once you have done that and found a big hole in their analysis, then come lecture us. Cardboard

"I wonder what will happen if, for instance, demand falls by 5M barrels over the course of a couple of years and then keeps declining. With a commodity like oil, I feel a 5% drop in demand could nuke prices." If you were not putting out there comments such as these which indicate zero research on your part, then you would probably get a kinder response from me. Yup a lot of substance... 5 million barrels/day in a couple of years... Wow! Cardboard

First step is to stop drinking the Liberal cool-aid Richard. I know it will be hard for you, nearly impossible. Second is to look at hard numbers on supply, demand, EV impact, renewables growth, etc. We have an extensive and active thread on this website, unless you missed it, where many people have chimed in and provided ton of data from various sources. Third, make your own call. However, statements like these do not pass the smell test: "It feels like we're on the edge..." Cardboard

Canada is the same and after some overpass pieces have fallen on cars and even killed passengers a couple of years ago they have started making repairs. I would think that Detroit and all areas subject to deep freeze followed by warm summers are more subject to infrastructure damage. Steel reinforced concrete combined with large changes in temperature and salt to melt ice is not a good combination. Cardboard

https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aPMA-2568009&symbol=PMA&region=C $12,000 worth of securites sold which triggers the need for a press release or a cost of around $3,000. Smart! Cardboard

For small to mid-caps Canadian energy stocks, it is pretty much like 1933 right now. Cardboard

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"The BIR.PR.C has a YTM close to 11% (as they are puttable) that are close to that yield. There are some listed bonds with similar YTMs as well." Sure but, YTM's and/or interest yielding securities are different beasts IMO. Here you have around 11% immediate eligible dividend yield. Around 80% upside potential if these preferreds were trading at a yield of 6.5% (more in line to other preferreds based on risk, liquidity). How you translate that into a YTM is a good question but, certainly needs to be considered. These preferreds are essentially the only debt of Dundee Corp. All other debt is non-recourse except a $10 million loan by Blue Goose guaranteed by Dundee Agriculture. So if you consider them as bonds, the equivalent taxable yield puts them closer to 14%. And again, there are more than enough assets within Dundee Corp. to redeem them all at par. It is a holding company after all which is not dependent on any of its holdings to keep going. I consider this differently that say a ZAR.DB.A where your only "backing" is one operating business. Very mispriced IMO and I have been buying. Cardboard

To see the share price where it is at, along with the preferreds, and these guys doing squat is sickening. On the DC.PR.B and DC.PR.D, they are now at or below $12. The current dividend yield is respectively 11.8% and 10.6% with once again favorable tax treatment for Canadians. There is nothing close to that out there. Please chime in if you know of others. Even the Aimia preferreds trade around that price, no longer pay any dividend (accumulates and who knows if will ever be paid?) and the company is on very shaky ground. What is a bit crazy is that the DC.PR.E trade at $24.30 or pretty close to par of $25 and offer a yield of 7.7%. They did redeem about 10% of them recently and the rest are due for redemption on June 30, 2019. However, why do investors believe that they will redeem them instead of trying once again to exchange them for another serie as they did for Serie 4? And even if they have the intention to redeem them, why are investors perceiving the financial risk of that happening to be very low with them trading near par, while they discount the "B" and "D" by over half of par??? Considering that Dundee has no longer any bank debt since a little while, still resolved some issues over the past 2 years along with reduction in corporate costs and has enough assets to redeem all these preferreds, the current price definitely looks like an opportunity once again. Cardboard

If you cannot log at all into the primary account, then you cannot use the fancy trading platform. That is unless there is a way to access it directly which I don`t know how. Cardboard

To your question, one poster mentioned earlier about some sort of repeat of the 87 crash. I do believe instead that the risk is more of a repeat of 1973-1974. Why? There is a chance that Democrats retake control of both the Senate and House in the Fall. They would do all they could to impeach Trump. In any case, it would be gridlock on a scale never seen before. Then I see the probability of rising inflation as almost a given. You have wages that will see a nice bump due to tax cuts, along with very low employment, a severe underinvestment in commodities since the bust of the commodity super cycle and a Fed that is behind on rising rates IMO. Of course, not all conditions are similar but, there are some similarities. So even if they do all they can not to pop it, markets will force their hand. Cardboard

Zero problem whatsoever. One of the big 5. Cardboard

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The S&P had lost 8.1% at the low this afternoon from its recent high. The VIX has spiked from around 12 to 33! Even the long term treasuries are now catching a bid and are up after quite a beating. I would say that this qualifies as a correction even if it did not reach the 10% threshold. We may have seen the low for now. Fear has now returned to the market and with it a potential return to value from momo. Cardboard

That is the thing I don't get with this latest excuse: I never had a problem in 2008/2009. Talk about liquidity events! And now you have a few stocks such as ACB and WEED with around 100,000 trades/day each and everything comes crashing down? In an up move for these stocks? There was a minor lock-up today but, it has cleared in a few minutes in a really nasty market for these stocks. So they must have made some changes. Still crazy. At the very least, halt trading in the ones causing issues. Cardboard

The one who acted the most rationaly, was this gentlemen who made 12,000% last year with cryptos. He said that he bought a beach house. If he sold enough cryptos to buy it cash, then he is guaranteed that this asset will remain. Very smart move. And I would even encourage him to buy a Ferrari or another property if he can. Doesn't mean that he has to dump all his cryptos. However, to recognize that you have made a terrific gain or a lifetime event and to do all you can to at least keep some is smart. Enjoy life! No one will care if you end up being worth $20 million instead of $100 million or your track record. this next 5 bagger can easily be made over a 10 year period by smart investing. However, going back from $20 to $2 million in short order can be dramatic. Sure if it continues going up after having sold, it will hurt psychologically. Fear of missing out or FOMO again. However, trust me, it hurts much more to see something vaporize. As investors, we should never go all-in. Whenever it gets above 20 or 30% of one's assets it is cause for serious investigation. It is a very different situation than being the boss of a company that you started. And even these guy diversify when cash becomes available. Cardboard

I am now having trouble logging and getting quotes from my Canadian trading platform. For weeks, Canadian banks have been apparently trying to fix/patch problems due to high trading volume on pot stocks and apologizing to their customers!!! Never liable however. You gotta be kidding me! How is it that the same platforms were "capable" to handle Nortel Networks volumes and all the other stocks in that Internet bubble era and that 18 years later, the platforms are unable to handle the volume from a handful of companies? 18 years has to be an eternity in the world of software development... It is a complete joke! Cardboard

If you mean the market sure but, the coins??? It was really really frothy back in December. The sky was the limit. Everything eventually pulls back and it sure did. Those who got out after a 19 bagger during the year can now get back in at $9,000 or less than half price. That is real dough. Amazing volatility. However, for those who did get out, I am not sure that they are that inclined to get back in yet. And that is how bear market typically happen or a return of skepticism. The fear of missing out or FOMO, as described this week in their letter by pretty good fund managers in Canada from the Dark Horse Fund, has been all the rage. Valuation, yardsticks, dividends, discounted cash flow analysis, who cares? Is it going up and fast? I want some! If not I will miss out on some juicy, easy money :( Cardboard

It is now happening in almost every area: Bitcoin is down over 50% since its peak. Actually my timing to warn people on this site was near perfect in December. You can thank me later if you got out then. 8) Canadian pots stocks hit their peak in January and have fallen very hard today. U.S. treasuries are now coming down with the 30 year having reached 3%. The chart looks pretty bad. The S&P was in a near perfect parabolic ascent and it is now breaking. QQQ, FXI (China), it is all looking broken. The VIX has gone back up a bit or getting closer to 15. The last bubble that has not popped yet seems to be the Amazon and Facebook of the world. However, they don't seem too confident with a drop of 4.2% for AMZN heading into the close, followed by some relief hoorah with the earnings, or lack thereof, or up 6.3% in the after-hour. Will it last? While I have no crystal ball, the history books are pretty clear: almost all (if not all?) parabolic ascents end up in tears. At the very least, I think that we are due for some sideways action. Many people have now been hurt and this is not typically conducive to more greed. Cardboard

It trades at around 1.25 times book or already a premium being paid for the structure that I have described. However, Dazel and others seem to think it is worth a lot more hence why I used arbitrarily 2 times book. I see people on this website being quite critical of hedge fund and mutual fund managers. Why not the same amount of skepticism when it comes to Fairfax or Markel? And to say that Fairfax should trade higher or at a higher multiple simply because Markel trades there is not sound analysis. Maybe that Markel is just overvalued? I would say that one should be willing to pay a premium for these types of businesses only if they generate pre-tax income from their insurance business alone and the leverage that they are employing is so attractive that it generates outsized returns with average investment performance. Then don't forget about the impact of double taxation or taxes that the corporation will pay then you also. Not the case when you buy a fund or pick your own investments. Cardboard

Who has told you that employees are demoralized because the stock price is not skyrocketing or moving higher, faster than Markel? It is up around 6% over the last 12 months + for those who own it as employees they just received a $10 U.S. dividend cheque + for the vast majority, their salary and bonuses eclipse any value that they get from the stock. Now as an investment, it is trading well above book value. Earnings are among the most erratic you will find. They have a nice defensive position but, last time they did and had an opportunity to deploy, they did a combination of sitting on their hands and investing some in USB, JNJ and a few others only to dump them after some appreciation. Then they shorted the market for years and bought Blackberry, SandRidge, Greek stocks and what else? Should I be skeptical about what they will do next time? And he can buyback all the stock he wants above book value, it won't change a thing or the issue which I mentioned for years or a lack of pre-tax operational earnings when you add in all costs: they lose money everytime when there is no capital gains. And because of that and insurance regulation, too little of book value is actually invested in common stocks and businesses which can earn more than treasuries. Think about it this way. You have a brokerage account and you use some margin. However, your interest cost is higher than the dividends and interest that you receive on your holdings. So the only upside possible is through capital appreciation and as we should all know, this is very erratic. Would you pay twice the book value for that brokerage account? Then on top of that, they have restrictions on where they can put the money which you don't and have a complicated business to manage. When the earnings from that business are added to the interest and dividends, it still generates a loss like that brokerage account. Cardboard

It is a good catch Rod. So, it has added around $0.18/share to NAV since Sep 30. Moreover, they also own 228 million shares of DST which has doubled or another $0.17/share to NAV. Unfortunately, none of that gets recognized or discussed. All we hear is about Blue Goose and the CEO who has been replaced by his brother due to a concussion... And nothing being done to make value surface. No share buyback, no preferreds buyback which are trading at $12-13 or half of par. No wonder that we see no insider buying! Cardboard

Sounds awesome for someone who sends private messages to others, who he doesn't agree with, and calls them "douche bag" and the like. Cardboard

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Horgan is the B.C. NDP leader. it is the 2nd party in the province. Essentially, the guy stole power by associating with the Greens (3rd party) would had a few seats to gain a majority over the Liberals who had won the election. This association was based on following the Greens agenda which included stopping the construction of Site "C" hydro dam, blocking the TransMountain pipeline expansion and basically eliminating any LNG plant project on the West Coast. The NDP promised the same things during the election. Maybe that the guy got a home visit from higher powers or his party finally came to grip that the Province needs to do more than attracting people from China to Vancouver real estate but, Site "C" is now going to be completed, TransMountain should proceed and he is now in Asia looking for LNG investors. Regarding interesting natural gas companies BIR and BNP are very cheap and interesting IMO. BXE and CQE are two others that are much cheaper but, also much riskier. However, the entire sector has been trashed so you could look at: PEY, TOU, CR, AAV, PONY and many others. Cardboard