SharperDingaan

Quite a few would quietly advise that much of this is a health care system badly in need of reform, and a temporary demographic bump in the number of retirees. Too many communities spread too far apart (geography), too many restrictions on who can do what where (the profession), and a lack of industrial policy (same quality of care in each province). Australia has the Flying Doctor service; similar geography issue, yet Canada doesn't ? Both countries have parallel aboriginal/indigenous/first nations medical traditions; and integration remains a problem. Practice in remote/rural communities shunned by many; yet student loan forgiveness remain untied to service. Too much load on too few, driving burnout; even that minimum wage 'no think' job is now often a better work/life choice. Absent national drug addiction policy. A Flying Doctor service across rural and northern Canada, with student loan forgiveness linked to service; could expect to attract young and adventurous pilots and medics, in droves .... particularly if also paired up with fire fighting and Canada's expanded military. Real world, hands on experience; feeding into heath care, aviation, and the military. Simply decriminalising addiction Canada wide, and letting addicts use clean needles/free drugs under supervision, will both save a lot of lives and diminish much or the revolving door. Just throwing more and more money against a problem isn't enough. SD

There are reports in various places that the US SPR is intentionally going to be drained flat, and potentially disbanded (no refill). Future reliance placed on a domestic ramp up of production when required, as is the case in Canada. Significant coming change for NA if it turns out to be true. SD

You can have all the advantages in the world ..... but without independent and high quality guidance, it is pretty much wasted. Most so when in your late 20's, and through most of your 30's; and particularly when getting that advice is often expensive .... but high value add. Daughter has the looks, wants to be a model, and has been successful to date? ... but its a time limited engagement? Maybe it's worth your while to have her talk to those that advise the madame's, trophy wives, and the likes of a Madonna, Paris Hilton, Lady Ga Ga, Taylor Swift, etc ???? Level the playing field . Same thing for those sons/nephews who may be quite the catch , and those thinking of professions/trades careers . Be the engineer, dentist, trades person employee .... but also aim to own the company and/or the practice. Long term thinking, wealth building, and pays for itself if it saves a divorce. What's in your head, not what's in your bank account. Everything else pretty much takes care of itself. SD

We have been out of PD for some time; switched to a bar-bell between ESI, and a significant position in a junior driller. Periodic swing trades around ESI to continually raise the house money funded portion. The junior driller as another life changing sidecar if it works out; a tax write-off if it doesn't. The junior preferred over options, to avoid the constant time erosion. Within the WCSB, drilling is consolidating into fewer players with better tech and bigger machines. Less movement between sites (Mullen Transport); as there is now more drilling from common pads, over both longer lengths, and different depths. Driller expertise, site experience, and efficiencies speeding up completion times as well; obsolesce shrinking the useful life of older rigs (PD). At current strip, it is a lot more attractive to grow production via bolt-on field acquisition and consolidation; then produce/drill the bigger holding more efficiently afterwards. Old collection facilities, and old wells often re-purposed at low cost (via old rigs) for water-flood/CO2 injection to lower depletion rate. Sadly, there is little incentive to aggressively grow via the drill bit; until better visibility around the Iran War, and new BC tidewater egress becomes available. Hence .... a quiet summer for the drillers; fall/winter a little busier should M&A step up. Good luck! SD

+1 Once the mortgage and car is paid off, you're just left with insurance and living expenses .... not that much for most folks. While medical and vacation will increase that, most of it is also discretionary. That 500K stash, plus a paid off house; more than enough for most contingency purposes. Leaving things for the kids ? ..... you already have; it's what's in their heads, net of student loans paid off. After that, you're helping grand kids via seeded accounts, and 15 yrs+ runway ahead of them; not much required. Not the fear put out by the industry, to get you to save . SD

Money is the servant, not the master. Of course; when you don't have it, it doesn't feel that way at all. Everyone will have different priorities for their first wealth dollars; most of it a function of debt level, stage of life, etc. All goes well, over time the potholes get filled, and you end up with a stash to fund 'retirement' .... however that looks. After that, wealth starts getting toxic, particularly if your circumstances are also very different from many of those around you. Safely spending the stash is actually one of the harder things to do. No drugs, flashy cars, fast women, excessive booze, multiple houses, etc. ... removes a lot of the available avenues. There is also only so much travel one can do before it gets boring, and 'helping the kids' before it starts creating dependencies. You need hobbies. Evolution. SD

Every pension fund in the land is professionally managed. All investment opportunities compete, and funds are allocated to the most lucrative first ..... until the capital available has been fully invested. Governments can still do their own pet projects, but if the expected returns aren't competitive; it's their money, not the funds. All investments are about optimising operational efficiencies to maximise return. Most would expect that a new dollar into Canadian resource extraction (o/g, mining, farming, etc.) vs an alternative industry, will produce a higher return on investment, simply because of economies of scale. Most would also expect that the alternative would be primarily defence related industries, as Canada moves towards its 5%/yr NATO commitment. Pretty much what we are actually seeing. Doesn't mean you have to be in one of these industries; your project just has to be as/more lucrative. If you can put large scale greenhouses into arctic communities that can grow veggies/fruits competitively throughout the year; you are probably a very good candidate. We have the technology, and midnight sun for near 6 months a year ... SD

So many possibilities ...... Early days yet, but all positive ... otherwise the UAE would not be doing it. Same as in the mafiosi; whether it's everyone in one family, or spread over 5 families, the objective is sustainable maximum profitability. The composition/number of families always changing, as competition does its thing . Next up ..... Iranian uranium under the Russian nuclear umbrella and control. Israel, as a member of one of the mafiosi families . Opportunities. SD

Subject to the details emerging, this could be a very good deal; Assume a medium-term bond; cashable any time, principal guaranteed by the BoC, tax-free floating rate coupon equal to the inflation rate. Canada essentially guaranteeing the purchasing power over the term of the bond. Assume annual bonus payments, based on portfolio performance. Investors choice as to either a tax advantaged cash payment, or additional bonds at the original terms. Higher returns, the longer one opts to not receive cash bonuses; integration with TFSA accounts. Assume restricted to Canadian residents only; CPR type nation building owned by Canadians, for Canadians. Foreign participation limited to other vehicles, at commercial rates. Government of Canada, BoC, and Canada's pension funds as your partners; seat at the table, quality independent professional investment management. Lowest risk possible. No longer governments making the case for energy corridors; everybody in Canada also benefiting from the employment and returns on their money. Game changing. SD

All good responses! Just keep in mind that for the most part ... they ain't Joe Six-Pack Unstated, but sadly very true; there is also a growing need to keep yourself grounded. The magnitude of all these additional returns can quickly exceed the average salary of those around you; living very well, when many around you are severely struggling, needs to be managed. SD

Draw downs are part of investing; you can either attempt to hide under a rock (stay wealthy), or embrace them (build wealth). On the aggressive end, and building wealth, we assume a 1/3 equity draw-down in any given year (portfolio level), NO intervening sales, NO change in living requirements, and $X in new buys at discounted prices. To achieve it, means a significant treasury/bond holding, and acceptance of the high opportunity cost that comes with it; you need that high liquidity, and high borrow capacity, as the intent is to borrow against it vs sell (tax considerations). BTC, and now maybe Canada's new sovereign wealth fund, added primarily to reduce the opportunity cost (portfolio drag). It makes volatility your friend, and swing trades a largely risk free ROE booster. Time between an additional investment that reduces the cost base by 20%, and a subsequent sale at the lower cost base to recover the investment; has zero tax impact and is often surprisingly short. The additional share count ain't bad either. SD

The near term bear case is lower prices relative to yesterday; at best, maybe -10%, and for a very short time only. Simply 'cause it will take time for already loaded ships already in the SOH to reach their destinations .... and until they arrive, everybody has to continue bidding up for the very limited non SOH supply. The longer term bear case is lower prices from permanent substitution and new non SOH supply. Years away, as it will take time to build out the required incremental egress infrastructure ... for supply to again overwhelm demand. The MOMO bear case is a panic selloff that drags o/g down with it. Most everyone would simply use the volatility to rotate into o/g, pushing hard against the selloff. SD

Even those countries with mandatory military service, don't permit the use of guns as the US does. It's the US choice, it comes with consequences, and the resultant violence is an accepted part of living in the US. We are all free to live elsewhere .... and many do. Political affiliation is labelling; to sell an agenda, execute an AB market test, deflect questioning, etc. Notable .. that even the "shooter" thought security incompetent (only focused on new vs 'existing' entrants) ... and that a state sponsored professional hit could well have been successful .... oops It should not be surprising that a great many Americans would prefer Trump dead .... it's just deemed 'unpatriotic' to hear it. Dependant upon how this incident is 'spun', going forward ... there may well be a lot more. A strong enough surge, may even change the Orange Boy calibration. A great many Germans wanted Hitler dead during WW II. A great many citizens also wanted Iraq's Hussein, and Iran's Khomeini dead. As well as a large portion of the UK population that wanted the Queen dead ..... shortly after the death of Diana. It is routine; and when possible, liabilities get removed. Trump goes; the war ends, the troops come home, gas prices come down, and maybe the Republicans even win the congress again. The man does not have to be walking. SD

What the "shooter" thinks, and what actually happens ...... SD

Same as the drug trade; there is always fuel available ..... it's just the price and volume required SD

Pretty sure I saw an Orange Boy assassination AB test, disguised as a ballroom fund raiser, at the correspondent's dinner last night. Not really a real threat. Yet the shooter still gets through security ... with both a handgun AND a shotgun ???? Did the attempt tick the polling numbers up ? and raise ballroom funds ? (by how much, and in which segments). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A/B_testing Have to think that Orange Boy's 'value' is being calibrated. Does it need another Kennedy moment to win the White House ? or will a non-life-threatening wounding do it ? Long straddles .... becoming more valuable. SD

" So what is the fair estimate for: 1) 2026, 2) 2027 Is it the futures prices or dated Brent or somewhere in between or we'll see? " There isn't one. If there was, there wouldn't be the extreme price differences between Dubai crude and spot (inability to deliver, vs the quality and transportation cost differentials). Best estimate is the current futures curve; utter sh1te Actual vs future prediction, is well known for its inaccuracy ... particularly around oil. Story lines need numbers ! .... give me a f****** number to sell Or .... recognise the opportunity in busted story telling SD

The US SPR does not have to be refilled immediately; it often goes years between refills, and is typically done to bail out domestic overproduction. Bit different elsewhere where a target 'days of consumption' is maintained, with time between refill often reflecting the issues of the day. Higher oil prices, relative to the USD 65 that WTI was at pre the Iran war ? Yes. Relative to the USD 110 that WTI was recently trading at? No. The primary shock is that higher crude prices are NOT going to be just a once and done by 2026 year-end (arbitrary date). They are going to still be here late into 2027; perhaps even beyond, and not restricted to just crude .... across the entire petro-chemical chain as well. The secondary shocks are the coming changes in energy investment; security of o/g supply high on the list, electric substitution for o/g right behind it. Russian and Gulf supply diversification, windmills over gas imports, electric cars over ICE. Very good for both Canada and China, not so much for the US. To save on transportation costs, trucking is permanently moving to gas/hybrid and driver-less. The most reliable manufactures of those vehicles are not American, and China is coming up very quickly. Shocks are coming to US manufacturing as well. But .... no problem .... new all time highs routinely hit every month SD

The war will continue until a political solution is found; ceasefires just temporarily 'ice' the problem, not resolve it. The underlying problems themselves can go on for decades; Palestine/Israel being a poster child. The US fleet/air power is ineffective, and stuck in the Gulf until there is a solution. Everyday the midterms get closer and the predictions worse. The greatest energy supply shock in history gets worse. The solution is 3rd party negotiation. It will take time, but the SOH/Red Sea will reopen, and all parties will not get what they wanted. Who won/lost is just spin for the home supporters; tradeable headlines. The conflict has been sold as the Trump/Netanyahu war on Iran; both of them old men, in need of the war continuing over the near term in order to remain in power. Either of them gets assassinated tomorrow, the war is over; turnabout. The mystery is whether the two Ceaser's get taken out by their own people, or somebody else. SD

Nothing wrong with starting at a marketing podcast .... just make sure that you also verify against independent sources (audit). Most would look to the local industry publications in those industries of interest, talk to the provincial/federal trade reps, and contract a researcher for a few weeks to pull together a dossier. The DD should tie. Good provincial/federal trade reps will sing praises, but they will also facilitate one-on-one discussions with senior managements, and those administering various trade improvement programs. The buy a pair of execs at XYZ company an (arranged) dinner, &/or get an overview of governmental FX and investment incentives aligned with what you hope to do. SD

+1 At present, all west coast tidal water pipe is pretty much full; additional oil exports for the next year or so will primarily be via chemical addition (drag reduction), higher pressure (higher throughput), and harbour dredging (tanker loading > 70% capacity). New pipe construction (Sunrise), is roughly 18-24 months away from name plate delivery. Rail isn't really viable until dredging is complete, and tankers can load at 100%; until then ... it's better to construct additional west coast tidewater storage that can be rented out. Thereafter, replacement and up-size of the existing 1957 TMP pipe (existing corridor), and development of new rail, pipe, and port (infrastructure, icebreaker's, etc.) at Churchill. SD

Sadly, one has to be cautious as to how one makes use of it. Predatory trading is not a good look SD

Newspapers are just tribal propaganda distributors. Owned by the tribe, to support the tribe, using whatever manipulation is expected to achieve the desired result. Echo chambers, pushing agenda's. Same as politics, it's a great business ! The more propagandists, the more noise, and the more each tribe needs to pay to get its 'message' across. The more money flowing in, the more for 'sticky' fingers, and the less scrutiny! There is a reason why dictators quickly eliminate competing propagandists, and permanently. Everything works wonderfully ..... so long as consumers always remain distracted, and seldom question. Not so much .... when the ringmaster looses control of the show ... and the random 'permanent accidents' start to happen. Apparently, much of it done by via proxy's, very good at what they do SD

You might want to keep in mind that US denial is extreme at the moment. The greatest oil shock in history .... yet new index records are routinely reset every month, and there is minimal expected inflation from this? Global reserves have already been drawn down in a big way, and it will take a while to substitute electricity for gasoline. SD

Congratulations! Enjoy every moment, share the chocolate cigars around, and remember that they grow up very quickly. Babies are also a lot more robust than you might think ... should you accidentally happen to drop them SD