SharperDingaan

What have you got against simply paying down your debt today (mortgage, credit line, cards, etc.)? and re-borrowing in 18 mo. when the money is needed. Zero risk involved, instant savings in after-tax dollars, very simple to execute. Worst case, you pay a few bucks to have a lawyer draw up an agreement between the source of the money & yourself (eliminate co-mingling issues) Sure, it's not sexy, but that's not a requirement. The only people who will be PO'd are your banker and broker, because you deprived them of commission on new business. Shame SD

The choice really revolves around whether the new car is going to be electric or gasoline. After that there are lots of choices. Today the real value of leasing, is ability to give the car back. Rid yourself of the old EV tech in X years. Rid yourself of the very real possibility that in X years, the resale value of the SUV has dropped like a brick. When every 2nd person on your street either has an EV or is thinking of getting one - to persuade someone to take yesterdays gas guzzling SUV you are going to have to drop the price. Manufacturer/dealer leases are designed to move metal, the aim is to break-even net of distribution costs. Most are poorly designed, easily exploitable, and wide open to an 'enterprizing lad' with a head for numbers. A fleet manager will be more than happy to create 'a fleet of one' for you, complete with fuel and oil card to track maintanance. Create your own company, deduct the car lease and office costs against WFH income 2 days/wk Point? It's not just wheels, there are a whole suite of other considerations as well. SD

We drive a Toyota 2021 Rav4 AWD Hybrid. Dirt cheap, drives great, and is basically an electrified old Rav4. Costs maybe $30 to fill up the gas tank. Very wierd! SD

Lease a new hybrid EV from a Toyota, Volvo, etc for 4-5 yrs. Interest rates are low, gas costs will be 40-60% less, insurance will be less, no need to install/find charging stations, and no battery replacement/disposal problem. 5 years out both the tech and the deals will be a lot better than they are today. Stick to what you need, know your budget, change depreciation rate to get to it. Most times, you will avoid 'too much car', and make a profit at end of lease (buy out at BV and resell at a higher price). The dealer will also make more from the deal over the life of the lease. SD

It is pretty clear that the intent is to merge BB into someone else for stock. It wll eventually happen, but until then - welcome to the volatility. SD

Without high rises, It's very hard to add material volumes of new housing in the major cities. So ... if you have a sprawling house in such a place, its price is very unlikely to decline - if only because it could be easily demolished and 2 replacement new and more modern/smaller ones built on the land instead. A high volume high rise is a ghetto, a bottom of the market feeder that depends on ongoing in-bound migration. New builds have an advantage, but its a devaluing asset. A low volume high rise is a jewel box. At few floors, a 1/4 floor per aprtment, and multiple elevators, it's a gilded bird cage popuated with rich people. The name of the game is price insensitive condo fees, and cachet. Obviously, if you can own a REIT full of bird cages in the major cities, you should do well! SD

Canada votes on new management Sep-20, housing is an issue, lots of promises are being made. Most would expect the Liberals to prevail, either as the leaders of a continuing minority government, or the majority government. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-housing-plan-1.6151154 "To reduce mortgage costs, a Trudeau-led government would force the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation to slash mortgage insurance rates by 25 per cent — a $6,100 savings for the average person. The Liberals are also proposing a sort of "rent-to-own" program, with $1 billion in new funding to "create a pathway for renters in five years or less."" As was common in many parts of Canada during the 50's-80's, the government bought your house and essentialy leased it to you via a capital lease over a 30 year period, at a fixed rate of 1-2%. At the end of 30 years you owned the house, every 're-set' period (typically 5 years) the lessee had the opportunity to buy out the lease. Whenever the house was resold, proceeds paid off the lease, and the balance was yours. It built a lot of houses, and put the parents of boomers on the property ladder. Put a program like this in the housing market, and housing is not going to be an 'issue' anymore. The value of residential REIT oligopolies go through the roof SD

In our neighbourhood bungalow-loft condominium prices have jumped 30-40% in <5 months, with sales routinely going > ask, at 1.2M+ in < 3 days. Why? 'Cause they are cheap, versus immediate neighbours where prices are both higher, and you have to maintain your own property. Most of these transactions are all equity, the prevailing interest rates is a non-issue. Condo fees vs commuting cost are a far bigger issue. Condo fees on bungalow condominiums are often < 50% than those on high rise condominiums. Typically you will get 5-10x more space, 1/2 the monthly upkeep cost, others do the work for you - but it is 45-minutes+ to the financial district via fast train. A young person might commute 5 days/week in favour of better career prospects/more 'facetime', but most others are going to commute 3 days/week and WFH the remaining two. THAT is what living/working in the fashionable district needs to overcome; some headwind! REITs are no different to bonds. Interest rates go up, the value of the asset goes down. The property manager tries to compensate by leasing up, and/or charging higher rent, both of which are limited. Where practical, demolish the building and start again with a better asset. NY focused REITS need folks to return to the city, and housing prices to remain high - folks have to rent 'cause they can't afford to buy, and folks funneled onto a limited supply to raise rents. SD

At present Canada (total) is doing around 950-1000 new Covid cases/day on 37.7M people (2020 pop). The UK is doing 20,000/day on 67.9M people (2020 pop). The UK covid cases/day is flattening, and when adjusted for population, is 10x the size of the Canadian count. Not a good/bad thing, but EVIDENCE that Canada has its act together better than most Canada is voting Sep-20 on new management, following which there will be major decisions. 1) Most would expect mandatory double-vaccination for ALL federal government employees. ALL staff in a medical facility &/or a university vaccinated, not just most of them. Staffing improvements, systemic reduction in burnout, and (hospital) staff re-assignment elsewhere to reduce backlogs. All good. 2) Most would expect a debt term-out via a material bond issuance. 'Green' bonds paying for energy/infrastructure improvements, via a refinancing of existing monetary issuance. Yield curve change comparable to the economic impact when the infrastructure was first built. All good 3) Most would expect introduction of a $CAD CBDC, and widespread federal support/integration of de-fi accross the Canadian supply-chain. Fundamental game changer, introduced via the financial serrvices first. Very, very good. 4) Recognition of generational shift. Planning for todays 20-30, and 30-40 yr olds, NOT yesterdays mom/dad or gran/grandpa. $10/day daycare, women in the workforce, Me To, BLM, outlook/attitude change, etc. Proactive change management, very good, but longer term. Lobbyists will swear their individual case up/down, but with change like this; there is clear preference for stable government (majority vs minority rule). All good. Similar processes repeating themselves elsewhere in the world as well. Covid management is just the litmus test. If you like what you see, check under the hood. SD

Regulators have long taken the approach that use of IT is a business decision, NOT a regulatory one. Regulatory involvement is limited to setting/enforcing rules of engagement, and change leadership. Financial services as it exists today, is all about intermediation; whereas defi systematically/permanently eliminates intermediation. Status quo is not a viable option. Currently, the best defi platform in the world is a dominant social media netwok, NOT a largely domestic megabank. The best competitive solution is GSIB/DSIB access to a global central bank payment network that uses CBDC. Pay with a CBDC vs a Facebook Libra, because the guarantor is both better and the transaction costs less. Megabank either does what it is told, when it is told, or goes out of business. A market, versus regulatory solution. SD

Vacination does not make you immune, it just makes you less likely to get it, a more effective carrier of it, and less sick if you contract it. A group of double vaxxed in close circulation with no masks are 'safe' as they probably will not get it, and only mildly if they do - despite all being carriers. An unvaxxed, or partially vaxxed person joins this amicable group; they become a statistic. People like to congregate, and if it seems safe .... So what? 90%+ of new covid cases are amongst the unvaxxed, or partially vaxxed. Like yeast in a sugar solution, the remaining 'food' (the unvaxxed/partially vaxxed) burns through at an accelerating rate as the quantity of live yeast (the vaxxed/recovered) continues to grow. In the final stages we see a rapid ramp up of infection (new daily Covid cases), new vaxxing, and death. Not a lot different to what we are seeing today in many US states. From an investment POV? Sudden partial lockdowns temporarily knocking down commodity prices, followed by rapid rises as the unvaxxed pools are used up. Reopening of travel/migrant labour, and new rounds of Covid in the developing world amongst the unvaxxed. Each round having less effect on commodity prices, unless it is a commodity primarily mined/grown (supply chain effect) in the developing world. Obviously, NOT what many people want to hear. SD

Earlier this year we sold our BTC, parked the cash, and took a deliberate time-out. Severing the crypto links by exiting both the BTC and CME option markets at the same time. No noise, plus time to research/think ... is a wonderful antidote. CBDC is rabidly toxic to most stable coin, and rapidly approaching. Simply pair a CBDC with a BTC or ETH, and you bypass the vast majority of the stable coin market. The market de-risks as CBDC displaces the towering heaps of shite coin, and the shite coin sells off into a very limited market. Crypto exchanges/tethers implode, developer cash dries up, and the great 'burn off' begins. Not too many tears likely either. Of course, drain any swamp and all ships upon it will fall; including BTC and ETH. Perfectly good coin becomes widely available, at a healthy discount, and in great quantity! Let proof of concept do its thing, and live happily ever after Hopefully, a 'time out' that pays for itself many times over... SD

You aren't going to correctly predict the market. If you could, you wouldn't be poor - and posting on this board! For the next few months, the 4th wave will very likely keep a lid on economic growth. As the vaxxed remain asymptomatic and approach 3 of every 4 people in the G7, the shrinking pool of unvaxxed are contracting in increasing numbers. Vaxxing continues to be resisted, and it's unlikely to change anytime soon. Most would expect rapidly rising covid numbers to remain a real drag on economic activity for quite some time. However markets are where they are today, because THIS time around the G7 economies are NOT locking down in response to Covid. Growth largely depends upon how rapidly the unvaxxed either vax, contract the Delta variant, or croak; same dynamic whether in a G7, or some other country - difference is the number of dead. People gotta live, and they gotta work to do it; so buy the consumables History suggests we can be pretty sure we're entering a period of unprecedented, unpredictable change. It also suggests that the popular (market) views of the time are primarily denial, and that the winners were those who thought for themselves. The same thing repeated itself in the US, with the collapse of the housing market and the start of the Great Financial Crises. An immensely profitable period for some of us This thread evidences the market fear ... tell me what I should do! Clearly, the game beaters have been doing their jobs well! Now it's just a matter of driving critters through the traps; most would prefer not to be the critter. Opportunity is knocking. SD

"Nwoodman's graphs upthread show FFH trading at or above BV for most of the time since 2013. Nothing to do with a trading move. " Yes .... but were they trading at/better than the MULTIPLE of B/V that their peers were trading at, at the time? Sadly, not so much. SD

Granted, even a broken clock will be right twice a day; but it doesn't mean keeping time by it. At times the market price may reach/exceed fair value, but it's more via the market trading a momo trend versus a fundamental valuation approach. Agreed they have many investments, but it's largely the same story with all of them. The company either thinks they are worth a lot more than the market does (time difference), therefore no value add. The market expects a transaction in XYZ, and values in anticipation of a transaction that the company ultimately never does (execution difference); Blackberry and Resolute are just more recent examples. To benefit, you really have to round trip and not buy and hold - new names, same as the old names, but the game pretty much remains the same. Just a different way of looking at it. Every time the market goes manic on one of their investments, it's another round trip opportunity SD

The reality is that FFH is NOT bought to get rich - it is bought to STAY rich. An investor simply hopes to make more than the index, and choses FFH as a diversifier to the Sched-A banks, BAM, SU, etc. - wealth made slowly via compounding. Nothing wrong in this, but recognize that it is what you are buying. FFH is never going to get 'full market value'. It is just too complex for most to process, there are too many dung heaps, and the industry is too esoteric. It is just 'the nature of the business', but every quarter there will be some negative to latch onto and sell down on. Like it or not, Mr Market is a short term manic, not a long term builder. However, the industry seasonality and dung heaps DO create periodic opportunities. You get rich by trading around them, and taking your gains off the table. At $CAD 525 a +/- sentiment driven round trip of 5% will produce roughly CAD 5.25K/100 shares, and take 4-8 weeks. An average two trips/yr will buy you a nice vacation after tax. Investors are not employees, you do not make your wealth by working a lifetime for the company. The reality is that an ivestors holding period is a lot shorter than a working lifetime, hence the need for a different approach. Different strokes. SD

You might want to be out of stablecoin until the discussion paper is released https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-brainard-digital/feds-brainard-cant-wrap-head-around-not-having-u-s-central-bank-digital-currency-idUSKBN2F1038 SD

It's more like Etherium creates a new standard that works with CBDC. Stablecoin itself is just another currency pegged to something (USD). However, national currencies have a CB defending the peg, whereas a stablecoin just has a pile of collateral valued according to the buoyancy of the crypto market. A great deal of money can be made if you can break a CB's currency peg (Ie: Soros, BoE). Breaking a stable coin peg is a lot easier, and only a little less profitable SD

Shiller has some very big holes in it .... For Shiller to work, the vast majority of new share issuances has to be via the market (therefore at market price). Utter crap!. Employee stock options do NOT settle at the market price on the day the option is excercized, they settle at strike prices settled YEARS earlier, and there are a LOT of these spread over a LOT of different companies in the index. Oops! A great many acquistions are paid for via equity issuances that by-pass the market entirely (o/g). Immediatley income accretive, assets increase, equity increases, almost all ratios improve, yet the market recognizes none of of it at the time. Often worsened when the positive changes are so extreme that analysts dont trust their models, and therefore don't update untill quarterlies have been released. Oops! Sure, when Shiller first published, the index may have been relevant - but that is getting on 20 YEARS ago. Today it is a completely different world. SD

'Every dog has its day. What are you investing in today, so as to be where you would like to be in 3-4 years?' Tombstone marker. It is periodically usefull to side-pocket 'vintages'. Simply because current/near term investments in portfolio A, and the 3-4 year stuff in portfolio B; require very different approaches and controls. Most people will also perform far better if their original capital is kept within some range - typically the cummulative initial contribution to portfolio B. Total cost of portfolio B, MINUS round trip gains invested in additional shares, about equal to the optimal capital limit. Thereafter, dividends/sale proceeds pulled out and either reinvested in FI, repatriated, or fed into the next 'vintage' Repatriation to repay debt, simply being FI investment done a dfferent way. Different approach. SD

Just to add some take-aways. Concentration. 20% on purchase (day-1) is the size of the pile of sh1te you bought. 20%, 9-months out, means your pile has grown at the same rate as the rest of the portfolio (ie: you've failed). You took on risk, the pile has to grow FASTER than the portfolio; all else equal - 9-months out, it should be MORE than 20% of the porfolio. Day-1 weights understate. Most times you are going to have to average down, materially raise the concentration, and pay for it with margin. After which you will sell enough at your now lower cost-base to repay the margin; many months from now. Typically NOT a topic in any 'diversification' discussion! Round trips. A trading position allows you to round trip, and the gains can be taken out in EITHER cash, or a HIGHER share count. The same investment divided over more shares, lowers the cost base. Withdrawing cash lowers exposure to the name, and enables deployment into the 'next' idea. Every dog has its day. What are you investing in today, so as to be where you would like to be in 3-4 years? Ideally tommorrows stars are todays dogs, and cheap! Hence your 'new' 20% positions should really be in these, they should be paid for out of recycled risk capital, and existing positions funded from house money. Obviously, some trick! Good luck. SD

The NA and Asian FANGs are just pushing the CBs to 'get off the pot'. Either issue CBDC soon, or we allow payment in BTC and enable a bypass of your currency controls. If Amazon can accept BTC, and Asian counterparts are not allowed to - Asias economies will go into recession as business moves to Amazon. The obvious target is China, and acceleration of the CBDC solution to keeping the Yuan and Renminbi seperate. Work with the rest of the world or do yout own thing; your choice, but the clock is ticking. A little anarchy is not a bad thing! SD

The more concentrated you are, the less 'buy and hold' you are - as every concentration is a core position, PLUS a trading position. Margin used to work down average costs, and paid down from trading gains. Very few people are immune to the excitement when their 'conviction' is playing out. You have the trading position for a reason. And while the ideas are rare ..... they are a lot more frequent than one might think. SD

And it all ASSUMES the securities will NOT be frozen, should there be an 'event'. Any kind of 'liquidity' restriction (frozen account) and they break-the-buck. Do exactly what the US Fed tells you to, when they tell you, or they break you? Not quite the investment that you thought you had?? SD

A stable coin blow up is pretty much the definition of a grey swan event https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/grey-swan.asp 'In other words, it is a risk with a potentially large impact but a low perceived likelihood of happening. Because there is a slight chance the event will occur it should be anticipated, particularly as it could shake up the world' The pin prick could be anything. Tether is just one of many possible events, any kind of failure that 'breaks the buck' ANYWHERE will do it as well. SD