SharperDingaan

I think its a 30-90 day sale and repurchase at market, no trades in the market itself; pool of buyers putting up T-Bills and covering their downside with puts. It also wouldn't surprise us if a WEB/Blackrock/etc. puts up part of their T-Bill collection in return for an arbitrage spread. Trump has promises to keep; talk up BTC post inauguration, and every one does very well. SD

Agreed, but one has to wonder has long it is until BTC and ETH futures and options on the CME, get pushed to evolve to 24/7. It's great that the derivatives exist; but frankly pretty ridiculous to just be trading on EST, 5 days a week, excluding statutory holidays SD

Interesting write-up on BTC volatility. It's honeymoon time, promises have to be repaid ... most would expect a flood of utter dog sh1te alongside consolidation of BTC, and the market being allowed to prevail; not a bad thing. One would also expect that the more bunnies burnt on dog sh1te, the stronger the market case for both BTC and BTC-ETF's becomes; also desirable. Most would also expect that as adoption accelerates (BTC strategic reserves, BTC-ETF's, BTC investment policy status, deepening of the CME option/future markets, etc), BTC volatility steadily declines towards the market 'average'; simply because of greater directional certainty, and deeper derivative markets buffering more of the inherent volatility. SD

Look at being creative around the Smith Maneuver; there are a lot of opportunities around self-funded CHIPs, and equipment/land-leasing ... but expect some resistance. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/smith-maneuver.asp https://www.chip.ca/ A while back we bought a portable canning line out of bankruptcy, inclusive of nitrogen, carbonation, and labelling facilities; then put the whole thing in an extended van and trailer. Around 3-4 hours to set-up, take-down, and can an 8 barrel tank; plus another 90 minutes for CIP when the van gets home. It is a nice sideline, we can always keep it busy, and a very useful equipment lease tax scheme SD

One can lead a horse to water, but if it will not drink there is nothing one can do ... it just dies from thirst. No matter, as there are lots of other ways by which to make a gain. SD

Just to add to this ... Reported results are not comparable as the portfolio's are not the same; some aren't using TWR, some portfolios are leveraged while others are not, some portfolios are all equity versus others which are a mix of equity/bonds/cash, other portfolios are just one component in a much larger total, .... an endless list. The value add is getting a hint as to what is possible, and being able to assess whether you're doing better than you were as a result of COBF. Those from the 'business' side will generally have a lower risk portfolio, as a way by which to offset risk arising from business ownership. The major assets may be anything from a mortgaged building that the business is renting (tax-deductible rent ultimately paying off the mortgage), through to T-Bill/Bond holdings; generally, the less 'corporate finance' the business person is, the more real estate in that lower risk portfolio. Risk managed according to what that portfolio is intended to do. Private partnerships can be very rewarding, but they also carry unique risks as there is always the risk of a partners sudden exit (planned or otherwise), and high partner taxes if the year's partnership earnings are simply paid out. As 40% liquidity discounts are not uncommon, high cash yields are periodically available ... if resources are available. Hence, to minimise partner taxes, many a partnership prefers to use ongoing 'excess' earnings to simply buy back some of its equity as a 'return of capital'. So what? Most business people need to keep 'active' in early retirement, and partnerships are a preferred way of both spreading the financial and operational risk, as well as reducing an owners 'time on site'; so, expect to see a lot more of this. Obviously, it's not for everyone, but the possibilities are endless; craft brewing just being one of many SD

It's a union card; if you want industry experience in anything interesting, it's pretty much a requirement. As you have to learn the technical, and selling sides anyway .. you might as well get the certification. Do you have to swallow the 'CFA Way', and the up/or out abuse of CFA candidates ?? .... YES, but only until you have the required years of experience. Thereafter, do your own thing. Most would go to MBA school; de-tox, do their 2 years, find their significant other, move out to a 'normal' job in corporate finance, and settle down. That's when your 'investing career' really begins; it's purely an off the side of the desk thing, and it's when you put your capital markets technical and selling experience to use. What will really help you is a decision early on; as to whether you want to spend your working life running businesses, or do you want to spend it buying/selling bits of paper. If you choose to run businesses, 'investment' is just one more tool ... and you hire as needs be, vs do it yourself; while knowing enough to ask the right questions! I come at investing, purely from the business side. Simple test. What's more interesting in statistics; proving the hypothesis via all manner of tests, or extracting the information in the right hand tail of the normal curve? The MBA is interested in the right hand tail ... 'cause that where the successful outliers are. Go back to the data, extract the relevant data lines, and try to find out what made those data sources so good; 'cause maybe you can do something with that! SD

1) Survive to fight another day. First time out it's punishing, then it's an asset; as you know you're hard to kill. 2) Watch, learn from the best, adapt it to your own way, then just do you; you ain't WEB, so stop trying to be WEB, 'cause you're better than WEB! 3) Work in the industry, do the CFA, and question everything. Can't do squat without good tools. Assumes you're already bloody minded, have confidence in your abilities, and there are no dependants. No matter what, you're going to land on your feet; the only question is whether the guy who threw you still has his/her eyes! SD

Quite agree, but the big issue for financial services is that without the credit/debit card business, everybody is a lot smaller ... there is a lot less privacy, a lot less financial services employment, and a lot more competition for the remaining business. When everyone has a transaction free account at the central bank; social welfare recipients also no longer need cheque cashing, migrants no longer have to pay high fees to wire money back home, and it's possible to see exactly where money is going .... inclusive of a time and date stamp. It will come; but nation-wide 'willing adoption' is a real crap-shoot. SD

+100. My first 15 years featured utterly useless performance, and at least two spectacular blow ups where I lost my shirt, and then some!. Thereafter it took years of stellar performance to drag my inception to date CAGR up to > 15%+/yr .... but now, it's the devil who does the dancing!! Trial and error is a great teacher, but it's expensive, you have to survive the losses, be able to successfully synthesise/adapt, and there is no assurance that you will come out 'better'. But Lenny, Lenny, Lenny ...... if you can make it work It's your hand around the devils balls .... so squeeze those suckers hard!II SD

All of this is addressed, in detail, in the crypto thread. BTC is backed by crowd sourced CPU power, BTC protocol, and a cap on the maximum number of BTU that can be produced. It exists so that central bankers can never take your wealth away from you; whether by confiscation, intentional inflation, currency controls, or a visit to the graveyard. And so good a technological alternative to fiat currency, that central bankers around the world have been forced to add competitive payment alternatives such as Central Bank Digital Currency (ie: eYuan). Back in the day we got around on horse and buggy, then motorcars were invented .... today, the horse and buggy lives in an outdoor museum. Change. SD

Started investing decades ago, and was utter sh1te for years! SD

Point was that just because there is no future cash flow; it does not mean that you can't put a value on it. Unique, as there is a maximum 21M token when fully issued; whereas more gold is produced every day, without limit. All points discussed in detail, in the crypto thread. SD

You might want to move this conversation to the crypto thread, where there are numerous posts around this. Valuing BTC is no different to trying to value a relationship, where there ALSO isn't a future cash flow to present value. Inflation protection is the major usage case for BTC, not the trying to pay for something. SD

We treat it as money taken off the investment table as the intent, management, and location (London) is entirely different. For now they are just rentals; at some later point they will be sold off and we will be doing more in the housing development business, where we also have local and deep expertise in the quantity surveying area. Primarily a risk management vs investment thing, so that if we blow up on the investing side, we're still walking away with a healthy nest egg. If it works out; over time the investment side becomes purely passive income generation, and the growth is all in the property business. BTC gets into the upper portion of the adoption 'S' curve; we take our millions and pump it into some diversifying real estate elsewhere than the UK SD

You should be using time-weighted return (TWR), which will be the return that most brokers publish; if using an MS Excel spreadsheet you should be using the XIRR function. SD

Investopedia has a fairly useful definition https://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/081501.asp Momentum is the speed or velocity of price changes in a stock, security, or trade-able instrument. Momentum shows the rate of change in price movement over a period of time to help investors determine the strength of a trend. Stocks that tend to move with the strength of momentum are called momentum stocks. Beloved of the technical analyst, and the curse of the fundamentalist! Momentum trading is just a different approach; if it results in a whack of additional FU money that one can simply give away, so much the better. SD

As expected, we're in the high teens; mostly because of two big capital repatriations that went into additional houses. Bad year for oil/gas, great year for crypto/related swing trades, solid UBS and dividend performances. Slowly moving forward to a primarily oil/gas and BTC portfolio, with fixed income and UBS offsetting some of the risk, and a home built algorithm that ultimately replaces me SD

In the spirit of the New Year; some passing comment, before closing down this discussion on BTC. Much as in the Muppet Show; this board has its heckling old geezers in the balcony, through to the many various characters taking turns on the stage. Each with their own reasons for participating, and the end product as an entertaining and educational training tool. Through the magic of technology, and voluntary curation, we're collectively able to create 'magic' ... and we collectively see the benefits of that in the annual performance post. Just as in hockey, everyone has to raise their game, when everyone routinely plays against the best in friendlies. Playing against one Gretzky is one thing, playing against a whole lot of them? ... bring it on! We have a number of posters on this board with very good crypto expertise, and many from the business versus the purely technical side; that is rare, and it behoves one to act on what they post. Whether one understands it or not; BTC is mainstream, and the globe is in the early stages of rolling it out. BTC as a form of cash equivalent, availability of BTC futures/options on the CME, multiple central banks moving to strategic reserves of BTC, BTC made accessible to the masses via the BTC-ETF, China and Europe retail participation as well as North American, recommended minimum portfolio weightings at 2-5%, regulatory update, easier distribution, etc, etc. BTC/BTC-ETF has become the ultimate momentum 'stock'; the pace of change in the roll out driving the price predictions. We get the astronomical numbers because all this demand falls on a maximum possible supply of 21M BTC token. Earn a 40% before-tax CAGR on BTC for 5 years, and today's $1 turns into tomorrows $5.37; today's small weighting to BTC also takes over the portfolio as it is growing at a much faster pace than the rest of the portfolio. And, as a small amount invested ... grows into more than many might save over an entire working life; the fear is that even if I am ignorant on BTC, I have to be in it .... and it's the South Sea Bubble, Tulip Mania, etc. ... all over again. It's more comforting to deny it, and the more obvious it becomes the more aggressive the push back. It's just people being people. It isn't WEB, within North America we have the greatest wealth transfer in history going on, and some people are going to get very wealthy indeed; hence, all the interest around charitable donation. Sadly, it's also going to destroy a great many families, as unless aware as to how to manage it - wealth at this level is toxic. Entertainment is great, but too much of it is also toxic; everything in moderation. Happy New Year! SD

Simple; buy 10,000 units of a BTC-ETF. If you don't have a good idea as to how many BTC that is, and what BTC was trading at when you bought that BTC-ETF, you need to step away. Price movement in BTC should mimic in the BTC-ETF; and the BTC-ETF is bought so that one gets regulated market protection, and doesn't have to deal with wallets, options access, security, etc. The split is to so as to keep the price of BTC-ETF economical; increasing the split to lower the share price, is the same as doing a conventional share split ... so you need some idea as to what it was when you bought in. Were BTC to go to 110K from 100K tomorrow (+10%), most would expect the BTC-ETF to largely do the same ... so if you don't know what BTC was at the time you bought the BTC-ETF, you have no idea as to what to expect. SD

Great post! .... it was the same argument around the CS/UBS merger. Nobody likes change, and fewer still are able to capitalise on it. Just keep in mind that at 150-200K the cost of a BTC-ETF is roughly $30-40 (assume 5,000:1). Blue-chips become compelling dividend paying alternatives, particularly if you're also trying to protect very material gains for a future house down payment. Happy New Year! SD

We just don't want to.hear it; use your own best choice instead. Outside of options, BTC is one of THE most volatile investments there is, and many are calling for 150-250K within the next 12 months. Most everyone who owns BTC also swing trades it, and BTC can currently be bought for under 100K. Are you really saying that in this kind of environment, you could NOT make at least 50%? SD

Early September you could have bought BTC at around 55K, and sold mid December at around 105K; or 90% in maybe 4 months. Seems to me that only 50%, and over an entire year, is super conservative https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/?fr=sycsrp_catchall SD

Couple of takeaways to keep in mind. 1) Always focus on just ONE area, and swim lane; WCSB, Permian, Off-Shore, etc. The do one thing very well .... versus doing many things just 'OK'. 2) You are primarily looking to the direction of future oil/gas prices, not the quality of management; liner or row-boat, everything does better on a rising tide. 3) Make sure that you have very good risk management. You have to be able to survive to thrive, and not be the 'road-kill'. 4) With very few exceptions, don't fall in love. Trade the cycle, and only swing-trade if you intend to marry. 5) Be able to think for yourself, and across multiple time horizons simultaneously. Most people don't have the risk management necessary. Too much invested, over too short a time-frame, and with too little 'think'; all hat and no cattle What happens in the Permian ISN'T what happens in the WCSB. Lax discipline wiped everyone out decades ago; today's companies are run by the survivors, they are much better run than many US counterparts, the scars go deep, and nobody wants to repeat the busts. You may have fooled me once, but it ain't gonna happen again!; a lot of Calgary/Edmonton families have kin that were wiped out in previous booms/busts. Most folk would expect WTI to more or less trade within an average USD 55-75/bbl range for the next 5 years. Existing production only maintained &/or slowly blown down, with returning capex going primarily into buy-backs and field consolidation; additional drilling mostly just matching depletion, versus adding NET new production. Better deals in the WCSB as new pipe continues to lower differentials (increasing netbacks), the falling dollar raises CAD revenue (increasing netbacks), and the many haters have reduced share prices to ridiculous metrics (low cost base). A moderate improvement, and even a monkey will look like an Einstein (rising tide). Quite a few very good operators within the WCSB. Obviously the big oil sand players, but we would put quite a few others up there as well. Most all of them come up routinely on COBF and on a fairly regular basis. The pending change in Canada's federal government, and Trump doing his thing in the US, just adding to the opportunity. Do your DD, take your time, manage your risk, and you should do well. Good luck! SD

No worries, it's just a different approach to managing risk. SD