SharperDingaan

Your overall approach is right, but if you are not a tech bro you would do better to look elsewhere than the memecoin (there is a reason as to why they are called sh1tecoin!). As a tech bro, tech is your bread and butter, and this is simply an extension of that. A tech bro's 'return' is industry employment at progressively higher compensation, augmented by the bro's knowledge of the crypto funding side, alongside the bro's technical knowledge/experience in tech. Buying into the air-drops may produce a gain, but after the multiple fees paid on the way to getting to cash .. it's much like a betting app; lot of 'activity' ... but no net cash out. As a investor; the return is entirely in selling sardines at high prices, repurchasing at lower prices, and taking the cash difference off the table. Hence, you are better served via a BTC-ETF with a deep market (Blackrock, Fidelity, etc.) that is trading on a regulated exchange. Your time is spent on how you think adoption will go, and assessing whether or not the current market is offering a timing opportunity. Everybody pays a tuition cost. Invest maybe $500, move it around for experience purposes, and see how the various apps work. Invest up to $1,000 between 2 shitecoin, learn from the experience, and assume you lose the entire $1,500 investment. Then, make some decisions. To do well, you don't need to be an 'expert'; you just need to be more knowledgeable around crypto than Joe/Jill Sixpack. It is not a high bar, but as in high-jump/pole-vault the bar rises as time goes by. Good luck! SD

Everybody says they understand the Sigmoid Curve (S Curve).... but few actually 'apply' it. Born of the tech community and jealously guarded as ours, BTC spread quickly, but only within the small community, and only amongst the largely naive. However; tech bro's ain't finance bro's, and we got the blow-outs of the early NFT's, tokens vs securities, the wild-west excesses, etc. BTC from zero to it's 2018 peak at around USD 14K, but with minimal (non tech) retail involvement, and behaviour that really tanked the prospects for wider adoption. BTC moved higher primarily because of the halving process. 2018 through 2022 the monetary authorities took over (adults in the room), again it spread quickly, but again only within the small community. But this time .. intense research into monetary usage, infrastructure build out (derivatives, regulation, etc.) and ultimately a significant CBDC ... rolling out with eYuan at the Beijing Olympics. BTC from USD 14K to the 2021/2022 peaks of USD 60K, continuing minimal (non tech) retail involvement, and tech community friction. BTC higher primarily because of CB involvement. 2024 through 2025 YTD financial sector adoption has begun to take over, again it is spreading quickly but again only within financial services. But this time .. it's a roll-out into financial usage (5% investment allocation, BTC-ETF, central bank/state treasury BTC reserves, etc.). BTC from USD 60K to the 2025 YTD peak of USD 109K, early mass (non tech) retail involvement, and the tech community essentially contractors doing implementation. BTC higher primarily because of advancing roll-out, halving, and regulatory reform. Entry into the beginning of the asymptotic portion of the S curve. Average Joe/Jill six-pack continues to have no clue; the more financially literate are adopting the BTC-ETF as the trading sardine, but have little idea (or interest) in the mechanics. The .com era all over again !!!, with the BTC-ETF as the common man's momentum vehicle of choice. Hard not to get excited at the opportunity Its also only the younger average Joe six-packs that are involved; it ain't the mom's/dad's and it ain't the old folks. However it is also the time of the greatest wealth transfer in history; as the wealth moves from the old to the young, retail adoption accelerates. It accelerates faster still ... when investment in a BTC-ETF is increasingly seen as a viable way by which to pay off a mortgage, decades earlier So when you hear the BTC price projections of USD 150-200K by the end of 2025? ... it's less about the if, and more about the when. Add to it, that it'll be a bumpy road, highly conducive to swing-trades; and that as the multiple verified stories of wealth creation come out ... FOMO will begin to feed into the price Some folks are going to become very wealthy. COBF members might want to give crypto a little more attention, so that those folks include you. SD

Dow Futures down 550 points+, Nasdaq Futures down 500 points+ , S&P Futures down 100 points+ , WTI up 1.52. C'mon Orange Boy ... lets go for a 1,000!, the market is speaking! https://www.cnbc.com/index-futures/ SD

Better to call the bluff and keep the balls on the flame, as prairie oysters taste a lot better roasted. Fuck with us, and you ain't ever going to try it again SD

Trump has burnt a lot of political capital to do this, and cannot afford an extended period of counter tariffs. 300,000 Michigan auto workers will be laid-off within 2 weeks. More recent numbers put the total number of US autoworkers at 990,000; then add the job losses in the myriad other industries that are also being affected. Dec 2024, there were 6.9 M people unemployed in the US ... by the end of March it could well be 8.5 M+ (up 20%+, in two months). https://www.bridgemi.com/business-watch/numbers-how-many-uaw-members-michigan-how-much-would-strike-cost https://www.statista.com/statistics/574197/leading-us-states-in-terms-of-automotive-industry-employement/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNEMPLOY/ The USCMA became effective July 2020, and runs through July 2036. Try as he might; Trump can't force either Canada or Mexico to re-negotiate early, and Trump will be gone by 2029. Lot of strutting, but a melting ice cube. Canada leads, everyone else follows, and very shortly thereafter almost everything the US makes is under some kind of tariff. The US ain't selling squat abroad, and everyone else is selling between themselves at no tariff. Deporting illegals doesn't reduce the unemployment rate either, as they aren't registered, it just makes it harder to find labour willing to accept the poor pay. Orange crush. It is a simple matter to load WCS at market price onto tankers, then resell the cargo to west coast refiners via flags that are tariff free. The only limitation is the capacity of the pipe, and the ability of oil-trains to supplement the tide-water egress. Cushing inventory is nominal, Alberta gets world price on the same volume, the refiner pays world price on the same volume, and the tax man gets ... nothing. Complements to Ari Onassis As in hockey; punch back hard, keep punching, and pretty soon there's a pile on, and penalties. Keep raising the heat ... and ice cubes quickly turn into puddles SD

Present estimates are that it will take about 10 days for Windsor and Detroit to shut down. Probably a lot shorter for the US/Mexican plants. Canadian unemployment for Feb is expected to jump by 250K in Ontario alone; at 10x the size of Canada, US losses will be approaching 2.5M. Higher still as Trump reacts to getting punched. SD

The expectation is that the existing government will be called back to declare an election as at a specific date, and put required bills forward. The 'caretaker' government kept in place to deal with Trump until the election, by opposition agreement. Interfere, or don't sign on, and you are almost guaranteed to lose the election. Canada first, and everybody plays together, or else. SD

East and west coast facilities already exist, along with rail. The limitation is capacity, and how/where it is expanded. New pipe is safer than twinning the rail lines, and both are nation building mega projects. St John is a deep water port and already services Hibernia. Churchill is similar, exports grain out of the west, and upgraded rail would really help. Montreal is well placed to receive refined product, and already processes Saudi cargoes. Domestic Victory Bonds were used to finance WWII; all of this could be financed in a very similar way, and Canada has the expertise. Would this have ever been floated were there no threat to everyone? Highly unlikely. Orange Boy is doing us all a favor. SD

Hate to say it, but this is the time for viscous high sticking, and hitting back as hard as possible. It's also the time to globally close ranks on the US, and tariff most all US exports to all the major US customers. No point to moving manufacturing to the US if you then can't sell the goods. The US just experiences mass unemployment ..... along with everyone else, then pays reparations, as the free trade agreement continues until 2036. Oil trains to the east and west coast will start within months, the whole transit will be through Canada, and Europe/Asia will benefit instead. The oil pulled from the US flow south to force up the domestic US price of heavy crude. Empty railcars returning with refined product, refined elsewhere. Both nations trading unemployment. After the losses of Pearl Harbour the US was outgunned in most everything. Then, as now, the solution was to bring the fight to the enemy and attack the Marshall Islands. It was good for morale, the nation needed to hit back, and it proved that the empire wasn't all powerful. Welcome to tariffs. SD

The 'art' of the Banana was in getting someone to pony up something truly stupid for it. The chutzpah of that bastard! SD

Inter provincial trade barriers would never have come down were it not for Trump. Similarly, a national energy policy, a national water policy, cross country rail and pipe transportation that stays entirely within Canada, and new pipe going east. Pipe entirely made from Canadian steel, laid by Canadian crew, using European fittings wherever possible, and with minimal US financing and/or involvement - to prove that it can be done. And if some of that financing were Chinese .... well if you don't like it, buy them out at the Trump tariff! SD

We have now made our return for the year, closed out our swing trades, and have a pile a cash to apply to whatever emerges. Not proud of the outcome, but we will survive to fight another day. The hope is that o/g is either exempted tomorrow, or put on a fast track to an exemption. Should Quebec/Newfoundland/Ontario electricity exports subsequently get an exemption, the whole tariff thing drops away as the US will have a net trade surplus. Lot of ways it could go. Lot of folks are going to lose work over this, but long term .... it's probably one of the best things that could have happened to Canada. Rough hockey that raises everyone's game, and KEEPS IT THERE. SD

All recognise that WEB/Munger were very good, but they made their money way back in the last century in the rebuilding after the devastation of WWII; and thereafter have compounded that success over decades. And as time has moved on, their market risk has progressively declined, as evidenced via the growing pile of treasuries. Masters at work; but much like a Leonardo Da Vinci, masters from a different time. Today's world of advanced technology is an industrial revolution, that is rebuilding much of what was there before (ie: tech vs bomb devastation). Hence, many of the old metrics just aren't as effective anymore. The problem is that if history often rhymes; 2029 is 4-years from now, and the end of the Trump 2.0 term. The Great Crash was 1929, the decade leading up to it was the 'Gatsby' era, and the fallout laid the economic ground work that contributed to WWII a decade later. SD

Calls assuming he defers the implementation. Puts assuming he is dumb enough to do it. SD

When the conservative portfolio allocation to crypto is 2-5% (around the world); CB's will have little choice but to follow. Thing is .... it doesn't have to ALL be in BTC; some of it could also be in national mining (ie: 'Foundry' counterparts), and key CBDC infrastructure. Adoption also ISN'T just about greater use of crypto, it's also about ensuring enough joint control over mining capacity ... such that nobody can ever get > 50% of global hash capacity. Which is why 'crypto strategic reserve' DOES NOT MEAN just a pile of BTC ... it also means a mechanism by which to immediately transfer ALL of a nations mining capacity under one roof, and a 'Blue Genie' on 'reserve' in the basement of a Central Bank. Capacity is tied to hash power, so f*** with us .... SD

Proceeds, as it just gives us ability to do more on the business side, which is where we really get our kicks. For us, process is just coming up with a solution to address some problem. Every problem different enough that the process is always changing. SD

Adoption just moved a little further up the S curve ... https://www.reuters.com/technology/czech-central-bank-governor-present-plan-hold-reserves-bitcoin-ft-reports-2025-01-29/ 7B Euro to flow into BTC from one SMALLER central bank should they decide to go ahead. Should Poland and Hungary (facing similar Ukraine related uncertainties) follow, Germany will be soon after. BTC (unlike gold) was designed so that it could never be seized without the key, and was accessible anywhere. When even central bankers explicitly recognise the benefit, the proof is pretty solid. The more whales there are, and the more stable there are, the more secure the entire thing becomes. Exactly as Satoshi designed it SD

You might want to keep in mind that when playing against a computer you are also being tracked; and the more 'creative' you are, the more subtle and manipulative the tracking is - the next game often being an A-B test on the result of some aspect of the last game. Intentionally disrupt the algorithm over a series of rapid games .... and all of a sudden the link either 'breaks' or 'freezes'. You won SD

You all might want to take a closer look at the levels of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Trumps yapping around 'Drill Baby Drill' and cheaper oil, and the declining US drill count. The only way this works is if the fed agrees to tax collection via an oil PIK, and the 'cash saved' goes into additional drilling at shale reservoirs that are already tied into the collection networks. Once the reservoir is primarily gas, it then becomes a strategic gas reserve that is accessed via these same wells. The oil pumped into the SPR, replaced from new reserves in the various restricted reservoirs that Trump is busy making available. SD

Sold our additional BTC-ETF over the last few days, and have a swing trade on the remaining core BTC-ETF. Rather think that Trump screwed the pooch with the $TRUMP dump, and that it will take a while to restore confidence in BTC. In the meantime .... a pile of cash looking to return to o/g, on a threatening tweet SD

Different PoV .... Trump is currently at his most able; but with every passing month, he grows progressively weaker, and at an accelerating rate. Same as an option, or a melting ice-cube, time works against him. The US ship of state is massive, it doesn't turn on a dime, and disruption generates consequences that have to be overcome. The mystery is whether the Orange Man drowns in the disruption, or becomes senile, before actually reaching the end of his term. Opportunities. Forced deportation sounds great .... until you actually see it. Last time out it was immigrant children held in warehouses, in cages; alternatively, if you don't like the warehouses it's tent cities, that look a lot like 2nd/3rd world refugee camps. Trade partners will gladly publish stats evidencing that they are doing what they said they would do; but ... hey bud! .... why didn't you turn back the thousands of illegals trying to flee into Canada from the US?, and why didn't you reduce YOUR illegal drugs and gun flow this month? ..... you don't do your share .... why should we do ours? Opportunities. Lot's of 'idea's' people around Trump .... but grinders? not so much. Do we really think that the tech mavens are still there in 6-months, or is it more likely that they've moved on? 'Cause if you do ..... they are also melting ice-cubes, and melting a lot faster than everyone else. Opportunities. Change is not a bad thing ... but ability declines rapidly. Option opportunities. SD

Forever the heretic ..... The US innovates, it does it very well, but it has slept on its laurels for a very long time. The big difference is that now the dragon has woken up, it's breaking the furniture, and years of dammed up innovation are now flowing downstream. It's just super disruptive as old world orders are swept away, new ones established, and there is widespread change. Not a bad thing, and if you are a youth ... this is your future; grab it with both hands, and SQUEEZE! Canada should be a big beneficiary; but only if we continue to play rough hockey, we give as much as we get, and we move with the times. It's not the 1980's anymore it's 2025, and that hot guy/gal back then is now claiming pension, as the times have moved on! Expect lots of volatility, lots of broken teeth/arms, and CAD to fall like a brick .... but a decade from now? CAD approaching parity. Expect restructured inter-provincial trade barriers, and material trade/energy corridors flowing east/west/north not that dissimilar to the EU. New grid and pipe running south, joint NATO development of coastal/arctic waters, tighter and more integrated borders. M&A and infrastructure opportunities, not that different to when highways were being built back in the day; it's not just the US waking up. Back in the day, draft-dodgers were able to flee to Canada; today, that now tighter border is going to be well spent money turning a lot of 'illegals' back. Mystery as to what happens with those who if turned back to the US, would be deported back to 'where they came from', and probable death (ie: Indian Sikh, or Chinese opposition). Not sure that Canada is in the murdering business. Lots of opportunities .... too little time! SD

Granted it's funny as hell, but step back a bit .... it's hard to imagine that Musk's hands aren't all over this, and that friends aren't intentionally pushing BTC higher. Most would be cautious if they thought a Goldman Sachs was on the other side of their trade, and the same should apply here. Enjoy the ride, but keep a sharp eye on the number of digits you have SD

Economic theory just offers a model; it doesn't recognise time value, and it doesn't have the provable certainty of empirical science. If it takes two years for the global industry to do a weighted average CR of 100, one then needs to discount that at some discount rate. If your CAGR was just 5%, you will be 'off' by at least 10% (1.05^2), and the global industry would look it is incurring a structural 10%+ loss every year. NA may be up, Asia flat, and Europe down .... but overall ? it's a 10% loss simply because of the need to recognise time value. SD

The more rapidly that BTC protocol climbs the adoption curve the better; the meme sh1te is just Trumps base being pulled into the show ... to get a taste of the payoffs, and push the protocol further. Entertainment .... but also very smart. Every state in the US will start buying BTC as soon as the relevant executive order is signed; at their maximum weighting. With the elephants stomping around, it's not place for newbies. SD