SharperDingaan

Quite agree, the majority of Americans voted for change, and the more radical the better; Americans will reap what they have sown, good or bad, and all the power to them. But as with all new-born babies their eyes eventually open; and there is nothing like collapsing business, widespread unemployment and inflation to help the process. Trump doesn't deliver the goods by the mid-terms ... and he gets knee-capped. Melt, baby, melt SD

The reality is that for both Canada and Mexico the tariff rate is ZERO, as per the CUSMA trade agreement; negotiated and signed by Trump himself. The agreement runs through until 2036, and all that Canada and Mexico need do is let it expire. Trump is a melting ice cube, and his only tool is chaos. To maintain it he has to burn the house, destroy goodwill, isolate the US from the rest of the world, and keep the public divided. But should he lose the senate after the midterms .... it's game over. The sh1te hits the wall when the US has to restructure its debt, and capital runs. Maybe the real reason for all the chaos? SD

Make it yourself comes with a cost, particularly if you need scale to get the cost per unit down. It may be domestic ... but also utter sh1te (the LADA). That national security additional cost is defense spending. Food production is national security. Maybe you import the potash and labour and try to grow your own; year round. Or maybe you just import the food, from around the world, as you need it. That national security additional cost is ALSO defense spending. Both Germany and Japan are re-arming, last time out that didn't go so well. The same thing is also happening across Europe and Canada in response to the NATO 5% mandate. Lots canceling US weapons purchases as well, as the US continues to prove its unreliability. Most folks are either dead or in care homes by the time they are 84. Orange Boy and Putin are old men ... in 5-10 years, they may not even be here. National security is valid for some things, but there are real limitations. SD

Americans do not have to buy those cheap goods, and are not prevented from coming up with better competing product. However, that competing US product will be built primarily by robot, and there just will not be as much labour required. SD

Canada is the largest trade partner that the USA has, by dollar value. Trump likes to call everyone else names, everyone else can call him names too. When he can't be civil flapping his gums, turnaround is fair play. Cut off the electricity, and we'll find out if he glows in the dark! SD

More like the Greek debt during their crises, on which we did very well. With luck, ..... maybe Orange Boy buys us a nice place on a Greek Island this time! SD

Nah ... you're just a little stunned from a passing elbow to the side of the head! We're your biggest client; if you want to keep the business, you've got to respect your client. It ain't the old way of doing business anymore .... and we ain't having to restructure our debt. SD

Should the US follow the path of most others, when it does the 100 year zero-coupon, it will ALSO be imposing a haircut. Assume the zero-coupon discounts at the 7.8% .... the $1,000 zero coupon will trade at around $547.17 [(1000/(1.078)^100)*1000]. Given that this will also be quite the shock, a 9-10%+ spike would not be unreasonable .... suggesting a transitional price in the $70-180 range per $1,000 of face value. Opportunity But more importantly .... the bulk of the annual debt service bill will be immediately eliminated, as there will be no more coupon interest to pay; a very big cash saving. Of course ... no more reserve currency either, as we currently know it either! chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.piie.com/sites/default/files/publications/wp/wp13-8.pdf SD

The markets will decide it. Down 4,000 points so far, and this will be good for another 50% plus. SD

The US will be buying at a discount; but it really means an ongoing US fleet presence in the area, and SA continuing to play ball by holding oil prices down. Of course ... it is also in the OPEC interest to create a risk-on premium that forces the price to rise, and weapons manufacturers to supply the hardware .... SD

Keep in mind that targeted layers are only developed if they are economic at the current forecast prices. Prices rise, or technology lowers cost, and those other layers will be developed. Prices fall ... and production from the highest cost existing layers risks getting shut in. At too high a gas/water cut, the economics fail .. and production from the highest cost existing layer gets shut in. Drill baby drill to raise production and lower prices; simply shuts in higher cost permian oil production and raises the cost of natural gas as total supply shrinks. The US could also comfortably draw down on/offshore production for at least a decade without any need to add new oil reservoirs. Trump needs to both refill the SPR, and rehabilitate it. Get OPEC to hold less off the market to drive price down, and as much as possible .... have the US buy as much sanctioned Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan crude as it can. End the war in Ukraine ... and we'll take your crude. End your support for Hamas and Hezbollah .... and we'll take your crude. The majors controlling the drilling budgets, and US drilling focused on 'manufacturing' and field productivity. Trump the isolationist, also needs new and high-capacity state-of-the-art US refining capacity at eastern tidewater; expensive, and the US economy don't work with no gas. To do it requires a reliable high volume of heavy crude to blend with US light; hence the push to get Keystone 2.0 built. Before tariffs there might have been the goodwill to get it built ... today additional pipe will go west/east versus south .. and the US will either pay world price or go without. Happy to sell it to you, and compete against Mexican/Venezuelan supply, but it ain't gonna be done the 'old way' anymore. If you think the US is also financially stretched .... the SPR refill and refinery builds will require external capital. Lot of it will be money-laundered funds, with strings attached. SD

NATO gives the world security; ... not just the US ... all by itself. US markets are nice; ... but China is near just as big ... the US ain't the only gal at the dance. Lower USD; why not just make our own currencies cheaper? and keep the benefit ourselves. Manufacturing; there ain't the job quantities you think, robots do the work. Productivity is a bitch. US debt is still junk, no matter how much you shine the turd. Keep your fiat and give me your gold &/or BTC instead! Tariffs only work if the other guy doesn't retaliate, and tariff free trade is the most efficient trade there is for everyone (win-win). If you really want a new Bretton Woods ... put your fiat on a stable coin BTC-Standard SD

Quite agree; don't want to hear it, good on you. The common view along the first 50km of most highways south of the Canada/US border, across the width of Canada. Threaten the rest of the world, and it is going to retaliate ... having an idea as to what that might look like, and how it might impact you, is just being prudent; your choice as to whether to act or not. However, the reality is that Americans do NOT live in a vacuum. You aren't free - you live in a law abiding community, you may well soon not have a job anymore to pay for what you want, and maybe ... you will also not have a wife and kids anymore if you lose the house/car, and fall into a bottle or pill box. Attitudes that are not going to change until there is widespread house burning. Misery that is entirely avoidable. SD

Re Tesla-Musk. Orange Boy isn't going to change until Americans forceably make him. Wall Street as a result of collapsing markets, business as a result of shut out exports/higher import costs, the public as a result of mass layoffs and higher costs, and the federal reserve as a result of buyers progressively walking away from US debt. Markets down 15-30%+, unemployment at 6-15%+ .... the best outcome for all is the hardest crash possible, and as rapidly as possible. After tariffs, a Tesla in Europe now costs as much as a high-end BMW. The BMW is luxury and reliable; the Tesla an embarrassment to drive, a target for vandals .... and that is before it catches fire, all by itself Turds on wheels. Tesla ain't selling squat. After tariffs, that luxury BMW in the US is now uber expensive, and makes the statement that you can afford it. Whereas, that NEW Tesla is just for the tech bro who can't afford the real thing; and that USED Tesla .... well, you must be REALLY hard up. Again, Tesla ain't selling squat. Bulk Starlink contracts are being torn-up the world over, en masse. Space Ex rockets seem to have developed a propensity for blowing up ... and all this before their supply chain gets rocked As it is with Tesla, it will be a similar experience across much of US business engaged in trade. And it will get really exciting when a T-Bill auction has to be scaled back ... 'cause not enough demand showed up. Tariff every other country and at least the external pain gets spread around. Every other country tariffs you at the same time, the internal pain gets concentrated ..... and change. Sadly, the bar fight has now started, and there will be no winners. Best outcome is as many knock-out blows, as soon as possible, to end it quickly. SD

Musk will also need an ongoing security detail just to get around, and will be the target for quite a few angry people who lose their homes and families as a result of the callous mass firings that he has inflicted. Lots of guns in the US; once the benefits run out, the foreclosure notices start, and family collapses begin .... he's a fat target. If you suspect that Musk also bought a president .... dispose of Musk; and you knee-cap the growth in US tech innovation, as well as now own that president. Something that most all of Orange Boys fellow dictators are very adept at. All adds up to a melting ice-cube. SD

Time is ticking on musk, and it isn't going well. The man has lost it, and same as a druggie .... is now addicted. No matter how rich you are, your pusher controls you .... along with the president you bought. Starlink, Tesla, Space Ex; target them and the druggie craters. Maybe he makes it to rehab .... maybe he falls off the balcony that his Russian friends are so fond of. SD

Trump has 7 quarters left over which to deliver results (mid-terms), trade partners will be resisting all the way, and every quarter he will be pushing against more and more domestic resistance. It also assumes that he doesn't go senile, and remains alive; lots of guns in the US, and next time it might not be his ear. It is also the trading partners that primarily benefit, and NOT the US. SD

The concern is that technology advancements are threatening US reserve currency status, and ability to continue borrowing at low rates. The current slash and burn within the federal service, and the creation of a BTC reserve, suggests that the US is already having difficulty refinancing at favourable rates, and that it is expected to get worse. A stablecoin is just a new coin, over-collaterised against a pile of junk. Or basically a pinata, resting on its ability to maintain a collateral value above the value of the stablecoin issued. Beat on the pinata hard enough ... to break the peg ... and the pillage will be very good Stablecoin 2.0 The monetary equivalent is the gold standard; USD as the stablecoin, bricks of gold as the collateral, at a fixed peg of 'X' USD per ounce of gold. The stablecoin 3.0 version is the BTC standard; 'new' USD debt, exchangeable into BTC at whatever the current market value is. Hold this 'new' debt and you are immune to FX devaluation, so long as the US has sufficient BTC. The actual meaning behind .... "We are going to keep the US the dominant reserve currency in the world and we will use stablecoin to do that." Hell of a trick! but of course ...... every other country/corporation in the world can also do this same thing as well. All good for the future value of BTC SD

No short book. We just sell down existing equities at today's high price, and reinvest in BTC-ETF at today's low price. Trump does his thing, tariffs reduce earnings and lower the market; BTC rises as adoption progresses, and more whales enter. Periodically sell down BTC-ETF at tomorrows (expected) high price, buy back the sold equities at tomorrows (expected) low price. Realised long gain on the BTC-ETF, realised short gain on the equities, increase in cash. Our risk is that Trump suddenly finds civility; pretty sure that isn't much of a risk! SD

The BTC strategic reserve has actually been in place ever since the silk road seizure; all that really happened here, was that is was formally transferred to the federal reserve. No cost to the taxpayer .... so the reserve must grow from BOTH ongoing criminal/drug seizures, AND BTC lending/options trading via the CME. The BTC options and futures markets need to be a lot bigger/deeper than they currently are ... and to do that requires a sizeable beneficial interest in BTC, made available via a derivative with a reliable counter party Any one whales volatility influence is a function of their rarity, ownership, and size. The more whales, the less volatility any one of them can create. The more institutional ownership the more professionally managed whales there are. When everyone is big, it needs a very large whale in order to make an impact. All adds up to less volatility and more professional management as the BTC market matures; still possible to manipulate, but a lot harder to do. Tesla is just an example; all that is really needed is a sustained downturn in tech sector earnings over 2-3 quarters. Firing offence if you work in one of these companies and are actively shorting the company (or using a derivative) to benefit from a downturn. However ..... perfectly OK were you to be in a BTC-ETF, likely to benefit from that same downturn in the tech sector The whole world hates Tesla, but it ain't too happy with the other 6 either ... and tariffs aren't good for future earnings. The more that the indexes drop, and the more relative weakness in tech earnings ... the more alluring the BTC-ETF looks; life is good Just a different POV. SD

The 'summit' was a nothing burger, as evidenced by BTC falling 5% after the event. BTC rises/falls based on money flow. Include BTC in portfolio allocations; flow goes up and prices rise (ie: adoption). Put the global economy in the shitter, and the opposit occurrs. The more whales holding BTC the less volatile it becomes. Price rises (in fiat terms) primarily because the fiat is devaluing, and the US is becoming progessively more unstable. Hence, the more disruptive Trump is, the richer we all get; all hail the right hand leg of a long straddle BTC will really jump when one of the big techs collapses; today its the magnificent seven PLUS BTC; just as when an I-Bank collapses, the rest become scum ...... and whatever remains ..... benefits. Put a sustained global bank run on Tesla, and it WILL collapse; and a lot of nations/competitors will be more than happy to give it a nudge towards bankrupting Elon. Nobody likes MAGAlomaniacs All good for BTC. Just a different POV. SD

This whole thing is much like it must have been, were you one of the major players in "The Big Short". Cannot see what will prevail, 'cause it has not happened yet;, therefore it will not. So when the pennies do eventually drop ..... Tesla shares are down 25% in 2 months, and vandalisation of anything Tesla is now a badge of honor. US foreign sales are down significantly since the last quarter, and all will start reporting in about another 9 weeks. How do you think that goes on the indexes? How do you think it goes if there are also tariff related layoffs all across the US, and some of them are sizeable? How does it go if Elons firings, also result in instances of delays in receiving benefits? The most effective way out of this is to burn down the bullys house, and we all know that Trump is thin skinned. One might be unable to speak out ..... but there are lots of ways by which one can discretely benefit should it not go well. Very strange place .... SD

Tariffs apparently aren't going well for Orange Boy ... markets are falling, Canada isn't playing the game, ... and tariffs are now biting. Apparently auto plants can also be relocated within a month, along with their supply chains ..... It's supposed to be a 'negotiation'! , you f****** aren't supposed to actually do it !!! We give you a carve out, you reciprocate .... you don't refuse to remove all your tariis until we remove all ours !!!! Welcome to elbows up!; we're told that Times Square looks very pretty in candlelight High unemployment and inflation are coming to a neighbourhood near you, and the more Orange Boy rants ... the more certain its arrival. Sadly, there isn't going to be change until a great many are hurting badly. SD

No bets on misery thanks. It's one thing to passively prosper off of adverse volatility via a long straddle ... but prospering by hitting some minimum level.of mass unemployment by time X is just wrong. SD

It only needs 2-3 states to fail, and panic will do the rest. Social media is a bitch, and even Elon will not be able to prevent a viral spread. SD