SharperDingaan

Treasury yields continue to rise, and USD keeps falling ... net capital outflows. Q2 numbers will also suck as most overbought in Q1 to get under the tariffs. Q2 unemployment and inflation adding to the misery. Lots of reasons to reduce US exposure, and expect the indexes to fall accordingly. SD

Keep in mind that many hold their BTC via a BTC-ETF, and will not be visible on chain .... as all that will be visible is a few wallets with large quantities. That 20,000 BTC-ETF holding 2-3 BTC is anonymous.... SD

The 'public' sees 8 wallets. If you did all the transactions though the same wallet, only 1 wallet would be visible. Helps with anonymity, but blows up the stats. Haircut the total number of wallets by around 40-50% to get an idea as to the 'true' number of accounts. SD

One buys an income property for a net positive rental income, PLUS a gain on sale; the object of speculation (house) generating a net positive rental income until it is eventually sold at a gain. You can do exactly the same thing with a BTC-ETF that pays a monthly dividend. SD

BTC for everyone .... Folks, we are looking out TEN YEARS. We're pretty sure the horse and buggy folks were also positive that everyone didn't need a motorcar when they first came out. Of course, today, one can still get around without a motorcar .... but for most, it is not by choice. BTC doesn't need to be a means of payment for everyday transactions, just as gold doesn't need to be. There are all kinds of level 2 solutions that can make BTC backed payments quicker and cheaper. If you live in other parts of the world where there is high inflation and/or routine FX devaluation, these solutions are an alternative to USD cash. The trading thing is no different to people fixing up houses and attempting to fiip them for a gain. It's just a different mindset, and there is resistance to the approach being used outside of real estate. Different strokes. SD

Just to add to this ..... If you are going to play in the patch, it is very much in your interest to ensure that you have worked in the patch you're investing in, for at least 2-3 years, ideally through a downturn. You have to learn how to survive, how to thrive under adversity and ambiguity, how to work with all kinds of people, and how to adapt to opportunity. It's a lot of fun, but it's also all about knowing what you want, and ability to manage risk. As most people can't do that ..... the cemetery fills up quick SD

At it's simplest assume the trades are within a tax-exempt/tax-deferred account, therefore no immediate tax paid. Outside of a tax-exempt/tax-deferred account, assume a round-trip wash-trade in the same security (CUSIP #) within 30 days of the initial sale; in most places there will be no tax paid. No tax tail wagging the dog. Why do it? Reinvest your swing trade gain in the same security, and your same amount of initial capital invested in that security, has now bought more shares; lowering your cost per share. At that lower cost per share, you can now tolerate a lower share price before starting to suffer losses. Risk management. If you have a life changing target amount in mind (400K to pay off a mortgage), the more shares you have the lower your selling price can be, and the sooner you can reach that target. Reinvest swing trade gains in additional shares of the same security, brings your future exit forward. Risk management. Getting paid for your time. The more familiar you are with a few securities day to day movements, the more likely you are to make timely trades. So long as you win more than you lose, you have monetised your time invested. Doesn't mean stare at a screen all day, but it does suggest a more concentrated portfolio, and looking at the days close every other day or so. Respect the money. Volatility as your friend is not what many want to hear, or care to use. Obviously, not for everyone. SD

Hate to tell you this but in 2025, most every investment house from Blackrock down, recommends a minimum 5% weighting. If you are young and have the runway ahead of you the rep will suggest a higher weighting, and higher still if you are saving to buy a house. You pay good money for that recommendation ... but of course, are free not to follow it. It is just a math driven forecast, if the assumptions are valid .. it is where BTC needs to be, and what mitigation might do. Change the assumptions and you will get different numbers .... just keep in mind that BTC at 500K is a fairly common forecast amongst the major investment houses. The market has long since moved on from BTC as worthless. SD

BTC is something that everyone needs to have. Could be as BTC itself, a BTC-ETF, or via a stock. Depending upon the investment purpose; it could also be part of the portfolio cash/money market allocation, or the equity component. Default 5% weighting, rising to a 35% weighting the younger you are ... so that you can afford to buy a house when you grow up. It is also not enough to passively own the exposure, you need to actively manage ... sadly, beyond most people's capabilities. So, 10 years out ... USD 500K/BTC; 10 yr forward discount of 17.5%+ SD Numbers example Assume you are US based and measure price in BTC_USD. Base price of USD 100K/BTC, 3.5% average inflation over the 10 years (tariffs driven), 15% USD devaluation to whatever the reserve currency alternate is (tariffs driven). Base price just to stay 'even' , 10 years out .... 162K/BTC (100x(1.035)^10 x 1.15 Assume US equities continue to deliver a 10yr CAGR of 8%, and 'on average' BTC is 2x more risky that the market. At the required risk-adjusted 16% growth rate, the base price of BTC, 10 years out, needs to be ..... 507K/BTC (100x(1.16)^10 x 1.15. 10 year risk-adjusted CAGR of 17.6% (100,000X(1+.176)^10 = 507,000) Assume this is not a buy and hold position; it will be aggressively swing traded while the price is 'cheap', and the net gain reinvested in BTC, raising the unit count by 10%. Swing trade base price to stay 'even' is 147K (162/1.1), risk-adjusted it is 461K (162/1.1)

At best, over the last 2 weeks, BTC has been demonstrating a weak negative correlation to the market. Some days maybe it is; but only after a delay, and only after gold also rose strongly. Other days it fell with the market on the day; and only rose the next day. Maybe there actually is something there ... but there aren't enough data points yet, and it could quite easily just be wishful thinking, and a few people simply testing it out as a cheaper alternate to gold ... hence the delays. It will be real when institutions agree (adoption), and we are still a ways from that. More notable is that the price of BTC often moves in the opposite direction to the price of oil; and has done do for many months now. Again it's not always the case, and not always to the same degree; but a lot easier to back test. SD

Swing trade. BTC-ETF proceeds into o/g, earning a fat monthly cash yield while we wait for BTC-ETF prices to fade. Sell the o/g and repurchase the BTC-ETF. Ideally we earn a long gain on the o/g, collect monthly dividends, and earn a short gain on the BTC-ETF for our swing trade risk. Seems fairly low risk, but obviously not for everyone. SD

Blake, keep in mind that a great many on this board bring decades of practical portfolio experience, and have all the related professional union cards that you might expect. If the PM failure rate is 30% per economic cycle, and a PM is still doing this after 4 cycles, they are in the top 24% (1-.3)^4. Selection bias. Variants are outliers, most everyone achieves it via different paths, and the more cycles they survive the rarer they are. But no matter what ... everyone increasingly has similar characteristics as the number of cycles goes up. Two of them are judgement/maturity, and fluid change management. Find what suits you best, learn your craft, and apply/adapt daily. Sometimes the rougher you are the better! Years of continually getting back up and playing against the Gretzky's, knocks the chips off your shoulder, raises your game, and maybe ..... there's a diamond underneath. Then it's just a matter of whether it's 50 carats .... or 500 carats, and get the hell out of my way Best of luck. SD

Step away from the charts ..... BTC price as a function of liquidity (M2). M2 is the U.S. Federal Reserve's estimate of the total money supply, including all the cash people have on hand, plus all the money deposited in checking accounts, savings accounts, and other short-term saving vehicles such as certificates of deposit (CDs). All across the US, tariff related volatility is triggering layoffs, and foreign tourism is way down (air, accommodation, meals, holiday spend). In the US people are starting to draw down on cash, savings, and CDs; and the same is happening everywhere else in the world. Price bias DOWNWARD. Higher money in-flow into BTC depends upon increasing institutional adoption. With today's tariff related volatility, the conservative approach is to reduce exposure, and simply wait and see how BTC performs relative to the chaos. Price bias DOWNWARD. Saylor has made recent comments that if price keeps falling, they might need to sell down some of their BTC holding in order to meet credit obligations. Not all whales are the same ... but if this one has to sell down some? Price bias DOWNWARD. Crypto summits, better regulation, US BTC bonds are simply ideas being pitched ... promises, promises, not implementations. Maybe they raise inflows into BTC maybe they don't, maybe it's implemented competently maybe its another utter **** **. Given the administration track record to date? Price bias DOWNWARD. The daily tweet might spike the BTC price upward, but one has to think that it is against a downward price bias. Use the volatility ... but don't marry the crypto. SD

Not narrative, actuals. If you are based outside of the US, in the current climate, it makes a great deal of sense to reduce your US holdings. Sell down your US stocks and real estate. Take maturing TBill capital out of the country. Take physical delivery of gold outside of the country. Capital flight .... The usual defense is capital controls ... but when you also want to be 'king of crypto' .... you are also supporting a primary evasion vehicle. Arbitraging the various tariffs is also great for smuggling! The US is just reaping what it has sown, and the losses have just begun. SD

Pretty simple. Rationality, predictability, and good governance. The US voted for the opposite, and power to them. But now it wears the consequences, there is no 'redo', and it is not how good neighbour's act with each other. Enjoy your island; nobody has to visit it, trade with it, buy its debt, or invest in it. Hence, hardly surprising that the term 'Ugly American' is making a comeback .. it is well earned. SD

Mania depends on the narrative not being questioned, and the nay sayer being trashed as nutcase. A very profitable place to be, as the Great Recession demonstrated! We just look at the outlying possibilities and the possible path towards them. Paths and probabilities changing daily, but over time ... the cone of possibilities becomes progressively narrower. It's pretty clear that Trump has no practical plan; it's nothing more than make it up as you go along, and bite the heads off anyone who dares to challenge. Idiocy of course, but also an opportunity generator that is foolish to waste. Ideally, he experiences a senior moment that he can't recover from. In the meantime; suck as much juice out of the orange as you can, while you still can. SD

This is why we think a US debt restructuring is a lot nearer, and a little different to what most people would think. Imagine a mandatory conversion of all maturing foreign held T-Bills, as at date X, into 100-yr zero coupons (approx. 20% of the total debt). Domestic T-Bill holders as at date X, given a time-limited option to convert, should they wish to do so. On day X +1, that option trades on the market. 20% of the annual debt service cost instantly disappears, along with roughly 16-20% (Face Value - the NPV of the zero's) of the national debt, and there is nothing that the 'foreigners' can do about it. The trigger? .... a foreign buyers strike, stoked by the tariff war. The escalation? nationalization of foreign owned assets in the US, and US assets located abroad. Charming. Nobody wants nationalization .... so the debt run gets deflected onto the US gold reserve instead, via physical settlement of in the money options ... and all of a sudden, BTC becomes a 'new' national monetary reserve. An enterprising lad could do very well SD

Old TBills are paid back with the proceeds of new ones. China simply weaponizes its money, steps away from buying new TBills, and let's its existing bills mature. Maybe the US can handle it, maybe it cannot, but either way ... not good for the market. At maturity, option holders in the money can either take the physical underlying or the gain as a cash settlement. Simple thing to weaponize and request delivery anywhere outside of the US. Maybe the US has the gold .... maybe it does not; and we soon find out if they have been swimming naked. When your gold is draining, and you are stretched for buyers to roll over your debt ... it's not long until you hit the debt wall and debt restructuring. Run baby run .... SD

104% tariffs on China. Way to go Orange Boy! .... just wiped out a good chunk of the buyers for maturing US debt, put a run on central bank gold held at Fort Knox, and dropped the market by a few thousand points. Take physical delivery outside of the US on those gold call options and Make America Go Away. Can't be a reserve currency if you will not allow free movement of the underlying bullion ... if it even exists.... as how long ago was the last audit? A material debt restructuring has to be getting close, and nobody has to buy US goods/services. Simply buy cheaper elsewhere, and let the tariff chaos strangle the US. SD

Just to add to this ... In the craft brewing business, one of our biggest unit costs is the aluminum can and fastener; for the most part, the aluminum comes from Canada and the can comes from the US. Almost everyone bought 6-9 months worth of cans, for delivery just before the tariffs came down, and has multiple containers of these things stacked up in various locations. Forecast interest on the credit line being less than the tariff on the cans. At the industry level there is discussion around bringing can manufacturing to Canada, and aggregating demand from all brewers in Canada; each brewer free to sell their resultant production allocation to someone else, if they can source the cans for less. There is similar discussion around a standardized glass stumpy; but more complex, as more is involved. A stumpy can typically be used 40x and costs less/use.... but it needs collection, sanitation, is heavier to transport, and pallets cannot be stacked as high. Consumers will of course pay more for their beer, drink less, and have better choice ... but provinces are also expected to lower their taxes, and allow inter-provincial sales. Beer moving over distance via rail, then truck to the distribution center. The US .... eliminated entirely from the process. No involvement unless the landed cost of a can, inclusive of tariff and transport, is less than the cost of a locally sourced can. No exposure to US/CAD changes, no exposure to tariffs, no more drama. Not good, if you are a US worker making cans. SD

Interesting that Elon is now floating the idea of a tariff free Canada/US zone ... otherwise known as CUSMA. All good, but until the US actually experiences the tariff driven unemployment and damage that Orange Boy and Elon have caused, there is no need to rush. Orange Boy's threats are enabling things in Canada that wouldn't otherwise be possible (inter-provincial trade barriers, pipelines, infrastructure, NATO defense, etc.), there is a need to rebuild trust again, and frankly ... it would be better for all if the US entered into the coming midterms with significant stagflation and an own-goal recession. The US founding fathers put in controls ... let them work. Orange Boy is a melting ice-cube, his administration is incompetent, and the US economy is about to experience a world of hurt for an extended period. He turns 79 in June, the presidency ages people like dogs, and 'old man' denial is already prevalent. Sleepy Joe had his senior moment at 81 ... have to think that should the mid terms not go Trumps way, maybe Orange Boy turns into Orange Puddle. The entire world is paying the costs of Orange Boy's tariffs, and I think we would all like a return on our 'investment'. The world has moved on, and the US will have a much smaller place in it; not a bad thing. SD

Views differ, and that's OK. We're just of the view that in a tariff war; Musk should be both selectively and collectively targeted, and put in the penalty box for a major. When you are a guest in the other guys country, it's not a debate; if you can't respect his laws/culture, he has every right to disbar you. The US currently deports hundreds of people every day, this is no different, and Musk ain't above everyone else. SD

If Musk wants to play in their sandbox, he pays the cover charge; no different to Orange Boy's if you want to sell in the US you pay the tariff. If he doesn't pay ... it must be 'cause he can't afford it .. and the knives really come out. Supposedly worth bllions on paper .... but really ... all hat and no cattle. Same as Orange Boy. SD

+100. This is when experience matters, along with class; it's great to know what you're doing, but there are many for whom this will be a very negative and life changing experience. Take 10-20% of your after tax gains, and quietly give it away to animals/people who could really use it. SD

Look at how BTC performed ... today vs yesterday, yesterday vs day before (ie: crash and pre crash). Dropped from the open yesterday along with everything else, but recovered part of the drop during the day. Opened today at above what it closed at yesterday, and held it through another day of 1,600 point drop on the Dow; i.e. it was acting as a contra safe haven alternative to gold .... rising as the Dow falls. Why? exiting safe haven money created enough of a net inflow into BTC to raise the price on the limited supply. More grist for the adoption curve. The mystery is whether, in the near term, tariff related money outflow is greater than new money inflow from adoption; if net negative, BTC continues to grind down. The wild card is the fed response ... lower rates to boost liquidity, but drive tariff related inflation even higher. Or restructure the debt using BTC as the asset backing the note at some fixed price peg. Our own view is that BTC grinds lower until the fed acts. Err on the side of caution, and when that seems near ... buy back the BTC you've sold, collect on the close out of your swing trade, and simply hold. It might buy you a house. SD