SharperDingaan

You might want to lower your expectations around Winter 2023 crude oil and gas prices. The BoC raised interest rates by only 50bp this morning, versus the widely expected 75bp. The clear inference is that Canadian cumulative demand is dropping off, which also means less demand for crude and gas. At roughly 10% of cumulative US activity, most would expect something similar in the US. Texas NG prices are close to zero/negative in some places (Wawa) as there just isn't the egress capacity; can't sell if you can't get your product to market. US Diesel is also in short supply, and going into emergency protocol in some places, with the SPR down to 25 days of supply. Lot of local price 'drama', but the real solution to both these examples is lower demand. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Texas-Natural-Gas-Prices-Sink-Close-To-Zero.html https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/A-Diesel-Shortage-Is-Spreading-Across-The-US.html Oil markets are adjusting to the upcoming Dec sanctions. Russia/Iran has bought its own tanker fleet, and now delivers directly to China/India; with the US/Europe buying much of the refined distillate. A improvement in Chinese demand primarily benefits the black market, not the unsanctioned market. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Aramco-Oil-Markets-Are-Adjusting-To-Sanctions-On-Russia.html Point? There is still lots of volatility, and the potential for abrupt price changes, but the extremes are becoming increasingly less likely to occur. Not a bad thing. SD

There is an investment 'upside' to the financial arseholes. To them, it is all about appearances and their perceived 'rank' amongst their peers - money is just the counter used to determine it; so ... FOMO will continuously drive them into the market - as manic depressives! To make a gain on a swing trade, you need someone to buy your 'overvalued' asset, and sell it back to you when its 'cheap'. Could be a stock, or an apartment in that 'must have' neighborhood in a New York, London, or Paris. Opens the door to lots of possibilities ....... SD

Keep in mind that you're looking at a very narrow 'silo' (niche tech), and extrapolating that the rest of the world looks like this too. Of course, it isn't, and the technical also includes the accountants, finance folks, logistics/operations folks, engineers, etc., etc. A lot of technical folks will tell you that they love what they do - but when you are at the top of your game, and add in the reality and intense stress (admin, politics, finance, arseholes, etc.) that is part of it; it's really a time limited gig. As you move on, you try to keep doing what you were doing, but in a different way that is less intensive. Thing is, that when you identify so closely with what you do (would even pay to do it); when you lose it in a restructuring - you're suddenly adrift without an anchor. Going from a life of 100 mph to 0 mph, in an instant, is a leading cause of death - as many a grave in the graveyard can attest to. It's those healthy outside interests that save your ass; whatever they may be. If you had 100M most people would still 'work', but just in a different way. The volunteer 'doge' at the local art gallery, the minimum wage earner for a few weeks/month per year, through to the traditional full time philanthropist. It's not the money, it's the 'other interests' and interactions with other people. Simply making more money when you already have more than you could possibly need, is pretty redundant. Different PoV. SD

Different take .... The ranks of the retired are rapidly swelling, the % of portfolios in fixed income is rising, and if those 'retiree's' are not going to be sucking on the public purse - they need higher coupon rates on their bonds, and age friendly part-time employment. Rates back to historic norms (or higher), higher minimum wage, gig worker coverage in benefit plans and pensions, etc. Widespread change versus the current arrangement; those old folks vote, there are a lot of them, and if you want to get elected .... you will do as you are told. We have incredible tech (blockchain, smart contracts, CBDC, etc.) in the wings, waiting to go; but the disruption will be extreme. To implement we need a recession, and economic supports tied into its widespread roll-out. Retiring people early, guaranteed minimum income, retraining dollars, higher minimum wage, new housing tied to minimum wage affordability. Infrastructure rebuild as extensive as that following WWII, fiscal versus monetary policy, and largely domestically financed via higher coupon debt (bought by old folks using the interest to live on!). Less yield chasing in the equities market, and the volatility that goes with it. But .... very different to the monetary policy world that we currently live in, absence of moral suasion, and addiction to the fed 'put' that too many believe is a 'birthright'. Historically the nouveau riche very quickly become the nouveau poor when there is this level of disruption, absent the 'spherical bastards' (Zwicky) who will do well no matter what. https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=spherical bastard We would suggest that we're at the beginning of the next industrial revolution, and that implementation has begun. Great time to be a young person, with practiced 'spherical' skills! May we all do well. SD

You might want to wait until after the BoC and the Fed each hike rates by an additional 75bp on October 26, and November 02 respectively. Next weeks headlines will be all 'the central banks are clueless', it's creating a recession! - lots of whining about rate increases, lots of ranting, it's all sh1te!! Drop the market a good 3- 6% Comes December/January it will be more about that you actually own an oil stock, versus which one. But if the market is willing to sell to you 'cause it's all sh1te ....... well, who are we to argue SD

A job is worth $X, and the employer fills it as best as they are able. If the job is not client facing, the employer will explore trying to offshore it at a lower cost. If the job is client facing, the employer will explore trying to fill it with the minimum skill/experience mix at lower cost. As the employee, you have the skill set, and accumulating on-the-job experience. However, in most cases, the most the employer can incrementally pay you year over year is some % of the annual inflation increase. But after 3-4 years it will be cheaper/healthier/smarter for the employer to simply replace you entirely - with a new person who doesn't have the on-the-job experience that you have accumulated. Creating cost savings, promotion opportunities, 'fresher' workforce, etc. - rational. If the employee brings to the job more than is required, that's great, but he/she will not be paid for it. That 'extra' got you the job instead, as you were selected over all the others who also had the job requirements, but not the 'extra' you bring with you. The pay for that 'extra' is 'better marketability', and it is to the employee to capitalize on that. However, the job itself will pay $X - nothing more. Example: In academia, a course instructor is often a PhD student, guaranteed a minimum number of courses to teach. The pay/course ($X) is typically the pay for a full-time assistant professor divided over the annual expected teaching load, adjusted for benefits. Whether taught by a PhD student with little/no teaching experience, or a retired professional with multiple designations and years of industry/teaching experience, the pay/course ($X) is the same. The professional gets rewarded via his/her 'better marketability' instead; and the opportunity to teach multiple courses instead of just one - earning 2x $X, versus just $X plus some% increase. Not what most want to hear. SD

Technical people are subject to product life cycle. Technical skills get progressively obsolete as new things emerge; but the cycle can be extended by adding new technical expertise (maintenance capex, and/or 'managing' vs doing). There is always someone cheaper than you that can do the required tasks, and we shop the world to find them. The job pays $X for the skill-set, that is it; if you bring more to it, good for you - but you aren't getting paid for it. Your 'best' solution is to move on. 'Life' progress is driven primarily by maturity and ongoing ability to reinvent - if you have kids, reinvention occurs everyday; without kids .... you need to systematically make it. Those who have had to flee countries at some point, and rapidly think on their feet, have an advantage; they matured very quickly, and had to learn how to adapt in hostile conditions. For the successful, ongoing reinvention became as natural as breathing, and almost always they also had good people skills, and ideally a high EQ as well. In my early investment years I was utterly useless, lost my shirt multiple times over, and fought both everybody and everything. I was told multiple times that I would be a lot smarter to just give my money to someone else to manage, 'cause I was truly sh1te!. Once financial maturity finally caught up, returns caught up, and now they are routinely very good; however, CAGR since inception suffers a very large drag from all those early losses! Everyone is different. It wasn't until I became familiar with Nash Game Theory, CFA 'dogma', and Nassim Talebs various risk management books, that a unifying investment model fell into place. Until then I had many of the parts, and I had come to them on my own, but it was slow going. Strong in technical is a great start, and can take you a long way, but that's all it is. Longevity lies in the soft skills, and ability to act on them. SD

Any capable marketing person will tell you that equities are simply products (shares, funds, etc.), experiences (momentum, buy/hold, etc.), and stories (hot sectors, FANGs, etc.). Experiences and stories spread virally, we just collectively call it 'sentiment'. Valuations as primarily story machines; buy/sell versus some calculated value. Unusual levels of dissonance amongst the talking heads, is evidence that it is hard to sell experiences and story when you don't have a resonating story line. Most indexes are significantly down YTD, there are currently clearly more marketing people and HF's than are really needed, we are already 3 weeks into Q4, and it isn't looking good for job prospects. As fear within the marketing community rises, so will market volatility. We are being routinely presented with very good trading opportunities on every rate hike, both in NA and Europe; use them. If you trust your own processes, 5-10% on near every rate hike, adds up very quickly SD

The Ukraine has always been 'colorful', but like everywhere else there is a 'process'; you need a 'roof', put judgement aside, and go with the flow. In Russia, transporting vodka attracts lots of eyes; whereas transporting corpses not so much ... to minimize decomposition they are often frozen, stacked under tarps in open box cars, and a source of jokes. Our lad chose to transport our load in mislabeled plastic barrels, stack the corpses on top, and travel with them. Upon the expected 'inspection' he 'woke-up', scared the hell out of everyone, and asked for another bottle of Stolichnaya to replace his near empty one. He got kicked off the train, and our load traveled through without any disturbances. Damn near kissed the man, when I eventually met him! SD

Good write-up. Keep in mind that a forecast is 'dynamic', NOT static. Borrow from the corporate world .... Every company has a 3-5 yr strategic plan; and does things today so as to be where planned in 3-5 yrs. Typically the IPS of a institutional account, the 5-yr plan of a communist nation, and your goals for the wealth you are accumulating. Very boring, doesn't change much, but sets the strategic direction. Every company converts the strategic plan into a series of annual budgets, and ties incentives into quantified objectives. Actuals are measured against budget, and adjustments made as necessary. You do the same when you set your asset allocations, your margin, and periodically rebalance your portfolio. Every company manager will then apply tactical overlays, so as to outperform the budget expectation, and earn a bonus. If they work the manager gets rich, if they don't the manager gets fired &/or experiences a career setback. You do the same when you swing trade, sell options for income, etc. Point here, is that at any given time you may 'appear' to be trading, whereas in fact - you are doing anything but. Market conditions are continually changing, hence so are your tactical overlays, and your risk profile. These are also things that you can do yourself, and relatively easily .... so if you're paying someone a fee for this, they had better be giving you significant value add. Just as a dentist doesn't do his own teeth, it's also a good idea to periodically commission an 'independent' review; are the asset mixes still valid, tax fallouts, estate planning, etc. However keep in mind that the advisors are also trying to sell you something, if they were as good as claimed they would already be rich - and therefore NOT talking to you, and that you may very well know more than they do. Usually, the older and more 'grizzled' the reviewer the better, and a preference for female versus male - as mom/grandma aren't going to put up with inflated ego! Do your job well and you will meet all kinds of 'interesting' people, some more 'colorful' than others. You will also very quickly learn not to judge from appearances, and how the 'real world' operates. My kind of scum! Good luck. SD

FX devaluation works in your favor when > 50% of your wealth is held in a hard currency (USD, BTC, etc.) AND you are repatriating to a soft currency nation. If, over your holding period, the soft currency devalues by 50%+; the hard currency FX gain is enough to pay off the entire soft currency liability. All else equal; carry also gets easier over the hold period, as hard currency interest/dividends repatriate into progressively larger amounts of soft currency. To stop the process, simply margin against the hard currency asset, and apply the proceeds against the soft currency liability. To restore the position, simply borrow in soft currency and repay the hard currency margin. The reason why the hard currency asset is typically a second property in the 'west' that is debt free; something that escapes most realtors. It also gives you a 'safe house' in the hard currency nation, should you ever have to 'run'. That soft currency nation is devaluing for a reason; successful escape on a ship/plane is just step 1, step 2 is artful evasion of the subsequent hunt, step 3 is what do you do next. We have a lot of 'colorful' friends; all of whom are very good survivors SD

If you live in Europe, the HODL is actually a fairly good investment Your store of wealth is not trapped in any one country, and its value it likely to rise (in local currency) both from the coming halving, and local currency devaluation. Buying at todays low prices via a BTC dividend fund, also provides an additional margin of safety - there is a reason why 25% of our realized gains have been going into crypto. Not for everyone, but a very good training tool in 'real-world' finance. You will also meet all kinds of other 'interesting' people, who are truly masters at their trade! SD

Some time ago a poster pointed out that there are currently 3 global economies, and they are all out of sync; NA, Asia, and Europe. Like it or not NA is aggressively raising rates, it is the right response for NA, it is strengthening both USD and CAD, and the BoE is unable to match the rate rise. Europe is just not NA's problem, and both Euro and Asian banks are guaranteed by Europe's and Asia's various CB's (DSIB's, GSIB's, etc.).' Too big to fail ' just doesn't work anymore. Anyone's guess as to what the BoE does, but most would expect a steady GBP devaluation versus higher interest rates. For now, most would expect GBP to settle at around parity with the Euro. Long term (10 yrs+), most would expect further devaluation against the Euro. 02/18/2022 CAD/GBP was 1.73, CAD/EUR was 1.44. 10/09/2022 CAD/GBP was 1.52, CAD/EUR was 1.34. Over the last 8 months, the GBP has devalued 12% against CAD, and 6% against EUR. Most would also expect CAD/GBP to be a lot lower in 6 months, as CAD strengthens on higher oil prices and the UK economy declines still further through winter. Different PoV. SD

The SPR release has been hiding the near 1M boe/day US supply/demand mismatch. When the SPR release ends it will amount to another 1M boe/day cut in global supply, over and above the 2 M boe/day OPEC+ cut; sending crude prices up further. Doesn't look good for midterm re-elections when inflation is still 8%+, not really changing despite 200bp+ of rate hikes, and folks cant afford the gas to freely run their SUVs anymore. Post election most would expect a lot more Canadian south-bound heavy oil rail shipments, and a lot of new shale drilling to refill the reserve. The larger gas cuts on new wells feeding LNG exports, and the NA focus a snub on the SA refusal to delay cuts by a month. Additional carbon load from higher tar sands throughputs offset by lower carbon load from higher use of gas. Higher gas prices are also your friend. It's hard to sell the environmental story, when folks are having difficulties covering their costs every month, and you're driving gas prices past USD 6/bbl. Lose the midterms, and it changes the equation. ESG is fundamentally about how you make your profit, hence the appeal to younger generations - or governance. Whereas CSR is fundamentally about how you spend that profit amongst stakeholders, hence the appeal to the political world - or management. Governance directs, management does ... and management that doesn't, gets replaced. SD

Keep in mind that you still have to live with the great many who are losing their shirts, and progressively bankrupting. It isn't a pleasant experience, and it is very hard to meet friends and neighbors in the eye. Long time ago I helped a former Nortel client keep his option compensation 'funny money' through the collapse into bankruptcy. To minimize the wealth impact, we kept rolling the puts and spending the cash settlements on 1oz gold wafers at ridiculously low prices. When he eventually got packaged out and paid primarily in cash, he went to check his safety deposit boxes. The man came out with tears in his eyes. All around him, long-time friends and colleagues were losing their houses, their marriages, bankrupting, and in some cases even committing suicide as they'd lost everything. Yet here he was ... with a very good cash settlement, and literally boxes of gold wafers worth at least 4-5x what he had paid for them. Ultimately, he had to get help for a time. Today, there are a great many people who have benefitted from decades of Secret Santa. Point? It's not just about relative wealth, it's also about how you got it. SD

Our recent UK investment was three flats in London that were bought cheap because of structural damage. One of the uncles is a UK Quantity Surveyor, and we have a family friend who is also a structural engineer with experience in the UK construction industry. While the structural repair will be costly, it will be cheaper and quicker than demolish and replace, and the location warrants it. Upon completion we will be left with 2 very desirable modern flats, leased to our nephews, financed against a small mortgage. They can use the places themselves, or re-lease to someone else; but they will manage the properties - and will be responsible for cash shortages should they occur. Unique situation. I have always taken the view, that you plan today for where you would like to live 10-15 years hence - how long you will be there, what kind of property, what location, etc. After that it's just a matter of opportunities, and taking advantage as they materialize. Take advantage of the strong USD to buy up a few government bonds in the target country, and simply wait; at some point there will be a crash in the local property market, and that will be the time to go shopping. The exception to this, is if the target country has a history of ongoing devaluation. Different kind of animal. SD

"Blockchain does not solve real world trust problems. You still need to trust that the real world reflects what happens in the blockchain." Nah. Blockchain reduces corruption by making it harder to steal the money without trace; can't get off the off-ramp without leaving a trace to either your bank account, or the ATM that you used. And there is no point to substituting that old beater, if you cant get the money - trace free Of course there are ways around CBDC/blockchain, but it requires more sophistication, and ability to pledge security. Simply remove 30% of the 'little fish', and the level of corruption automatically declines. SD

Agreed, but right after WWII that wasn't the case; the black market thrived, and bribing to obtain all kinds of industrial 'favors' was a very common practice. People had to live, there was little infrastructure left, and they did what they had to do. Per the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) Germany (80) is less corrupt than Canada (74), and less corrupt than the Ukraine (32). While corruption is indeed the regional norm around the Ukraine, it is not the case in Estonia (74) where blockchain is in wide use. Most would expect that the financing to rebuild Ukraine would be primarily 'western', distributed using blockchain, and that corruption would average out at around 53 [(74+32)/2]; or about as corrupt as a Cypress (53) or a Saudi Arabia (53). Not great, but at least tolerable. https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021 Cypress has long been a Russian money-laundering hub, and Saudi Arabia has long been the source of a good chunk of western oil and gas. Corrupt, but not corrupt enough to avoid doing business with. SD

Most would expect that the Russia/Ukraine special operation is going to end up a draw. Ukraine part of NATO, all annexed Ukrainian lands back in Ukrainian control, a new iron curtain on the border, and an agreement on both sides to withdraw short-term nukes from the frontier. No incursions into Russia, and no prosecution for war crimes. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63189627 The flip side is that on cessation of hostilities, large parts of Ukraine will very much resemble large parts of Germany after the bombing of WWII. Should reinvestment and rebuilding with state-of-the-art infrastructure, do much the same as it did for Germany; Ukraine becomes a future dominant regional economic power in the east. Level of corruption not much different to what it was in Germany at the time. The mystery is the path to peace, and the path to regime change in Russia itself. Lots of volatility, but the end point would seem to be pretty much baked in. SD

Headline inflation will come down simply because of the way it is calculated; current month additions smaller than current month roll-off. Which is essentially, confirmation of the anecdotal observations that we see all around us everyday. Thing is, current month additions do not fall unless market liquidity and market confidence is reduced. This is where the CB's just do not see adequate evidence of it yet, so continue with the rate hikes and the QT; entirely different PoV. Hence CB's keep reducing until we will get a market seizure, and a step-down in market confidence. While CB's have lots of practice in restoring markets, the reduction in market confidence remains for a while. Hard to argue against. To quickly get to positive real rates of return again, we collectively need a big drop in the inflation rate, and less market liquidity and market confidence. If you are a sales person reliant upon market confidence to facilitate transaction occurrence and commission income ... this is terrible. Talking heads are in the marketing business. SD

There is a very big difference between selling to initiate a swing trade, selling at some risk adjusted target price, and selling just the beneficial ownership. We routinely do swing trades and win more often than we lose. We almost always lose on the risk adjusted target price - sold too early, missed the subsequent big move, didn't sell when we should have, etc. We almost always win on the beneficial ownership - sale of calls that didn't exercise, margining to withdraw value, etc. Swing trades are never 100% of the holding, at most it's a 50% sale to achieve MTM neutrality. It is one thing to take advantage of current market opportunities, but if you are not on board with the company's overall plan - you really shouldn't be in it, period. The bar that scorpioncapital speaks of below. Point here, is that we use the sell decision as primarily a portfolio wide risk reduction tool, not an end as to itself. Different PoV. SD

Family investments are little different to institutional investments; they require a very clear Investment Policy Statement, reviewed every 3 years. Purpose, objectives, risk constraints, etc. Our primary objective is training, and not a minimum return. We're in it to make money, and fund various objectives - but it's really all about transferring skills, and walking the talk. Our best return is an investment blowing up, that requires the uncles expertise and experience to fix - hence crypto and UK housing development as desirable long term investments. SD

People are talking their book. - the 'advice' to 'slow down' the interest rate hikes is just evidence that the hikes are working. People are teaming up to sell the collective 'we're too big to fail' argument, that justified the long standing fed 'put' - and the addicts are telling everyone that it's madness to discontinue it !!! It would seem that the economy is indeed slowing, liquidity is drying up, asset bubbles are deflating as rates rise - and that it is becoming harder to move the dog sh1te. CB actions are working. Thing is - this ain't the GFC anymore, and times have changed. There are far too many financial intermediaries for the coming financial innovations, we need a market driven cull, the most efficient way of doing that is by pulling the 'put' and letting the distressed go. We started the decade+ of CB intervention with the Lehman Brothers collapse, we end it with a repeat, restoration of moral hazard, and new financial rails. The collateral damage reducing the gap between the rich and the poor, and facilitating a social 'reset'. SD

The enterprising lad would be looking to a swing trade. Sell 1/2 a position into the returning open. Buy it back again after the November rate hike. Reinvest in additional shares for sale into the traditional Xmas 'Santa Claus' rally SD

Gas markets are local, not global; local demand will pull in supply, but the supply is limited to what can fit in the pipe. Without a sizeable local gas source, all else equal; the local gas price in Berlin will depend upon the number of feeder pipes into Berlin - and their diameters. The further you are from tidewater, the more you pay for the gas. Sure, lots of places have Shale - but the expertise to drill it is very concentrated, and often viewed as a strategic export. To use US drillers to open foreign fields, will typically be tied to use of US engineering, US shipping, US refining, yada, yada, yada. A significant issue for many of these locations. Everybody loves shale ... until they discover that they can light their tap water. Shale production is developed in remote areas for a reason - Europe is largely too populated. Europe's local markets may eventually pay global price for their gas, but it is going to take a very long time. And by that time - much of the demand will have switched over to electric. Local gas prices permanently higher for longer. SD