SharperDingaan

Quite agree with most of this; but Joe is also very much a momentum trader, and when BTC is at 94K it's cheap! and going past 106K next!! That volatility is systematically creating lower entry points, and multiple rounds of bragging as short term holds are profitably sold off at higher prices. I made 6K last week, what a hero! It's a great side hustle, all legal, and even pays better than dealing drugs !! Friends pile into the ETF 'cause if even this idiot can do it, I should be a lot better! The rising price is incidental. Jill six-pack is a lot more cautious; make enough to fund the down payment on a house, then focus on protecting the gain and actually buying the house. Money temporarily moving to the dividend paying ETF and blue-chip, then later into the housing market. If Joe wants to settle down at some point, Jill six-pack ultimately prevails. Like most others we're pretty sure BTC has some ways to run, but it'll be a bumpy ride, and the more bumps the more likely Jill's view prevails. It's just not the message in today's circulating cool-aid. SD

BTC is sold to retail based on its volatility .. the more volatility, the lower the entry price, and the more units the better. For average Joe Six-Pack the affordable vehicle of choice is the ETF; for the more sophisticated Joe it is options on MSTR. But when the BTC-ETF gets too expensive, Joe goes for volume and tends to switch quickly to cheaper crypto ETF's &/or shite coin, as we have seen with BTC around USD 100K. The volume effect works, so long as BTC continues to bring in the tide, and the cheaper crypto can float on that rising tide. Today's world. The obvious solution once the price of a BTC-ETF starts to materially affect it, is to spin off a less volatile dividend paying BTC-ETF (competing against blue-chip stock), that also materially reduces the price of the volatile BTC-ETF. Adoption improves, and we are temporarily back to the 70%+ prices rises. Second wave, etc. Thing is; that if the BTC-ETF is trading at around 5000: 1 (5000 units at $20 per 100K BTC), when BTC is at 200K, the BTC-ETF is $40, and at that price the dividend paying blue-chip is competitive. Retail money inflow into crypto both slows down and diverts into cheaper alternates, significantly reducing demand for BTC, and dragging on its price. Our point is that the game is changing; buy and hold 'forever' is unlikely to continue performing as it has. SD

It's worth keeping in mind that at USD 100K, BTC has to rise to USD 150K just to make 50%; and the higher BTC goes, the harder it becomes to get these returns. Then keep in mind that most of retail holds BTC via a BTC-ETF; when the price of the BTC-ETF approximates the price of blue-chip bank stock, and that blue-chip bank stock also pays a dividend .... a lot of wind spills out of the sail. SD

OBE, plus most of the CDN oil/gas patch. Combination of tax selling, fed/provincial/tariff threat response, and industry hate. The reality of course is that net of lower differentials, cost reduction via higher throughput, and a lower FX rate ... many of the despised are actually doing very well SD

Every aspiring CPA has to become proficient in their local tax code, and the expectation is 'The CPA Way'; hence the top 1-2 in a tax course is almost always offered an internship in tax at a prominent accounting firm. The other approach is to treat tax as theft, the year-end tax filing as your opportunity to redress the balance, winner takes all, and may the better thief win! Sadly, while this 2nd approach will ALSO get you into the top 1-2 of a tax course, there is no way you're going to offered an internship 'The CPA Way' sells tax as just another cost of doing business; tax avoidance perfectly acceptable, tax evasion ... not so much. However, an enterprising lad quickly recognises ..... that when your tax rate is > 50%; the taxman is now your majority partner!, and the higher the tax rate the better Take the premium to take stupid risk, spend the money enjoying yourself as much as possible, and when the losses occur - pass the vast bulk of them onto your majority partner Long a favourite of 'Smiling Jack', who has sadly now passed. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/oil-pioneer-gallagher-dies-1.165394 SD

Lower production costs = higher margins at current prices, and shorter payback periods. At payback periods < 1 year; maintenance capex is self-funding, as current spend has been recovered by year-end; thereafter the well produces at marginal cost, and lowers average production cost across the reservoir (ie: USD 35/bbl). Reduce the depletion rate, find a home for the rising gas/water cut, and that marginal cost production will also continue for quite some time. Drill baby drill, DOES mean more drilling, but NOT more NET production. Tier 2 inventory is not as prolific as Tier 1, typically depletes faster, and has a higher gas/water cut. To simply maintain an existing production level, the hamster wheel has to speed up, which means more drilling. Drilling technology advancements can slow it down for a time, but it has limitations. The self-fund thing ??? If the payback period is 1 yr, 2024 maintenance capex is 400M, and 2025 maintenance capex is 440M ... the actual 2025 new cash requirement is only 40M (425-400), and that cash saving can go into debt reduction, buy-back, M&A, dividends, etc. SD

Quite agree! but if you have the risk tolerance look at ACX.TO (Cathedral Energy Services, pre reverse split) Lovely low share count, much better shareholder base, and more presence in the US fields; reduced our PD and ESI to fund a larger position. If Trump does his thing, and she runs as expected ..... SD

Pig in a synagogue ... but look at Obsidian Energy (OBE) Dec-31-2023: 77.59M shares, 2175M capital, BV/Share of 28.03 (2175/77.6) Oct-31-2024: YTD buyback of 3.65M shares for 35M, or 9.59/share (35/3.65) YTD gain on share buyback and cancellation? 67.3M ...... 3.65*(28.03-9.59) ... and another 650K shares in November; another 13.9M gain on share buyback and cancellation. A small o/g company in an utterly sh1te sector, in the hades of Alberta oil sands, in a declining price environment, reducing its share count by 6% YTD ???, and booking a gain on cancellation approaching 81M ???? WTF!!!! And to add insult to industry ..... growing net production by > 10%/yr as well, year over year. Who the f*** do they think they are !!! Closed at CAD 9.09 Dec-31-2023, down 18% 2024 YTD as at close Dec-06-2024; gotta love the haters . But no .... this is a terrible sector .... lost 18% this year, and getting worse! ... carbon tax, Trump, Trudeau (blah, blah, blah). And no ... it's not a badly run company. Merry Christmas SD

Just keep in mind that investing in energy, commodities, or a BTC; is very different to investing in a BRK. With energy, you are a price taker, and attempting to forecast the rise and fall of economic tides. If you suck at forecasting (timing &/or price), your results will also suck; whether you invested in an ocean liner, or a row boat. Time horizon and risk management are your friends. Short horizons work against you, as does greed and the sizing of a position beyond your comfort zone. As the expectation is a hold over years ... if the potential reward isn't life changing, you need to walk away. Not what most want to hear, or are prepared to tolerate; hence it often ends in tears. Ideally, the company does not hedge prices beyond the protection of a committed drilling program. It is left to investors to adjust the size of their position to changing price environments, via swing trades or otherwise. Again, not what most want to hear, or are prepared to tolerate. However, do it right ..... and it can work out very well; as a great many hospital fund raising campaigns can attest to. Different PoV. SD

Pretty hard to beat any of the SU, CVE, MEG, etc. CAD/USD exchange rate is low and going lower, revenue is in USD, costs are in CAD, and there is a major hate on anything 'dirty oil'. Trump does his thing, politicians change, pendulums swing, and all the girls clean up very well. Over a 3-4 yr investment horizon, most should should be 2-3 baggers before dividends, and after buybacks. If you have the risk tolerance look at the smaller players, as M&A consolidation is inevitable; enjoy the ride, but don't fall in love. The model assumes any one position big enough, so that an eventual takeout proceed (net of tax) and reinvested in a BCE, will throw off a dividend for life > 1/3 of salary. Swing trade as you please, but keep the eye on the prize. To put up with the drama, you need to get paid well! SD

Sure China is a 7.2M boe/d consumer (consumes 11.3 and produces 4.1 M boe/d); and same as the US, is both an exporter and importer of different grades. The reality is that OPEC+ is pushing for higher prices, and has agreed to hold back 3.65M boe/d for 12 months. It doesn't really matter whether one actually believes the number; even 60% of it, is still a big number. At the same time, Exxon is stressing that 'drill baby drill' ain't going to dramatically ramp up US production; as without new inventory, it's primarily just going to reduce the cost base while replacing existing depletion ... at a material increase in gas production. For most wells, during the first 1-2 years of capex recovery, break-even is around US 65/bbl; thereafter the well produces at just the marginal cash cost. OPEC+ floods the market ... price drops, drilling stops, there are layoffs, production blows-down, and capex/margin go into buybacks/M&A/dividends; bring it on! Whereas if OPEC+ maintains price at around US 65-75/bbl, or higher ... everybody lives peaceably. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/article-opec-delays-oil-output-hike-until-april-extends-cuts-into-2026-sources/ https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Exxon-Dont-Expect-Drill-Baby-Drill-Under-Trump.html Tariffs will both reduce Chinese exports and net energy consumption; same again if the Chinese power grid can actually support all the EV charging. Hence, most would argue that with the continuing OPEC+ overhang, and diminishing future Chinese demand; it's far smarter to simply put production into blow-down. Cut maintenance capex and put it into buybacks and dividends; the Exxon argument. If you think producers have found religion, o/g is a promising investment; whereas if you think that isn't the case ... well, we have a market for that SD

EV can't charge when the grid goes down... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3289629/xinjiang-power-swing-threatened-chinas-nationwide-electricity-supply-august https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-rapid-renewables-rollout-hits-grid-limits-2024-07-04/ Sure ... its fixable. But until then EV is going to remain a hard sell, sold on ever deepening price cuts. There is a reason why EV battery makers are steadily going to the wall. SD

You might want to do some actual research. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/crude-oil-production China is currently the 7th larger producer in the world at 4.1M boe/d ...... AHEAD OF Brazil, Iran, Kuwait, Mexico, Norway. SD

Trimmed our obe and drilling positions with proceeds going into the more junior o/g dividend payers @ > 1O% cash yields. BTC now a core position of X units that we're swing trading around. UBS remains untouched. Now just a dividend collector and swing trader reinvesting proceeds in TBills & capital repatriation. Get the more exotic bucket list stuff in while we can, as the possibilities are closing in. SD

BTC is just a different form of money. At this point most people who know anything about it recognise that. UBS is cash equivalent, little different to a TBill. Store of value and unitization but not a means of payment. The difference vs other blue chips is the degree of CB willingness to intervene with market support on the upside. Same as all the other GSIBs, USB is guaranteed by ALL the Basel CBs, but this one also has the benefit of a recent severe f*** ** in Switzerland that damaged a lot of reputations. The Swiss central bank needs to demonstrate a 'Swiss Finish', and heaven and earth will be moved to make it happen. 18 months out they will have done that, after which it becomes just another GSIB, and the money status drops away. Arguably a blue-chip equity marginable at 70%, or provincial bonds marginable at 85% are also a cash equivalent. We just don't think of them that way as it is not accounting convention (asset sale in a liquid market, versus borrow against asset collateral) Thereafter cash is basically fiat (USD), held as a cheap way of paying for things. Portable, and most everyone accepts it, everywhere in the world. SD

It is Germany, the labour force reduction will be achieved via a buyout. Some cash now, the rest via a full pension deferred until age 66, all of it guaranteed by the Bundesbank so that there is no risk of not getting paid. Those young enough take the buyout, and work for someone else ... 'double-dipping' all along the way. SD

Too early for us at this point, as we would fund from a sale of our UBS position 18 mo's out. Preference is for the chemicals, bullets, artillery shells, drone, and rocket consumables ... the cheaper and lower tech the products, the better. Between now and then, a lot of NATO 'Airbus' type standardisation and industry restructuring, and the set-up of production on multiple continents. Big brothers doing most of the hardware and guidance, multiple little brothers doing most of the consumables. SD

All our UBS was bought at the time of the CS merger; bias as we have a very low cost base, a free put on the Swiss CB, and treat UBS as a CHF denominated cash equivalent. We think the incremental CS benefits still have 1-2 yrs to play out, following which UBS will be pretty much the same as every other major European DSIB. Outside of UBS we would look at the arms merchants, subject to a payback period of < 5 years. Given that NATO is being revamped, and member spending pushed > 2% of GNP/year, even a monkey should do well; the short payback steadily reducing European exposure, should conflict break out early. The hope that nothing happens, but borrow from the pages of German rearmament in the run-up to WWII. Different PoV, SD

UBS should be on there as well. We're a little biased , but if you must own a euro bank, this one also offers the benefits of the forced CS merger as well as the protection of a GSIB condom. SD

The reality is that the European way is not the US way, and Europe is a lot less homogeneous than the US. They ain't about to change and It's just a different approach; if it's not for you ... they'll tell you to get on a plane, and please f*** **f 27 sovereign states in the EU, and a shit show to govern. Yes governance will inevitably f*** ** from time to time, yet despite all the ongoing and material ADVERSE disruptions over the last 50+ years .... Europe hasn't experienced another great depression? The Europeans continued to enjoy a very nice life ... because, just maybe, the Largarde's/Draghi's of the world are actually very good at what they do ?? Just a different PoV. SD

The drug problem has always existed, everywhere in the world. It was tolerated 'cause it was fairly small scale, controlled by organised crime in return for keeping it 'contained', and was fairly easily kept out of the media of the day as few wanted to talk about it. Quite a bit different today. Make small quantities legal, and you clear a lot of court time for the more serious crimes. Costs vs benefits. Safe injection, clean and free drugs, and you save a lot of lives. Compassion vs Not In My Back Yard (NIMBY). Better social supports and you will have fewer addicts. Fix vs cover up the problem. For those caught, the traditional solution has been an automatic draft into the military; mercenaries or reservists determined by the seriousness of the crime. Nations need cannon fodder, addicts have a place to go, hard-cases end up either dead or very good (both useful), and prisons have space again. The solutions are there ... societies? ... not so much. SD

They were just being human. Denying the possibility of an armed conflict was comforting, so like a deer they froze in the headlights ..... and pretended that everything was OK. Same thing happens in mania's ... US housing, GFC and negative interest rates, etc. It's also why grizzled bastards are so hard to kill .... they survived the first time and are now experienced at it. SD

Most don't recognise that the 5,525 mile US/CAD border ALSO includes the 1,538 miles of Alaska. ADDITIONALLY, there is the 151,000 miles of coast - the vast majority of which is in the arctic. Over these distances and conditions, one needs all weather drones with infrared detection, and the ability to call in on-the-ground teams to investigate (Polar Bears and people look the same from way up) https://www.geographyrealm.com/interesting-geography-facts-about-the-us-canada-border/ https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-402-x/2012000/chap/geo/geo01-eng.htm It's also two conversations .... what are you doing on the CDN southern border?, and what are you doing on the northern border? Good chunk of both would qualify as defence spending, and most would expect Predator drones to need arctic modifications/maintenance (ie: Bombardier). The third conversation is coastal defence. Develop and lay underwater sensor nets in the arctic passageways, and manufacture hunter/killer submarine drones that can use them. Buy/build icebreakers, forget the conventional sub purchase, and rely on state-of-the-art NATO submarine patrols for the rest. Ukraine was able to build sea drones ... no reason why Canada could not develop similar underwater drones (Bombardier?) for use in arctic waters. Defence spending. https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/2024/07/canada-launching-process-to-acquire-up-to-12-conventionally-powered-submarines.html Threaten the economic club ... and maybe Canada gets its act together. SD

Talk to those who travelled within Europe during the inter-war years. Paris, Berlin, Milan, etc. in the mid 1920's was quite something, and is often a reference point in the memories of those still around. We may well be in a similar period today ... so if the Trans Siberian or Orient Express is on the bucket list ... experience it and/or get it done while you still can. The age-old survival tactic is family on every continent, and savings/wealth in their local currency. Whoever wins, there is family in that country/continent, and the means by which to bring you over and help you re-establish. While your life will be done, you're still alive (assume conflict survival), and it is your kids that will benefit. In today's age, we simply have more/better tools. Today's comfortable living arrangements are just baubles; take time-out to appreciate it while you have it, 'cause you could lose it all tomorrow. If you need convincing .... simply talk to those in Ukraine; until the first Russian missiles fell, many in Kiev were also absolutely sure than it would never happen. First, borrow a page from the cockroaches - and survive; the thriving can come later! SD

All that a successor government need do to tighten border enforcement, contract a Bombardier to build drones for Canadian conditions, use them to patrol the southern and maritime borders, and make the expense part of Canada's 2% NATO spending requirement; tariffs exempt on both o/g and electricity. Manufacture 155 mm artillery shells and ATACMS consumables for NATO under licence, and maybe other good things happen too. Nobody likes freezing in the dark. A tighter border may well up saving money too; as drugs and guns flow primarily from the US, and not the other way around. Tighter borders and there's less pressure on health care and people shooting each other. SD