SharperDingaan

The concern is that technology advancements are threatening US reserve currency status, and ability to continue borrowing at low rates. The current slash and burn within the federal service, and the creation of a BTC reserve, suggests that the US is already having difficulty refinancing at favourable rates, and that it is expected to get worse. A stablecoin is just a new coin, over-collaterised against a pile of junk. Or basically a pinata, resting on its ability to maintain a collateral value above the value of the stablecoin issued. Beat on the pinata hard enough ... to break the peg ... and the pillage will be very good Stablecoin 2.0 The monetary equivalent is the gold standard; USD as the stablecoin, bricks of gold as the collateral, at a fixed peg of 'X' USD per ounce of gold. The stablecoin 3.0 version is the BTC standard; 'new' USD debt, exchangeable into BTC at whatever the current market value is. Hold this 'new' debt and you are immune to interest rate and FX fluctuation, so long as the US has sufficient BTC. The actual meaning behind .... "We are going to keep the US the dominant reserve currency in the world and we will use stablecoin to do that." Hell of a trick! but of course ...... every other country/corporation in the world can also do this same thing as well. All good for the future value of BTC SD

No short book. We just sell down existing equities at today's high price, and reinvest in BTC-ETF at today's low price. Trump does his thing, tariffs reduce earnings and lower the market; BTC rises as adoption progresses, and more whales enter. Periodically sell down BTC-ETF at tomorrows (expected) high price, buy back the sold equities at tomorrows (expected) low price. Realised long gain on the BTC-ETF, realised short gain on the equities, increase in cash. Our risk is that Trump suddenly finds civility; pretty sure that isn't much of a risk! SD

The BTC strategic reserve has actually been in place ever since the silk road seizure; all that really happened here, was that is was formally transferred to the federal reserve. No cost to the taxpayer .... so the reserve must grow from BOTH ongoing criminal/drug seizures, AND BTC lending/options trading via the CME. The BTC options and futures markets need to be a lot bigger/deeper than they currently are ... and to do that requires a sizeable beneficial interest in BTC, made available via a derivative with a reliable counter party Any one whales volatility influence is a function of their rarity, ownership, and size. The more whales, the less volatility any one of them can create. The more institutional ownership the more professionally managed whales there are. When everyone is big, it needs a very large whale in order to make an impact. All adds up to less volatility and more professional management as the BTC market matures; still possible to manipulate, but a lot harder to do. Tesla is just an example; all that is really needed is a sustained downturn in tech sector earnings over 2-3 quarters. Firing offence if you work in one of these companies and are actively shorting the company (or using a derivative) to benefit from a downturn. However ..... perfectly OK were you to be in a BTC-ETF, likely to benefit from that same downturn in the tech sector The whole world hates Tesla, but it ain't too happy with the other 6 either ... and tariffs aren't good for future earnings. The more that the indexes drop, and the more relative weakness in tech earnings ... the more alluring the BTC-ETF looks; life is good Just a different POV. SD

The 'summit' was a nothing burger, as evidenced by BTC falling 5% after the event. BTC rises/falls based on money flow. Include BTC in portfolio allocations; flow goes up and prices rise (ie: adoption). Put the global economy in the shitter, and the opposit occurrs. The more whales holding BTC the less volatile it becomes. Price rises (in fiat terms) primarily because the fiat is devaluing, and the US is becoming progessively more unstable. Hence, the more disruptive Trump is, the richer we all get; all hail the right hand leg of a long straddle BTC will really jump when one of the big techs collapses; today its the magnificent seven PLUS BTC; just as when an I-Bank collapses, the rest become scum ...... and whatever remains ..... benefits. Put a sustained global bank run on Tesla, and it WILL collapse; and a lot of nations/competitors will be more than happy to give it a nudge towards bankrupting Elon. Nobody likes MAGAlomaniacs All good for BTC. Just a different POV. SD

This whole thing is much like it must have been, were you one of the major players in "The Big Short". Cannot see what will prevail, 'cause it has not happened yet;, therefore it will not. So when the pennies do eventually drop ..... Tesla shares are down 25% in 2 months, and vandalisation of anything Tesla is now a badge of honor. US foreign sales are down significantly since the last quarter, and all will start reporting in about another 9 weeks. How do you think that goes on the indexes? How do you think it goes if there are also tariff related layoffs all across the US, and some of them are sizeable? How does it go if Elons firings, also result in instances of delays in receiving benefits? The most effective way out of this is to burn down the bullys house, and we all know that Trump is thin skinned. One might be unable to speak out ..... but there are lots of ways by which one can discretely benefit should it not go well. Very strange place .... SD

Tariffs apparently aren't going well for Orange Boy ... markets are falling, Canada isn't playing the game, ... and tariffs are now biting. Apparently auto plants can also be relocated within a month, along with their supply chains ..... It's supposed to be a 'negotiation'! , you f****** aren't supposed to actually do it !!! We give you a carve out, you reciprocate .... you don't refuse to remove all your tariis until we remove all ours !!!! Welcome to elbows up!; we're told that Times Square looks very pretty in candlelight High unemployment and inflation are coming to a neighbourhood near you, and the more Orange Boy rants ... the more certain its arrival. Sadly, there isn't going to be change until a great many are hurting badly. SD

No bets on misery thanks. It's one thing to passively prosper off of adverse volatility via a long straddle ... but prospering by hitting some minimum level.of mass unemployment by time X is just wrong. SD

It only needs 2-3 states to fail, and panic will do the rest. Social media is a bitch, and even Elon will not be able to prevent a viral spread. SD

We just call it a surcharge. Pay up the additional 25% or freeze in the dark. Your choice ☺ SD

Within 6 weeks most of the US auto sector will be laid off. Agriculture and industry will also be laying off in a big way as there is way too much capacity for the now smaller market. And many will not be able to claim benefits, or receive them ... cause Elon fired those who make it happen. The laid off also aren't going to do the work illegals did, or for the same pay; so expect to pay a lot more for what you get. Six weeks in, even if Trump suddenly lifted tariffs as a 'bad idea', most nations would be intentionally slow in removing them. The US just isn't trusted, and it's a lot better to simply keep up the pain. Schoolyard bully's don't change until they experience fear, and the bullied need a win. Expect rough play as par for the course. SD

The smarter thing is sell off today, park in cash for 2 months or so, then buy back your positions at a much lower price. Mass US unemployment, big jumps in the daily cost of just about everything, and big reductons in Q1 international sales ... doing the talking for you. SD

It also costs a lot less, and is quicker to build, if it can terminate around Montreal and thereafter tankers transport it out via the St Lawrence Seaway. SD

Long puts. Give up the premium as insurance. SD

Trump f***** **, that's all there is to it. Didn't get the minerals, will still have to support Ukraine via NATO, and can't fire Vance as a way of taking the blame .... what a loser All that's left is an old man flapping his gums, and sycophants trying to put the best possible spin on domestic consumption. SD

There is nothing wrong with being long US equities; the world just doesn't need as much of them, and much of the money has alternative domestic opportunities. All that a money manager need do is hold puts on the indexes; thereafter he/she could care less if the equity dump crashes the market, as the loss is made back on the put gains. Ain't insurance great SD

It will be interesting to see how US tariffs actually get applied to Canada's oil. Canada's main refinery is located in Sarnia (Ontario), and is fed from WCS travelling cross country via the Enbridge mainline. As oil/gas within North America is fully integrated; to get around the Great Lakes, the Enbridge mainline travels south into the US, from which two branches come together in Michigan, and the refinery feed stock re-enters Canada at Sarnia. Two ways the tariff on this supply could go. 1) Sarnia bound crude is exempted as it wasn't exported by Canada, it's just passing through the US. It reflects NA oil/gas integration, and there is essentially no change. 2) All the mainline crude is tariffed, all users pay more for the feed-stock, and both expanded rail and the Energy East pipeline get built as mega-projects. All pipe in Canada, all built by Canadian steel and labour only, and all US involvement intentionally shut out wherever practical. We need the work, and we don't need you .... The attractions are that most inter-provincial trade barriers have now been removed, and to get the benefits Canada needs to be building mega-projects. It is also preferable to take a war-time approach; fund it via fiscal policy, ONLY via tax-advantage CAD bonds, ONLY eligible to CAD residents. Canadian patriotism finding an outlet via bond purchases, interest earned staying at home, and the whole country benefiting from confederation type renewal projects. Total cost applied to Canada's NATO defence spending, as we can now deliver fuel and weapons, in scale, on both coasts. Helpful if Canada ALSO produces NATO artillery shells and fuels, delivered from east coast ports. Defence spending doesn't have to be bullets, rockets, ships/planes, troops on the ground, etc ..... and if it results in NATO being able to diversify its North American ordnance production in the process ... so much the better for everyone. Sticking it to the US, a bonus SD

Most would expect that from this point forward ... Europe's defence will be to Europe to do, the US simply supplying arms and infrastructure from outside the conflict zone. As the US just did to the Ukraine, expect it to do the same to Europe as well. Our own view is European troops/weapons in Ukraine, no restrictions on their strike ability, and wholesale targeted destruction of essential Russian energy infrastructure; no different to the US in Gulf War I, II. Europe goes to war about once/century; appease Russia now, and it's Europe next, with the weapons contributing to the NATO 2% budget target. Trump gets NATO contributions up ... Few dispute that Europe and Canada need to get their sh1te together; they just don't have to be 'American', and more Asian/ME trade is preferred over American. Tariff wars enable that, the changes are long-term, and frankly we're all a lot healthier for it. US trade deficits occur because the US buys more abroad than it sells, and the FX rate is not allowed to 'float'; tariffs pressure a move to a floating FX as the solution to domestic unemployment. Trump gets nations to wake up ... When rich people suddenly start seeking economies, it is a sign that they are in a financial squeeze. USD has competitors, quite a few would take great delight in seeing the US flounder as capital exits into other instruments, and capital controls are a lot harder to execute in today's world. Capital flight is just as destructive as bombs/rockets, but leaves the infrastructure intact. Trump should be careful throwing stones .... Tariffs are going to happen, the US is going to seriously regret Trump, and it will be what it will be. The US public voted for him overwhelmingly, and will wear the consequences; but best if it does not travel abroad for a while. The US is toxic, and 'ugly American' is not a recommended 'look'. SD

Roughly 40% o/g, 40% BTC-ETF, 20% cash. Much of the BTC-ETF bought back late this week. Sadly, the more Trump opens his mouth, the more comfortable we have become with the coming tariffs. Today's events around Zelensky just adding nails to the coffin. SD

Supposedly tariffs kick in on Tuesday; most would expect Canada to counter with the below tariffs almost immediately. https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2025/02/list-of-products-from-the-united-states-subject-to-25-per-cent-tariffs-effective-february-4-2025.html So far, the major indices are down roughly 5% since Trump was inaugurated, and many of the 'magnificent 7' are now around November lows; the more significant their crypto exposure, the poorer they have done. You can delay a tariff implementation only once; do it twice or more and you just come across as weak ... cannot get your sh1te together.... all big hat, no cattle, etc. Impose tariffs; US Auto shuts down within a month, and there are widespread layoffs throughout the US. Within 6-months there are multiple cancelled capital projects, wide-spread mortgage defaults, material losses at the banks; and scaled back treasury auctions in response to insufficient demand. No amount of 'gas lighting', 'distraction', or 'fairy dust', able to hide the unemployment misery... and the foreign press happily highlighting it. https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/gaslighting First time out the extorted were fearful of the consequences of NOT complying. Now? it's continue to talk... but the consequence is an immediate bench clearing, punch hard, keep punching, and fight to win; ALL the extorted, ALL at once. Simply 'cause when a US trade signature isn't worth anything, there's nothing to lose. We live in Interesting times. SD

Most would argue that he's drunk on power; I am invincible! At one time he was very, very good .... now he's just another idiot savant, flying high on rapidly melting wings. Every round of cuts, a new roll of the dice betting on the unsuccessful reprisal of thousands of people; then one day the dice comes up against ..... SD

Social media only works for you so long as you continue to deliver the goods; fail, and they start to trash talk you ...... BTC sold off in a very big way today; liquidity being accumulated ahead of Monday. Given that BTC price is also a function of liquidity... as soon as the tariffs are announced, expect another big drop. Leaks don't get onto social media unless the platform owners allow it ... and so far, with all these clumsy dismissals... it has been remarkably quite. Orange Boy needs to turn it around within days .... or the honeymoon is over and the grenades start going off. Dance, Orange Boy ... dance! Is Elon the boss, or are you just the car jockey working for tips? Twitter wants to know!! SD

US optimism will be quite different a month from now when Detroit and most US car manufacturing goes silent. Mass layoffs as soon as tarifs are imposed on Monday. Donny tried this before and Dow futures dropped 600 points+. Not mentioned in the propaganda is that tariffs were immediatly halted before the market opened. The reality is that most people are not high tech or professionals, and the shitty jobs pay the bills. Get rid of them in quantity, and you risk a good chunk of your population turning on you ... and stoking the flames is fair game. The US routinely does this everywhere else ... and payback is a bitch. Orange boy exists to be used, the view outside of the US is very different, and 'sticking it to Americans' is now widespread. The only certainty is Orange Boy's rising paranoia, and its exploitation thereof. SD

You might want to look at the Pathways Alliance CCS Project. https://pathwaysalliance.ca/foundational-project/carbon-capture-and-storage-ccs/ The method injects large amounts of CO2 into a formation to re-pressure it, and drive CO2 from the high-pressure bores through to the low pressure collectors. The CO2 acts as a liquid dilutant, collecting oil along the way to the collectors, that ultimately flows out the well head as an oil, and sizeable CO2 gas cut. It is a tertiary recovery method and will typically produce another 10%+ out of an existing reservoir (depending upon its porosity). The injected CO2 can either be chemically locked into the reservoir (Alberta), or injected until it flows out of the collectors again; at which point both the injectors and collectors are capped with concrete. To make it economical, requires a carbon tax that pays producers to sequestrate, and massive amounts of CO2 that have to be piped in. The real money is in the disposal fees, the additional oil/gas produced is essentially a by-product. The pipe is a utility, and the CO2 sequestrated counts towards Kyoto agreements. Environmentalists rant as the Kyoto intent was to reduce C02 emissions by not producing C02, versus the technological solution of removing CO2 by locking it in the ground. Zealots on both sides. Minimal impact on 'peak oil', other than delaying the date (ongoing depletion approximately on par with new production). It primarily increases the total gas produced, and turns the reservoir into a giant paid CO2 sponge. Both are environmental pluses. Good for the industry as it extends the economic life of reservoirs by multiple decades. SD

The reality is that Americans voted for Orange Boy in all categories; like it or not, one has to respect the decision. Tariffs are sold to the US public as a 'negotiation tactic'; outside of the US it's just plain old-fashioned blackmail ..... by an old man who thinks he's a mafia 'don of dons'. Yet in most mafia movies, it's almost always the old don who gets replaced .... and by a series of new ones. Orange Boy is 78; Biden was 81 when he had his 'senior's moment' in the election debates .... Orange Boy may well not even make it to the end of his term. An opportunity Real 'don of dons' do not make career ending mistakes. Trying to take over Greenland, or make Canada the 51st state; is a act of aggression as per the NATO defence treaty ... that automatically triggers a NATO response. Greenland is a DENMARK protectorate, and each of Denmark, Canada, and the US are members of NATO. Declaring retaliation on yourself? .... planning on pulling out of NATO .... and letting NATO ordinance fall on the US? .... or just planning on leaving the world early Blackmail only works if the target can't afford to call the bluff, your security is very good, and the multiple 'targets' can't gang up on you. But it's a whole different thing when the other 'targets' are also don's, and also very well versed in both blackmail and the tenets of the Dictator's Handbook. You may be big and strong, but economics is very much like air; restrict it, and you suffocate. The US is toxic; per the tariffs, all across Canada every business has been actively looking at minimising it's exposure to the US. Sometimes it's diverting to non-US suppliers, sometimes it's financial engineering (with government assistance), and sometimes its just relocating. Sometimes the tariffs are actually beneficial, as things that were never possible previously are now practical, and in scale. It's the same story all across Europe, and it will be US workers who pay the price. Foreign buyers do not have to roll maturing US T-Bills, and there are a multitude of similar instruments in other currencies; as with the weaponization of tariffs, money flows can be weaponized as well ... the cost of which is interest. The big difference today is existence of BTC, and the BTC-ETF; the more that nations go at each other, the more valuable these become. Trade partners do not have to maintain their US FX rate; again, as with the weaponization of tariffs, FX rates can be weaponized as well ... the cost of which is a strangle on US exports. When the domestic European landed cost of a Tesla is more than a high-end BMW, it ain't selling; and if you ain't allowed to manufacture in Europe ... that market 'shut-out' is permanent. Our sandbox, our rules ... goes both ways. Today, a US signature on a trade agreement is no longer trustworthy. One simply files for a tariff resolution as per the existing agreement, walks away until the existing agreement is near expiry, and retaliates at will however is deemed necessary ... netting the penalties against whatever you are owed. Tariff threats do nothing more than raise unemployment on both sides of the border; there is no 'negotiation', as your signature is worthless. Much as in a bar-fight, if you're friend has too much to drink and insists on getting into a fight ... there's not a lot you can do; stay out of the way, run a betting book on the outcome, safely get him/her to an emergency room/dentist afterwards, and get them home, is about as far as it goes. Whatever made on the betting book given to the bar owner to pay for damages. A lot of Orange Boys objections are actually valid (defence spending, government waste, money-laundering, DEI, etc.); but there are better ways of going about it, that don't create as much bad will. All that a retaliatory G-7 need do is selectively tariff anything Musk related out of the market, ban Musk platforms within their borders, boost spending on their public communication vehicles (BBC, ABC, CBC, etc) and re-categorise that spending as military (countering cyber influence). NATO spending as % of GNP rises, and if the Tesla share price collapses .... so much the better. Orange Boy isn't going away, but he can be used .... SD

The problem with gaming is that there are always people screwing up the pay-offs, and their 'wins' may well be counter-productive to yours. Trying for a 'golden-age' measured by the level of exchange indexes, by risking levels of unemployment and poverty on par with the 1929 Great Depression, is just stupid. You send us to hell, we're taking you with us; in Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). Nobody has to roll over maturing US T-Bills, there are a great many alternatives, and there is now a growing need to spread the risk. The US Fed may well be raising rates because it is already hitting a debt-wall, that is only avoidable .... so long as USD remains the dominant reserve currency. Reduce these roll overs in a big way ... and the game changes. Negatively target the indexes to give it a nudge .... The way out is to end it as soon as possible. SD