cwericb

This has been a long time coming hasn't it? But it seems that the shi* has finally started to hit the fan and the chickens are beginning to come home to roost. Given the number of news articles that have been published in the past few days I think that this story is finally going to start to snowball to the point where it will get the exposure it deserves. The next few weeks could be very interesting. Does anyone know if this case has actually gone to trial or is this just discovery? Or is it done differently in tue US?

Good grief if they can build soft walls at super speedways to protect race drivers travelling well over 200 mph surely someone could figure out that those stantions need to be padded. If the police are looking at charging someone in this matter perhaps they should be discussing a negligence charge with the forum owners. I mean, it doesn't take a genius to see the danger that they present.

Eva Mendes !!

In Canada we can contribute a cumulative $5,000 per year into a Tax Free Savings Account. The name "Savings" is a little misleading as it can be used for most types of investments. So with the maximum now up to $15,000, how do board members use their TFSA - agressive of conservative? Since neither losses nor gains effect taxes, do you use it for your riskier investments or do you put in investments that are reasonably sure to produce a gain? Being optimistic, there is unlimited upside and limited downside ($15,000), but a tax loss takes some of the sting out of a bad decision.

Interesting quote from a school board meeting in Virginia "The recycling issue was further explored during the meeting. The company contacted, Fibrek Recycling Plant, pays $115 to $120 a ton for office waste. "I don't know, with gas prices the way they are, if it's worthwhile," commented Ms. Kimble." Among other things it tells an idea of what they are paying for waste and from the last report it seems they get the same for RBK as NBSK.

Rather interesting that this conversation is going on at the same time as a little deja vu is taking place on the Yahoo Fairfax board. http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_F/forumview?bn=24033 That board had been more or less dormant since the NYSE de-listing with posts only now and again, but over the past few days has become more lively under the thread "Concerns about Fairfax Unfounded". It's almost like we were back in 2006-7. Perhaps some board members here are defending FFh over there as there have been a few well informed posts over the past few months. Perhaps some of them should be invited over here if they haven't found us.

I wondered if that was the case. I was just looking at the chart again and FBK stayed at about $1.00 for five months and it was only about 2 months ago that it jumped by 40-50%. This just strengthens my curiosity about the timing of the insider buys and makes me think that there could be good things to come and perhaps not all that far in the future.

So two of the smarter guys on this board sold, which for me would be a strong indication that it may be time to get out. But on the other hand, we finally see some serious insider buying at long last and I have to ask myself why would Cote spend $180,000 of his own money buying shares at $1.40+ unless he was pretty sure there was an upside? Until I saw that, I was thinking like Myth, that this might be a good place to build up a little cash. But I find the timing interesting. With FBK sitting at $1.00 for so long you have to wonder why Mr. Cote would choose to buy shares at this point? I wouldn't suggest that he was aware of anything concrete that might cause a jump in share price, but he could well have indications that there could be something happen in the near future that would positively impact share price. For instance, if he knew an offer was being made for the company, a share purchase at this time would probably be insider trading. However, if he knew that there were a couple of companies seriously sniffing around, then that would be fair game would it not? Or perhaps he just feels that the company is undervalued and knows that the company will be taking steps to improve its image in the eyes of investors in the future. Either way, I think I will stick around for a bit here.

Re management buying shares. Now that's interesting because the more management has personally invested in this company, the more incentive they would have to promote and shop FBK because if the company goes, their jobs probably go as well. However if they can make enough from their personal holdings then that may be a different story. Considering that they could have bought in for a lot less a few months ago this would seem to be a good omen for shareholders. I wonder if an offer is in the wind?

"Do you have links to posts from that past to get up to speed on that story? Specially I would like to know the roles of Hempton, Loeb, Cohen and Einhorn. I also wonder about B. McLean role: loved her book on Enron but I wonder if she is too close to some of the hedgies." Try the "Deep Capture" web site for some of the background information. As far as Ms McLean is concerned I believe she lost all credibility in this matter.

At some point wouldn't this make a great subject for Fifth Estate, W5, 60 Minutes, Dateline, etc unless it becomes too complicated for them, but it has a great story line with all the intrigue of any novel. In fact there is more in this than in a lot of movies like Wall Street, etc. So for a movie, anyone want to suggest who we would cast as Prem, etc? I think that there are so many villains here we could employ half the bad guys in Hollywood. And I think we could even find a place for Charlie Sheen.

Like many here I have been following this since day one. Some of the events that have come to light surrounding this case are so unbelievable, so over the top, that if these events were contained in a work of fiction it would have been regarded as completely unrealistic. Seems there is just one preposterous thing after another. Who were these people? How could people in responsible positions get away with so much for so long? This is going to make a very interesting book some day. From manipulation of the markets to the cloak and dagger stuff and the outrageous, unfounded claims made against Prem and Fairfax it is difficult to believe that it has taken so long for the truth to come out. Stay tuned.

As for favourite board members there are many, but everyone’s input is important. I personally find the value of this board really comes to the surface when there are disagreements that contrast the positives and negatives of the subject at hand. All too often I can develop a bit of tunnel vision on a subject or a company and it helps to have a wake up call now and again that reminds me that there are two sides of the subject. I also appreciate some of the witty remarks that appear now and again. (as above)

I don’t see why FBK management would want to sell the profitable side of an operation which has decent upside potential become more profitable through lower priced wood chips, increasing NBSK prices and power generation. Why sell that and keep the dubious business of producing RBK? Sure, I can see some potential for the US plants but why exchange a longshot for a relatively sure thing? Additionally and on the subject of the staff, sure the workers would stay in Quebec but is senior management prepared to pull up stakes and move to the US to run what’s left of the company? It just doesn’t seem to add up imho. Personally, I don’t think management has any intention of selling the company. If an approach comes from outside or they receive pressure from shareholders than that is a different situation but until something like that occurs it is what it is.

Clearly the general consensus of this board that FBK should be sold and new management should take over. However, this is a decision that presently lies in the hands of present management and it is very unlikely that they have any interest in essentially firing themselves. Therefore the impetus for a sale would likely have to come from shareholders. So how does that happen? Probably Fairfax could initiate that if they wanted, but is there enough advantage to FFH for them to do this at this point? So who, other than FFH, are the major shareholders? FFH holds something like 26% so there is another 74% of the shares out there. Members of this board probably hold a a good number of shares, but likely insignificant in the overall scheme of things. However we are shareholders and there are likely other shareholders out there who also think that the status quo is not ideal. So what, if anything, can we as shareholders do to try and prcipitate a sale of FBK or parts of FBK? Of course the other scenario is that another company may initiate a purchase, but the leading contender for that would be Abitibi and that brings us back to FFH again. It seems that FBK has the basis of a good operation and a lot of potential, but in this business it lacks the advantages and the economies of scale that a merger or acquisition could bring. I am just thinking out loud here but timing is important. We have high expectations every quarter but there always seems that something comes out of left field to adversely effect profits. Hopefully, in the next quarter the stars will have aligned and we will see a good report with no “one time only” problems. When that occurs it would be the ideal time to put this company on the market. But if something doesn’t happen in the next few quarters an opportunity may well be lost.

You know, given the two downgrades and the fact that the numbers don't look all that good on the surface, I can't say that I'm terribly disappointed that the stock right now is only down a dime. Yes it certainly would have been nice to see a big jump but $1.45 would have looked pretty good a couple of months ago. I think we just have to be patient. I don't know if any of you guys have a combination of FBK, FFH, and HF but it certainly is a test of my patience. I am looking longer term but there are days.... Has anyone figured out why anyone would release a downgrade just hours before the results? I assume it would be illegal for them to have access to the results prior to release so why would they choose that timing that would raise the question in some people's mind? I just can't get my mind around that.

"I am more concerned as they have been right before." Agreed. I can't really believe that they would be dumb enough to downgrade them just hours before the release if they didn't know something. But on the other hand isn't it a little odd to downgrade them at the same time as they raise the target price?

Darn good question Watcher. Since they could not have prior access to the results perhaps they have a crystal ball. This doesn't even look good. I mean, if you weren't absolutely sure of the results why would you take the chance of looking like idiots if the results were different? I mean what's the downside of waiting a few hours? I just don't understand the timing. There are a lot of knowledgable shareholders on this board who have done a lot of research on FBK and it makes one uncomfortable to think that Scotia and Dundee know so much more than the shareholders. On the other hand these guys have been off before.

Well, well, well. I am now starting to believe that FBK management are perhaps following this board. Seems their new website has been revamped and I received a news item today titled "Why invest in Fibrek?" Haven't had a chance to look at this yet but it seems that they may be doing something to promote the company at last. This is certainly a step in the right direction. Suppose the upcoming AGM precipitated this but at least they are doing something in the PR area. http://www.sfkpulp.com/en/investors/why-invest/

Thank you Sanjeev and also to all the other members of this board for their very valuable and intelligent insights into investing. In the four years or so that I have been following this board and its predecessor I have learned a lot. During those ugly days when we saw the bottom fall out of the market and bad news day after day, this board helped me keep things in perspective. While I don't pretend to have near the expertise that many board members do, I find that reading the posts tends to shape ones way of thinking and combining that with a little common sense certainly has made me a better investor. I check the board numerous times a day, every day and more than anything I value the different points of views that are shared here.

I hope these aren't dumb questions, but since no one else has mentioned this perhaps someone could enlighten me. NBSK prices are updated weekly on FOREX and Paper Age, and every move in price has an effect on the value of FBK as does the price of wood chips. But if something like 50% of FBK's output is involved with RBK it certainly would be nice to be able to access RBK prices. 1) Doesn't RBK price fluctuate as well? 2) If so, is there anywhere we can go to follow RBK pricing - and perhaps the prices of waste paper as well? 3) Even if prices aren't set weekly, how often does the price change? Has it changed recently? One would assume that there must be some correlation between RBK prices and other pulp products since it is a substitute. Is there some sort of ration uses between RBK price and say NBSK? Anytime I Google RBK, FBK's name comes up. Is that because they are the only ones producing RBK in any quantity? Thanks

Geez guys, ya know it seems that whenever someone does real well there always some people that tend to focus on any negatives they can find. Guess that’s just human nature, but how many of us were perfect when we were Crosby’s age? Give him a chance to mature a bit and see how he measures up. I would hate to be held accountable for everything I did in my early 20's. By the way there are reports of another 15 year old (Nathan MacKinnon) following in Crosbys footsteps coming out of Crosby's home town in Nova Scotia.

annual results.... LONGUEUIL, QC, Feb. 8 /CNW Telbec/ - Fibrek (Toronto:FBK.TO) will release its 2010 fourth quarter and annual results after market hours on Wednesday, February 23, 2011. President and Chief Executive Officer, Pierre Gabriel Côté, and Patsie Ducharme, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will host a conference call on Thursday, February 24, 2011 at 10:00 a.m. (Eastern Time) to discuss financial results. Members of the financial community will be able to access the conference call and ask questions. Media representatives may attend as listeners only. OPEN TO: Analysts, investors and all interested parties DATE: Thursday, February 24, 2011 TIME: 10:00 a.m. (Eastern Time) CALL: 416-644-3425 (FOR ALL TORONTO AND OVERSEAS PARTICIPANTS) 1-877-974-0445, access code 4404338# (FOR ALL OTHER NORTH AMERICAN CALLS) Please dial-in 15 minutes before the conference call begins. Participants not able to listen to the live call can access a replay of the archived call by calling 1-877-289-8525, access code 4404338#. The replay will be available from Thursday, February 24, 2011, 1 p.m. until Thursday, March 3rd, 2011, 11:59 p.m.

RBC used to provide Level 2 live quotes but now you have to be a frequent trader to access them. It is certainly a disadvantage not to have the Level 2 info. Pulp price did not move today.

'Jolting' drop in sales means paper industry 'must adapt' Says Andre Bernier, chairman of the Pulp and Paper Technical Association of Canada (Former CEO of SFK/FBK) now a productivity expert with Catalyst Paper Corp. in Vancouver. http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Jolting+drop+sales+means+paper+industry+must+adapt/4208545/story.html No doubt what he says is true regarding newsprint but it seems that in business and in home use computers have a tendency to produce prodigious quantities of paper. Also, does he factor in the increasing demand for paper in developing countries?