cwericb

I sent them an e-mail yesterday telling them what I thought of their website and the impression it gives investors. I will not hold my breath waiting for a response. Some may not see the importance of a functional, informative and attractive website but today "image" is important. It concerns me that FBK management don't seem to realize this and don't show an ability to keep up with the times. Admittedly this is a small thing but it does not give a good feeling about the way management regards technology. What gets me is that they had a half decent site for SFK and really all they needed to do was make minor changes to their old site. Anybody interested in giving them a call and complaining?

Funny that you should mention the law suit as I had been contemplating posting a question asking if anyone had any news. I must be at least a year since I have heard any news at all. Does anyone know of any recent developments or where it stands now?

Uccmal I agree 100% with what you say. Why buy back shares when that may have a relatively small impact on share price whereas a dividend seems to have a more immediate effect on share prices - and it is the perception that the company is healthy enough to pay out dividends that counts. Further, the lack of a working web site in this day and age gives the perception that this company is a Mickey Mouse outfit. If these guys market their products the way they market their company, then they need help. It is almost like they are complacent with their positions in the company and don't want to do anything to draw attention to FBK in case that might change their personal stakes in the company. On the subject of share price, I see posts now and again where the posters say they don’t care what the share price is, but it is value of the company they are interested in. That may be fine in theory or for a fund manager with an infinite time frame, but it is a very idealistic viewpoint. Who knows when an individual one may want to or may have to sell his shares?

I don't know the specifics, but I have seen the words "crooks", "thieves", etc used frequently. (However in some cases the words were probably deserved.) But it is a good reminder to be a little careful as to how one phrases his comments. There is a right way and a wrong way to call a crook a crook.

I have always been surprised at some of the outrageous statements posted on the Stockhouse board. Now, in no way am I comparing this board to Shockhouse, but most of us are tempted to vent at times so I thought that the following would make interesting reading. St. Elias Mines Ltd. to Sue for Defamation Vancouver, B.C. September 20, 2010 St. Elias Mines Ltd. () ("St. Elias" or the "Company") announces that the Company, its President, Lori McClenahan, and management of St. Elias are suing certain anonymous online bulletin board posters for defamation. The anonymous posters placed a series of defamatory comments on a Stockhouse bullboard against the Company, its President and management and, as of today, are continuing to post false and defamatory comments. Further details regarding the defamation lawsuits will follow once filings are made with the Supreme Court of British Columbia. "The Company has grounds to file defamation lawsuits with the courts against the posters to seek general and aggravated damages as well as punitive damages. There is a need to deter irresponsible, self-interested, malicious postings and the courts have, in the past looked down upon libellous material found in online postings" stated President, Lori McClenahan. "Statements transmitted and published over Stockhouse's website about particular companies are accessible by millions of individuals, shareholders and potential investors, and the extent of the damage could be considerable", the President continued. Prior Lawsuits Against Internet Posters Stockhouse posters have faced legal action over forum postings many times in the past. One well-known case is the lawsuit where Barrick Gold Corp. was awarded $125,000 by the Ontario Superior Court of Justice after the company was libelled on internet chat lines. In a more recent case, a handful of inflammatory online postings about Farallon Mining Ltd. ("Farallon") have led to the biggest internet defamation award ever handed out in Canada. The Supreme Court of British Columbia awarded $425,000 in damages for defamatory comments made by an a online poster. On March 30, 2010, an online poster had to pay a total of $425,000 in damages for comments he made at Stockhouse's website. The targets of the posters online ire were Farallon, Farallon's Chairman and Farallon's management company. Madam Justice C.A. Wedge awarded Farallon and Farallon's management company $75,000 each in general damages and $25,000 each in punitive damages. Farallon's Chairman was awarded $125,000 in general damages, $75,000 in aggravated damages and $25,000 in punitive damages. In addition to being the biggest internet defamation award in Canadian history, it is the largest defamation award rendered against a single person in Canada.

I just got caught up on this board a few minutes ago and would like to add my two cents worth. There is a fine line between discussion and argument. If we were all in agreement with everything said on this board and we simply patted each other on the back, the board would be a waste of time. A good example of the value of this board is the FBK thread. Usually SD takes an optimistic view of the company, while Cardboard leans more towards the pessimistic side. Just when I get a little over enthusiastic about the company’s future, Cardboard brings me back to reality. They are respectful of one another, but often see things differently leaving the reader to use his own judgement as to how to view each posters views and make a more informed decision about investing in the company. That is the true value of this unique board. It is an exchange of ideas and thoughts -positive and negative. Let’s have lots of disagreement, but let’s try and keep the egos and rhetoric down to the point where no one gets insulted. I think that it might have been a knee jerk reaction on rick_v’s part to depart the board and he probably would have reconsidered after he cooled off and realized that even he is not 100% right 100% of the time. But it was also perhaps a little harsh of ‘The Boss’ to kick him out. But that is his prerogative. Without Sanjeev this very unique board wouldn’t exist and someone has to keep the kooks out - and I am not referring to rick_v by that remark. But when a decision is taken to bar an active member from the board maybe we should take a poll? Comments?

Yeah, but what about that guy using Parsad's name? Just kidding.

Agreed. I wonder if Mr. Cote has been reading our board? But the employee rights offering has to be a good incentive to get the stock price up and the $1.35 should be a reasonable target.

"Finally, a insider buy. Good sign." Other than a relatively small purchase by Cote, are these not just the rights offered to staff @1.35 as an incentive rather than any actual purchases?

Seems like the local weather forecast. If you don't like it change the channel until you get a forecast you like! I seem to recall statistics that the forecasts were right 55% of the time. Flip a coin and you would be right 50%, so how much does that extra 5% cost?

Back in mid-July, on another board, there was mention of possible labour problems at the Saint-Félicien Mill. However, no one here seemed to think that this information was material. However, in the quarterly report they note ... ``The Saint-Félicien Mill’s collective agreement with production and maintenance employees expired on April 30, 2009.`` ... ``No negotiations between Fibrek and its union have yet begun in respect of local issues. There can be no assurance that Fibrek will be able to successfully renegotiate the collective agreements or renegotiate them on terms satisfactory to Fibrek.`` Now the supposed word from inside the plant last month was that the workers were talking strike, and with the union contract having expired well over a year ago, does no one here see this as a serious concern?

Just to set the record straight, the increased likelihood of a bad hurricane season on the East Coast is not exactly news and those of us who live here have been advised of this as far back as last Spring. So there is nothing at all new about this information and it has pretty well been general knowledge for many months. Of course we were supposed to get some hurricanes last year and didn't so, I guess it is like most other weather forecasts - flip a coin. However, hurricane development is stimulated by warm water and here in Atlantic Canada are experiencing considerably warmer waters than normal this year so that tends to confirm the forecasts of more hurricanes and of more severe hurricanes.

“Third, I and many on this board am pretty agnostic when it comes to profits. We count cash and want there to be more next year then the current one.” Look, any way you cut it we are all looking for profits in one form or another. Profits generated year over year increase book value. I would not be particularly intersted in investing in any company that was not interested in profits. Perhaps I took this out of context? “...Mister Market cares about underwriting. Insurance Analysts view investment gains as one time deals...” Unfortunately that is true but one would think that there would come a point where Mr. Market would eventually clue in to the fact that HWIC has built a track record that deserves to be factored into the value of this company. And yes, a serious downturn could adversely effect those investment gains but the same climate would also tend to depress underwriting profits. Those Insurance Analysts might also remember that we had a pretty nasty bump in the economy a year or so ago and FFH didn’t fare too badly - to put it mildly. Perhaps some of those guys should start to “think outside the box”.

I understand that many assess FFH on their underwriting abilities, rather than their investment prowess. But here is where this logic escapes me. In the long run, what difference does lower underwriting profitability make if it is more than offset by the profit produced by their investing side of the business? Isn’t the objective to have a profitable company, who cares which part of the company that profit comes from? Would you give a higher value to a company that didn`t show the profits that FFH has, just because it had better underwriting numbers and yet its overall profit wasn`t as good? What ever happened to `the bottom line`. I am involved in retail. At times we have loss leaders to stimulate sales in other areas. If you look at it in this way, perhaps FFH would be even better off if they lost more on the underwriting side if that in turn generated more customer’s premiums which FFH could use to produce even more profits from investments . I’m not recommending this, just using the analogy.

Speicher suggests that Fairfax fair value should be in the range of $574/ share. http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=101996

It has been quite a while, but "thefrenchguy" has posted again on Stockhouse. We have quoted him in the past and since I believe his father works at the St-Félicien mill he may have some insight not generaly available. He says......... "I do agree with your evaluation of 1.50 $, but there is still concern to be fixed: They have to come with an agreement with workers at St-Félicien mill, they are without contrat for 1 year now. They meet the union the July 22. Apparently, workers are ready to strike. Also, they have to find a new way to buy wood chips and leave Abitibi-bowater (too expensive once supply agreement will be over) I also heard that even if the price of NBSK is 1020 $/ton, they are not selling at this price. They offer 100 $ rebate per ton to best customer.Also, transportation is expensive. I heard the net profit is just 120 $/ton these days. For sure, the share price, rights price and this offering is very dissapointing, I will not exersice my rights Tomorrow... I put everything on Bombardier with the Farnboro show next week and Cseries orders to come...

Yes FFHWatcher, that's exactly the same conclusion I came to. It really comes down to - do I want more FBK? Saving two cents a share really doesn't come into it. However, contrary to some past experiences, I do think that the price has been depressed by the offering so I felt that this was as good a time to pick up some more. I think....

Also exercised most of my rights today, however I hold some FBK in my TFSA and since it is maxed out I would have to transfer those rights out which would take several days and since tomorrow is the last day, I guess I'll let them go. I probably have enough in FBK already. As Uccmal says - here goes nothing! I really feel that the rights offering has artifically lowered the price on FBK and after a couple of weeks I would hope to see at least some increase in share price. The biggest problem that I see is in what goes on with the markets and economy on a global scale. My optomistic side says that we are on the tail end of a correction and hopefully it should level out soon and reverse itself by mid September. Then again, I have been wrong before.

I have two kids who have bounced around in various jobs in a region with a high unemployment rate. They have both faced some tough times now and then, but I don't think either of them has ever been unemployed for more than a week in the past ten years. When they couldn’t find work near home they packed their bags and moved to where the work is. During the pull-back last year one of them was cut from a $100k a year job. Within 3 days he was working elsewhere for $60k. But for someone like this Scott guy, fresh out of collage, to pass up a $40k job and to sit around his parents home waiting for the “perfect” job seems to me like the kind guy that no one would hire. Its not the lack of jobs, it’s the lack of work ethic and the unrealistic sense of entitlement that is the problem. Opihiman: The job(s) he turned down were hardly criminal. One was an insurance adjuster’s position, the other as an officer in the Marine Corp. However one thing is for sure, with his attitude he wouldn’t last long with the Marines. Perhaps you should read before you make comments. Oh and by the way, if I was Scott and my Dad had taken out an insurance policy on my life, I think I would get real serious about moving out and finding a job real quick before Dad started getting ideas about collecting on that policy!

The question of the 20% discount on the rights offering has been debated on the board for several weeks now and I must be missing something. It seems obvious to me that the discount must apply to all shareholders simply because if there was not a discount involved (or some other substantial advantage), why would any shareholder want to purchase under the rights offering? We are being offered the opportunity to buy one right (or share) for every (3?) that we own. There has to be some enticement for shareholders to buy more shares. The way I see it is this. I assume that FBK wants to raise cash to pay off debt. They could either issue more shares on the general market OR give their shareholders (including FFH) an opportunity to increase their holdings at a discount to the market price. As far as dilution is concerned, if they use the proceeds of the rights offering to retire debt already owing, is that really dilution? That is, if they sell $40 million in new shares and reduce debt by $40 million, is not the company then worth $40 million more? Clever idea asking the shareholders to chip in and pay out company debt with the reward of decreasing debt and interest expense in the hopes of increasing share value for all. As I said at the start, am I missing something?

The whole idea of reducing business in a soft market seems a little short sighted to me. All industries have their ups and downs, but one thing we all share in common is that customers are much easier to turn away than they are to recapture when markets turn hard. One soon realizes the value of retaining customers when you look at the cost in advertising dollars it takes to bring in each new customer. Before you start reducing your customer base, you better be darn sure you are not going to need them somewhere down the road.

Thanks IV, that's what I thought was probably going on. Guess if I had a few hundred thousand shares that I had picked if for 20-30 cents, I might want to take the 'bird in the hand' too. Been a lot of shares change hands in the last week.

Couple of points. 1) From SFK's press release: "It is anticipated that the reorganized structure of the Fund as a corporation will attract new investors, including non-resident investors, and provide, in the aggregate, a more active, attractive and liquid market for the common shares of the new corporation .." Are some reading this as a hint that there is a take over in the winds? I read this as simply stating what it says. Converting to a corporation will make their shares more attractive on the open market and bring in new shareholders such as funds and non-resident investors who were previously not interested in units of an income trust. This in turn should increase demand and liquidity and have a positive effect on share prices. 2) Regarding the postings from the "Frenchguy" on Stockhouse. Let's not forget that he has stated that he is a student who's father works in the St Felicien plant. While rumours are sometimes true, they are often just speculation. Some of his posts are indeed helpful like the news about the recent short shutdown - they really do seem very enthusiastic and reminiscent of some "pump & dump" efforts I have seen in the past. 3) I am a little surprised that CFX's 1st Q results and the run up yesterday seemed to have no impact on SFK. Anybody have any explanation for this? There seemed to be a lot of sellers whenever the price got much above $1.90. 4) I would also like to express my thanks and respect to SD for his ever insightful, informative and interesting comments and analysis.

Wondering if someone on the board could give me some insight into how the CDN$/U$ impacts the value of FFH? From a Canadian point of view I would think that as our dollar increases, this would tend to devalue the company (in CDN$ terms) considering the amount of US holdings and operations FFH has - and the fact that it states it's figures in U$. But with FFH becoming more global all the time, I don't have any idea how significant the effect of our rising dollar has on the overall value of the company. Seeing the share price drop these days is no surprise as it seems to be an annual ritual this time of year, but is some of that as a result of the loonies increase?

The Stockhouse posting was made in the evening of April 7th and I saw it the following morning.. That day I was wondering if the posting might have any impact on share price but on April 8th the stock actually dropped several cents to close at $1.26 so obviously there was no effect. However, when the same message was re-posted here yesterday, the stock priced jumped by over a dime, in fact up about 15 cents at one time. Coincidence? The same person made another SFK posting yesterday and for everyone's interest here are the last three postings from Stockhouse ---------------------------------------------------------------- huge profit coming thefrenchguy 4/7/2010 10:27:10 PM | | 99 reads | Post #28112661 Hi SFK fellows !!!! This stock is underevaluated. Let me give you the numbers for Q1. Thrust me, I have worked at the St-félicien mill for 2 years as a student and my father worked there for more than 30 years now (since the opening in 1978). I have discussed with him during Easter holiday at St-Félicien. Note: those numbers and facts are only for the St-Félicien Mill - Average Production was 1000 tons/day for almost everyday during the Q1 (lets say 28 days x 3 months) = 85 days x 1000 tons = 85 000 tons. - Average sell price was around 900 $/ton (will easily reach 1000 $/ton this year according to him) - Production Cost around 600 $/ton = 300$ profit per ton x 85 000 tons = 25 500 000 $ profit for Q1. This is without the inventory. Inventory was 70 000 tons last year during summer and are now less than 10 000 tons. Storage places are almost empty, everything is sold. I suspect that they will had some profits from those sells in Q1 results. The regular spring shutdown will be shortened to only 4 days to minimize the impact on production. The demand is too crazy. Workers overther expect the share price to reach 4 $-5$ by the end of the year. With the new compagny to be created (Fibrek Inc.) management will obviously try to make the SP reach this level to offer some more shares on the market and raise money. The ultimate goal here is to by some sawmill and be self-sufficient in wood chips. Right now, they buy wood chips to Abitibi-Bowater at high prices. Good luck -------------------------------------------------------- RE: huge profit coming oddykog 4/13/2010 2:43:51 PM | | 51 reads | Post #28131479 I agree with you on mot of what you wrote. Possibly the target for the shares is a bit high, but I will settle for $3-4/share. I think the recycled pulp mills in the US should also be doing well with their end product. What I don't know and will wait to find out is whether they are able to get enough recycled paper to keep those mills humming. Basically in the pulp industry at present you can sell all you can make. ------------------------------------------------- RE: RE: huge profit coming thefrenchguy 4/13/2010 9:35:07 PM | | 28 reads | Post #28132891 you're too, the US mill are doing great, in fact, I asked my father: Are those new mills profitable ?? He answered: Apparently that without them, year end results would have been worst than what they are. those USA mills saved SFK pulp. They only black cloud for SFK is the contract with the union that is due for more than 1 year now. But my father said that at LaTuque and at couple of other mills in Québec, they have obtained easy agrement with the union. SFK will probably base their offers on what has passed over there and hope for a positive respond. They cannot close St-Félicien mill (for a strike) with prices close to 1000 $/ton. I accumulated big time since 2 week Good luck --------------------------------------------------