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cwericb

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Everything posted by cwericb

  1. "Is that how Buffett or Watsa would think about an investment?" I'm no expert on either one but I know very few, if any, buisnessmen who at one time or another didn't make some high risk investments and I doubt Watsa and Buffett are exceptions.
  2. "it seems to me this is not a 50:50 bet" No, it is not. The downside is the loss of $4 a share. The upside may well be $10-20 per share or more. As far as working out the numbers on TRE is concerned, I don't know how anyone can do that with any certainty when the numbers themselves are being questioned. As I said before, this is more of a gamble than an investment. Many people buy lottery tickets. I like the odds better here. I hope no one bets the grocery money on this, but I think my chances are just as good or better here than dropping a few dollars at the local casino. Time will tell, but if this drops back a little more tomorrow I might find some more loose change. Just because there are some very good investors on this site doesn't mean that some can't take the odd gamble now and again. Anyone who invests in the market is a gambeler to a certain extent, it is just a matter of degree. I know of no stock that is 100% assured to increase in value. Sometimes there is nothing wrong with taking the ocassional longshot.
  3. SFValue. "permanent" is a bit strong, but just the accusations and doubt would tarnish their reputation for quite some time to come.
  4. Question. Given that there has been a huge number of shares traded over the past few days, would anyone care to speculate as to who has been buying?
  5. At this point TRE is pretty much a gamble. It is quite entertaining as it can bounce up or down 10-20% in minutes. I like the odds here and have been picking up a little as it drops below $4.00. Maybe it's a poor investment and perhaps a lot of people wouldn't touch it today - but you know, there was a buyer for every one of those 27,000,000 shares that changed hands today - so I think that there are more people than ValueBuff and I that are buying.
  6. cwericb

    New FBK

    From the May 19 CP story: "Chief executive Pierre Gabriel Cote said his company is also interested in making tissue paper but wouldn't say if Fibrek is interested in buying five plants that Cascades (TSX:CAS) has just put up for sale." If he was not giving some thought to this wouldn't he have just said "no"?
  7. cwericb

    New FBK

    FIBREK AND THE SAINT-FÉLICIEN MILL EMPLOYEE UNION SIGN NEW COLLECTIVE AGREEMENT LONGUEUIL,QC, May 25, 2011 /CNW Telbec/ - Mr. Pierre Gabriel Côté, President and CEO of Fibrek, is pleased to announce that the members of the Communications, Energy and Paperworkers Union of Canada (CEP, local 24-Q) have voted in favour of a new collective bargaining agreement based on the agreement in principle concluded last April 29. The new labour conditions are retroactive to May 1, 2009 and will be effective until April 30, 2014. "This agreement is the result of a long process. The negotiations unfolded in a climate of respect, cooperation and transparency that reflects our corporate values. I applaud the openness and pragmatism shown by the union representatives throughout the negotiations. Together, we concluded an agreement that meets both parties' needs", said Mr. Côté. The agreement contains several measures to improve the mill's productivity. The parties will work closely to implement the agreed-upon terms and conditions, in particular to achieve greater flexibility in the maintenance department, to reorganize the workforce and to improve employee training and development. "After successfully completing this process, I believe that Fibrek is now stronger and better positionned to face its challenges. I thank and congratulate both negotiating teams for their hard work and constructive discussions leading to this agreement. It takes into account the particular context of our industry and sets the foundations to continue building a successful, competitive and sustainable organization", concluded Mr. Côté.
  8. I don't know if everyone gets the same ads running at the bottom of these pages, but it is more than a little ironic that an Amex ad has been running at the bottom of my page on this thread telling people that they can accumulate Aeroplan points if they apply for an Amex card.
  9. "There are 100 different ways to work the system" At one time Visa sent me out 5 "Visa Cheques" that worked similar to cash advances. However as opposed to cash advances, they allowed one Aeroplan (Air Canada) point for each dollar amount of the cheques. I had just sold a property and was in the process of transferring $35,000. However, I first wrote out 5 - $7,000 cheques to my wife and collected 35,000 points. To put this in perspective 25,000 points will get a return ticket anywhere in North America. And that was not the first time I had done that with similar cheque offers, I haven't received any of those offers since.
  10. "I would bet a decent chunk of people would end up paying high rates. " It's like the "6 months interest free" or "12 month interest free" gimmicks you see promoted by retailers. If you are a day late or a dollar short, you pay the full interest calculated from the day you purchased the goods, usually at 29%. So the poor slob who can't quite come up with his total payment on the final day now owes 15 or 30% more than he did the day before. "Credit card companies business model does not work on the subset of people who are very knowledgeable in finance and are disciplined like you." I use Aerogold Visa and acquire Aeroplan points with it and put almost everything through it. All regular purchases, my heating bill, car and house insurance, vehicle registrations and sales taxes on vehicles, etc, etc. I get all my bills on one statement and the card gets paid in full at the end of every month. I have flown with family from the East Coast to California, Arizona, Hawaii and multiple times over the years on the accumulated points. Most recently business/first class to Hawaii. However Aeroplan recently announced that they are raising the points requirements by as much as 30% so I am in the process of re-thinking this card.
  11. Like Liberty, I find that the site normally loads quickly, but a few days ago I found that there were several times when this site loaded very slowly or not at all. All other sites loaded normally except this one so I don't think this was a local problem. But compared to what things were like a few years ago the site runs much better. On a similar subject, about a year or so ago there were a lot of negative remarks made about a certain Mr. B and his business ethics, or lack thereof. Coincidently this site went down for a day or so at the same time. I also acquired a very bad virus that I am 99.9% sure came from this site at that exact same time as the site was experiencing difficulties. Now to be clear, I don't blame anyone here for that, but I have often wondered if the reason why the site crashed was ever determined? I mean, it didn't just crash for no reason and the timing was rather coincidental.
  12. Bookie you are quite correct in that 29%+ Another thing that differs from most retail credit is that if you charged $2500 this month and pay only $2000 before the due date, than you will be charged interest on the $500 remaining. But with a credit card you may pay interest on all the charges that make up the full $2500 from the day you charged them until the end of the month of the charges. (unless policies have changed in the past few years) I also find it surprising that a lot of people do not realize that most retailers are charged approximately 2-5% of every charge processed by a bank charge card. However, the real cost to the retailer is actually higher because the charge includes 15% or sales tax. The retailer must submit 100% of the sales tax to government even though they only receive 95-98% of that money from the bank. One place where this all gets very substantial is in the building supply industry where people run up six figure accounts and then demand to pay with their credit card. One swipe of the card can cost the retailer several thousand dollars.
  13. Is it just me or do these natural disasters seem to be strengthening? Earthquakes - how often do you hear of quakes in the 9 range? Tornados a mile wide and staying on the ground for 10 minutes - in a city? I do know that here on the East coast we are definitely seeing a change it the extremes of our weather, especially wind speeds and the frequency of high winds. This year's hurricane season may be quite unpleasant. Of course, now that the end of the world has been postponed until October perhaps it's no big deal. In all seriousness though, I don't see how insurance rates cannot start to rise.
  14. Tim - You are probably right but the 62 years is quoted directly from my Visa statement. For the record I’ll be 129 when I hobble in to make that final payment. I think we all agree with the theory that we are all responsible for our own actions. But there are a lot of people who simply do not understand compound interest. While it is fine to say ‘Well that’s their problem”, the simple truth is that it isn’t. When Joe Blow gets into financial problems it effects a lot of people and the end result is that we pay for his losses either through higher prices or interest rates. Printing payout times and interest totals would definitely be a wake up call for a lot of people. Sure people still smoke dispite the warnings, but only a fraction as many people smoke today as when those anti-smoking programs started. Same applies to junk food, people are much more aware today. We just need more disclosure in the credit card industry. As far as the banks or credit card companies making money, I have no problem at all with that which is why I own shares in them. And by the way..... ubuy2wron : 1 Capital One : 0
  15. "If you believe that they take advantage of people who don't have knowledge or skills, and the implication is that they do this on purpose, then there isn't a lot to discuss." The point is that these companies have not provided the information that consumers need to make sound financial decisions thereby contributing to some consumers getting in over their heads in debt. When that becomes as widespread as it is today then it begins to effect our economy. If you were aware that it would take 62 years to pay off $6,300 @ $132/mo than I would suggest that you would be among the minority. The problem I have is that this information was not provided until forced by legislation. There are a lot of people out there who think they are paying down debt by making minimum payments when, in fact, the pay down is infinitesimal. I agree with your other examples, however we are not talking about quite the same thing. Eg, I am not for a moment suggesting that fast foods, bubble gum or bank cards be outlawed. Perhaps it is common knowledge that bubble gum will rot your teeth intricacies of credit card interest charges are not so simple. And yes, I am suggesting that banks intentionally withhold information that consumers can use make informed decisions because it is in their own interests, ie, the above example. I have come across many people who have been under the impression that "minimum payments" for bank cards are like a mortgage payment or car loan payments that have fixed amortization periods. They are not and there are people who do not understand this.
  16. "No offense, but why are the credit card companies loan shark companies?" Perhaps because they take advantage of people who do not have the knowledge or skills to know what they are getting into? Perhaps because they had to be legislated to inform people that the minimum payments were unrealistic? Do you think that it is ethical to tell customers that it is okay to make a minimum payment that would take 60 or 70 years to pay off? Until recently they did not inform their customers of this fact. And this is just for starters. Several years ago one of my sons did not pay his Bank Card bill of $500. It was eventually placed for collection. After about three years I paid it off for him. Within two months they issued him with a new card with a $5,000 limit. I could go on. "That's right. But 20% is damn high!" There are others that are higher.
  17. I received my Visa Infinite statement today. This month I owe $6,295.96 and I always pay the full balance. My minimum payment is $132.00 per month. In the fine print (recently legislated in Canada) it says: "If you only make the minimum payment every month it will take approximately 62 years to pay the entire balance shown on this statement" That is: $132 x 12 months x 62 years = $98,208.00 to pay the $6,295 balance. BUT $132 x 48 months = $6,336 So it takes less than 4 years to pay the debt AND 58 years to pay the INTEREST. And this is at a rate of 20%. Now here is the scarey part. I have worked in various areas of the credit industry for over forty years and many times I have had couples sit in front of me and proudly announce that they are making all their minimum payments and still have some money left over to take on some new debt. This is just an example of why I have always felt that a short course on credit should be mandatory before anyone graduates from junior high school. Of course, on the plus side of all this, I do appreciate the fact that Visa has so much faith in my longevity.
  18. bookie71 Further to "Them that can, do, those who can't, teach" Them that can't teach, administrate, Then that can't teach or administrate, go in to politics. I sometimes think there is more than a little truth in that.
  19. “The only thing that annoys me is that they will likely get sold/do some asset sales the day after I sell.” - Cardboard My sentiments exactly. This started out to be something that I had high expectations for in the short term. I still think that there is a good opportunity here, but instead of months it may be years before we see this company start to reach its potential. The painful part of this is the money that I have tied up in the meantime. But I hate to get out because there is always the possibility of something major happening right after I sell. But managements options and the fact that they also have shares in the company does align their interests with ours as shareholders and there is also the fact that Fairfax is still substantially involved. So, like Cardboard, I just really hate to get out at this point, now if perhaps if Cardboard could be convinced to sell ... Down around 8-10%. Markets don’t seem to know what to do here as the price has really been bouncing around from $1.42 to $1.58 Same thing every time earnings are released. You can`t keep disappointing shareholders after every quarter, if you want to build your share price. If they ever could get contracts for RBK plants to operate fully on a cost plus basis and then sell them off, things would be very different. Perhaps that’s their long range plan?
  20. Some of our members need to keep a couple of things in mind. 1) This board is moderated in Canada. 2) I believe Canadian libel laws differ somewhat from those in the U.S. 3) You may call a crook a crook. However that crook can haul you into court and make you prove that he is actually a crook and this can be very difficult and very expensive. If that crook is far wealthier than you he can cost you an enormous amount before (if you are very, very lucky) you get a judgement in your favour. Then he can apeal it until the cows come home. Just look at some of the far fetched things SAC is throwing at Fairfax to delay and drag things out. Now, no one wants to see anyone on this board get into that kind of trouble. But we all have to keep in mind that it could be Sanjeev who could end up having to protect himself from a libel suit for something that I wrote because he missed it and allowed it to be posted on the board. This is of no little concern as several Stockhouse board members have been sued, so that should serve as a warning to us all. And I don't for a minute exempt myself from this as I have written more than my share of venomous letters in my time, however there are ways of telling someone to go to hell in such a way as he cannot wait to get there. So the bottom line here is that if you want to call a guy a crook, just be careful to do it in a nice ambiguous way so that no one gets in trouble.
  21. Couple of diverse comments that might fit here 1) I see that Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of Canada is being mentioned as a possible replacement for SK. 2) Yesterday I saw where an individual on a Stockhouse thread that I was following was apparently forced to write a retraction for comments he made. In the past others have been sued for comments made on that board. I only mention this because sometimes we have to remember to be a little careful what we write here or elsewhere because there can be ramifications if we get to little carried away. This is especially true when we comment on matters that are before the courts such as this or the Fairfax lawsuit. However, Sanjeev keeps close tabs on things but he can't read everything all the time. I am not referring to any particular posts or individuals, but I have seen comments that run pretty close to the line. So I just wanted to remind everyone that there are some vultures out there who would like to take a shot at people who made negative comments about them.
  22. "maybe she had evidence of the racqueteering i.e maybe she knew something that she wanted to give to Fairfax to hurt her spouse." If she had such evidence, then it would seem that she had every right to present it to Fairfax or in fact, to the appropriate authorities if she wished. Furthermore, if she had evidence of Cohen's wrongoing, then you would think that Cohen's lawyers would want to supress that evidence, not expose it.
  23. IF this was true, so what? What relevance would such a meeting have to the Fairfax suit? And furthermore, that supposed meeting occurred long after the events that are the basis of Fairfax suit took place and would be irrelevant, which is probably why this was thrown out. SAC & Cohen's lawyers are doing everything they can to delay the Fairfax suit and this is just part of that sideshow. No doubt it was no surprise to them that this was thrown out, but now they get to waste more time and money by appealing this decision. It will be a long, long time before we see a resolution to Fairfax's suit, but the fact that SAC are using tactics like this clearly indicate that they know what the end result will be. If they had any hope of winning it would be in their best interests to have this resolved quickly, so their only defense is to delay, delay and delay. Even when a decision is reached it will be appealed.
  24. "BRK B vs BRK A must be the greatest long/short position in the history of mankind" Come on now, you don't want to really confuse this guy.
  25. Just blows my mind to read that quote. Guess this guy wouldn't be buying FFH any time soon with a share price around $400, be way too expensive. Do you suppose he woke up this morning and said "What was I thinking?"
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