cwericb

Generally agree. Just wish Carney was running for the for the Conservatives. Poilivere is a bit of a wild card and I wish he would announce some real policies other than "Axe the tax" which is getting a bit old. But barring some unforeseen catastrophe he will be Canada's next PM.

...and that justifies the President of the United States publicly threatening Canada with annexation? Threatening to punish Canada with tariffs? Threatening to force us into submission through an economic war? And this, after the many things we have done for the US over the years? At best he is threatening our independence and at the very least he is publicly insulting and embarrassing Canada in front of the whole world. Who the f*ck does he think he is to threaten us like that? And the border? Why does the United States think that it is Canada's (and Mexico's) responsibility to protect the American border? Isn't YOUR border YOUR responsibility? Sheesh! Now, I suppose a lot in the US think this is all a big joke, but I can assure you that there are a LOT of Canadians who do not see this that way at all. Right now, people here are very concerned, but if this crap keeps up there are going to be a lot of very pissed off Canadians. I live in an area that many Americans own summer homes, spend their summers enjoying our laid back way of life, our cooler weather and our many beaches and warm waters. Right now a lot of Canadians are very concerned and beginning to get pissed off at what we see as our neighbour stabbing us in the back. Bottom line here is, why does your new administration want to pick a fight with their closest ally? For those in the US who think "Oh that's just Trump...". A lot of Canadians don't see it that way. Some might remember that during Covid Mr. Trump tried to push Canada around and quickly backed down when he soon found that it wasn't that easy.

The current government in Canada and its predecessors have essentially ignored our military and it is pathetic for a country with such a proud military history. But history is like a pendulum. Swings left then right, and repeat. About time to swing right.

Yeah Cubs, but that Idiot is soon to be gone. Anyone who thought that some smooth talking, entitled, left wing, part time drama teacher was qualified to run a country got what they deserved. I am all for immigration. But really, I mean really, who thinks that in a country of less than 40 million, you can bring in one million people a year without requiring that a certain percentage be doctors, nurses, skilled workers, etc, etc, simply isn't playing with a full deck. I mean really! And then to give away a billion $ or so every time he appears on TV... Now we have a well qualified candidate for PM. A guy who is an economist and banker and who served as governor of the Bank of Canada, then was hired away to head up the Bank of England and is now head of impact investing at Brookfield Asset Management. BUT, but he is running for the head of the party who gave us Trudeau. Ahh, what to do?

I really doubt Mr Trump, his cohorts and supporters have any idea of the potential Canada has to retaliate in regards to tariffs if we absolutely must. What happens if Canada decides to reduce our water supply to the US, perhaps dam up a few rivers? The US is rapidly running out of water and will soon be in desperate need of water. If the US expects Canada's help this is a funny way to ask for it. We have long memories. How about the amount of Canadian produced electricity coming from and running through several Canadian provinces that helps to power major US cities? Should Canada dim the lights in NYC and Boston for a bit just to get their attention? About $125,000,000,000 yearly Canadian oil goes to the US at a substantially DISCOUNTED price. $22 Billion in petroleum gas exported to the US each year, $27 billion Canadian car parts and vehicles goes to the US yearly as well as billions of dollars in minerals that we sell to the US that are not easily available elsewhere - and certainly not available right next door. Then there is the 4.5 billion a year just in fertilizers that would be very expensive to source elsewhere, etc, etc. The US depends on Canadian exports to the tune of well over One Billion dollars every single day. Why? Because these exports are easily, cheaply and dependably available. Certainly if the US wants to try to cut us off there are lots of other potential markets open to Canada, but our friends to the south might not want to see our exports going countries the US doesn't see as friendly to their interests. What about trade going from the US to Canada? Has Mr. Trump considered who the biggest customer for exports of US produced goods? Probably not the best plan to constantly insult your customers Donald, because Canada has lots of other potential suppliers. These are just a few quick thoughts, but no one up here in the Frozen North* wants any part of this crap, but you can only insult your neighbours so much, and one can already see attitudes hardening towards our good neighbours. Our friends to the South might want to give these things just a little thought. *Interesting fact: About 20 US states have portions of their land area that are equal to, or NORTH of the most southern parts of the Canadian border. Check it out on a map.

That's hilarious! Great minds think alike? Or as they also say "fools seldom differ"

And that advice holds very true when reading posts on this board. Being in business for many years taught me that it is just as, or more important to be able to assess the person who is trying to sell you something, as it is to assess whatever they are trying to sell you. There are certain posters to whom I pay very close attention to their every post and others, well, not so much. Knowing who's advice to follow is invaluable. Just because some posters on CoBF seem to have a comment for every single topic on every subject on CoBF, while entertaining, does not necessarily mean they are purveyors of good advice. From 2021 to 2023 my returns averaged about 25%. in 2024 my stock portfolio gained slightly over 50% despite having a lousy December. Personally I think I have done pretty well, but I am the first to admit that this has not come from any particular personal expertise in examining the details of individual companies. I am a rank amateur. It purely comes from assessing who really knows what they are talking about on the various topics on CoBF. Little hard to explain and hope this makes sense.

Haha. I must disagree. In reading this board (and its predecessors, there are certain posters who really know what they are talking about and ask the right questions. Back in 2006-7 when I was reading everything I could find about Fairfax you, Crip1, were one of the posters that I followed closely and who's posts convinced me to buy Fairfax in the first place. Thank you all!

First shares purchased in 2007 @ $217. Still have them.

Being listed in the US will NOT happen. Fairfax has been there, done that.

Not sure I understand this poll. It could be months before Fairfax is added as stated above. If so, would expect the price of FFH shares will be reasonably higher than they are today not lower, by the time the company is added to the TSX60. So are you suggesting that Fairfax shares will fall and continue to do so until sometime in the future when (if) it is added? Further I would think many of those who did purchase recently will probably hold onto their shares at least until the annual dividend next month.

Exactly.

Personal view. The share price goes up, goes down. Haven't ever sold a share because I am too dumb to try and time the market. If I sold when I thought the price was going to go down, I can assure you the price would jump. And, I would probably never get back in because I would still be waiting for the next price drop or get too ticked off to get back in because I had missed a big price jump. About a third or quarter of my shares were purchased at about $200. Looking back, there were a few frustrating periods with share price, but there were also a number of times when markets would tank and FFH would either stay stable or rise and defy market trends. FFH does help one sleep at night. I often wonder how successful those here who have traded in and out of Fairfax have been over the years. JMHO

"Even after Friday's spike, neither Fairfax nor Aecon look particularly expensive: " Fully agree with you LC. I also have a position in ATRL which I have had for a couple of years and it is atill doing pretty well and I also plan on holding onto it as well.

Well, days like Friday just don't come along often (if ever) and I have to admit that I am still somewhat in shock. I am just a little guy who doesn't profess to really know much stocks and essentially I just buy a few and rarely sell. My portfolio has just 19 stocks and Fairfax represents slightly over 50% of my holdings so a jump of 9% yesterday certainly made for a very good day. But my third largest holding after Fairfax and Royal Bank is Aecon Construction (ARE). Yesterday Aecon jumped 18.7%. Further contributing to a great day, were five of my other stocks that each gained in excess of 2% on a day when when the Toronto Stock Exchange was up less than half of one percent. So with a lot of good luck and much help from this board through the years, (Thank you all!!), I am up 46.25% so far in 2024. Fairfax is still looking pretty good and I have yet to sell a share since I made my initial purchase in 2007 at around $215. (Yes capital gains is going to kill me.) But what I don't understand is seeing board members share their portfolios here and notice some where Fairfax is not listed among their holdings. I mean not only does the name "Fairfax' appear in the very title of the board, but COBF must contain the most detailed and thorough examination of any company listed on the TSX. PS. In 2006 I had never bought a stock. But in looking for an investment, I stumbled on one of the predecessors of this board set up by Sanjeev. Followed it daily for about a year and by late 2007 jumped into Fairfax with both feet, so I owe a big, big Thank You to Sanjeev and fellow members here.

I know what you mean, but perhaps not completely meaningless in this case. Track record is important here as there are a lot of investors out there, that as soon as they hear "Fairfax" they think "Oh yeah, thats that Prem Watsa guy. Wasn't he the Blackberry guy? And wasn't there something about hedging a while back?" I don't know how many times over the past few years I have seen this come up in discussions about Fairfax. So I kinda think that pointing out that FFH is outperforming its peers certainly doesn't hurt in this case. JMHO

Just my 2 cents worth, but it looks like Kirk and Leslie are headed north towards Europe and should settle down before doing any serious damage. Also, a serious hurricane in November would be somewhat of a rarity, however waters are warmer. Since hurricanes are now travelling further north, if we can just get a hard frost it will take a lot of the leaves off the trees and that would considerably reduce damage, plus a lot of the weaker trees have already fallen from previous hurricanes. The optimistic view.

TSX as of Oct. 02/2024 Fairfax Financial................. FFH.............. 52.76% Royal Bank......................... RY ................ 12.27% Altius Minerals.....................ALS ................ 4.68% Aecon Group...................... ARE ................4.63% Terravest Industries.............TVK................ 4.15% Stelco Holdings...................STLC ..............4.00% AtkinsRealis Group............. ATRL.............. 3.38% Berkshire Hathaway............ BRK.B ............2.44% Suncor Energy.................... SU...................2.06% Fairfax India........................ FIH.U..............1.98% Clarke Inc............................CKI ................ 1.91% Fortis Inc..............................FTS................1.23% Generac Holdings............... GNRC ...........1.08% Whitecap Resources ...........WCP ............ 0.73% Cenovus Energy.................. CVE ............. 0.69% Crescent Point.....................CJ................. 0.64% Saputo Inc...........................SAP............... 0.58% Cleveland-Cliffs...................CLF............... 0.35% Think I'm up around 36% 2024 to date. Dividends will add another 2% by end of year.

What truly amazes me is the number of members of CBOF who DO NOT own shares in Fairfax. Have often seen people share their portfolios and FFH is missing. Head scratcher for me.

Well, hurricane season runs June 1 to November 30 so we are well past the halfway point. This year it was predicted that we would see above normal hurricane activity, but that has yet to happen. (There is already a thread here specifically devoted to this.) Living on the Canadian East coast and having lived through both Hurricane Dorion and Hurricane Fiona in the past five years one tends to track these things fairly carefully. If we can just get by for another month or so we should be good for this year. When one finds that "Hurricane Alley" has moved north to include the island on which you live AND your largest investment is Fairfax, hurricanes do tend to get your attention.

Viking asked "But how many board members actually invested in Fairfax in 2020? Or 2021? Or 2022? Or 2023?" Perhaps there are a fair number of board members like myself who have passed on the opportunity to buy more Fairfax shares simply because we have watched our present shares grow in value to a point where Fairfax now form an increasingly larger and larger percentage of our stock portfolios. Personally I am slightly over 50%. However, as a small investor, I might be more tempted to add if shares would split to a more reasonable price per share. For instance a ten for one split would reduce share price to around the level of Canadian banks. JMHO

Putting things in perspective, here is a 20 year chart of Fairfax share price verses the Toronto Stock Exchange for the past 20 years. Factor in FFH yearly dividends and the company has done pretty well for long term shareholders over the years compared to the Canadian market in general.

The best way to get a feel for the details of the Fibrek deal would be to scan through some of the posts on the board at the time https://thecobf.com/forum/search/?q=fibrek&quick=1&updated_after=any&sortby=relevancy&search_in=titles

Yes you are correct in that, my bad, but it was Prem calling the shots. If I remember correctly there was a lot more to this whole mess than meets the eye. But I have a lousy memory and can't be bothered to read all the old posts on the matter so I will let the court judgments speak for themselves.

Re: Fibrek takeover, it seems pretty simple: 1) Shareholders of Fibrek took Fairfax to court because Fairfax underpaid shareholders. 2) The initial Court ruling found that Fairfax should have paid shareholders 100% more than they paid. 3) The appeal court found that Fairfax should have paid 60% more then Fairfax paid. 4) Not one, but two courts both found that Fairfax substantially underpaid Fibrek shareholders - and NOT by small percentages. Bottom line, Fairfax grossly underpaid shareholders for their shares and that to me, seems neither Fair nor Friendly. For some background: https://thecobf.com/forum/search/?q=fibrek&quick=1&updated_after=any&sortby=relevancy&search_in=titles