cwericb

"But Canada’s lax approach to china is a threat to homeland security on so many more issues than just fentanyl. " So driving Canada to find other trading partners like China is a great idea? Really??? You have no idea of how insulted and ticked off Canadians are at this point. Be careful what you wish for.

Then there are also certain minerals that the US needs from Canada as well. We can live without US orange juice and booze, etc, but can the US get along without the minerals, potash, electricity, oil, gas that Canada exports?

I think you miss the point. It is not the dollar amount, it is the dependency the US has on our exports, oil for your refineries, electricity that helps powers your cities, etc.

How about Canada restricts or stops electricity and oil exports?

Aaaaa, the customer? Hello China and the rest of the world.

Canada is the biggest customer of USA products.

DITTO! I am always tempted to walk up to someone in one of those things and ask them if they built it themselves and what would the final version look like?

"Just look at Columbia - they folded like a cheap suite. " Canada ain't Columbia.

And what happens when you piss off your biggest customers? In the last few days I have never seen anything even remotely like the number of ads featuring Canadian products telling us we don't need to buy American. Then too, what happens if Canada decides to reduce the oil your refineries are so dependent on, and, should we so choose, dim your lights in all those Northern U.S. cities using Canadian electricity to heat their homes. PS. Fentanyl seizures from Canada was measured in pounds while from Mexico is measured in tons. And when you look at numbers of illegals crossing from Canada to the US be sure to subtract the number coming from the US into Canada.

"The United States is the world's second-largest exporter of goods, after China" So quick question to you Cubs: Who is the US's biggest customer for it's goods?

Unlike our present PM Turner was qualified for the job.

I am an old guy who has never cast a Liberal vote in his life, although I did sit out a few elections and thought that both John Turner and Paul Martin were pretty damn good. After Trudeau, I had no intentions of ever voting for a Liberal. However. I have tremendous respect for Mark Carney. This guy handled the Bank of Canada through the GFC to the envy of most other countries and to the point where Britain was so impressed that they hired him away to head up the Bank of England. So now I will have to see if Mr. Poilievre is all talk or if he is as smart as some think he is. While some think that Trump was responsible for Trudeau's downfall, nothing could be further from the truth, that is just Trump trying to take responsibility where he had little if anything to do with it. Trudeau has been 'a dead man walking' for quite some time now.

Too many people give Trudeau way too much credit. He is simply not that smart. He is a former drama teacher that happens to look good, is well spoken , and is well connected. Doesn't mean he is any great thinker.

Here is how Andrew Coyne summed up the situation: Andrew Coyne, pulling no punches, on the incoming US administration: “Nothing mattered, in the end. Not the probable dementia, the unfathomable ignorance, the emotional incontinence; not, certainly, the shambling, hate-filled campaign, or the ludicrously unworkable anti-policies. The candidate out on bail in four jurisdictions, the convicted fraud artist, the adjudicated rapist and serial sexual predator, the habitual bankrupt, the stooge of Vladimir Putin, the man who tried to overturn the last election and all of his creepy retinue of crooks, ideologues and lunatics: Americans took a long look at all this and said, yes please. There is no sense in understating the depth of the disaster. This is a crisis like no other in our lifetimes. The government of the United States has been delivered into the hands of a gangster, whose sole purpose in running, besides staying out of jail, is to seek revenge on his enemies. The damage Donald Trump and his nihilist cronies can do – to America, but also to its democratic allies, and to the peace and security of the world – is incalculable. We are living in the time of Nero. The first six months will be a time of maximum peril. NATO must from this moment be considered effectively obsolete, without the American security guarantee that has always been its bedrock. We may see new incursions by Russia into Europe – the poor Ukrainians are probably done for, but now it is the Baltics and the Poles who must worry – before the Europeans have time to organize an alternative. China may also accelerate its Taiwanese ambitions. At home, Mr. Trump will be moving swiftly to consolidate his power. Some of this will be institutional – the replacement of tens of thousands of career civil servants with Trumpian loyalists. But some of it will be … atmospheric. At some point someone – a company whose chief executive has displeased him, a media critic who has gotten under his skin – will find themselves the subject of unwanted attention from the Trump administration. It might not be so crude as a police arrest. It might just be a little regulatory matter, a tax audit, something like that. They will seek the protection of the courts, and find it is not there. The judges are also Trump loyalists, perhaps, or too scared to confront him. Or they might issue a ruling, and find it has no effect – that the administration has called the basic bluff of liberal democracy: the idea that, in the crunch, people in power agree to be bound by the law, and by its instruments the courts, the same as everyone else. Then everyone will take their cue. Executives will line up to court him. Media organizations, the large ones anyway, will find reasons to be cheerful. Of course, in reality things will start to fall apart fairly quickly. The huge across-the-board tariffs he imposes will tank the world economy. The massive deficits, fuelled by his ill-judged tax policies – he won’t replace the income tax, as he promised, but will fill it with holes – and monetized, at his direction, by the Federal Reserve, will ignite a new round of inflation. Most of all, the insane project of deporting 12 million undocumented immigrants – finding them, rounding them up and detaining them in hundreds of internment camps around the country, probably for years, before doing so – will consume his administration. But by then it will be too late. We should not count upon the majority of Americans coming to their senses in any event. They were not able to see Mr. Trump for what he was before: why should that change? Would they not, rather, be further coarsened by the experience of seeing their neighbours dragged off by the police, or the military, further steeled to the necessity of doing “tough things” to “restore order?” Some won’t, of course. But they will find in time that the democratic levers they might once have pulled to demand change are no longer attached to anything. There are still elections, but the rules have been altered: there are certain obstacles, certain disadvantages if you are not with the party of power. It will seem easier at first to try to change things from within. Then it will be easier not to change things. All of this will wash over Canada in various ways – some predictable, like the flood of refugees seeking escape from the camps; some less so, like the coarsening of our own politics, the debasement of morals and norms by politicians who have discovered there is no political price to be paid for it. And who will have the backing of their patron in Washington. All my life I have been an admirer of the United States and its people. But I am frightened of it now, and I am even more frightened of them. Written by Andrew Coyne”

That's interesting. When I think of Fairfax shareholders I tend to think of most being in Canada with some in the US and a few in European countries, but I had never put much thought in it for some reason. So what you are saying that there are roughly 250 Shareholders in the four Nordic Countries, just at your bank alone? I don't know why, but that number is larger than what I would have thought. It really would be interesting to see how FFH/FRFHF shareholders are spread around the world in various countries. I know Fairfax is aware of this board, but I wonder if the company would ever get involved in helping to make their investors aware of this discussion board? I am sure Sanjeev would have thoughts on this.

Thanks John, I had been debating about starting a separate topic and hope it will attract some ideas. The more people who join our forums the more interesting and informative the board will become and I am sure that the larger the pool of investors that belong to the board, the better it will be for all. One other thought. Should we just be searching for those interested in Fairfax, or should we look for a wider range of participants. I mean, we have so many different and interesting threads within CBoF. Perhaps someone could get CBoF mentioned on some podcasts or maybe an interview on BNN, etc etc. ? Perhaps Sanjeev will have some input on the subject.

Here is a thought from out of left field. There are many longtime Fairfax shareholders on this board. But I wonder how many FFH shareholders are NOT on this board and have no idea of its existence? It is not like the board advertises itself. And to follow up, is there some way that we could introduce CBoF to those who might wish to join us? Would it ever be possible to have an some sort of mention, invitation or something made at a FFH annual meeting or sent to shareholders? Just a thought, but it might be something that would be of value to all concerned. Or just a dumb idea? Just thought I would raise the subject.

Agreed. It is far past time that our government in Ottawa grew up and realized that we have a responsibility to maintain a military strong enough to protect our sovereignty. The simplest way to accomplish that is through nuclear weapons, a deterrent to anyone considering invading this country, no matter if that invasion came from the North, West, East or - even the South.

As an Atlantic Canadian myself, it would seem that this area is basically Liberal and only after the Liberals have screwed up completely does the area switch to the Conservatives. Personally, I have never followed that trend believing that the Conservatives are generally more fiscally responsible. But at this point I don't know if there is any amount of ass kissing any Liberal could do that would undo the raw hatred for Trudeau that runs across the whole country. It is not much wonder that so many well known Liberals have bailed. However elections can often produce unexpected results. Anyone unfamiliar with Carney might like to watch this: https://youtu.be/zs8St-fF0kE?si=FENzJ-qLmMkwiVCt I must say though, that assuming Carney wins the Liberal nomination, I will have to give my vote some serious thought.

It is the perception that Fairfax is simply a Canadian company that I would be concerned that might have the biggest impact on share price. In any event, if we can just get an Canadian election over with then things will settle down.

Yup. You know that old Chinese curse ... "May you live in interesting times." Have a good day Cubs.

Agree with most of this SD. I am familiar with Carney's history and have been a big fan since he was head of the BOC. I can not think of a better person for PM. Perhaps best scenario here is a Conservative minority under Polly and Carney as leader of the opposition and then see how things play out?

No Cubs, I know exactly what Trump is doing. I simply do not agree with his methods and eventually it will come back to haunt him and the people he represents. Do you really believe it is a good plan to piss off Canadians towards Americans? You may not see it from where you stand but there is a rising resentment towards Americans, and not just in Canada. This is NOT a good thing. As far as Trudeau is concerned, he has been a total embarrassment to the Canadian people, but at least he hasn't made a point of going around the world pissing off people.

Would be nice if the Conservatives can pull that off. But you know, it is the same old story over and over. Liberals get in and spend, spend, spend. Then the Conservatives get in and have to raise taxes/cut programs to clean up the mess the Liberals have left. So then the voters get mad at the Conservatives and after a term or two and vote the Liberals back in. Rinse and repeat.

I haven't bothered to post returns due to a discouraging December and first half of January. However, I expect (hope?) things will turn around over the next few weeks. But I really shouldn't complain as I still managed a gain of 50.1% in my stock portfolio for 2024 (was pushing toward 60% early December). Also, this doesn't include dividends which would add another perhaps 2ish% to the total. Just going by memory I was up 38% in 2021, 14% in 2022, 28% (?) in 2023 and 50.1% in 2024. But the compound gain over those years has been freaking amazing! Capital gain tax will be a bitch but that may well be my heirs problem. If I have done fairly well, much of this has been almost entirely due to this board and it's members with a little good judgement on my part thrown in. So thank you all so much! My top positions have been: Fairfax /FFH, TerraVest Industries /TVK, Royal Bank /RY, Aecon Group /ARE, Altius /ALS, AtkinsRéalis /ATRL, Stelco also helped. Fairfax accounts for about 55% of my portfolio and at this point I have no intentions of reducing that, despite the fact that I am a little uncomfortable of having "too many eggs in one basket". I think Fairfax share price will probably see an increase as we get closer to 2024 results being released and also as we again see expectations of an add to the TSX 60 in a couple of months.