cwericb

Here is a thought from out of left field. There are many longtime Fairfax shareholders on this board. But I wonder how many FFH shareholders are NOT on this board and have no idea of its existence? It is not like the board advertises itself. And to follow up, is there some way that we could introduce CBoF to those who might wish to join us? Would it ever be possible to have an some sort of mention, invitation or something made at a FFH annual meeting or sent to shareholders? Just a thought, but it might be something that would be of value to all concerned. Or just a dumb idea? Just thought I would raise the subject.

Agreed. It is far past time that our government in Ottawa grew up and realized that we have a responsibility to maintain a military strong enough to protect our sovereignty. The simplest way to accomplish that is through nuclear weapons, a deterrent to anyone considering invading this country, no matter if that invasion came from the North, West, East or - even the South.

As an Atlantic Canadian myself, it would seem that this area is basically Liberal and only after the Liberals have screwed up completely does the area switch to the Conservatives. Personally, I have never followed that trend believing that the Conservatives are generally more fiscally responsible. But at this point I don't know if there is any amount of ass kissing any Liberal could do that would undo the raw hatred for Trudeau that runs across the whole country. It is not much wonder that so many well known Liberals have bailed. However elections can often produce unexpected results. Anyone unfamiliar with Carney might like to watch this: https://youtu.be/zs8St-fF0kE?si=FENzJ-qLmMkwiVCt I must say though, that assuming Carney wins the Liberal nomination, I will have to give my vote some serious thought.

It is the perception that Fairfax is simply a Canadian company that I would be concerned that might have the biggest impact on share price. In any event, if we can just get an Canadian election over with then things will settle down.

Yup. You know that old Chinese curse ... "May you live in interesting times." Have a good day Cubs.

Agree with most of this SD. I am familiar with Carney's history and have been a big fan since he was head of the BOC. I can not think of a better person for PM. Perhaps best scenario here is a Conservative minority under Polly and Carney as leader of the opposition and then see how things play out?

No Cubs, I know exactly what Trump is doing. I simply do not agree with his methods and eventually it will come back to haunt him and the people he represents. Do you really believe it is a good plan to piss off Canadians towards Americans? You may not see it from where you stand but there is a rising resentment towards Americans, and not just in Canada. This is NOT a good thing. As far as Trudeau is concerned, he has been a total embarrassment to the Canadian people, but at least he hasn't made a point of going around the world pissing off people.

Would be nice if the Conservatives can pull that off. But you know, it is the same old story over and over. Liberals get in and spend, spend, spend. Then the Conservatives get in and have to raise taxes/cut programs to clean up the mess the Liberals have left. So then the voters get mad at the Conservatives and after a term or two and vote the Liberals back in. Rinse and repeat.

I haven't bothered to post returns due to a discouraging December and first half of January. However, I expect (hope?) things will turn around over the next few weeks. But I really shouldn't complain as I still managed a gain of 50.1% in my stock portfolio for 2024 (was pushing toward 60% early December). Also, this doesn't include dividends which would add another perhaps 2ish% to the total. Just going by memory I was up 38% in 2021, 14% in 2022, 28% (?) in 2023 and 50.1% in 2024. But the compound gain over those years has been freaking amazing! Capital gain tax will be a bitch but that may well be my heirs problem. If I have done fairly well, much of this has been almost entirely due to this board and it's members with a little good judgement on my part thrown in. So thank you all so much! My top positions have been: Fairfax /FFH, TerraVest Industries /TVK, Royal Bank /RY, Aecon Group /ARE, Altius /ALS, AtkinsRéalis /ATRL, Stelco also helped. Fairfax accounts for about 55% of my portfolio and at this point I have no intentions of reducing that, despite the fact that I am a little uncomfortable of having "too many eggs in one basket". I think Fairfax share price will probably see an increase as we get closer to 2024 results being released and also as we again see expectations of an add to the TSX 60 in a couple of months.

Generally agree. Just wish Carney was running for the for the Conservatives. Poilivere is a bit of a wild card and I wish he would announce some real policies other than "Axe the tax" which is getting a bit old. But barring some unforeseen catastrophe he will be Canada's next PM.

...and that justifies the President of the United States publicly threatening Canada with annexation? Threatening to punish Canada with tariffs? Threatening to force us into submission through an economic war? And this, after the many things we have done for the US over the years? At best he is threatening our independence and at the very least he is publicly insulting and embarrassing Canada in front of the whole world. Who the f*ck does he think he is to threaten us like that? And the border? Why does the United States think that it is Canada's (and Mexico's) responsibility to protect the American border? Isn't YOUR border YOUR responsibility? Sheesh! Now, I suppose a lot in the US think this is all a big joke, but I can assure you that there are a LOT of Canadians who do not see this that way at all. Right now, people here are very concerned, but if this crap keeps up there are going to be a lot of very pissed off Canadians. I live in an area that many Americans own summer homes, spend their summers enjoying our laid back way of life, our cooler weather and our many beaches and warm waters. Right now a lot of Canadians are very concerned and beginning to get pissed off at what we see as our neighbour stabbing us in the back. Bottom line here is, why does your new administration want to pick a fight with their closest ally? For those in the US who think "Oh that's just Trump...". A lot of Canadians don't see it that way. Some might remember that during Covid Mr. Trump tried to push Canada around and quickly backed down when he soon found that it wasn't that easy.

The current government in Canada and its predecessors have essentially ignored our military and it is pathetic for a country with such a proud military history. But history is like a pendulum. Swings left then right, and repeat. About time to swing right.

Yeah Cubs, but that Idiot is soon to be gone. Anyone who thought that some smooth talking, entitled, left wing, part time drama teacher was qualified to run a country got what they deserved. I am all for immigration. But really, I mean really, who thinks that in a country of less than 40 million, you can bring in one million people a year without requiring that a certain percentage be doctors, nurses, skilled workers, etc, etc, simply isn't playing with a full deck. I mean really! And then to give away a billion $ or so every time he appears on TV... Now we have a well qualified candidate for PM. A guy who is an economist and banker and who served as governor of the Bank of Canada, then was hired away to head up the Bank of England and is now head of impact investing at Brookfield Asset Management. BUT, but he is running for the head of the party who gave us Trudeau. Ahh, what to do?

I really doubt Mr Trump, his cohorts and supporters have any idea of the potential Canada has to retaliate in regards to tariffs if we absolutely must. What happens if Canada decides to reduce our water supply to the US, perhaps dam up a few rivers? The US is rapidly running out of water and will soon be in desperate need of water. If the US expects Canada's help this is a funny way to ask for it. We have long memories. How about the amount of Canadian produced electricity coming from and running through several Canadian provinces that helps to power major US cities? Should Canada dim the lights in NYC and Boston for a bit just to get their attention? About $125,000,000,000 yearly Canadian oil goes to the US at a substantially DISCOUNTED price. $22 Billion in petroleum gas exported to the US each year, $27 billion Canadian car parts and vehicles goes to the US yearly as well as billions of dollars in minerals that we sell to the US that are not easily available elsewhere - and certainly not available right next door. Then there is the 4.5 billion a year just in fertilizers that would be very expensive to source elsewhere, etc, etc. The US depends on Canadian exports to the tune of well over One Billion dollars every single day. Why? Because these exports are easily, cheaply and dependably available. Certainly if the US wants to try to cut us off there are lots of other potential markets open to Canada, but our friends to the south might not want to see our exports going countries the US doesn't see as friendly to their interests. What about trade going from the US to Canada? Has Mr. Trump considered who the biggest customer for exports of US produced goods? Probably not the best plan to constantly insult your customers Donald, because Canada has lots of other potential suppliers. These are just a few quick thoughts, but no one up here in the Frozen North* wants any part of this crap, but you can only insult your neighbours so much, and one can already see attitudes hardening towards our good neighbours. Our friends to the South might want to give these things just a little thought. *Interesting fact: About 20 US states have portions of their land area that are equal to, or NORTH of the most southern parts of the Canadian border. Check it out on a map.

That's hilarious! Great minds think alike? Or as they also say "fools seldom differ"

And that advice holds very true when reading posts on this board. Being in business for many years taught me that it is just as, or more important to be able to assess the person who is trying to sell you something, as it is to assess whatever they are trying to sell you. There are certain posters to whom I pay very close attention to their every post and others, well, not so much. Knowing who's advice to follow is invaluable. Just because some posters on CoBF seem to have a comment for every single topic on every subject on CoBF, while entertaining, does not necessarily mean they are purveyors of good advice. From 2021 to 2023 my returns averaged about 25%. in 2024 my stock portfolio gained slightly over 50% despite having a lousy December. Personally I think I have done pretty well, but I am the first to admit that this has not come from any particular personal expertise in examining the details of individual companies. I am a rank amateur. It purely comes from assessing who really knows what they are talking about on the various topics on CoBF. Little hard to explain and hope this makes sense.

Haha. I must disagree. In reading this board (and its predecessors, there are certain posters who really know what they are talking about and ask the right questions. Back in 2006-7 when I was reading everything I could find about Fairfax you, Crip1, were one of the posters that I followed closely and who's posts convinced me to buy Fairfax in the first place. Thank you all!

First shares purchased in 2007 @ $217. Still have them.

Being listed in the US will NOT happen. Fairfax has been there, done that.

Not sure I understand this poll. It could be months before Fairfax is added as stated above. If so, would expect the price of FFH shares will be reasonably higher than they are today not lower, by the time the company is added to the TSX60. So are you suggesting that Fairfax shares will fall and continue to do so until sometime in the future when (if) it is added? Further I would think many of those who did purchase recently will probably hold onto their shares at least until the annual dividend next month.

Exactly.

Personal view. The share price goes up, goes down. Haven't ever sold a share because I am too dumb to try and time the market. If I sold when I thought the price was going to go down, I can assure you the price would jump. And, I would probably never get back in because I would still be waiting for the next price drop or get too ticked off to get back in because I had missed a big price jump. About a third or quarter of my shares were purchased at about $200. Looking back, there were a few frustrating periods with share price, but there were also a number of times when markets would tank and FFH would either stay stable or rise and defy market trends. FFH does help one sleep at night. I often wonder how successful those here who have traded in and out of Fairfax have been over the years. JMHO

"Even after Friday's spike, neither Fairfax nor Aecon look particularly expensive: " Fully agree with you LC. I also have a position in ATRL which I have had for a couple of years and it is atill doing pretty well and I also plan on holding onto it as well.

Well, days like Friday just don't come along often (if ever) and I have to admit that I am still somewhat in shock. I am just a little guy who doesn't profess to really know much stocks and essentially I just buy a few and rarely sell. My portfolio has just 19 stocks and Fairfax represents slightly over 50% of my holdings so a jump of 9% yesterday certainly made for a very good day. But my third largest holding after Fairfax and Royal Bank is Aecon Construction (ARE). Yesterday Aecon jumped 18.7%. Further contributing to a great day, were five of my other stocks that each gained in excess of 2% on a day when when the Toronto Stock Exchange was up less than half of one percent. So with a lot of good luck and much help from this board through the years, (Thank you all!!), I am up 46.25% so far in 2024. Fairfax is still looking pretty good and I have yet to sell a share since I made my initial purchase in 2007 at around $215. (Yes capital gains is going to kill me.) But what I don't understand is seeing board members share their portfolios here and notice some where Fairfax is not listed among their holdings. I mean not only does the name "Fairfax' appear in the very title of the board, but COBF must contain the most detailed and thorough examination of any company listed on the TSX. PS. In 2006 I had never bought a stock. But in looking for an investment, I stumbled on one of the predecessors of this board set up by Sanjeev. Followed it daily for about a year and by late 2007 jumped into Fairfax with both feet, so I owe a big, big Thank You to Sanjeev and fellow members here.

I know what you mean, but perhaps not completely meaningless in this case. Track record is important here as there are a lot of investors out there, that as soon as they hear "Fairfax" they think "Oh yeah, thats that Prem Watsa guy. Wasn't he the Blackberry guy? And wasn't there something about hedging a while back?" I don't know how many times over the past few years I have seen this come up in discussions about Fairfax. So I kinda think that pointing out that FFH is outperforming its peers certainly doesn't hurt in this case. JMHO