yesman182

In an attempt to better understand the ownership structure of FIH.U, I used Claud to try and build a visual. I welcome feedback on what I don't have correct, or what is missing. Overall it was a somewhat frustrating experience, Claud kept putting boxes in bizarre places and had lines crossing each other all over the place and was writing text on top of each other. Makes me wonder if ADBE really is going to die quickly due to AI. Perhaps I am bad at prompting, or perhaps Claud isn't the best AI for this task.

I track my net worth and my spending. I spend <50% of what I earn and invest the rest in real estate and investments, I have done this for several decades. I personally don't see the point in knowing the exact percentage of my investment gains year. I am unsure how I would use that information, if I didn't beat the S&P for several years, should I just move it all to an index? If I consistently beat the index or should I add leverage? I don't have interest in being fully invested in index and I don't want leverage.

I think their headless strategy makes sense. I have never used Slack and I don't have AI agents, but I buy the argument that Slack is a great place for co workers to work and manage AI agents and work. I watched a video on CNBC with a ADBE executive yesterday and he said ADBE would be moving towards more headless offerings.

What price do we see next $60 oil or $100 oil?

What do you mean BRK keeps duration to zero by rule? In the current environment they are, but I am aware of no much spoken rule, other than always wanting 30-50bn cash (not sure what the limit was up to). That money I suspect will always be in tbills. The rest is just sitting ready to be invested. Fairfax and Markel have invested their money, Berkshire is looking for something. So I think Berkshire has the most optionality with 300+ billion of dry powder, you think Fairfax?

By cooperating do you mean lowering imports, or something else that I am missing?

Who do you consider insurance in general? Markel down, BRK down, PGR down, brokers down

Haha I hear ya. One thing I saw this week that I hadn't previously realized, is just how much China has cut its imports. Seems like the article said they are importing like 1/2 of what they were pre conflict. So the worlds largest buyer basically is taking a pause. That doesn't explain everything, but it does help me understand why the price didn't climb like I would have thought.

trimming crox

I am not aware of these books, but I would like to read them. Do you remember the titles? Are they easy to find?

CFO and General counsel are also buying.

Does that change how you feel about owning this on margin? I think you said in the past you own some on margin. If you previous thought the price would rise with strong ROE and now you think it will take hard market, it seems like less reason to own on margin, since the gains could be years away even if the ROE holds up like we expect. I don’t use margin, so I’m just curious if using margin changes your thinking at all. I understand long term we are both think the stock will meet your return hurdle.

Yeah, my take away was that it sounds like the next time this gets to 1.5x BV the market will find plenty of sellers.

i assume he is referring to be assassinated

I have doubt, why do you think Berkshire will start specifying internal purchasing? Benjamin Moore isn’t a new construction paint company, the county I live in has 1 Benjamin Moore store and dozens of sherwin williams, so in my area all commercial and new construction painters use sherwin Williams and I suspect that’s the same for most areas. Similar story with Simpson vs mitek hangers. Every lumber yard in my area stocks Simpson hangers, you can only buy mitek at Menards. I don’t see that an as easy switch. You think there will be an internal directive to only order from Berkshire companies?

FFH was down 2% today and even this board is quite! Sure has been an interesting year. I was a buyer at 1520 today.

your saying my mom will prefer to sell her car used on FB marketplace vs to a dealer?

I don’t follow home builders, do they all offer these services from the press release “It also provides financial services to its customers, including mortgage, title and escrow, and homeowners' insurance.”

Same! Plus FFH

WTF is going on in software today? Away from my computer for 1 day and everything pops 5-10%?!

if only we could be so lucky

Unless Irans leaders feel like they are about to collapse I don’t see why they would compromise with the US. And since the US economy is holding up with oil at $100, I don’t see why they would make large compromises to Iran. It seems like neither economy is being hurt enough to make a deal. I also think more of irans oil is getting to market than we realize, via trains, trucks and captain.

If you upload that image to Claud you can tell it to change whatever you want and it wioo make you a new chart. Or you can have it rebuild that chart with more recent data if you want. I just did that and asked it to add progressive into the chart for comparison. If you like the leverage at FFH, you will really like progressive. I know they aren’t really comparable, but it seems to me that progressive is undervalued too. I think the ROE at progressive can stay elevated, even with a boring bond portfolio somewhat similar to FFH.

These experts originally prognosticated that is this went on more than two weeks we would be at $150+ oil. They are always bullish and commonly wrong. I too am surprised by the oil price, I would have expected it to go up.

United has recently (last two months or so), done two things that make is so that you essentially need their credit card if you fly with them more than once a year. One they raised bag fees (like everyone else), but if you have one of their more premium cards ($150 per year) you get a free checked bag. Second and the bigger deal is that card holders get 10-50% lover award redemption prices with United. So by paying for a credit card your united frequent flier miles are worth significantly more. I will be shocked if others don't copy this award ticket discount for cardholders.