rogermunibond

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-07/michael-burry-predictor-of-mortgage-collapse-bets-on-farmland-and-gold.html

http://translate.google.com/translate?js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fportalexame.abril.com.br%2Fnegocios%2Fnoticias%2Fwarren-buffet-compra-terras-brasileiras-593029.html Google translator link to the original article from Exame.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/96223/000009622310000032/lncsept2010form8k.htm C&S are pissed. Item 8.01. Other Events. On August 9, 2010, Leucadia National Corporation (“Leucadia” or the “Company”) was advised that Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (“FMG”) is asserting that its subsidiary, Chichester Metals Pty Ltd (“FMG Chichester”), is entitled to issue additional subordinated notes in an unlimited amount identical to the $100,000,000 principal amount subordinated note of FMG Chichester held by Leucadia (the “Leucadia Subordinated Note”). FMG further claims that any interest to be paid on additional subordinated notes can dilute, on a pro rata basis, Leucadia’s entitlement to the stated interest of 4% of the revenue, net of government royalties, invoiced from the iron ore produced from FMG’s Cloud Break and Christmas Creek mine areas. This extraordinary claim comes four years after the issuance to Leucadia of the Leucadia Subordinated Note, during which time FMG has never asserted this purported right to dilute Leucadia’s interest in any of FMG’s public filings or other communications. The Leucadia Subordinated Note was issued by FMG Chichester in August 2006 under a Note Deed Poll in the form set forth as a schedule to the July 15, 2006 Subscription Agreement among FMG, FMG Chichester and Leucadia, as amended (the “Subscription Agreement”). Leucadia does not believe that FMG Chichester has the right to issue additional notes which affect Leucadia’s interest or that the interpretation by FMG of the terms of the Leucadia Subordinated Note, as currently claimed by FMG, reflects the agreement between the parties. Leucadia is outraged that FMG and its chief executive officer, Andrew Forrest, now assert this claim.

Histories of the German Weimar period of hyperinflation abound. It lasted about 2 years (1922-1923) IIRC. During the period there were numerous commodity-indexed currency substitutes that were used in commercial transactions. Potato-linked and wheat-linked notes. I have a good history of that episode somewhere but the details escape me. I'll post it later. There's a short article by Reinhart and Savastano called "The Realities of Modern Hyperinflation" published in 2003. That discusses more recent episodes.

Taste does correlate to success but you have to look at your market. McDonalds suited my tastes quite nicely when I was a kid growing up. I agree it truly does have to with execution, and both the Snyder family and the Murrell family have executed and created wonderful businesses.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2010/08/burger-wars-five-guys-bests-inandout.html Zagat Fast Food survey Gives SNS something to shoot for.

I think Lampert's thinking on pension costs is conservative but accurate. 6% discount is much more realistic than the 8% that was used in the 2000-2008 period. Something that Buffett warned against in one of his letters. Looking for purposely hidden value in the pension is no-go for me.

You have an industry that is heavily dependent on government largesse. And that government now wants accountability on what it's getting for its money. IMO, many of the marginal players are in trouble; APOL is the best name in the sector.

I know someone in Omaha is licking his chops... China Said to Mull Insurance Market Easing for Foreign Firms By Bloomberg News Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- China’s insurance regulator is considering opening the market for mandatory liability insurance for automobiles to foreign firms, said three people with knowledge of the matter. The China Insurance Regulatory Commission may allow foreign firms to offer the product, said the people, who declined to be identified because the decision isn’t final. Foreign insurers have effectively been shut out of the broader auto insurance market as drivers tend to choose the same insurer for both optional and compulsory coverage. Almost six years after the insurance market was opened under World Trade Organization commitments, the share of overseas firms including American Insurance Group Inc. is 4 percent. China Life Insurance Co., the world’s biggest life insurer, more than quadrupled revenue in the period in a market that’s expanded an average 30 percent a year during the past three decades to $164 billion.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ATSGS-SecondQuarter-Gains-bw-33152573.html?x=0&.v=1 $0.15 for the quarter seems a little light.

More interestingly why prefer branded soda at all over generic (store label) sodas? I have since given up ever buying branded soda in favor of Wegmans label soda. Taste is about equal and you save $1-2.

Timberwest - largest landholder on Vancouver Island. Stapled unit - suspended dividend on the debenture + equity. McElvaine was a big shareholder and participated in a convertible debt offering they did in 2008.

From May 5, 2010 http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/806636/000095012310054166/c01705e40v24b2.htm

$26 redemption is a nonstarter. From the IPO prospectus... On and after October 20, 2010, we may redeem the series A preferred shares, in whole or in part, at any time, at a redemption price of $25 per share, plus declared and unpaid dividends, if any, to the date of redemption. [glow=red,2,300]We may not redeem the series A preferred shares before October 20, 2010, except that we may redeem the series A preferred shares before that date at a redemption price of $26 per share, plus declared and unpaid dividends, if any, to the date of redemption, if we are required to submit to the holders of our common stock a proposal for any matter that requires, as a result of a change in Delaware law after the date of this prospectus supplement, for its validation or effectuation an affirmative vote of the holders of the series A preferred shares at the time outstanding, whether voting as a separate series or together with any other series or class of preferred stock as a single class.[/glow] The series A preferred shares have no stated maturity and will not be subject to any sinking fund or mandatory redemption and will not be convertible into any of our other securities or property.

BEVERLY HILLS, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--International commercial real estate investment and services company Kennedy Wilson (NYSE: KW) today announced that it entered into a stock purchase agreement with Toronto based Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (TSX: FFH) (TSX: FFH.U) (“Fairfax”) for a commitment by Fairfax to purchase up to $100 million of Kennedy Wilson convertible preferred stock. The private placement creates a new strategic relationship between Kennedy Wilson and Fairfax, which has a market cap of approximately $8 billion and total investment portfolio of approximately $20 billion. “This is the single greatest event in Kennedy Wilson’s history thus far,” said William McMorrow, chairman and CEO of Kennedy Wilson. “We feel very fortunate to begin this relationship with Prem Watsa, chairman and CEO of Fairfax, and the rest of the extremely talented Fairfax team. Not only does Fairfax bring an extremely strong balance sheet and investing track record but, more importantly, our companies share the same long-term, value investing philosophies and were both built from the ground up.” Kennedy Wilson was originally established as an auction house and purchased in 1988 by a group led by Mr. McMorrow, who expanded the company into a full service commercial real estate investment and services company with an international presence. Fairfax was transformed by Mr. Watsa and his partners from a small specialist in trucking insurance 25 years ago to become one of the world’s premier insurance and reinsurance and investment companies. Mr. Watsa, chairman and CEO of Fairfax, commented, “With our long-term focus and value investing philosophy, we believe that this is the right time for Fairfax to begin selectively participating in commercial real estate opportunities, particularly in California, with the highly talented team at Kennedy Wilson.” Kennedy Wilson has taken advantage of the current distress in the real estate market with purchases of note pools and hard assets totaling over $600 million since December of last year. The preferred equity investment by Fairfax carries a dividend of 6% per year and has a mandatory conversion into Kennedy Wilson common stock by May 2015 at $12.41 per share.

Here's the interview mentioned by txlaw. http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/ceo-survey/2010-assets/transcripts/ceosurvey10-Elsztain.pdf There are Motley Fool notes from the LUK annual meeting that mention C&S saying that they sold out of IFIS because the CEO liked debt too much. http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=28501889&sort=postdate

Sears Looking To Profit from Extensive Real Estate Holdings By Mark Heschmeyer April 28, 2010 Sears Holdings Corp., the nation's fourth largest broadline retailer with 3,900 full-line and specialty retail stores in the United States and Canada, has launched a web site to leverage its extensive real estate holdings, as well as to dispose of its closed Sears and Kmart locations. The site is to be officially announced next month at the International Council of Shopping Centers annual convention. The site www.shcrealty.com currently lists 3,779 opportunities across a wide variety of formats within the operating store portfolio, including outlots, demised space, in-line leasing and store-in-store leasing. http://www.costar.com/news/Article.aspx?id=C8080A1234964A24E883C2F7600634E0

Rmitz - It's not an ADR. I believe it trades on the OTC. Ratio is 1:1

Can anyone provide a recap of the CC? Appreciate it. TIA.

Go to Yahoo Finance. Type "acquisition" in the quote window. Voila. Also you can check the OTC and AMEX using similar searches. There are now quite a bit fewer Spacs than there were prior to 2008. Many liquidated or found m/a targets.

2009 Annual Report for Tim McElvaine http://www.mcelvaine.com/Annual%20report%20for%20website.pdf

He shoplifted. He said not so much because he wanted it, but was very angry for being displaced from Omaha by his parents. He did also sell his sister's bike once. Without her consent.

Redskin - this is called the fallacy of composition. If the parts have property than the whole should have the same property. Unfortunately, the 1.3x P/B in ORH and Zenith reflect a control premium that FFH pays to take over the entire enterprise. That premium does not apply for valuing FFH however.

This interview is from early 2009 and was partially published in the Stanford Lawyer. http://www.law.stanford.edu/publications/stanford_lawyer/issues/80/

Love him or hate him, Ackman has some damn good Powerpoint designers working for him!