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Spooky

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Spooky last won the day on December 9 2022

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  1. If everyone thinks like this won't it corrode US society / capitalism in the long run?
  2. How does the board feel about some of these Trump cabinet picks? Matt Gaetz as AG doesn't fill me with confidence for the prospects of the rule of law or a politically independent DOJ.
  3. Devil Take the Hindmost Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds Irrational Exuberance There are also a few chapters in Howard Marks' book The Most Important Thing which are great on bubbles and directly relevant to your question.
  4. Ordered the book, looking forward to reading it.
  5. This is built in to interactive brokers for transfers of funds / deposits.
  6. Two factor authentication Unique strong password for each account (I use Bitwarden to manage my passwords and can monitor if a password is hacked / released on the dark web) Have several different brokerage accounts
  7. Agree wholeheartedly. They key to happiness is lowering your expectations.
  8. Have to agree with the thrust of @Spekulatius comments here. Looking at the raw data and the US economy seems to be in excellent shape and is much better than its global peers. Most countries would kill to have the economic strength and dynamism that the US is exhibiting. The problem, as usual, is that the benefits of this economic strength accrue to the top 1-10% of the population and the effects of inflation are felt more acutely by poorer segments of the population. Under the first Trump administration, ordinary people benefited since stimulus checks were sent directly to individuals. This is part of the reason why people remember his administration so fondly. The downside of this is that the distribution of stimulus directly into the economy is what led to the initial spike of inflation - too much money in the real economy chasing too few good with supply constraints. The stimulus in 2008/2009 didn't make it's way out of the banks that needed to repair balance sheets so it didn't have the same inflationary effect. Now the really interesting part is whether or not Trump / the republican's policies will be better for 90% of the population. I'm not really sure. Tariffs would be inflationary. Also, if they want to extend the tax cuts they will need to cut spending elsewhere or blow out the deficit. Government spending is one of the key drivers of economic growth currently. Biden's policies were going back to the period prior to neoliberalism - more industrial policy, stronger unions, infrastructure spending etc. There has been a surge in reshoring activity of US manufacturing jobs after reshoring progress declined under Trump. The largest surge in manufacturing-related construction spending on record, which appears directly tied to passage and implementation of the Chips bill; key locations include Arizona, Ohio and New Mexico. An industrial policy that overwhelmingly benefits GOP districts: ~75% of energy bill spending is going to GOP districts. Close to an all-time high in the labor force participation rate. Highest YTD equity gains in an election year since 1936. Will be interesting to see what happens but Trump and his team are inheriting something quite good.
  9. Interesting. Wonder how fast until Trump tries to fire him! I've been reading Trillion Dollar Triage and there were some run-ins between Trump and the Fed in his prior term.
  10. We're all probably better off not letting partisanship affect our portfolio investment decisions. The latest JPM Eye on the Market was interesting, there is a section discussing this issue and a Trump victory: https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/kamilton-amv.pdf
  11. a black swan super compounder for the next decades!
  12. Do we have a definitive list of which investments are Todd's vs Ted's vs Buffett's?
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