maplevalue

This is how I think about NTDOY. With the additional point being that one day I wouldn't be surprised if Apple tries to buy NTDOY.

Candidate who is likely to become Mayor of Toronto announces an extra 1% land transfer tax on homes over $3mm (https://www.oliviachow.ca/more_support_for_people_who_need_it_most).

Thanks for sharing this with us. I put this in the pile of financial imbalances that built up over a time period of very low interest rates. Rates have not even gone up that much and some big cracks starting to appear!

Probably look at something in small caps where the opportunity is too small for the big quant funds (ie where most of the quant talent is) to bother taking advantage of.

Slightly different topic, but one of the things I have found interesting lately is we have seen more op-eds from some of the leading newspapers in Canada questioning the wisdom of the government's immigration policy. This would have been unheard of a few years ago. What really caught my eye was this column from the left-leaning Toronto Star. Dear immigrants: Coming to Canada? Here’s what you’re really in for https://archive.ph/vsON2

From the just released 2023 Canada budget.

In my experience doing proprietary trading on the sell side, any given year the vast majority of my P&L was driven by a very small amount of trades (usually 3-5) which were either sized relatively large, or I was able to let run through my initial target. Finding the trades you could size up was key, and in order to do this you need a good understanding of the downside. All this is to say I would be more comfortable with a concentrated portfolio. One technique I have seen is people look at their concentration based on the book value of their positions. I think this makes a lot of sense.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/greece-months-away-investment-grade-rating-says-cbank-chief-ft-2023-03-07/ How times change. Maybe this leads investing in Greece back into the mainstream ” March 7 (Reuters) - Greece is close to regaining its investment-grade credit rating in 2023, after 12 years of relegation to junk status, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday. "We think that 2023 is the year will get the investment grade," Greek central bank chief Yannis Stournaras said in an interview with the paper, urging the country's next government to maintain fiscal prudence. Stournaras told FT he was "confident" that credit rating agencies would upgrade Greek bonds within months should lawmakers signal their intent to maintain reforms and take advantage of a "window of opportunity" to significantly lower the country's debt burden.”

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-s-largest-apartment-landlord-reports-record-rent-turnover-in-q4-1.1887499

Eurodollar futures if you can access them will let get this type of exposure.

On the point of it "likely take years to fully play out", you are very right on that from a Canadian perspective since 75% of variable rate homeowners payments are fixed (i.e. payment same, interest/principal split changes, or amortization extended; https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/11/staff-analytical-notes-2022-19/). It just delays the pain, but one day these borrowers will have to pay!

Today is a day where one would really think your trade should be working (strong economic data -> high rates -> bad for long duration ARKK stuff) but price action is doing the opposite of what we would expect based on this. May be indicating the tech stuff just got too oversold. (I recently bought SMT which very similar to ARKK...trying to bottom feed).

Took me awhile because had to import things to Quicken across many accounts (which is a bit of a pain). 2022: -12.8% IRR Roughly in line with S&P which looking back was quite a remarkable feat given coming into the year was 1/3 growthy EM stocks which got marked down by 1/3 during the year. Thank you Fairfax Financial (a position which I very fortunately added to in early November). I continue to tilt very heavily non US (relative to the index which is ~60% US) for the diversification.

Watched Tokyo Vice. Great show with some great acting although I didn’t care much for the final episode.

Is it not interesting how the "high inflation is now a secular phenomena" theme emerged precisely after a bout of inflation which was quite clearly caused by shutting down most of the economy while sending out cheques to people to not work. I feel like it's very easy for economists to construct a narrative around high inflation when they can point to the current YoY rate and shout "deglobalization" "demographics" "a new commodity supercycle"...much harder for them to go out and understand the tremendous, and in my opinion underappreciated, efficiency gains from technology happening (for goodness sake Moderna had designed the COVID vaccine by March 2020!). Inflation is a very very very very difficult thing to understand/forecast. Which is why I am coloured skeptical of the new consensus that has emerged around it.

Yes

Two adds to existing positions recently: Morguard NA Residential REIT - one of cheapest REITs out there who are buying back shares for first time since 2016 Scottish Mortgage Trust - a small 'we are past peak inflation' position

Memory is a little hazy of the exact details of how these work, but I am starting to think the most likely explanation is these large volumes are related to taxation around the dividend. From what I understand in Canada (and I believe more generally) there are certain entities that pay less tax on dividend payments (a public pension plan would be one such entity I believe). However, many other investors (retail included) are subject to taxes on dividends. I think this might have to do with where the entity resides (I think the tax rate on dividends from Canadian companies is different for Canadians versus international investors). What I believe can happen is you have buy-sell-back agreements where a investor subject to tax sells shares today and simultaneously enters into an agreement to buy them back at a future date. Beneficial ownership passes to the nontaxable entity over the dividend date, pays less tax, and then the shares revert back to the taxable investor afterwards. Tax advantaged investor makes a fee, bank facilitating the trade makes a fee, taxable investor avoids some tax. There was a case in the UK that was related to this type of trading around the dividend date (but in a far more fraudulent manner https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/uk-watchdog-narrows-dividend-stripping-investigation-2022-12-15/). I don't know exactly how everything would be structured, but possibly in this buy-sell-back arrangement something has to be reported to the exchange, and hence the massive volume numbers.

Perhaps FFH converting the TRS into actually buying back the shares?

Is the Bottom Almost Here? Yes.

On this note, it is remarkable how quiet the Toronto subway is during regular week rush hours. For many younger Canadians I think the case for living close to the downtown core is really weakening.

Jack Ma’s Ant Wins Approval for $1.5 Billion Capital Plan https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-04/jack-ma-s-ant-group-wins-approval-for-1-5-billion-capital-plan

https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk/individual-investors/short-briefings-on-long-term-thinking/ic-podcast/short-briefings-on-long-term-thinking-podcasts-episode-5-will-industrial-biotech-be-the-next-manufacturing-revolution-10001896/ EPISODE 5 - WILL INDUSTRIAL BIOTECH BE THE NEXT MANUFACTURING REVOLUTION Industrial biotech companies can already produce synthetic spider silk and plant-based burgers that taste like meat. Future possibilities include timber produced from yeast. In the latest episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking, Kirsty Gibson tells Malcolm Borthwick why she's fascinated by the opportunities of industrial biotech and its enormous investment potential.

In a year where Russia, one of the largest EMs, becomes completely uninvestable for those in developed markets, I find it a bit surprising that EEM and SPY are basically down the same YTD. (and yes I know the EEM looks worse if you look at a longer time horizon)

And it had to happen on a day where SPY -2.5%