wescobrk

Anyone care to share their best ideas to profit from increasing volatility and a slowdown in the United States (and world) economy sometime in the next 2 years beside leaps on the S&P? Thanks.

"Note that Biglari has been buying BH and BH/A shares in his personal accounts recentl" Are you sure they are in his "personal" accounts? I thought the filing showed it was from Lion Fund 2 which is owned by BH shareholders.

At where it closed today, I think it is around 1.25 book reasonably projected for year end? It if closes lower again then we are pretty close to the 1.2. Looks like getting close to an all in on Berkshire?

I know there have been a million written already, but it seems as though virtually all of them quote Buffett and provide reference where they are quoting him, but they don't get permission to use his quotes except for the book from Cunningham. I suppose my question has answered itself, in that an author doesn't have to get permission to quote him as long as he provides the proper reference, right?

I watched part of the 94 meeting. I'm looking forward to watching all of them over the coming months. I noticed he was a lot more guarded in the 90's with stocks they are buying. Buffett talks about what he is buying and selling all the time now (Apple and IBM) whereas in 94 he wouldn't even talk about what he likes about Wrigley in case they might buy it in the future.

Has anyone ever been to an Amazon annual meeting? I'm guessing it is very brief and nothing like Berkshire?

Interesting, how much more did they buy in 2017?

What is best guess estimate of Berkshire's book value they will report in a couple of weeks?

me as well, thanks!

Anyone care to voice opinion on probability of CVS and AT&T deal going through for a risk arb play? Maybe 75% for CVS and 50% for Time Warner?

What is the closest thing to Fairfax back in 2007 to make money on the way down but not utilizing puts of the S&P? I don't want to have a clock running as a put would.

I don't understand the part that he has to buy stocks that are less than $35 a share. Seems very arbitrary. I guess that means he can't buy Berkshire if it falls below book like in 2000. Maybe he could outperform more if he didn't have so many restrictions. That being said, I read his book and I enjoyed it. Nothing groundbreaking in it. I thought it was a good read, though.

I remember him publicly shorting Netflix and Reed Hasting writing a public letter convincing him to drop the short... Not sure how much that hurt him.. He was vocal about not liking Trump and getting out of stocks because of not liking him and that he was 60% cash. I found this surprising that he would make such a hasty decision not on whether the stocks he owned where fundamentally cheap but rather on an external factor. Basing investment decisions on your politics doesn't seem like a sound strategy especially when your making those decisions with other peoples money. He must have been asleep for the past 15 years of Munger meetings.

Why would he give a damn what people say on the internet? He clearly has made a lot of money off of the partnerships so he can do exactly what he wants to do for the rest of his life. I wouldn't care about internet posters (no offense) If I succeeded as well as he has (despite all of the criticisms of his inconsistency and long term track record performance). He's probably smiling every day he checks his bank account.

Anyone think the 30 bucks selloff is a overreaction to Amazon buying Wholefoods? I'm not saying COST is cheap at this level (although it almost never seems to be cheap) but it looks like an overreaction. My guess is it will be closer to 3-5 years to see Amazon start taking share from COST.

At the end of the day the 10 year treasury yield is a barometer for market expectations of growth + inflation. Maybe it isn't both anymore since the last 8 years the economy has grown at 2 and inflation has been 1.5 so more like a 3.5 10 year would make more sense.

giddy up!

I thought this was way too short. I finished it under an hour. Seems like a rush job by the author. I think anyone can do a google search and learn just as much. Just my opinion.

I was baffled by the post Schloss had even greater wealth. Wasn't Schloss' long term record around 100 basis points greater than S&P? Not bad but far below Warren's 1000 basis points, plus, Warren did it with several more zeros of money to allocate. Schloss is a stooge compared to Warren and Charlie.

Mine arrives Thursday. I'm looking forward to it.

Thanks for everyones comments. There was a little bit of truth to my comment as Buffett has spoken in the past when the market was elevated (such as in 2000) he predicted the returns would drop to I believe mid single digits. We have seen his cash rise a lot with the market is elevated, technically he is't "timing" because obviously no one knows when it will happen, but he is timing to some degree because he is calculating a lot lower rate of return if he buys at high levels, so clearly somewhere in the equation is a drop over some time frame, just like his statement about 10% probability in any given year means 99.5% change it'll happen over 50 year period. Buffett is timing, I believe, it's just over a multi year period. This is an arbitrary number, but I believe when a market is overvalued, his calculation is that happens say, within a 5 year period.

Obviously, I'm not looking for an exact day or month, but what is everyone's guess of the next 15-20% decline? I've read one happens every 5 years. I believe the last one we had was in the summer of 2011. We are 5.5 years in.

Ditto, I bought both of them this morning as well.

gracias, busy news day with brexit vote.

Anyone find the exact date? I've only read they will be released by end of month. I bought some BAC in case mr. market has a change of mind at $13.75.