wescobrk

Bac and c are down big as well in premarket. I haven't had a chance to read jpm. I tried to buy some wfc at the last 30 seconds of trading yesterday but it didnt fill. Wfc is up a tad this morning. Citigroup is now about 20 percent discount to tbv

What does everyone think of republican congressman camp to tax banks with 500 billion in assets? Obama has pushed for it for the last three years. What does everyone think of the chances of it passing next year? Jp,c,bac and wfc should earn close to 100 billion at some point in a single year. The probability will probably rise each year. The government of course has indirectly already "taxed" morgan and bac in the tens of billions.

I agree Becky does a good job of keeping the focus on the guests. I don't like how kernan takes forever to formulate his question. That being said, I do find him funny sometimes.

A tad off topic but I was wondering if anyone is aware if there are laws against talking about a limited partnership fund while doing a podcast? I'm in the United States. I still have my day job but would like to do something else in 5 years. I believe sec/finra finally relaxed rules for talking about investment funds to the public?

Thanks for posting.

Good luck to all citi and bac shareholders this month. About three weeks until citi and bac announce they are actually paying a dividend (4 cents doesn't count). Granted the majority will go towards stock buybacks but almost 8 billion a piece including buybacks and dividends each will probably see a lot of momentum traders bid bac close to 18 and citi to 55-57.

I was wondering how long it would take to buy a company where he isn't CEO.

When is the release date of the letter?

For selfIsh reaSons, I hope it's citi. They announced ahead of the Fed last year as well. Too bad yellen is taking two weeks longer than under Bernanke for those of us that are tired of our stakes in certain banks that are trading lower than 9x next year's earnings. Hopefully this will finally be a catalyst to make some money.

Another pass to weather. If the next report is like this that can't be good. Eventually all the prominent CEOs have to come out and say they are wrong about 3percent GDP this year and we are still at 2 -2.5. Maybe productivity is increasing or we will eventually get revised up. Dec was only revised up 1k. Is it just me or is mark Zandhi always terribly wrong on all his predictions? Jeez, a broken clock is right twice a day but that guy I wonder how he keeps his job.

"Banks like C and BAC today achieve their earnings with far less risk compared to then, and consequently I think there should be a risk/adjusted increase in the market P/E for the same dollar of earnings. " Bac is getting it at 12x earnings but nobody wants citi around 9x earnings. At least for now. I'm a bit surprised still no ccar date release. Last two years fed published around jan 29th. Maybe they won't do the two step release and they just announce all at once on march 7th.

I should probably turn my Ira over like Eric. Watching citi everyday is distracting me from my work. Down every day for two weeks. About 16 percent discount to tangible book. New ism number out and below expectations. Dimon, Moynihan, etc all think 3 percent GDP this year. IMF thinks global growth will increaese. disconnect to everyone saying economy is improving with 1200 point sell off in last couple of weeks.

"Comparing multiples to book or tangible book may not be the best alternative for Citi right now. If you instead look at price to basel 3 tier 1 capital used at Citicorp (i.e. excluding Holdings) and compare that to BAC and JPM, they are very similar (1.4x in all 3 cases). This makes sense considering that capital tied up at Holdings has a negative return now. However, this ignores the high probability that Holdings will break even in the near term as well as the pace of capital build up at Citicorp from earnings, DTA use and decline in Holdings RWA. Citi is on its way to massive over capitalization in the next 2-4 years and the stock price doesn't reflect it. This is perhaps reasonable given Citi's performance in the 2012 ccar (who knows if shareholders will get their hands on that excess capital) but it sill ignores the ~20% annual growth in basel 3 tier 1 capital that Citicorp can achieve in the next 3 years just by staying the course (i.e. using Wall Street consensus numbers, which assume modest earnings growth). As a side note my work relates to investing in EM and I'm from Argentina. The issues going on there are specific to the country, I don't think the chances of contagion are high, but we'll see." Thanks for your comments. I've seen estimates for 25 cent dividend and 5-7 billion in buybacks in March. They are estimating roa of 90-110 by next year so I'm assuming assuming holdings will be at break even by late next year. 2015 and beyond ccar should be very attractive.

I honestly don't know. It use to sell at multiples of book value but that won't ever happen again. It probable sold around the same multiple of bac and jpm pre 08.

It looks like cities max exposure to Argentina is 17 cents a share. They have a lot more exposure to Brazil and Mexico. That would be the time to get worried, if it spread. My comment about it not lasting more than 2 weeks is speculation of course as psychology can feed on itself. My earlier post was trying to wrap my head around the 25 percent discount to bac. If there is contagion with em I suppose that discount is warranted. Mexico seems to be doing quite well. Anyone on thew board follow EM closely? If so, what is the probability of contagion and things getting much worse?

They do have a bigger presence but so far I haven't heard of any impairments.. Their max loss to Argentina is less than a billion. If this doesl turn into 97-98 again I can see that but it's a lot different now compared to then. Floating currencies, less external debt. China just released their January pmi at 50.5. They are still expanding. I think within 2 weeks we will shoot upward. I plan to be better protected in the future though.

So far I look like an idiot with citi. I don't understand why bac is trading at 12.5x earnings and citi is at 9.5. I didn't think the market would wait till March 1st and then the banks would shoot up for ccar 3 years in row. I thought it would happen by now. I'm ready for mid march when the dividend raise is announced and in April when citi can start buying back stock. In the aftermarket it was trading at 15 percent discount to tangible book but it earned 8 percent last year and this year is 9 percent on tangible book. The irr is well over 10 percent. Interest rates are at zero and the 10 year treasury is at 2.6 and we are suppose to grow at 3 percent GDP according to Moynihan and other bank ceos with the biggest loan and deposit growth in years. The risk premium with citi is about 800 basis points. I feel like I'm living on an island and no one else sees this. I'm not arguing it should be at 12.5x earnings like back but 9.5? I don't get it. It should at least be at 11x earnings. The bloody earnings rate for the investor is higher than the multiple. And this is a company that earned 4.42 this year, projected by all analysts to earn 5 this year and 5.85 next year. And a dta worth a third of the market cap. That's part of being a value investor willing to look like you are on a deserted island.

Anyone want to chime in on ccar results for bac, c and Jpm? Below is estimate from kbw. No idea how accurate this will be but might be in the ballpark. Here are the seven big banks where KBW expects to see increases of more than 50% in returns of capital to investors in 2014 (the second quarter of 2014 through the first quarter of 2015) from 2013 (the second quarter of 2013 through the first quarter of 2014): Citigroup (C_): Dividend payout of $594 million plus $7.686 billion in share buybacks, for a total 2014 capital return of $8.279 billion, increasing from just $121 million in 2013. Capital One Financial (COF_): Common-share dividend payout of $801 million plus $2.0 billion in share buybacks, for a total 2014 capital return of $2.801 billion, increasing 123% from $1.259 billion in 2013. Bank of America (BAC_): Common-share dividend payout of $2.599 billion plus $5.140 billion in share buybacks, for a total 2014 capital return of $7.739 billion, increasing 81% from $4.270 billion in 2013. Zions Bancorporation (ZION_) of Salt Lake City: Common-share dividend payout of $52 million, less a net issuance of $2 million in common shares, for a total 2014 capital return of $50 million, increasing 78% from $28 million in 2013. SunTrust STI of Atlanta: Common-share dividend payout of $318 million plus $569 million in share buybacks, for a total 2014 capital return of $878 million, increasing 74% from $504 million in 2013. Wells Fargo (WFC_): Common-share dividend payout of $6.816 billion plus $5.563 billion in share buybacks, for a total 2014 capital return of $12.379 billion, increasing 69% from $7.325 in 2013. BB&T. Common-share dividend payout of $724 million plus $462 million in share buybacks, for a total 2014 capital return of $1.186 billion, increasing 55% from $767 million in 2013.

Fed might actually pause at 75 on wed if we keep dropping like this.

"Come on, check your number" I checked Bloomberg from my phone. Apologize if misread it.

For the more able people on the board than me regarding macro impact, how big of an impact can the news of the past couple days affect global growth? I just watched Moynihan on cnbc thinks he United States will grow 3 percent and 3.6 percent for global growth.

Nice job! Futures are down another 335 for Monday on the Dow

I can't find anything on the date from the fed. Last year was march 15th. Anyone know when the fed will release the date?

I want to go. I hope I can meet others from the board.

Yesterday Cramer said sell citi and buy bac. C was below tbv and bac is north of 25 percent. Needless to say, I did the opposite. I'm glad Cramer is on the air as he helps me make money with he almost always go with the herd mentality.