wescobrk

I'm going out on a limb and predicting a preferred deal with warrants by Berkshire in the next 30-60 days. Not a controversial comment. The interesting question is which sector? Airlines is probably near the top.

How many think we will "reopen" US economy by mid May? I'm not sure if there are voting buttons. I have puts for protection but I also have a some call leaps. I'm starting to think I should have more puts now. NY is the worst and the governor thinks they will peak by end of this month. The peak doubling time has slowed the past couple of days. Mid May doesn't sound ridiculous, does it? I'm not saying the numbers won't come back by fall but there could be a massive rally this summer before it crashes again.

That is the question of the day (S&P hitting 2k). Gundlach thinks we will retest the lows. Marks thinks we are headed lower. There is already talk of another infrastructure bill of $2 trillion. I guess it all comes down to if the country "reopens" in May. If we do, then we may not get down to 2k but if we don't reopen by mid May then it will probably go south of 2k and south of 1700. The market is probably discounting a May reopening is the only reason why we never went lower than 35% from the peak.

I'm going to need to buy a new laptop in the coming weeks. I would appreciate anyone that wants to share their favorite laptops. Thanks.

What does the board think of Ben Bernanke making references that this isn't a depression and something similar to a natural disaster and will be a sharp but a short recession and a sharp rebound? If you take his comments along with Bill Gates of opening up the economy in 6-12 weeks then things could start to look somewhat back to normal in the summer. If the market discounts the future and the market bottomed 3 months before the real economy in 2009, maybe the market could bottom as early as April. I would be surprised if we don't hit at least 40-45% down if not 50% before the bottom but if the duration is going to be months and not years, then maybe the bottom is as close as April. On the other hand, it seems like sectors of this hit we will be feeling the after effects for years, at least for poor countries. Emerging markets looks particularly worrisome.

Hopefully he can close on a big acquisition like BNSF (although I'm not super impressed with the results from BNSF). Warren being disciplined on price (and buying in 2009 plus buying almost 20% of the stock at very low prices) helped enormously. Apparently, Precision wasn't a great acquisition either. It might not be possible to find another Geico due to all the capital in the world, but I'm confident he can find something by the end of the year. Almost 90 and Charlie is 96 and still going strong!

Thanks for the feedback!

Do any board members have any positions in MFA? If so, what are your thoughts? I'm looking to put in a tiny position.

I have some shorts but I went long quite a bit in the last 5 min of Friday. So much for a bounce. Maybe down 10% tomorrow? It is going to be an ugly day tomorrow. I need more cash. How can we not go down more than 50% from the peak as bad as everything is? The news will be even worse this week.

I'm so glad he started streaming the annual meeting. The irony is this will be the best annual meeting Berkshire from his first one in the 60's and no one (physically) will be there. I'm going to have the popcorn ready for that 1st Sat in May!

how much are we down from the peak now? around 36%? futures are down almost 5% tomorrow morning so if that holds that takes us to 41%. Good news is we got a phase 2 very quickly with the stimulus. The government is moving a lot faster than in 2008.

Anyone want to venture which casinos will NOT go under? MGM is under $9 now. Caesars, Wynn, Las Vegas Sands. LVS seems to have one of the better balance sheets. Red Robin I'm guessing will have to declare bk in the restaurant sector.

ha, ok, I'll get to work. :)

We are probably a few weeks away, but I'm going to allocate maybe 5% of my capital to potential 10-100 baggers. I'm fully aware most of the companies I choose will go under but if I buy 20 companies and 3 or 4 go up 50 fold, that is pretty damn attractive. Feel free for anyone to post companies they think might drop that far and are willing to put a small amount of capital for companies that are cyclical and might pull through. Thanks.

That's strange. My post didn't go through. I put the mass looting question was hyperbolic but i stand by the rest of my other comments. Probably just a story here or there about looting but not mass looting. Thanks for challenging me.

How much money do you need? If you don't pay your phone bill, AT&T won't cut you off. If you don't pay for ANY utility right now, no one will cut you off. You won't be spending money on gas, leisure, hobbies etc. You're just buying food right now. I think most Americans have credit cards right? Trump is trying to send the checks by end of april and I'm betting most of the banks will waive the credit card interest if you really need it. Good point. I need some caffeine to write more precise. Mass looting was a dumb statement but the rest of my comments I stand by about Congress, market downside, maybe a few stories here and there about looting but not mass looting. Finally, most Americans will still be getting their next couple of paychecks because most Americans have normal jobs.

I hope we don't see rioting. 40% of the country has less than $400 according to that Fed study, right? How can we avoid mass looting?

I have been short some going into yesterday but I realized that 30% down is not nearly enough as this can be worst than 08. I bought a lot of puts yesterday afternoon into the rally. I'm glad I did. I think we have at least another 10-20% down from here. Millions of jobs are going up in smoke. The unemployment rate will skyrocket. It will be just like in 08 when Congress wouldn't pass Tarp. Certainly, we will tackle this and things as early as 4 weeks may already have the market bottoming but I'm so glad I put a lot of puts on. If we are down 12% today like last week I'll switch to going long in very strong balance sheet companies. I might even put my toe in the water in some of the strongest restaurant names but I know there is still huge downside for restaurants.

The companies that have strong balance sheets and are in the cyclical sector have huge risk/reward right now. Anyone want to share any ideas in casino, food, etc?

Should have more opportunities this week. Futures are limit down.

Anyone know of a few good sites for intelligent analysis on the pound vis a vis the dollar for this year? I know a few people that have money in England that are thinking about bringing it over to the states due to their concern about Brexit. Thanks!

Does anyone remember during the financial crisis the lowest point relative to book value? I believe today we are only about 20 billion away or about 5% drop from here. Forgot the former metric of 1.2x book we are almost below book.

I think I'm reading Whitney Tilson's weekly email for comedy now. The man actually wrote yesterday the coronavirus is the most irrational thing he has ever seen. It makes me bullish of being able to profit from idiotic behavior even when someone graduated in the top 5% of his class at Harvard Business School and has been to every Berkshire and Wesco meeting for more than 20 years. This guy says Tesla will go below $100 (wtf?) and every week how more sure he is of Tesla to the coronavirus to the most irrational thing he has ever seen from how it is impacting markets. No wonder all of his investors left and now he is a writer.

We are still only around 15% down. More downside to go. At least another 10%.

I don't know if this is a stupid way of doing it, but out of intellectual curiosity, if one were to short the long treasury, is buying long term puts on TLT a stupid idea for a small position?