wescobrk
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Everything posted by wescobrk
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Anyone know why? When did Buffett stop including this in the annual report? Was this the first year? I'll click on older versions now and try and figure out when they discontinued it. I don't understand how that helps current future shareholders to erase those partnership guidelines unless he is leaving it out to give Todd and Tedd the freedom to create their own partnership guidelines when Buffett and Munger pass? That still doesn't answer the question why now as they could both (hopefully) live another 5 years or more.
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$152 that touched I think yesterday might be the closest we will see of my $150 post a few weeks ago.(Baba)
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if the 10 year treasury were to hit 2% by year end, what kind of ballpark return would pfix earn? thanks.
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I did a search for Daily Journal but didn't find anything. No news to report. Latest 13F is out this morning. Looks the same as the last quarter. I was curious if he bought anymore Alibaba, but I didn't see a change.
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Does anyone on the board own this? If so, any thoughts you want to share? I'm looking to take advantage of the yields increasing over the next year or two. I'm just beginning research on it.
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I think the cash is for two reasons: 1) lack of finding something cheap with S&P trading in the 20's on a multiple and 2) he is going to err more on the side of leaving a ton of ammo for Todd and Ted as he knows (sadly) his mortality is almost up (of course I'm rooting for him to live another decade. He was actually selling Apple during the lows of Covid last year shows how timid he is now towards marketable securities.
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So Calpers thinks a great job is 8.4% whereas an index fund I believe returned almost double that number? Meanwhile they are apoplectic about a guy receiving $16 million that created $50 billion of value, furthermore, according to the above link, their last few executives have been in prison and have lied about something as basic as a college degree. Glass houses. One reason maybe Calpers has so much news play is they are part of a union and are taking on the "evil capitalists. " "fund would have to achieve compound annual growth rate returns of 8.4% over five years for the CIO to reach the maximum $2.4 million."
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50 billion dividend by $16 million is about 3000 years. Ajit joined Berkshire in the 80's so he worked for maybe 35 years so $50 billion divided by 35 is roughly $1.42billion. I don't remember the exact year Buffett said that but it was over 5 years ago right so 50 divided by 30 is 1.66 and let's say he made another 2 billion or so since then so let's round up to 1.7. If we use the Buffett performance from his partnership he kept 25% after 6 so roughly 20% let's say so that comes out to roughly $340 million a year you could argue even if you think I'm an idiot for using that number let's cut it in half that is $170 million or an order of magnitude higher than ISS's recommendation. I never researched how ISS came to be the default for fund managers not to think for themselves but they have some real idiots at ISS!
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I applaud his decision to abandon the insurance company as there is nothing wrong with changing your mind if your initial analysis was wrong but I'm curious what analysis he did to form a holding company for insurance?
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This is a quote from Calpers: “It remains unclear if any portion of [executive] pay is tied to company performance,” ISS said. “The continued lack of transparency raises concern as to whether the compensation committee is providing adequate oversight.” Are you fucking kidding me? The man has created over $50 billion of value per Buffett and Munger and his pay of $16 million is too much? WTF?
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I think Chamath would do very well in politics. He actually has something in common with Trump. They are both brilliant in playing to the populist movement.
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I finally read the WSJ article on Chamath. So he called Robinhood executives corporate scumbags and should go to jail and Robinhood declined to comment per the WSJ article. But Robinhood attacks a 97 year old Charlie Munger about being an elitist?! WTF?! Attack Munger but Chamath is hands off?
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That's fine he wants to sell for climate change but don't say in multiple interviews you will be a shareholder for the long term. Tell people in interviews that it is based on valuation or "things could change." Once you tell the world something and repeat it on multiple interviews and then do something else then how many other things are you doing in private that you are misleading people?
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He sold 6 million shares of Virgin Galactic. I thought he said a few weeks ago after news broke he sold shares that he is a long term holder. A bit confusing unless I missed what he said. He also claimed on Bloomberg recently his net worth is $10 billion. if that is correct then how can he claim 2% of his net worth he needs to fund his future projects like he has claimed in the past? He probably tripled his money in Virgin in less than a year so why not just be honest and say I tripled my money and it is overvalued instead of all this bullshit about being a long term older and I need money for new spacs?
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Does anyone think I'm crazy if I think 2% is the ceiling for 10 year Treasuries? At least until October. Powell didn't comment today but I would think he would start jawing the 10 year down if it hits 2%. That will affect mortgage rates, equity market, Spacs, ipo's, in short, I don't see the market sell off lasting much longer but this is merely a guess. We are already seeing some effect at 1.6. Once the Fed actually starts raising rates in 2024 then a huge sell off starting in 2022 or 2023 seems more plausible but maybe I'm way off. I guess we will see in the coming months. Maybe in 2022 or 2023 it hits 3 or 4% like Dudley thinks but I don't see how it hits that yield and stays there. How fast can United States GDP sustainably grow once the government starts raising rates and STOPS issuing multi trillion "stimulus" payments? My guess is the same it has since 2010 about 2% real which means a 3 or 4% 10 year seem high. "
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Has anyone done the math of what Buffett's average cost per share for the buybacks last year?
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BRKB & Chevron
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If the 10 year hits 2% by year end--what are some good names to own? And sectors? Banks are the most obvious, but curious if people on the board are already adding to names and sectors if this happens?
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If someone started an RIA 6 months ago and has an average return of 70-80% over the past 6 months, would would people on the board do to get more clients? Yes, the returns sounds completely implausible but they are accurate (funds managed are about $3 million). Does anyone on the board know of firms that will bring you clients in return for a cut of the profits? If so, any particular companies anyone can recommend? Oh, this is an RIA but there are also performance fees for qualified clients. Thanks!
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He said on his podcast a couple of weeks ago he isn't running. I think he just wanted to get some free press. He wants to have his name in the news. It is obvious. He wants to create the next Berkshire to help with inequality. I like Chamath and I think he will do well but I don't buy his argument about setting up a holding company will help with inequality. Only the middle and upper class buy equities. The poor won't be buying. Very few "poor" people bought Berkshire and made a lot of money. Sure someone making $100k a year will buy it but inequality isn't about people making $100k a year it is about the people making less than $15 an hour.
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Are Renaissance Technologies just trend followers?
wescobrk replied to RuleNumberOne's topic in General Discussion
Besides scale, what is the reason the fund for employees was up 76% last year and they had two funds that were down in the 30's? -
I bought some Churchill Capital around $18. I thought about selling some but didn't pull the trigger thinking the deal with Lucid will probably go through. Time will tell if this was a mistake not to sell.
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Hedge fund super basic question, let's say an account goes from $1 million to $2 million and the GP collects 20% of all profits. In this scenario the GP takes $200k so now the LP is left with $1.8 million. Is the high watermark to calculate future performance fees based on the $1.8 million or the $2 million before the fee? I'm sure different funds calculate both ways but do most funds calculate the high watermark before the fee? To put another way, the GP now has to earn a little over 10% just to get into the black to start earning the next fee? Thanks.
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Nothing news shattering here and this has been repeated a million times but his Apple trade is unbelievable. I think the 13F in mid Nov it made up $105 billion of Berkshire? Apple is up almost another 10% since then so now about $115 billion? With a market cap of $526b? So Apple makes up about 20% of Berkshire's market cap and over 50% of its equity holdings. Buffett has balls even in his 90's.
