Simba

Eric Nutall can tell you how long he's waited for this day. I think any oil bull was shot dead. Like 5x over. Testament to how unpredictable markets can be, and that cycles often repeat. We went from oil at negative dollars, to now > $100. Incredible.

Why do I feel that was the near-term / tradeable bottom for the next several weeks? Bottom ticked the opening bell, and sold within 15 minutes. Wish I would of held until 400PM. Shucks. Sometimes risk management system can be so tight that you do nothing, LOL. That's what happens when you get stopped out like 3-4x you just get fed up and do nothing., which is why I think today was the tradeable bottom ... sentiment is near capitulation (similar to March 2020 - hell I think it's even worse as retail traders have been absolutely slaughtered owning 50x P/S) I say tradable, because this inflation / interest rate thing is going to haunt the market for the next 3-12 months... I personally would love a double bottom, or even a crack below 4000 on the S&P (3970) as a giant headfake, before we rally to ATH again .. wishful thinking if March 2020 is any direction of how markets function, bottoms happen really really fast.. like TODAY fast. QQQ +7% off daily lows ARKK +14% off daily lows SPY +4% off daily lows

I think volatility stays elevated, as there are way too many risks over the next 6-12 months (interest rates, inflation, covid). I personally am long but I am very glad the stock market is letting some air out. Amazing how a lot of names have grown revenue since 2020, and are cheaper in share price (and multiple) than 2020. Looking forward to the next several years of investing, there should be some real alpha opportunities. Glad the only way to make money is not buying ARKK, that retail mania is finally popping, that buying profitless Shitco's at 100x P/S is not a way to wealth, and have to thank the market for doing what it does best.

Happy Holidays, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

Anyone have thoughts on Activision?

Just not seeing any pound the table buys in terms of the high-quality / Buffet type of buys. Honestly the sell off at the beginning of the year was more exciting (in hindsight), you had quality names like Costco down almost 20%, now it's all the non-profitable companies who are down 50% but they are so hard to value so who really knows. Tough trading environment. Doesn't help that it feels a lot like Q42018 in the sense there's no liquidity. Names like PTON and ROKU (I saw a -10% print) getting smoked. While it feels like Q42018, it really isn't, because quality names like Costco is still up +49% YTD, Microsoft is +53% YTD.

This sell-off seems to be concentrated in the non-profitable companies. My own take, is these companies overshot and are coming back down to reality. However, because many are not profitable, they are not necessarily "SCREAMING BUYS, BTFD, ITS RAINING GOLD". I do think within the pile they will be some real winners. Secondly, this market has been supported by the growth of names like Apple and Microsoft. We've never had many companies at several trillion dollar market caps, so I wonder what type of risk this brings to the market (if any?). Certainly a rug pull in the mega cap names, could lead to greater sell offs. Thirdly, I think there are some real risks to the market in terms of inflation (i) inflation affecting earnings / margins going forward (ii) rate hikes depressing valuations My own personal take is the market seems tired. Tech got a uplift initially in 2020 and than reopening plays got boosted with vaccine news, however it seems like the market is finally starting to take valuation seriously. For example, $AMC lowest since Reddit decided to Meme it in Jun/21. I think a 5% return for 2022 with 5% inflation would piss off a lot of people (0% real return), which is why my prediction for 2022 is exactly that (0-5% real return on equities). I think a negative return for 2022 with high inflation is also in the cards, and wouldn't write it off. Are we entering a different regime than 2009-2020 ? I certainly think so. For one valuations post GFC were at record lows. Post Covid, valuations are at highs.

Rarely do stocks get 2008 levels cheap though.... A lot of these names went up on pure froth however (pure multiple expansion). I do expect a huge bounce at some point, it's hard to say where the multiple steadies out in the end. SaaS is not cheap enough, but with rates at 1-2%, a bottom can very likely happen with these stocks trading at low yields relative to treasuries. Personally surprised by the pace of these movements... brutal

Of the bunch, PYPL is certainly on that list of interest, especially relative to good quality tech companies producing cash flow. I do think that move to 300 was a bit frothy for my liking.

I want to buy some of these WFH names.. but refraining myself.. will be on sidelines until dust further settles.

Some of these growth companies have been completely decimated. Names like $PTON come to mind.

Crypto weekly by JP Morgan? Can't wait for this bubble to pop.

There's a reason podcast on 'We Study Billionaires' and there was a crypto guru talking up bitcoin/crypto, and he sounded like classical person who is caught up in the euphoria / market sentiment, and not about the fundamentals. I think this is a good example of the market sentiment on this topic. I think crypto needs to get further entrenched in the economy, and it's probably more like 1995 rather than 1999 / 2000. And even then, if crypto gets widespread adoption, it will turn out it won't be a bubble after all. I predict another 4-5 years of this, and IMO, you need to see some really really really stupid shit over the coming years. I don't think were there yet. I want to see books called "Bitcoin $1M" I want to see more Crypto ETFs I want to see more corporations buying Crypto I want to see more derivatives of Shibu's and Doges I want to see CME sell Shibu Inu Futures etc...

Gold as an investment asset from a retail point of view is inevitably going to displaced by crypto IMO. For central banks and institutions, they are likely to continue allocating for the next several decades.

Mix of corporate bonds (1-5 year) and high yield bonds.

Relax. Just buy some digital rocks using ETH for $2M, eat some popcorn at AMC and play video games in at Gamestop 2021 Investing in a nutshell .

I spend 2 minutes googling the "Journal of Infection", and could not find a Wikipedia page. Furthermore, both the actual website and study look like it was made in MS Paint in 1993 I was going to read the study, but realized I don't need to. I've read enough data that supports the vaccine. showPdf (journalofinfection.com) Home Page: Journal of Infection

Hmm ya certainly looks interesting, especially with the price trading close to $20.00

It's 6-month emergency fund (through the March 2020 crash I realized I needed a minimum cash and couldn't tolerate volatility of 100% equities) + some cash for a down payment for RE in the next 12 months. The 6-month emergency fund, I'm OK yielding savings account yield (e.g. 1%). I do realize cash has been a drag on investment returns especially with the SPX approaching 4400. I'm willing to sell the RE downpayment portion at a -10% loss if need be. I also figure I could always apply for margin if the market did turn south and needed to sell for the RE Downpayment. I know they say don't invest your down payment, but it's such a drag on returns. Which is why I'm looking for lower volatility / lower return scenarios.

I have some bond investment allocation, but not sure how to properly invest this amount. - I can put this amount in a corporate bond fund, but it does not earn much yield. - I can put this amount in a savings account, but now it's even worse. - I can allocate this to equities, but then this defeats the purpose. Thus far, I've allocated a bit to high yield bonds, but obviously this is like 10% of my bond allocation as it has equity like volatility in a downturn (otherwise would put more). Thoughts?

Nice Analysis!! Very clear.

Anyone have a link to Liberty's newsletter on this? I create a folder for each stock, and just stick everything in there. Not the most organized but I know it's all there.

Let's assume - Bitcoin replaces the dollar What price is bitcoin at these levels? Is it near the same market cap as US Dollar in circulation? Wouldn't the government start regulating it at that time. Won't this all end badly, with the government coming in and banning / taxing the shit out of bitcoin?

The $XRT is up 105%+ since the Feb2020 highs, while the Nasdaq 100 is only up +38% (where retail was closed, and technology was massively adopted). How did the retail ETF crush the QQQ? Even Guess Jeans is +28% from pre-Covid levels. Cheesecake factory +46% from pre-covid highs. Pull up charts of Abercrombie, Gap, and the broader retail ETF, XRT, and you kind of scratch your head. What is going on? Can retail companies really be worth 2x more than they were worth in Feb 2020? This is wacky if you ask me. Some of the composition of the index (auto retailers -18% of index and eRetailers - 18% of index) had a tailwind, but the rest? This is almost like JP Morgan reaching pre-GFC high before names that werent as much affected by GFC in 2010 period.

Thanks - this was good - been a while I heard a good podcast.