changegonnacome

These two posts are as extreme as the lunatics running around Manhattan with Hamas flags - the two extreme sides of the same extremist coin. I'm afraid to say that you both seem to have been radicalized yourselfs........just on the opposite side of the spectrum. What you've both described above is exactly the mental trickery used by regimes engaged in genocidal acts....it completely abstracts away any responsibility for military costs inflicted on non-combatants...."they brought this on themselves" "they are not ordinary civilians".... Israel had the right and the responsibility to defend itself post-Oct 7th.....it also had the right and duty to rescue its hostages...I cheered on every military success they had defeating hamas......but that right is not unlimited....maybe we can agree that one hostage freed in exchange for a million dead women and children breaks some ethical or moral code? As Israel has scaled into this conflict, as the body count of children has risen, as human suffering has risen, as the cities have been levelled and then levelled again and the military objectives/wins/upside have been less clear and less frequent as time as gone on (relative to the deaths/casualties)......this Israeli government has crossed some hard to define line between a just war with balanced offensive and defensive objectives....into something else......when you fight monsters you need to be careful not to become a monster yourself. The US should do everything in its power to force Nentahyou to go to his people for an election....its time for the Israeli people to decide what happens next in Gaza and not Bibi and a cobbled together ragtag political coalition put together pre-Oct 7th to keep Bibi out of prison.

You think? I've got an asset class for you: - that over long periods is almost guaranteed to go up by a minimum of the rate of inflation (the story of inflation is policy makers trying to keep it at 2% but averaged due to spikes (like 2021) out its more like ~3%) - now that 3% almost guaranteed nominal return can be financed (via FHA loans with only 3% money down) - that's right you can have a leverage ratio of 33.3 to 1 on an asset returning ~3% p/a with non-callable fixed rate debt that can be refinanced at any time of YOUR choosing into a lower rate/term instrument. - thats a return on equity of 100% with a financing vehicle deeply skewed in your favor - the cost to hold this 'trade' cause you have to live somewhere either rented or owned - is the delta between what you would pay in rent vs. this mortgage...in lots of cases its really not that much different.... - then tax system shows up - the tax system is setup (via mortgage interest relief) to try and squeeze this holding cost 'rent-own' delta down further - the tax system is setup (via home sales tax exclusion) to ensure any gains on sale from holding an owned principal home aren't taxed As I say to lots of people playing this rent/buy game........what the hell are you waiting for exactly?!

The more likely path (one Buffet is priming BRK for) is the Fed bails out the fiscal via yield curve control…..inflation up, yields down/suppressed , dollar down….fiscal dominance I think is the nomenclature. In that world you’d want to be owning hard assets financed to the hilt. I can’t think of a scenario (outside insane Japanese level property bubbles) where well located property financed conservatively that you can live isn’t a good idea for 99% of peeps….the US Gov is shorting the dollar….you should be to!

Yep the most dangerous person a company can hire or a country can't put into power.....is high intelligence, high energy & low integrity individual......you can't believe the damage a person like that can do.

Trump has finally met his match in terms of being an online troll/bully We are now at a very interesting juncture.......in a democracy you can speak up as Elon is doing......in a different system (China/Russia) you can't cause the system crushes you......we are about to find out what system we have under Captain Chaos...... If you were pro-Elon, anti-woke and for Donald.....it was kinda fine by you to watch him bully Harvard via complete abuse of power.....if you were anti-law firms....it was ok to watch him shake them down via security clearance....hope its OK too when Trump re-opens the SEC and NHTSA investigations he put on ice for Elon, cancels NASA & starlink contracts. Reminds me a bit of the below: First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a trade unionist. Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew. Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me. —Martin Niemöller Whoever is pulling a fast one in a true liberal democracy...be it democrat, republican, trillionaire or billionaire....you keep a democracy by killing that type of behaviour in the crib....before its too late speak up.

the best kind

and now the threats start - Now might be a good time for ActBlue to start texting and emailing Elon for some donations

Just a reminder to peeps who think Trump is some negotiating genius and art of the deal guru : this is the first actual call Trump has had with Xi about trade/tariffs. Which is funny, considering he claimed to have had tariff-related calls with Xi a couple of months ago and over the space of a couple of weeks. I mean—what better way to tell your negotiating adversary you’re scared than to fake contact with him to your domestic media/audience. Hilarious.

ha ha I'll try to be fair to him......he's a fiscal hawk who got taken for ride, like so many before him, by a fake tan covered charlaton.

Trump derangement syndrome out of control - stop being a crybaby Elon....let me guess what's next....trans-robots

This guy on drugs - I dont what you peeps are smoking....this is not what a drug addict looks like.

The aftermath - facts not feelings....thought this was the pro-business Taco, sorry I mean President? https://insight.factset.com/analysts-making-larger-cuts-than-average-to-eps-estimates-for-sp-500-companies-for-q2-1?utm_source=Direct&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=FO-05-30-2025&utm_content=httpsinsightfactsetcomanalystsmakinglargercutsthanaveragetoepsestimatesforsp500companiesforq21 Analysts Making Larger Cuts Than Average to EPS Estimates for S&P 500 Companies for Q2 Earnings By John Butters | May 30, 2025 Given concerns in the market about inflation and tariffs, have analysts lowered EPS estimates more than normal for S&P 500 companies for the second quarter? The answer is yes. During the months of April and May, analysts lowered EPS estimates by a larger margin than average. The Q2 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the median EPS estimates for Q2 for all the companies in the index) decreased by 4.0% (to $62.91 from $65.55) from March 31 to May 29. In a typical quarter, analysts usually reduce earnings estimates during the first two months of a quarter. During the past five years (20 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first two months of a quarter has been 2.6%. During the past ten years, (40 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first two months of a quarter has been 2.5%. During the past fifteen years, (60 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first two months of a quarter has also been 2.5%. During the past 20 years (80 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first two months of a quarter has been 3.1%. Thus, the decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate recorded during the first two months of the second quarter was larger than the 5-year average, the 10-year average, the 15-year average, and the 20-year average.

Luckily this buffon.....was able to spot another buffon in full flight......and I've got the receipts to prove it... APRIL 9TH - "Anyway IMO the next dumb Trump thing you can make money on is the inevitable China reversal - the administration might talk about trade asymmetry between the US-China and how it will hurt them more than the US.....but what they wont talk about is something a little more unquantifiable and that's pain tolerance......like we know the story.... the Chinese are over there working 9-9-6 & are saving I dunno 35% of their income.....these people know how to defer gratification & take some lumps....state surveillance & propaganda rammed down their throats will sure help keep the business community and society in-line through some bumps..........conversely Joe Sixpack has a negative savings rate of minus 2%, does 1.5hrs of real work a day for the three days a week he's in the office and spends the rest of the time complaining about how busy work is. Who's gonna crack first do you think when the going gets tough and inevitable job loses start rolling in on both sides?" April 10th "Read this and a few other stories from American SME's with single sourcing from China....its brutal whats going to happen to them.......if something cant continue it wont. A China pause is simply inevitable.......I'm starting to get positioned for it."

Yep nice way to put it - I'll give him some credit as I try to do in this discussions......he has a way of changing the conversation and shifting the overton window in DC......we saw that from his first term......IMO his real positive historical legacy is that he'll be remembered as the President that rightly rang the alarm bell on China back in the late 2010's...but exactly as per the above....he's a sometimes good idea guy but all buffoon when it comes to execution. It's a pity as I've said in other threads I'd like to see parts of his agenda enacted.

Its quite funny to watch - and listen I feel bad for old Captain Chaos...his instincts on a subset of this trade stuff is exactly right....the execution is what you'd expect from an 80yr old guy who's surrounded himself with a bunch of C-players at best....some would argue Z-players......'Ron Vara' anyone? So far its a masterclass in poor choices and chaos. From the Liberation Day math debacle itself which out the gates marked this out as an exercise with little credibility (the figures we're so outlandish they screamed puffery & bluffing to counterparties!)......to the use of obscure interpretations of IEEPA that we're almost sure to get knocked back in the courts. It's really an example how it isn't the deep state this time getting in the way of Trump's agenda but rather the orange man in the mirror. Its quite sometime since a President has held this much sway over the GOP caucus. It was a strategic mistake not to bring bring at least some semblance of GOP congressional support into a trade war most especially with China (which is what matters the most here). Let's be clear a President of democratic country with rule of law acting unilaterally (when he really can't) is like bringing a knife to a gun fight against an authoritarian dictatorship across the table - it's no surprise that he's getting the runaround from two authoritarian socialist/communist dictators right now......Putin & Xi. They have little of the complex stakeholder enviorment a democratic has to deal with. His mistake was not to consolidate as much congressional consensus as was politically possible before firing the first bullet of this trade war against China......going it alone & acting unilaterally only confirmed the puffery & bluffery inherent in liberation day. China masterfully ran down the clock, did a Geneva chinwag knowing full well I'm sure the US court decisions blocking his moves we're coming....and if that didn't come SME constituents of senators and congressman would start to feel the China pain and start lobbying for relief shattering the consensus he never built anyway, The recent Steve Eisman podcasts which are worth a listen....has a Lenin quote I heard years ago but I think is very interesting in the context of the trade war & even Russia/Ukraine conflict. “The Capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them.” ― Vladimir Ilich Lenin Trump.....in his own words....."doesn't have the cards"......the same insanity that sees Congress year after year vote the US closer to a debt spiral (because short term pain is unacceptable to their constituents).......is the same Congress that when push comes to shove will not allow Trump the negotiating latitude to do what he needs to do against China. I said it from the get go - Trump's radicalism - his everything, all at once re-industrialization gambit - was too ambitious, too broad.......his vein glory in trying to get this done during his Presidency - has doomed it to failure.....a more wise President would have seen it as an 8 or 12yr project that JD would have carried through to completion. Trump of course couldn't countenance someone else doing a victory lap and not him and as a result he's made a dogs dinner of what is, in essence, a good idea.

The instinct among his supporters is to look away—cognitive dissonance is painful, especially for those who feel an endowment effect toward the candidates they've voted into power. But it's important to remain rational about what's occurring here. It is not hyperbole to say that the grift orchestrated by Trump Inc. during this presidency is unprecedented, particularly in its sheer scale. By some accounts, the Trump family has amassed an additional $700 million in wealth since Election Day, this $700m number I should note are realized gains tied to the monetization of the presidency. The unrealized gains are much larger but can be thought of as ephemeral until monetized. I'd suggest just sitting with this hour long podcast/YouTube clip from Ezra Klein if your Trump supporter. Ezra/NY Time may be a left leaning or straight out left news organisation.....but I know this space well enough to consider myself expert enough to know what is liberal cry-babying and what is factual and conceptually accurate....this podcast captures very well and factually with only small emotional detours in partisanship what is happening. It is shameful....and without precedent.....whataboutism doesn't work here.....no politician or President in United States political history has come close to pulling down $700m of realized gains in less than year since being elected President. Nobody. We've had scuzz and shadiness in the past (Hunter etc.) but the scale here puts this enterprise in a new category entirely of moral and ethical norm violations. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-growing-scandal-of-%24trump/id1548604447?i=1000710254584

100%…..so much political theatre occurring right now. “Promises made, PR event delivered “

Apologies there is no trade deal with the UK. What you saw in the oval office being signed and touted as a trade deal is at best an agreement in principle, a memorandum of understanding or political commitment document. Trade deals are all encompassing and legally binding. If you saw one printed out it would look like the most giant book you ever saw. They take years to negotiate to get to a document that both sides can sign and call a trade deal. The UK & USA have been negotiating a trade deal since May 2020 and no trade deal has been signed. The most important thing with any administration but especially the Trump one is not to confuse political theatre & PR events for something that they aren't. Many times they represent genuine progress on an issue but they often misrepresent progress as completion. The political 'trick' being perpetuated relies on the reality that politicians know well - attentions spans are short, folks read headlines not details and seldom if ever do voters circle back to prior announcements to see if what was touted actually occured.

Elon Musk says Trump’s spending bill undermines the work DOGE has been doing https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/28/elon-musk-says-trumps-spending-bill-undermines-the-work-doge-has-been-doing.html Kudos to Elon....he's 100% right.....and I'd imagine the truth is dawning on him......Trump used him & the DOGE theatre to create the illusion of fiscal prudence....while doing the exact opposite.

Trump Media Raises Money to Buy $2.5 Billion in Bitcoin- https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/27/business/trump-media-bitcoin.html High growth social media dreams platform officially canceled.......let's set the controls for the heart of the crypto sun says Devon Nunes! Trump will most certainly have one legacy when he leaves office. He'll be the President that MADE the most money in history for himself during his time in the WH while simultaneously being the President that LOST investors the most money in history on investments tied to him while in office. Lets see. I'm certain on the first part and highly confident on the second.

If the former Prime Minister of Israel was a foreign student at Colombia right now his visa would be revoked & he'd be deported for anti-semitism. Wild times. "Enough Is Enough. Israel Is Committing War Crimes" https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2025-05-27/ty-article-opinion/.premium/enough-is-enough-israel-is-committing-war-crimes/00000197-0dd6-df85-a197-0ff64a5c0000

Yep - think Dalio talks about how 'we are with each other' as an important component of the stability that underpins democracies and the rule of law........we are slowly sliding towards a dangerous place....when discourse slides down to "suck it" or as @cubsfan says you start calling your political opponents nazis on a regular basis you either come back from it or things start to fall apart.

I dont care what party your from - I dont care if your red or blue - in a civil advanced democracy a member of cabinet should not be dropping "Suck it" on to twitter about anything. Period. Full stop. That this post is still up 19hrs after it was published says alot about her and alot about her boss.

Let me say some nice things about Donald - - he's done a great job regarding oct 7 hostgages - if Biden was in power still I'm almost certain Bibi would have launched an attempted nuclear busting attack on Iran and pulled the US into a proper war in the Middle East. Bibi had zero respect for feeble Biden and ran rings around him. Trump is balls enough to stand up to Bibi....and unpredictable enough that Bibi/Israel gov might wonder one day if Trump would do to Bibi what he's done to Zelensky.....i.e. cut Israel off financially and publicly. Trump is keeping the war hawks in Israel in check, I've no doubt about that...and Israel and the world is better off for it. - he's done a masterful job on controlling illegal immigration which was a huge problem for low income workers and exacerbated the housing/homelessness problem in major US cities. Some of what I'd call PR stunts (El Salvador jail etc.) while over the top...have, Im certain, played a really important part in getting the message across to those thinking about travelling illegally to the USA from South America....they are performative and theatrical....but they've got the message across that the USA means business and is closed to illegals and the flow has just dropped of a cliff. PR & real deterrents work. - the deregulation agenda is deeply deeply important - a country that can't get anything done, is itself done over time.....and Trump can hopefully drive this deeply important work - $150bn isnt $2 trillion......but you mind the cents and the dollars will look after themselves over time.....good that some momentum has been created around government wasteful spending and it might stop the incremental bureaucratic/poltician from writing a dumb cheque in the future - one can quibble with the approach/tactics.....but the Ukraine-Russia conflict had a decade (s) long conflict written all over it.....maybe it still does.....but Trumps unconventional approach could possibly bring an end to a seemingly intractable conflict and lots lives will be saved because of it. He's attempting to be an unconventional catalyst for change and his overarching aim is noble. - Trump is 100% right that the US should be producing critical products at home (vaccines, steel, automotive, rare earths etc.).....MBA supply chain optimizations be damned....you need to have a resilient economy to have a great economy......a great economy without any resiliency as we found out in COVID is an imposter. Any other President would kick the can down the road on this problem, say alot of words and drag their feet on it....Trump appears to be trying to actually get this US vulnerability solved in the near term....not some medium term bs target that never gets done.