Xerxes

Genocide ? where does that comes from I thought we were friends. We were exchanging jokes about Trudeau just a moment ago. Now I am put on spot and required to take sides on this genocide discussion. good lord.

is that a re-post of yesterday. Why is it surprising that Hamas inflates numbers. Hamas does make up a lot of stuff. directionally though, does it matter ?

there is also Katie Wood space ETF that has Spacex In it. but why bother with Baron, Wood and the likes for a puny uncivilized 5% exposure of something that one really want but requires one to have 95% of the stuff that we either don’t want, don’t need, but convince ourselves to want for the sake of 5% better to go with RocketLab suggestion above. That said, I find it interesting that no comment has been made to the fact that most of the potential value of SpaceX is in Starlink. And the latter has a far likelihood of an IPO (rumours and filings over the years) than the rocket business and the holding company. In fact, the SpaceX and Starlink are like BN and BAM.

Barron’ 2025 Top Ten picks

2024 was not a good year for Barron’ top 10 picks https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/barrons-streetwise/id1504250328?i=1000680310325

Russian column withdrawing ... to Tartus i think

https://apple.news/A3ItqWil7SDy_wAcRc7g-LA Good read. From Washington Post.

yeap. La Belle Province.

@mcliu which part of Canada are you from ? if you are ok to reveal that

100% And pay our NATO bills. it ain’t free.

I have not seen anything first hand. Then again I live the leafy suburban life. And not much happens around me. That said the one incident that was recent downtown was this lady whose family operated a Second Cup coffeeshop in the Jewish General Hospital. She was seen doing the Nazi salute during a protest and saying idiotic things like Final Solution. She was recognized on camera and her family got their franchise pulled by Second Cup. Montreal historically had a leftist, anarchist tilt to it. Nothing to do with Trudeau nor the Middle East conflict. Just that anti-war protest overtime attracts these anarchists. On Trudeau, he needs to go. It is high time. I would want a conservative government. That said I also don’t need a prime minister (the current conservative Opposition who is jockeying for the job) whose only foreign policy slogan is “we must stand with Israel”. As if of all the issues that exist in the world, he needs to go out of his way to highlight that one. I need a prime minister who has balls and stand for what is right and one that has conservative mindset. And not some dummy who is going to repeat Bibi’ slogan.

and that is something that even Fairfax India does not have. An asset manager play for third party funds to manage.

The Russians are doing the same thing I do with my car on a heavy snow day, when I have to move it a bit further. If not the snowplow rebellious crew may make good on their threat to tow my car if left there.

the industry fell on sympathy for FFH not making it into the index.

thanks John. I think though the word “terrorist” was not used on Monday. While it was used just few days ago. Much like the West, Kremlin makes great strategic use of the word.

I don’t think there is a relation between Turkey’ control of access to the Black Sea and the port itself. The port is Russia’ only major port in “war waters”. and needs to keep it and will likely keep it. I find it, highly unlikely that Turkey will push for the new regime in Damascus to push out the Russians. That would be too big of step change between Moscow and Ankara. the winner needs to leave something on the table for the other side. Edit: it is not like there is a “land access” from Russia to the port in Syria, in which case it is a “bypass” to the Strait of Bosporus. The two are independent.

I would disagree. it took 13 years for Assad to fall. The end may have came fast, but that doesn’t take away 13 years of staying put (granted w/ help) and surviving. For Egypt under Mubarak and Iran under the Shah, its closest ally (Obama and Carter, respectively) just step aside and let them fall. Once that happened they lost heart. The same way Moscow and Tehran just stepped aside in 2024 for Assad, and he lost heart. There are no rules to these things. Libya’ Qaddafi was ruled like herd with himself as Shepherd and once he fell. It collapsed easily as there were no strong state like institutions behind the man. In case of today’ Iran and Russia, I think power is institutionalize. There are a lot powerbrokers, and entrenched interests. I think what you are describing is more possible with North Korea. With government that has leader with a strong cult of personality. I don’t know if I am making sense in how I am describing.

https://apple.news/A2kn1BLAoRUGaZhTqBwbZtQ Just read this one. pretty good read from WSJ.

“Can a butterfly flapping its wing in Amazon forest cause a hurricane in the Pacific” Sinwar successfully flapped his wings. The dominos brought down Damascus elsewhere. Turkey is interesting. Just like Iran was a net beneficiary of 2003 invasion of Iraq, the 2011 Arab uprising, the Saudi war in Yemen … at the expense of others Now turkey is the net beneficiary of the Ukraine war and the near east conflict with Israel-Palestine. Turkey was able to score two major gains just in two years: Armenia and now Syria; at the expense of Iranians and Russians. Not to mention flexing its power through the control of the passage to Black Sea for military vessels. It is party time in Constantinople this Christmas. If it was being celebrated.

Putting aside the regional powers and the shifting sands and ebbs and flows in terms of their influence, the net winner could be the Syrian people, and their chance at new beginning, IF (big if) their revolution doesn’t get hijacked by “hardliners” factions within the rebel coalition.

Just a guess. No reporting. It is the bill that needs to be paid to get Moscow non-involvement. As soon as Aleppo fell, the die was cast. No longer the question of “if” rather “when”, and the “when” came really fast for Damascus. and for practical reasons, given who are the rebels’s imperial masters are, focus will be undoubtedly be eastward, against the autonomous Kurdish region.

And just a few letters later the large FX position is largely closed out.

The fall of Assad dynasty is directly linked to Hezbollah pulling its forces out of Syria. No doubt about it. But while Assad was ever anything close to ideal, it was a secular state, much like Saddam was a secular state in Iraq. The new power taking over in Damascus, will an islamist one, note: their counterpart in Kabul are already extending congratulations. Consequence: Iran loses the "bridge" between it and its allies in the South of Lebanon. Israel will just trade a "institutional" enemy that it knew well with a "revolutionary" one that knows less well. Russia will keep its naval base, but loose its influence in Damascus. Turkey will be the de facto imperial winner here, displacing Moscow and Tehran

Finished reading Tai-Pan. Definitely not in par with Shogun, but very enjoyable as it shows settlers, traders trying to balance foreign interest, commercial interest, the Crown, the Manchu emperors and the Chinese secret societies, in the bid to build a up a colony that would become Hong Kong. Will start reading Gai-Jin in 2025, which although is the last book James Clavell wrote, it is chronology right after Tai-Pan, that takes the story back to Japan and it involves the trading companies of Hong Kong and their commercial interests that were presented in Tai-Pan. Hulu/Disney are confirmed to be developing Seasons 2 and 3 of Shogun. I do wonder what is exactly their scope of work and if they will fast forwarding to Gai-Jin era. According to Wiki: Four of the six books—Tai-Pan, Gai-Jin, Noble House, and Whirlwind—follow the dealings of the great trading company Struan's, the Noble House of Asia (based on Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited), its founder Dirk Struan, and his various descendants. Gai-Jin provides the major link between the Shōgun and Struan's storylines.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crl3ndxglwxo.amp There has been a plethora of recent articles reminiscing the “lost opportunity” of Ukraine giving up its nuclear arsenal. Ukraine was certainly played with the so-called guarantees in exchange for removing the nuclear weapons. No question about it. Question remains however, in my view, if Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan, were actually the heir to that arsenal. It is not like that had command and control. Yet I will also add there were a large number of Soviet leaders who were Ukrainian or of Ukrainian origin. That makes in my view Ukraine equal to Belarus and Russia and above other Soviet states. The support that Ukraine provided to the Soviet cause is immeasurable, both being an engineering Center of excellence (Antonov), a breeding ground for military and political leaders as well as being the breadbasket feeding the empire. But does all these make, Ukraine, the legitimate heir to the Soviet nuclear arsenal, just by virtue of having a significant part of the arsenal physically located there ? What do board member think Not completely unrelated, I recall reading that the gas pipelines in Armenia are owned by the Russian State. Another legacy of the rapid collapse of the Soviet Union and freezing of status quo.