D33pV4lue

Considering it is a private company that operates in the gaming industry I would expect them to hold their cards close to the vest. The best bet would be public comments from gaming partners or employees of partners involved in bookmaking. They presented at the Global Gaming EXPO in October you might be able to find the presentation. Otherwise, I would read up on bookmaking and how bets are priced. There are a only few originators and the rest are copy cats. Once you understand that there isn't much else to know.

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/FLU:AV

Quiet the first post lol... I don't use TA for individual stocks or the basis for any investment decisions but I do think there is value in TA of the markets for helping to determine opportunities to buy. I have a TA that I've followed for many years. Start every morning with it takes me 5 minutes. Helps to form a view of the market, sectors I may want to look at, when I might have a buying opportunity etc... Side note: Renaissance operates more like a casino than anything else. They found correlations between the market and seemingly unrelated events, like if it was raining on a Friday the market would close down. Noone will be able to replicate that and if/when someone does the opportunity will be gone.

There is so much corruption in horse racing (PEDS, buzzers, other tactics). I would never devote any amount of time to trying to figure it out. I have my one day at the track every year in Toga and that's good enough for me. But if this stuff does interest you I suggest listening to this podcast episode. It will probably make you rethink trying to create any sort of models.

https://acquirersmultiple.com/2023/03/charles-munger-theres-nothing-mysterious-about-great-investing/

If you held 10 securities in an equally-weighted portfolio worth $1,000. You believe those securities have a 55% chance to double and a 45% chance to go bankrupt in one year. The expected value from investing in the portfolio is $100 or a 10% return. Now if you came across an opportunity that had an 80% chance to double and a 20% chance to go bankrupt how much of your portfolio would you invest in that opportunity? This is an extreme example but given the investment options, no one should add the new security at the same weight as the other investments. The caveat is that investors regularly overestimate their edge. What they thought was an 80% probability might only be 60% and resulted in more risk than anticipated.

This really highlights the fiction of GAAP accounting balance sheets for financial institutions. Non-Interest Bearing deposits are extremely valuable given the rate environment but look no different than CDs yielding 2.5% and the issues with AFS/HTM securities are well documented. Would argue that looking at Book Value and Tangible Book Value to identify "cheap" securities only leads to negative selection. Furthermore, banks are punished for growing equity beyond what is required for regulatory capital, which is why you see an increase in dividends and share buybacks.

I am with you in this line of thinking. I think the probability of a recession being avoided or the recession being very mild is being underestimated. The contrarian in me has been brainstorming possible paths. One idea I keep coming back to is the fed keeping interest rates where they are once they think they have "defeated" inflation for an extended period of time. Everyone seems to think they will start to cut immedietly.

There is no one size fits all for position sizing. Risk tolerance, ability to take risk, goals in investing, and confidence in your analysis all play a part. When I first started investing I believed in being concentrated and I figured being fully invested would look like 10 positions at 10%. Problem is when you first start investing If you are maxing out IRA contributions you are doubling your account in year 2, 50% year 3, etc... and a position you hold when you make contributions might not always be a buy when you have cash available. I ended up owning 3 stocks up until I had 50k and I would have been comfortable with 1. I'm now fully invested owning 5 names. This works for me because I have a high risk tolerance, high ability to to take risk, and my goals are to outperform the market, which can be done by being different and taking concentrated positions. That being said what works for me might not work for you or anyone else. Position sizing is more of an artwork than a science IMO. I think the most important thing is that you are comfortable. If your losing sleep over a large position because it is declining than the position is too big.

My friend group is really into board games as well. Outside of Catan and Ticket to Ride one of our favorites is Coup. Throw Throw Burrito, Secret Hitler, and Wingspan are a few others. We actually found Coup on Kickstarter and has actually been a very good source for new board games.

I got on the mailing list as an interested party some time ago. CRS - As spek pointed out OTC's are going to have short annuals because of the lack of disclosures I don't think short necessarily means easier. If you want practice with valuations/financials you should pick a few different companies go back and read old 10-ks come up with a valuation then see how your analysis played out. From there you can look for opportunities in the market.

Full Annual Report.pdf Not an endorsement but this one is short. I have shorter ones but they are in a 4-10 page booklet so its not easy to scan. Is this for a teaching lesson or investment ideas?

What makes you think twitter can successfully monitize their platform? By succesfully I mean as efficient and profitable as Google and FB. SNAP is interesting in this space... suprisingly they are best at driving app downloads but the ability of FB to copy all of their inovative features scares me off.

I've been watching Dopesick on Hulu and the new season of Succession. Highly recommend Dopesick.

My lease ended May 2021. I stayed all through the pandemic and I had a bit of FOMO from my friends who left. They got Airbnbs for months in various different places. Figured this was my last chance to do it for myself before I got pulled back into the office. I went out to Colorado for 2 months and then was busy with weddings and birthday parties when we got back August 1st. Starting looking for an apartment August 14 and its been hell. Very little inventory. I've seen probably 30 apartments last 2 weeks and I'm picking from the scaps. Leasing agents at the buldings have said things are slow, not because noone wants to rent but because they only have a handful of places left. When I left prices were about 10-20% lower than pre covid levels depending on the neighborhood and 2 months free at most places was common. Now prices are back to or above pre-covid levels and most places are offering 0 concessions. They give the "we are paying for the broker fee so there are no concession" response and IMO that is BS. Especially if you are looking to sign a multi-year lease. Turn around is quick I saw 5 apartments last week that were only on the market for 24 hours. Can't wait for this nightmare to be over.....

Going to pose a question because I don't think it's been touched on. What is diversification? Assuming 100% equity portfolio to make things easy, is it owning 100 stocks @ 1% position size or no more than x% in an industry or style of stock (growth/value/momentum)? Take the current market environment right now. If you were given $100,000 today and it had to be fully invested by EOD where would you put it? If I don't want to invest in the FANGS at all-time highs and I think the only place to find value is in real estate and insurance so I put my money to work there am I not diversified? If my thesis/trade works out real estate and insurance outperform FANG did I even need to diversify? I know this is slightly different from position sizing but to put it another way, if you were going to allocate 10% of your portfolio to a specific sector why wouldn't you just want to own 10% of the highest quality most undervalued stock in the sector instead of the top 5-10 names within the sector? If you are a stock picker and are trying to beat the market diversification has its limits. There is only so much risk you can diversify before your portfolio turns into a closet index at which point you should just index. I run a concentrated portfolio but 1) I'm young and can take the risk 2) the companies I own I want to own for the next 10 years (unless something changes) and 3) managing position sizes with new contributions every year that adds a significant % to my portfolio is difficult. That's why I base my position sizes on what my portfolio will look like in 10 years not today. As my portfolio grows I expect the number of names to increase slightly but I don't ever plan on it going past 10 names. As an avid sports bettor, I don't use the kelly criterion and never have. I also don't think its application to position sizing is useful. When you gamble you know the risk and return before you place a bet. In the market you don't - you may have a target price before entering but lots of things happen and your target price can change during the time you are a shareholder.

Timely post as I was just reviewing 2020. On an investing front, I was raising cash in my PA end of January and entered the lows holding about 40% cash and 5 positions. I was prepared for a pullback but not expecting what happened. I pitched 4 names near the lows all of which the big guy above failed to make a decision on and locked me out from buying in PA. I was able to deploy half my cash in other ideas but these 4 were on my buy list leading up and have all had great returns since. I was not expecting a rebound like we had and thought that we would chop near the lows for some time at which point I would be able to get into those names but it didn't work out that way and I rode 2020 with 20% cash. The biggest lesson I learned - if you see value take it don't worry about getting the best price your not going to time the bottom nor the top. Second, everything happens fast the timeline to recognize value and act has become incredibly short. Idk if it has to do with the proliferation of ETFs and passive investors but it seems to me that when stocks get cheap they all get cheap at the same time. That makes it a bit overwhelming and can lead to distractions. The best solution is to know the stocks that you want to buy in a pullback and at what price there is not enough time to do your research during the downdraft. Control what you can control. I was pounding the table but wasn't given a clear yes or no on the investment decision and didn't want to buy first. Ethically it's the right thing to do, but in the rearview, he probably had no intention of acting on my pitches in the first place. When the S&P 500 was down 35% from the highs I was told I'm too bullish. Unfortunately, this isn't the first time something like this happened but an idea here or there happens for me it just happened to be almost half my portfolio. Lesson learned - i should get a new job.

Depends how deep into the weeds you want to get. Agree with Cigarbutt the CFA material is really good but it reads like a textbook so if thats not what your looking for you might get bored. Quick Read https://www.amazon.com/Interpretation-Financial-Statements-Benjamin-Graham/dp/0887309135 Deeper dive https://www.amazon.com/Financial-Shenanigans-Accounting-Gimmicks-Reports/dp/0071703071/ref=sr_1_2?dchild=1&gclid=CjwKCAiA9bmABhBbEiwASb35V1yBR2gkIYWHwu-9l_6iRuL7WaThJYZ-JzdA_dqITzn3h67qe1QschoCZM8QAvD_BwE&hvadid=241659046490&hvdev=c&hvlocphy=9067609&hvnetw=g&hvqmt=e&hvrand=3665366763512062860&hvtargid=kwd-131267602&hydadcr=21901_10170939&keywords=financial+shenanigans&qid=1611591057&sr=8-2&tag=googhydr-20

upload images upload Blue = DJIA Red(?) = SP500 Gold = Gold Silver = Silver I said I was going to leave this alone but the fact that you shared a graph of the price return of the Dow Jones and S&P as a comparison to Gold and Silver just blew my mind. The correct chart to share would be total return since as an owner of a company you benefit from dividends and buybacks. Also, my point was that people who say Gold is a hedge against inflation are wrong and as you will see below if you go back to 1980 and adjust for inflation Gold has a negative return! The following is the CAGR of Gold and DJAI Total return with dividends reinvested from dates shown to Present (11/25/2020) adjusted for inflation. BOLD = Gold return 01/01/2010 = 3.45% 10.85% 01/01/2005 = 7.89% 7.33%* 01/01/2000 = 7.43% 5.08%* 01/01/1995= 4.25% 8.49% 01/01/1990 = 2.88% 8.26% 01/01/1985 = 2.73% 9.41% 01/01/1980= -0.18% 9.12%

I tell most of my friends to keep 6-12 months in the bank and invest the rest of the index, buy on dips and pullbacks, and forget about it. I don't have an objection to managing family/friend's money but just like clients, you have to make sure that they understand what you are getting them into and set realistic expectations. Most of the questions have come from friends recently since the start of the pandemic and the market meltdown in February. The conversation usually starts with friends asking for me tips. I flip it and get a sense of what they are doing currently and what they own. Almost every single person has told me they are day trading Bio-Tech, jumping on momentum trades, and playing earnings. I then usually proceeded to tell them that I don't that and I invest for the long-term and what I do is pretty boring but is more about preserving and growing capital than short term trades. Most friends gloss over at this point as they think they are smarter and can make money easier doing what they have been doing the last 6 months. Market historic rebound, IMO, has given most people the impression that stocks only go up and that it's so easy you should just do it yourself, heck last week my barber was giving me stock tips. At the end of the day, I just try to get them to realize that what they are doing is risking buying stocks you see from someone online without doing any research rarely ends up well. I don't want to see them lose money but I do think the music stops at some point and people that are doing this will get hurt.

The short answer... Not all banks are created equally. Slightly longer answer.... JPM is materially different from Citi, just like BNYM is different from USB or BAC. They have different sources of revenue even if you were to just look at loans, the composition of loans varies across all big banks. During stressful economic times, certain loan exposures will keep banks insulated while others will struggle more. I won't speak for Buffet as he is a lot smarter than I am, but I don't think the relationship between Buffet's view on the Financial Services industry and his individual financial holdings are perfectly correlated. He has also held most of these banks for a very long time so his return on capital has been tremendous. He will realize large embedded capital gains if he were to sell out of all banks just because he didn't like the short term outlook of financials. I do think buffet believes that banks are long-term compounders so it may just be that if he wants to lower his exposure he sells his least favorite in the sector while maintaining the rest.

LOL! Agree. Gold miners are perennial destroyers of capital. Calling gold miners a value play might be the biggest oxymoron I've ever heard. Let's take a look back to the beginning of Covid how did that work out for the investors holding gold as a hedge? They took an even bigger beating than the market. But that's where your wrong D33pV4lue gold is a hedge against inflation. Then can someone show me a chart of equities index to inflation vs Gold indexed to inflation? Investing in gold is a fool's game why don't we just go out and buy some crypto? Not to say there arent times when trading miners isn't a good strategy, but as "long-term investors" it makes no sense. Sorry for the rant I will now mute myself from adding my 2 cents so as not to disturb the people in this thread that are actually interested in gold. BOL

I hear bitcoin is making a resurgence again too

Sorry I am a bit confused about what you are asking. I just used the number that you provided me in a very simple calculation of how to apply it. The point of churn is to determine on average how long a customer will stay with the company. If you sign up 100 people in year 1 with a 50% retention rate after the first year but a 10% churn after year 1 then you need to factor that into the equation. If revenue per customer increases/decreases (on an annual basis) with the # of years they stay on then you have to factor that in.

A for simple calculation of LTV you need the reciprocal of churn. So in this case, 17% means that on average each customer stays with Naked wines 5.88 years (1/.17). Average revenue is 197 per year so on average the LTV = 5.88*197= 1,158.82. Now you could go further and use a discount rate on the revenue and include gross margin or operating margin for total lifetime profit. For simplicity, let's say 6 years is the average customer lifespan. you would discount 197 each year. Sum= $925 year 1 = 197 year 2 = 168 year 3 = 156 year 4 = 144 year 5 = 134 year 6 = 124 does that help?