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D33pV4lue's Achievements


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  1. My lease ended May 2021. I stayed all through the pandemic and I had a bit of FOMO from my friends who left. They got Airbnbs for months in various different places. Figured this was my last chance to do it for myself before I got pulled back into the office. I went out to Colorado for 2 months and then was busy with weddings and birthday parties when we got back August 1st. Starting looking for an apartment August 14 and its been hell. Very little inventory. I've seen probably 30 apartments last 2 weeks and I'm picking from the scaps. Leasing agents at the buldings have said things are slow, not because noone wants to rent but because they only have a handful of places left. When I left prices were about 10-20% lower than pre covid levels depending on the neighborhood and 2 months free at most places was common. Now prices are back to or above pre-covid levels and most places are offering 0 concessions. They give the "we are paying for the broker fee so there are no concession" response and IMO that is BS. Especially if you are looking to sign a multi-year lease. Turn around is quick I saw 5 apartments last week that were only on the market for 24 hours. Can't wait for this nightmare to be over.....
  2. Going to pose a question because I don't think it's been touched on. What is diversification? Assuming 100% equity portfolio to make things easy, is it owning 100 stocks @ 1% position size or no more than x% in an industry or style of stock (growth/value/momentum)? Take the current market environment right now. If you were given $100,000 today and it had to be fully invested by EOD where would you put it? If I don't want to invest in the FANGS at all-time highs and I think the only place to find value is in real estate and insurance so I put my money to work there am I not diversified? If my thesis/trade works out real estate and insurance outperform FANG did I even need to diversify? I know this is slightly different from position sizing but to put it another way, if you were going to allocate 10% of your portfolio to a specific sector why wouldn't you just want to own 10% of the highest quality most undervalued stock in the sector instead of the top 5-10 names within the sector? If you are a stock picker and are trying to beat the market diversification has its limits. There is only so much risk you can diversify before your portfolio turns into a closet index at which point you should just index. I run a concentrated portfolio but 1) I'm young and can take the risk 2) the companies I own I want to own for the next 10 years (unless something changes) and 3) managing position sizes with new contributions every year that adds a significant % to my portfolio is difficult. That's why I base my position sizes on what my portfolio will look like in 10 years not today. As my portfolio grows I expect the number of names to increase slightly but I don't ever plan on it going past 10 names. As an avid sports bettor, I don't use the kelly criterion and never have. I also don't think its application to position sizing is useful. When you gamble you know the risk and return before you place a bet. In the market you don't - you may have a target price before entering but lots of things happen and your target price can change during the time you are a shareholder.
  3. Timely post as I was just reviewing 2020. On an investing front, I was raising cash in my PA end of January and entered the lows holding about 40% cash and 5 positions. I was prepared for a pullback but not expecting what happened. I pitched 4 names near the lows all of which the big guy above failed to make a decision on and locked me out from buying in PA. I was able to deploy half my cash in other ideas but these 4 were on my buy list leading up and have all had great returns since. I was not expecting a rebound like we had and thought that we would chop near the lows for some time at which point I would be able to get into those names but it didn't work out that way and I rode 2020 with 20% cash. The biggest lesson I learned - if you see value take it don't worry about getting the best price your not going to time the bottom nor the top. Second, everything happens fast the timeline to recognize value and act has become incredibly short. Idk if it has to do with the proliferation of ETFs and passive investors but it seems to me that when stocks get cheap they all get cheap at the same time. That makes it a bit overwhelming and can lead to distractions. The best solution is to know the stocks that you want to buy in a pullback and at what price there is not enough time to do your research during the downdraft. Control what you can control. I was pounding the table but wasn't given a clear yes or no on the investment decision and didn't want to buy first. Ethically it's the right thing to do, but in the rearview, he probably had no intention of acting on my pitches in the first place. When the S&P 500 was down 35% from the highs I was told I'm too bullish. Unfortunately, this isn't the first time something like this happened but an idea here or there happens for me it just happened to be almost half my portfolio. Lesson learned - i should get a new job.
  4. Depends how deep into the weeds you want to get. Agree with Cigarbutt the CFA material is really good but it reads like a textbook so if thats not what your looking for you might get bored. Quick Read https://www.amazon.com/Interpretation-Financial-Statements-Benjamin-Graham/dp/0887309135 Deeper dive https://www.amazon.com/Financial-Shenanigans-Accounting-Gimmicks-Reports/dp/0071703071/ref=sr_1_2?dchild=1&gclid=CjwKCAiA9bmABhBbEiwASb35V1yBR2gkIYWHwu-9l_6iRuL7WaThJYZ-JzdA_dqITzn3h67qe1QschoCZM8QAvD_BwE&hvadid=241659046490&hvdev=c&hvlocphy=9067609&hvnetw=g&hvqmt=e&hvrand=3665366763512062860&hvtargid=kwd-131267602&hydadcr=21901_10170939&keywords=financial+shenanigans&qid=1611591057&sr=8-2&tag=googhydr-20
  5. upload images upload Blue = DJIA Red(?) = SP500 Gold = Gold Silver = Silver I said I was going to leave this alone but the fact that you shared a graph of the price return of the Dow Jones and S&P as a comparison to Gold and Silver just blew my mind. The correct chart to share would be total return since as an owner of a company you benefit from dividends and buybacks. Also, my point was that people who say Gold is a hedge against inflation are wrong and as you will see below if you go back to 1980 and adjust for inflation Gold has a negative return! The following is the CAGR of Gold and DJAI Total return with dividends reinvested from dates shown to Present (11/25/2020) adjusted for inflation. BOLD = Gold return 01/01/2010 = 3.45% 10.85% 01/01/2005 = 7.89% 7.33%* 01/01/2000 = 7.43% 5.08%* 01/01/1995= 4.25% 8.49% 01/01/1990 = 2.88% 8.26% 01/01/1985 = 2.73% 9.41% 01/01/1980= -0.18% 9.12%
  6. I tell most of my friends to keep 6-12 months in the bank and invest the rest of the index, buy on dips and pullbacks, and forget about it. I don't have an objection to managing family/friend's money but just like clients, you have to make sure that they understand what you are getting them into and set realistic expectations. Most of the questions have come from friends recently since the start of the pandemic and the market meltdown in February. The conversation usually starts with friends asking for me tips. I flip it and get a sense of what they are doing currently and what they own. Almost every single person has told me they are day trading Bio-Tech, jumping on momentum trades, and playing earnings. I then usually proceeded to tell them that I don't that and I invest for the long-term and what I do is pretty boring but is more about preserving and growing capital than short term trades. Most friends gloss over at this point as they think they are smarter and can make money easier doing what they have been doing the last 6 months. Market historic rebound, IMO, has given most people the impression that stocks only go up and that it's so easy you should just do it yourself, heck last week my barber was giving me stock tips. At the end of the day, I just try to get them to realize that what they are doing is risking buying stocks you see from someone online without doing any research rarely ends up well. I don't want to see them lose money but I do think the music stops at some point and people that are doing this will get hurt.
  7. The short answer... Not all banks are created equally. Slightly longer answer.... JPM is materially different from Citi, just like BNYM is different from USB or BAC. They have different sources of revenue even if you were to just look at loans, the composition of loans varies across all big banks. During stressful economic times, certain loan exposures will keep banks insulated while others will struggle more. I won't speak for Buffet as he is a lot smarter than I am, but I don't think the relationship between Buffet's view on the Financial Services industry and his individual financial holdings are perfectly correlated. He has also held most of these banks for a very long time so his return on capital has been tremendous. He will realize large embedded capital gains if he were to sell out of all banks just because he didn't like the short term outlook of financials. I do think buffet believes that banks are long-term compounders so it may just be that if he wants to lower his exposure he sells his least favorite in the sector while maintaining the rest.
  8. LOL! Agree. Gold miners are perennial destroyers of capital. Calling gold miners a value play might be the biggest oxymoron I've ever heard. Let's take a look back to the beginning of Covid how did that work out for the investors holding gold as a hedge? They took an even bigger beating than the market. But that's where your wrong D33pV4lue gold is a hedge against inflation. Then can someone show me a chart of equities index to inflation vs Gold indexed to inflation? Investing in gold is a fool's game why don't we just go out and buy some crypto? Not to say there arent times when trading miners isn't a good strategy, but as "long-term investors" it makes no sense. Sorry for the rant I will now mute myself from adding my 2 cents so as not to disturb the people in this thread that are actually interested in gold. BOL
  9. Sorry I am a bit confused about what you are asking. I just used the number that you provided me in a very simple calculation of how to apply it. The point of churn is to determine on average how long a customer will stay with the company. If you sign up 100 people in year 1 with a 50% retention rate after the first year but a 10% churn after year 1 then you need to factor that into the equation. If revenue per customer increases/decreases (on an annual basis) with the # of years they stay on then you have to factor that in.
  10. A for simple calculation of LTV you need the reciprocal of churn. So in this case, 17% means that on average each customer stays with Naked wines 5.88 years (1/.17). Average revenue is 197 per year so on average the LTV = 5.88*197= 1,158.82. Now you could go further and use a discount rate on the revenue and include gross margin or operating margin for total lifetime profit. For simplicity, let's say 6 years is the average customer lifespan. you would discount 197 each year. Sum= $925 year 1 = 197 year 2 = 168 year 3 = 156 year 4 = 144 year 5 = 134 year 6 = 124 does that help?
  11. Instead of using a hypothetical scenario, what is the real scenario?
  12. Spek - did you try the Von Trapp Cheese?
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