Red Lion

Bought some more NVO, it's still a small position for me, and I'll look to add more as cash becomes available. Not rushing to sell any of my other positions.

I agree. Obviously congress can print money. I just think it’s more likely that we keep borrowing, rates move lower due to necessity, and we have a period of deleveraging through nominal (and hopefully real) gdp gains. Whether the fed plays along over the next few years I couldn’t say, but it seems a more likely outcome sometime in the next 10-15 years than outright money printing to me.

And both parties will make the political choice to keep paying out full social security benefits which will get borrowed from somewhere. Congress will likely do some sort of reform of the system when that political choice is eventually made, and then those of us who aren't retired will likely get a new status quo for social security payments. It seems that over the next 15-20 years there is going to need to be some "fiscal dominance" and inflating away of the deficit. I've always thought real estate is a good long term hedge for this situation, but there are obviously other moving parts with real estate.

Who said the democrats don’t stick to their roots?

Stock trout never stop swallowing hook, line and sinker. They grow up in ponds eating buckets of swill (msm opinion masquerading as fact?) and don’t know anything else.

Well it sounds like we are basically on the same page. I do have to say, I personally think Trump 2.0 > Trump 1.0 in terms of execution. It's still early days, so he's got plenty of room to hang himself, but so far most of the naysayers have been wrong. I'm not an economist, and maybe I'm missing something, but as to your second point, if this all just comes out in the wash and we see no huge impact on inflation, I still think there's going to be a meaningful incentive to onshore production. Bonus depreciation + full write off on investment in production property + let's call it 10% less of a tariff barrier than the competition is going to be a significant incentive for a number of manufacturers. If prices were to wash, but we see a greater share of domestic manufacturing AND a domestic growth CapEx cycle, I think it could work out well. I'm not predicting this amazing outcome, but I'm not ruling it out either. And it seems like the default position is to always call Trump an idiot who only got to where he is on nepotism, and then dial back and redirect the criticism after history sometimes proves him right (e.g. Trump 2.0 foreign policy ex tariffs).

What I think hardly anyone (except the trump administration) is saying, is that this federal sales tax is likely to significantly (fully?) offset the deficit impact of the tax reform that was just signed into law. It's also going to increase the relative attractiveness of domestic manufacturing at the same time that we just fully reinstated 100% bonus depreciation. We also just put in a 100% deduction for the new building of production property. I know no one wants to give Trump the benefit of the doubt, but is it possible that between tariffs and the new tax law, that we have a new deficit neutral tax regime which provides huge incentives to re-shore manufacturing? Will we do massive investments in sock and underwear factories in the USA? Probably not. But for higher margin manufacturing, this seems like an incredibly good setup to invest in production capacity. Let's say Gavin Newsom becomes president in 2029, do you think he's going to roll back all these tariffs? Especially if the investment in production helps spur wage growth among non-college educated Americans sometime before 2029? Right now he's rolling back medicaid for illegals and trying to rework CEQA. So I'm not holding my breath.

A real estate professional could create tax losses by buying or building multi-family properties / using cost segregation studies / getting a lot of bonus depreciation. This has always seemed like the holy grail to me... On the one hand, do a healthy hard money business. On the other hand buy and hold investment properties, financing them probably 60% LTV with good terms on investment mortgages. I can't ever seem to meet the definition of a real estate professional, since I work more hours outside of real estate than I do on real estate, but I do think I may go this way in the long run if I decide to semi-retire in the future.

As an outsider it looks like Canada has the most level headed leader in the world, and a newfound unity and patriotism. Maybe the unity will pass when Trump moves on to the next target, but it seems like a great setup for your country.

Love the righteous gemstones!

Seems like it might have backfired if that's the case. The left still hates Musk, and the MAGA crowd will follow their marching orders.

It’s strange to me that they picked this particular case to stop nationwide injunctions. I haven’t had a chance to read the decision yet, but it seems like if a nationwide injunction won’t pass muster in a case trying to revoke birthright citizenship, when would one?

Neither side wants to fix immigration, sadly. Just go back and look at the last several administrations. Trump 2.0 is trying to blow its wad on big beautiful bill. Biden pushed the inflation reduction act. Trump 1.0 pushed tax cuts, covid stimulus, and tried to kill Obamacare. Obama pushed the ACA. Immigration reform could have likely been passed at any of these junctures. Politicians love having a problem to blame on the other side. It’s quite unfortunate because I suspect most American voters would like to see more legal immigration to this country, and a path to legality for those who have been here decades keeping their heads down.

Small add to NVO

I don’t disagree with anything in your story, but I also don’t see trump wanting to commit to land forces.

Why not targeted assassinations, sanctions and military strikes until the regime collapses?

+1. I like to add Bloomberg to the mix.

I read somewhere that Israel thinks they could do it by a succession of smaller bunker bombs, basically trenching as they bomb in layman's terms.

So would this decriminalize a botched backstreet abortion as well? Seems like this is an incredibly slippery slope.

I'd say the targeted assassinations have probably yielded at least SOME results on this end though. I can't see why the USA wouldn't use its bunker busters in this case, I feel like that's the most likely outcome over the next few weeks if Iran doesn't make some huge concessions and/or regime change in the short term.

+1

I've been feeling like this for a few years actually, although I'm not sure it's a rational viewpoint or just an extension of the gambler's fallacy. I have acted on this by putting a large percentage of my assets into stable real estate assets with relatively low (50-60%) LTV and a couple unencumbered. If (when) we have a deep GFC type event I'll definitely get taken to the woodshed, but hopefully won't have to capitulate and sell low. As @Spekulatius mentions we are bound to see another 50% drawdown in equity markets SOMETIME in an investing career, probably another 30%+ drawdown in residential real estate markets sometime as well. And probably long term bond markets too for that matter. Short of market timing based on macro/headline following analysis, it seems like the best way to create wealth for the long run is to make sure you're invested in businesses that earn a high return on their own capital and have a competitive moat, while being mindful of asset/liability imbalances (e.g. margin calls, balloon debt payments, insufficient working capital/liquidity). And probably one of the better ways to preserve wealth for the long run too, along with investment real estate.

If this is for legal immigration this would make total sense. I would be shocked if that includes undocumented immigrants, although I think it would be impossible to get accurate numbers on this.

Let me blow your mind here Blake…what if we capped the charitable contribution limit at the same level as the estate tax exemption? Then the ultra wealthy could still fund their endowments, but their estates would pay the same estate tax as everyone else over the limit. Add a small VAT tax. Tax buybacks at the same rate as dividends. Cut the exorbitant entitlement spending. Lower rates for all and spur growth.