crs223

Druckenmiller said something like “inflation has never been tamed with the FF rate less than CPI”. Presently the FF rate is 0.75% while CPI is 8.6%.

Not offended. I love internet political discussions. I would gladly pay $25/month for access to a dedicated COBF politics forum.

Winston Churchill allegedly said “you can always count on the United States to do the right thing… after all other options have been exhausted”. If you are correct about nuclear, then we will end up with nuclear. IMO following the day to day drama on this topic is a waste of time/life. Sort of like following/arguing the minute to minute price fluctuations of BRK.

thank you. Is #2 also true? 1. those transaction do not put a single dime in anyones pocket. 2. unwinding those transaction do not remove a single dime from anyones pocket.

I'd prefer asset price tumble for a few years so I can buy more. I think BRK would agree. Trying to use your words, this is the message I hear: Remove stimulus when no longer needed and the system is self supported People can afford houses even with interest rates going up There aren't enough workers to go around Stimulus no longer needed and the system is self supported Do not remove stimulus now Goto 1 I agree with #1-#4. #5 sounds inconsistent to me

Sorry for the imprecise/confusing language. I'll use your words: Q: Should the fed ever undo printing? a) No. Printing causes nothing bad. No need to undo it. The fed cannot make baby formula. b) Yes. But maybe later, not now. The fed cannot make baby formula. c) I do not understand the question.

@Gregmal will you share your thoughts: should the Fed ever “unwind” the printing of the last decade?

Name one aggressive thing this Fed has done.

Great idea. I'll be interested to see which of the COWZ are buying back during the upcoming downturn... not so much during the prior peak.

TY. TDAmeritrade does not consider my cash/stock balance as an asset (or my ability to liquidate it as a liability). Maybe banks do something different... I thought a bank considered my checking account balance as a liability. Probably because they lend out my money to create an asset.

Okay TY. Must be that his clients' funds do not appear on the balance sheet.

What does that mean? Paid cash? Diluted shareholders? Took out a loan? "I purchased X using balance sheet capital" "I purchased X using Enterprise Value"

What does "balance sheet capital" mean in this sentence: Our principal investments team invested in Luna in Q4 of 2020 using balance sheet capital.

Yes, that was the point of the clip.

Is Berkshire scared about the operating side? Are they excited about deploying cash? Are they indifferent?

I refinanced my house with AimLoan early 2021. I was given the option of "no appraisal" (and no appraisal fee). I took the option. Nobody ever visited the house.

Plenty of smart people are not working. Search “FIRE retirement”. my wife quit when schools sent the kids home. Closed schools, decades of “Fed put”, and stimmies: these take smart people out of the labor pool. How does the economy respond to people not working? Raise prices of goods and wages.

Let's assume a "late coming fool" buys now (interest rate is 9%) and later realizes ibond rate has dropped to 1%. Problem? No, Just sell it back to the treasury at par if you don't want it anymore. What am I missing? Caveats: Must hold for one year Hold for less than five years and you forfeit 1 quarter of interest

Here is what I took from your post: 1,000 words explaining “those with fixed rate debt and assets are golden”. Sounds good to me. 8 words saying “those without assets are in good shape too”. I didn’t follow that part. I hope this is true. If not, the people with assets might find there are no buyers when it’s time to sell.

I love this comment for two reasons. First anecdotes like this saved me from the 2006 housing bubble and resulting GFC. Second, because i am one of those shoe shine boys. Please tell me if im being dense or drinking too much kool aid… but ibonds are the biggest no-brainer I’ve ever seen… if I could buy an unlimited amount, I would take $1M of equity out of my house and back up the truck. Then sell and pay off the loan when the “ibond bubble” pops. What’s the deal with these ibonds anyways? Why does the USG subsidize savings for the rich*? * rich: more than $10k in savings

So I (OP) took a stab at calculating the PV of a REIT (STOR). It seemed somewhat straight-forward... (probably means I am screwing it up). I ignored debt (because I assumed it was wrapped up in the AFFO). This won't work if there is something "exotic" going on (like balloon payments). I projected forward CAGRs of share dilution, real estate asset values (minus depreciation), liabilities, AFFO, and dividends (as a fraction of AFFO). Had to be careful since AFFO is CAGR-ing faster than revenue - which cannot continue indefinitely. STOR guidance was for an even higher AFFO than my model could stomach, so I'm not sure what is going on there.

Even the participants have FOMO!

I'm just saying that there would not be a technical BK. If things go bad, and the US is facing bankruptcy, the US will avoid bankruptcy by monetizing the debt. Of course this would be horrific (inflation) -- but it's just too easy -- countries have been doing it for thousands of years.

US appoints the Fed. The Fed prints money to buy US debt. I’m not sure how US goes BK under that arrangement.