crs223

Im surprised to hear you say that. You often say “fed raising rates isn’t going to make new oil, homes, or chips”. As if these shortages are not due to govt.

No way. The fed doesn’t care about the debt that the treasury needs to pay. As a matter of fact, nobody anywhere cares about that. Not the treasury and not even the bond holders. Fed is a bureaucracy and as such cares only about their mandate (price stability and employment). If the fed really were worried about it, they would not have raised rates. Im not saying that inflation doesn’t help debtors like the US Treasury. Inflation does help. I’m not saying that Fed actions don’t help the US Govt. They often do (printing brrrr etc). But I do not believe that any decisions the fed makes give any consideration to the indebtedness of the US Govt.

I don’t believe people are behaving as if they expect inflation (good news for the Fed and maybe everyone else). 1-2 years ago people were hoarding FOMO-style, anticipating increased prices for (or shortages of) toilet paper, xboxes, cars, houses, bitcoin and stocks. Im not saying that there is no inflation, just that people are not behaving like there is.

Is this the argument?: 1. BH avoids paying $x/share in tax (presumably because it didn’t sell). 2. Therefore BRK share price is $x/share higher 3. Now I sell BRK and pay some “extra” cap gains for the unpaid taxes. Say 15% of $x 4. But my brother in law bought SPY instead. He’s now paying 100% of $x

Full disclosure: Drukenmiller specifically added a caveat: his confidence in his prediction is very low in this uncharted environment.

We are all guessing the unknowable, based on propaganda. Then trying to argue about who is the smartest. What a waste of time.

I work for an employee-owned company and I love my job. A major part of my satisfaction is being an owner, with voting rights. If the company wants me to do something dumb (sexual harassment training, unclog toilet, etc) I actually want to help. I’ll never work for a company where I’m not an owner. I cannot imagine what it’s like being Greg, but my guess is the even for him life is better when you’re a voting owner.

The Schiff/goldbug/pessimist in me says “a 13 year bender of low interest rates is all negated in six months. With FFR below CPI during this hiking cycle. B.S.“ But my Schiff/goldbug/pessimist psyche has been wrong for 15 years. Now I just own BRK and let Warren/Todd/Ted figure it all out.

@Spekulatiusis correct. “typo” is not the reason MSGE is losing money year after year.

I think/hope “doing what you love” is an important component. I’m thankful to not be in the camp of “I hate my job; can’t wait till it’s Friday”.

The problem is that yahoo finance shows MSGE with negative EPS and negative cash flow going back… forever. Once yahoo finance fixes that typo, the stock will go to the moon.

I would like to know what pct of iPhone sales are to people who already have a “completely functional” iPhone already. If that number is high, than i can see a hit. But iPhones are going to be the last thing people give up. If you don’t have enough money to pay the bills, do you go without iPhone or Cellular service? I don't think so, not nowadays. My guess: people will stop paying rent (change their living situation) or give up their cars before they go sans-iphone. At least for people under 35.

Well I’m okay with legal immigration and i’m not okay with illegal immigration. Even if we have to increase the limits. Even brown people. No horror-face. So now you cannot say “every time” anymore.

Fight the fed!

I don’t disagree with your numbers and the opportunity for a bad scenario to play out. I thought we were screwed when I learned about the federal debt 20 years ago, and I’ve been waiting for the collapse ever since. But: if we are going to profit from the market mispricing an event, I just cannot believe “rates will go higher” is the event. Every macro person in the entire field is thinking about inflation/fed/rates 60+ hours per week for 6+ months. Now if you had some intel on some obscure CDO, or imminent nuclear launch, or some novel asian virus…

“the fed will attempt to reduce CPI by raising rates”. This is priced in, omniscient raccoon not needed for that one.

When your renting out at $6k/mo like Eric you might have to deal with little things … “handle is loose” type stuff… at least that was my experience.

Farmers do not speak for all CA conservatives. I’ve never met one, but I’m sure they exist.

“The one political party that doesn’t like illegal immigration” … you mean the “anti-globalists”? Aka “racists”? Doesnt matter what you call them… they dislike illegal immigration. Even if we changed to a flat tax.

anti-illegal-immigration is the complaint. Why not have a policy/law/rule and follow it? The policy can even be “allow 1,000 immigrants for every unfilled job opening”. And the policy can be updated weekly. There has to be something between “open borders” and “you are all racists”.

I think the anti-globalists (who might also be called pro-nationalists) are looking to gain more control over the supply chain to increase security/availability. Even if it costs more.

Probably a blessing in disguise. i wonder why the engineer didn’t buy? FYI the engineer is probably happy to pay extra for quality top-notch landlording (and for all other services).

instead of selling your shares when you think the price is high, and hoping to get back in when the price drops… why not just forever sell covered calls on your position? In both cases you lose money when the stock skyrockets and you have to buy back at a higher price. I don’t know anything about trading and I never do it… just curious.

@mcliu thank you for the insight. I don’t like the bullying attempt aka “thought censorship”.

He’s saying “facebook was the reason for myspace’s demise”.