Jaygo

I originally invested in 2021, after I learned about it on twitter and did some work for a small position. Since then have done some more work to get more comfortable. Sitting at about a 3% position. I like it but have my reservations as well.

It was Chris waller of plural investing. It was a really good presentation. I don’t think it was filmed but he has been on a few pods lately with the same information. I think the links are in the Terravest thread. He and I discussed further at the agm and he has some really in depth knowledge of Terravest.

I find a lot of enjoyment out of not worrying about money.

I’m finding more and more young people are taking unnecessarily big risks for that big score because they feel the worlds passing them by. It’s shocking how risk averse they become when discussing simple strategies like a small levered investment in an boring idea but they have no problem putting 50% of their money into some shit coin or stock they saw on Twitter. I think in hindsight if I had known how much debt capacity I would have today I would have taken a little more risk in my 20’s. it’s funny how the lessons we learn as we age become less and less useful as we learn them. I think there’s a rod Stuart song about it.

lol I have no idea. I’m thinking I don’t know how to spell. Can’t put this one on spell check unfortunately! Just a foggy mind.

Bingo. I’m not Austin Mathews so I’m not making the kind of money he is. He can do lots of dumb shit with his money because lots more is coming. But for normal folks we have to play the game that is being played not the one we want to play. I personally feel that reasonable dept financed asset purchases is the only way to get ahead. Would I rather make 15 mil a year and not worry about this shit? Yes! I am in the position that if I work and invest what I can ( say 30k a year) I will live a decent life with some good security as I age, I personally feel that if I want to have an excess above this level I need to accelerate the flywheel by the use of dept. so far so good. I can borrow at 6 and expect 10 through something like brk. Safe if done right. the 6 is tax deductible yearly and the 10 is cap gains when I decide to unwind the game. I don’t like the game but I understand it is the way it is.

I kind of agree if I look at it only from my point of view. It is theft in a way. But in another way it’s a difficult job to keep all the money from floating to the top of the pyramid in our system. so if the actual money or dollar had the ability to hold its value or even increase in value the money would stay at the top of the pyramid and would not be distributed downward unless through some other means that I’m sure you or I would not like. Let’s say in the case of 0 inflation I have 10 million dollars and I feel that if I spend exactly 200,000 a year my money will see me through to the end. It will sit under my mattress except for that yearly 200,000. Won’t the money supply be restricted in that case.? Isn’t this the reason gold is not used any more because there is not enough to do commerce with? See the $100 is not money. It is just a method of transaction in the real world. Buy gold and sit on it if you feel like you want to hold real value.

Going to have to disagree here. In the pre inflation eras as in pre Industrial Revolution poverty and homelessness was less noticeable because pretty much everyone was destitute. Look at the era of Charles dickens or New York of the 1800s. Most were poor with a few very rich. Today many people are falling behind but many are doing great as well and even the ones who are falling behind are still having better lifestyles than before. I know some poorish people and they still have cell phones and a roof over their heads. It’s not ideal but they are also not digging through the trash for food. The one who are forced to do that are most likely suffering from a trauma that has nothing to do with 5% inflation. A 100 dollar bill is not a store of value. It is a transaction vehicle. If you want wealth you have to take risks and put that money to good use by moving it around the economy. If the 100 bill was 105 next year you would see a slowing of the economy and more importantly a slowing of progress because less risks would be taken.

The very idea of a sitting president who is mentally degraded yet is being propped up in a weekend at Bernie’s like situation tells me democracy is in question with the current admin. Sure Biden has his fire and brimstone speeches on a good day but some times he has major mental issues front and centre that should be justification for him to step aside. His handlers do not want it and the American people are the victims of a sham.

Yeah but this is nothing new. Currency debasement is not some new idea. Its the way the monetary system works. If my money was going to be worth more tomorrow i wouldn't spend it today and our economy would stop functioning. Inflation of the 70s was a supply shock as well as a major war. We may repeat that but there is no guarantee imo. And to think that people may not invest in America again after some Financial mess is crazy. How many wars has germany started and lost and destroyed itself only to be the strongest economy in europe again in the last 100 years. People go where the getting is good and the getting is good in North America and likely will be for a while. Inflation is part of that. Japan has been dead money for 30 years at a time of no inflation so your argument is not accurate.

Totally agree with both of you. A new road through the jungle will have a bigger impact than a 4th or 5th lane on a highway and may never actually recoupe the cost. A privatized bridge may be a good solution to reduce corruption in procurement and ongoing maintenance. My argument is if its about money and we are literally burning it in foreign wars maybe a few bucks towards a bridge or tunnel or new school doesn't seem too bad to increase the dept on. Especially when the government is controlling the level of debasement of that dept. My second argument is about the long term viability of North America to other places in the world. Money spent in Saudi Arabia considering it is a scorched desert with a dwindling central resource may not be the same as money spent in the American heartland or a place like northern canada with its unknown trillions of economic value yet to be extracted. I feel that a version of life in canada and the united states could last centuries so laying the foundation now does not necessarily drown our kids in dept as much as pave the way to a better future for them. Look at Europe, look at the cobble stone roads that were set 1200 years ago. Are we drowning in the depts of those roads or of the churches and cathedrals that bring millions of guests a year. I think a shit bridge with crooked contractors paid for by sleazy politicians should not be the base case for our dept financed infrastructure projects. Especially since the money is likely just changing hands of North Americans anyway.

Dont you think they will just inflate the dept away? so that although our children's depts are astronomical numbers it will be just as manageable as today (plus or minus a bit) Imagine people from Toronto of the 1950's hearing I bought a rural house for millions, they would flip out considering they paid just $ 10,000 for theirs. But in fact im just a guy living with bigger numbers like my kids will likely be

Who in their right mind doesn't see that 100 today is not 100 in 50 years. The 100 year Austrian bond was the height of lunacy as if Austria will be a Sovern nation in 100 years anyway? People who lend, banks ect are playing a different game with different ideas. Buffett buys treasuries to earn a bit while waiting for something real to come by like a railroad. He doesn't do it to make 1-5% Lending money long term is tough to understand unless the rates far exceed the level of inflation. In the 70's a big mac was less than 50 cents, today its 10x that or more. Our paper/ digit money looses value every day and has for a long time. Gold was 154 in 1974 today its 2400. Gold is money, paper or digits is just for transactions. Does it matter what the transaction number is? 10-100-1000 its just a digit. Will my house cost 18 million Canadian in 50 years, maybe maybe not who cares as long as its roughly the same value as today. I bet it will, gas will be 12 bucks a L, gold 25k OZ. all just a number. What we should care about is life expectancy, number of people starving, happiness, wars, have the leaf's won the cup ect

I kind of have to give it to Luca here. The CCP is regulating for the Chinese's populace, the US and Canada i'm not so sure. In Canada i'm regulated to shit but it never seems to be regulation in my best interest. Its more about protecting an industry or organization. A quick example would be a playground at my kids school. I have a quote for $ 82,000.00 from a school approved vendor. I can buy the exact ( exact! ) same structure on Alibaba for $ 11,000 including shipping. I could put it up for another 5-10k max. It requires 18 post holes with cement and then assembly. The board has indicated that it must be a board certified vendor and the playground needs to be certified. Ok so lets just assume the board is concerned with safety of the kids.( yeah no shit, they are my kids and their friends) why not allow other vendors to be allowed into the bidding process. The structure is coming from China, getting a certification plate in canada and then the vendor is making 60 k in a week or less. The end results of most regulation in NA is to reduce competition and protect incumbents inmo, not to protect our youth who are dumbing at an alarming rate or to protect our heath and best interests. Having never gone to China i am not totally sure but most Chinese i know are kind hearted in general , a bit rude and pushy especially if a lineup or free stuff is involved, mostly peaceful and very hardworking. All together pretty damn good people just like everyone else.

What if you borrowed to build a highway or bridge to increase productivity. As long as the money is not burned on military shit who cares If the deficit goes up as long as the standard of living also goes up. We have all seen that 100 dollars of dept today is essentially worthless in 50 years so why not just keep kicking the can down the road. Sure if I save 100 dollars that will also be worthless but I dont save, I buy assets that tend to hold their value. I think if you were a sinking island nation with few prospects than dept would be an issue but the North American landmass is going to be habitable for longer time frame frame than any of us should care so id say lets keep spending and building and getting better. Should Baltimore reconsider thier bridge because of interest rates? I'm not replying to argue, Im just trying to wrap my head around things like this.

An empire cannot really fall unless there is a suitable replacement. The UK gave way to a far stronger but allied USA, it was a smooth transition with somewhat similar beliefs. The USSR in Gorbachev had a really great opportunity as well all things considered. Their ego may have been bruised but their villages were not pillaged. There is currently no viable replacement to the US so the US cannot move out of the way and fade gracefully like the UK with their pomp and dignity intact. That makes it more likely that the Empire remains in power longer and more likely that it becomes a bit ugly towards the end, whenever that may be. As far as I understand the roman empire went out like a blind sick dog. The people lost faith, the empire became scared and forceful against its own and that caused the people to revolt leading to centre of power shifting to the Byzantines.

I think I am the one who mentioned a downfall of the US but am in no way predicting that and dont want to steer the conversation that way either. Its too promising a subject to go all doomer macro on. Its a great topic but fraught with unpredictables. If your looking to skate to where the puck is going I think you have to envision massive productivity gains in some things and status quo in others. What those will be will likely to be the deciding factor in equity performance. Can we take oil for example. Everything about energy and oil screams boom, we use more of it, need more of it and simply put our economy IS energy consumed. If i pay a guy 5000 to build me a fence the money is not gone, he has it. The trees are gone but they are self replicating. The only thing that disappears is energy and time, his physical and the embedded energy in all parts of the project (screws, wood, driving to HD ect) To me the only thing in the world that matters is energy but it has been a graveyard for capital for a long time. Why? because of technology. If it wasn't for tech in drilling, oil could be 600 bucks a barrel easily and we would pay it because there is no alternative. So oil could be where the puck is going if we dont have any more big breakthroughs. I think oil is a status quo that will struggle to find another shale revolution and will be upside heavy over the next 20 years. You could probably put anything hard to do in this pile. Anything related to aging is probably a decent bet too. What the hell do 65 year olds do?, what do they need, what do they desire. Retail Apocalypse Now Redux! I think Amazon is going to consume the bulk of retail and may be the only company to ever really deliver trillions to its owners. It just does not make sense to shop elsewhere for most items. Costco avocados rock but Bezos brings me my Bubbly! Its every facet of retail that amazon will grind to dust inmo. I'm currently fixing up a truck that was left to me by may late father. I'm willing to shop everywhere and have been reading forums on diesels and interior restoration. I take delivery on everything from amazon. They have it, they have options, and it shows up withing 36 hours. I bought oem filters, oil pans, gaskets, fuel filters, fuel lines, seat covers, apple car play dash, rear view mirror, marker lights, ford spec spray paint, PB blaster and oils, Sanding disks and body work stuff, wires and fuses. Literally everything except for two giant batteries. 5k easily so far. AutoZone didn't get that spend, Canadian Tire didn't get that spend either. Youtube. Traditional education is dead without knowing it. Youtube is essentially how knowledge has been passed on for thousands of years. If big ED wants to be about babysitting our youth and networking that's fine but I'll stick to Youtube to actually learn. The human growth and productivity that will come out of this format alone is likely going to rival the advances seen with Gutenberg's press. Those would be my picks, Energy, aging, the death of retail at the hands of Amazon and the rapid growth of decentralized knowledge. Lot of winners and losers to dig through.

Great topic. I think to try and compare any time frame and extrapolate from it is unwise. The era of 2000-2012 had the tech bubble burst so stocks were damn high to begin with. Then 9/11 and the invasion of Iraq of which hopefully will never be repeated. And to layer it all on with the rise of China and its insatiable appetite for any commodity the obvious results were counties like Canada, Australia and EM doing well as the US sank and spent all its money invading other countries then propping up its companies during the 07-09 I remember well in late 2009 sitting in a giant hot tub in Whistler talking with a group of people. Several from Scandinavia, a few Aussies, one guy from the east and 6 or 7 Americans who were really smart and top of things. We all agreed that the world now belonged to Canada and China and the US was entering a downward spiral. Everyone was sure and everyone was wrong. Canada had this big swinging dick feeling in 2010, we held the G20, we held the Olympics and were kicking ass. Our Banks were rocking and some countries even considered using our currency, the beaver!, oops sorry the loonie. I think we even came close to empire building with a purchase of Turks and Caicos. Well it has been a slow, slippery slide down from basically that point. Our market has sucked, our banks look like shit, EM blew up, China looks like shit and its equities have fared even worse. We now have a dufus masquerading as prime minister and our status on the world stage is somewhere between flaming pile of Shit and rotten banana Republic. Is America about to go through the same thing? Who knows, probably nobody. I could see a great reckoning for America just as easily as I could see a great rebirth. I'm not overly hopeful but i'm humbled by usually being wrong when i'm sure of something.

Yeah DDM sounded great on the calls but I guess they just cant outmanage a lack of snow in their key markets. Boss plows is moving up as well as buyers plows. I think DD thought they had a captive market and now Toro and ASH are taking their market share. Western, fisher and snowex are still the most prevalent but its not a monopoly by any stretch. Long term I think Toro will continue to hurt them just from the scale and dealer network pressure.

Yeah this is pretty bang on. I would say that fiscal spending like roads and infrastructure, student loan forgiveness and plain old cheques in the mail affects asset prices less than QE so may be the better way to go if you wan to goose the economy. The trouble is if they continue to do it for too long the government ends up being the economy.

For starters my purchase was only like 110 shares so its not like i'm all in on PLOW. Ive owned and followed over the years and was looking for another beaten up dividend payer so tossed a few bucks at it. Douglas was a pure play in Plows but then bought Dejana the upfitter that had bad margins and changed the whole way the company was looked at. It went from seasonal cyclical but with good margins in the up years to lower overall margins but still cyclical. In my mind at these prices your paying a decent price for a commodity plus business. The steel blades are the commodity and the wiring harnesses and accessories are the plus and where you make money. Its no different than Toro or Federal signal and with some management improvements there is no reason they cant get their shit together.

Sorry for the thread derail but I think that all or most industrials have elevated margins right now that will shrink. By how much i'm not sure but i could see 20% lower. I can also envision a business environment where a lot of contractors are simply giving back the keys or getting liquidated. That said I think Wajax can continue in the range of $2.-4 eps. Hitachi is gaining ground and they are the distributor. A lot of niche parts run through them so I dont think they are likely to fade away. I learned about them from buying some parts and took a small position in the low 20's and have done a bit of research lately. Some parts are priced to insanity because of the rarity of them and I'm not sure if pissing off your customer is good business. Tennant has done this for years and customers hate them for it. I would say Wajax is definitely in that game and it may be a problem long term depending on management. I look at it like a infrastructure, mining and energy play at a reasonable valuation vs peers.

I have a much easier time finding value here though. Wajax, FFH, DOO, Doman, Equitable all under 10P/E The US equivalents are generally valued higher.

SWK, Douglas Dynamics and Newmont

And they complain about taxes lol. Most people receive far more than they will ever pay ( thank you Alberta!!) but bitch and complain about how high are taxes are. I doubt anyone has ever read their tax forms to see how little is actually paid unless you are making millions as an employee. One heart surgery is close to 100k apparently and most men end up getting one or something similar.