Jaygo

This guy makes my skin crawl. I dread the idea of modern politicians listening to his ideas and thinking its time they "saved" the world. I dont know him personally so its not a affront to his character but economists like him are dangerous imo. When I think of great regions and eras it is always laissez faire at the heart of it.

Imo a basket approach is likely best. Everything is beaten down so hard that picking one over the other may not be the way to go. I love the XEI index as its rebalancing seems to mirror the "dogs of the tsx" portfolio strategy. The issue with XEI is you dont get any of the quality basket like FFH, Dollerama, TRI, X etc. ZCN is probably the best etf for US investors

I dont have any specific speculation but with the large amount of USD in treasuries and the performance of the CAD I sure hope he is looking North for the next one. At this point he could basically take 10% of the entire Canadian stock universe and still have reserves left. Hey Greg and Warren, my bags are ready to be picked up!!

I guess you can say I have a hybrid approach. A core long term holding and when an opportunity with a good chance comes up I scale up or down the holding. The risk was there but pretty low id say, we are in a bull market so a slow grind up with a catalyst is a decently sure bet. In fact the reason I sold the position is not because I dont like Fairfax, its because I am trying to manage risk, the extra shares were never intended to be a long term holding, ( I already have that ) it was just a bet on a run up into the index inclusion.

@Parsad @73 Reds Just food for thought, I think you are both likely correct but you may not be looking at it from other peoples perspective. You both are older and very likely far richer than myself so do not fully understand my motivation. I trade trade around positions I like in an attempt to boost performance and allow for higher risk securities as well. Admittedly it doesn't always work but usually it does. I have a core holding in Fairfax that I hold similar to your beliefs, long term without much handwringing. It is also the around the maximum percentage I am willing to hold in any one security. But I also took on some debt and bought a good bit more expecting the index inclusion as outlined by @SafetyinNumbers. His reasoning was very sound and I like the company. I sold yesterday as the index inclusion did not happen, and paid off the portion of margin. I made $ 14,000 USD on the trade. It could have been better but at my stage in life 14k is important, I'm not retired, I work and have a family of 4 to support so this was a great result all based off what I felt was a very very good probability of index inclusion and the run up into it. I would imagine some on the forum say 14k, lol this guys doing all that for 14k. Just buy and hold you fool! Well yes I am because in my life 14k is about a month of hard work. If i'm still doing this in my 50's and 60's I may have screwed up but for now this is how I "beat the market" Everyone is at a different stage in life. I'm in the maximization stage and even a few % per year make a huge difference.

Warren Buffett is one classy guy. That letter does have a feel of goodbye in it which is sort of tough to take. A public praising of his children is a nice touch that is somewhat rare in that generation. Bravo WB His advice of discussing the will of a parent is very good advice, one I wish I had done with my dad as it may have made things easier to digest at a time of immense loss. Losing a friend and parent is not the best time to get bombarded with new information and a mountain of paperwork. If WB does step down I selfishly hopes he writes a long letter to all of us. I could really do with one more dose of his wisdom.

Hey appreciate that. The more I learn, the more I realize how much I have to learn.

Others will know better but according to the S&P literature the index inclusion doesn't happen until the 3rd Friday of the review month, so that would be around December 20th. Would the inclusion news be expected to be released before that? Its odd since that's one of the last trading days until Christmas so generally really low volume around then.

Yes that's right. I would say at that time you anticipated it but with lower odds. When a few months ago you were talking about it with much better idea of the inevitability with Algonquin falling and FFH growing so rapidly, that was the correct time to add leverage. Bet on the horse that's winning the race already, as long as he doesn't fall its money good. My point is that many on this board have been telegraphing a likely scenario that has more or less come to fruition, not based on hopes and dreams like many of my BS picks but based on rational expected outcomes. Outcomes that one could place a little leverage on and still sleep soundly.

^^^ rational optimism is a necessity in life. Personal risk is based on who you are, The example of the Eastern Europe is good but also flawed. A rational optimist would look at history and say life is improving but we are on the boundaries of regional conflicts that dates to the middle ages. I may just keep a little bolt hole in the west. I feel as a NA person the future lies here. No regional conflicts in its history, the War of independence, civil war and Indian wars are not blood feuds scorched into the psyche) We have large defensible borders with so much abundance there is very little reason to fight regionally. So the rational optimist would keep his investments here with a bolt hole to Patagonia in case of the big one.

Dumb is dumb though. The above situation is plainly dumb. If a not so brilliant but hard working guy wants to borrow from his future wages to take a 5K trip he's in trouble. If he borrows from his future wages to buy into the NA economy I feel that's a wise decision at this stage. I did mine without debt until my first mortgage but had I layered on some debt to invest in the markets and stuck it out I could be much further ahead. I started this journey a few years ago via a Smith Manouver and its frankly the biggest Bonanza I could have hoped for. Luck and this forum have been on my side. Tax breaks on interest, low taxes on dividends and 108% return thus far. It beats real estate and it beats lump sums on an RRSP. You guys on this forum have been discussing Fairfax and the index inclusion for how long? 3 months ago I think @SafetyinNumbers mentioned it. @Viking has been by our side, holding our hands and saying Jaygo its cheap, its going to be ok. Buying more Fairfax a few months ago was a calculated risk. Not too much downside with far higher odds of upside. A largely bright future discounting any cataclysms. So I doubled down and borrowed more to buy it. I dont see that as inherently risky. I see it as taking next years earnings today tax free. Buying into a high odds probability and waiting a few months to let that play out. If FFH goes to zero I will have wasted 1 year of my working life to pay that back (less after tax) If FFH doubles I will have gained one year of working life (more after tax) Please explain @Parsad how that is not a good bet at this stage of my life? Also just to make everyone comfortable I am in no way putting a potential loss on anyone. I'm a big boy who makes his own decisions.

Total thread derail so sorry to all. He would likely just be shocked by it all. The waste especially, It made him sick. His was a mentality based on fear of going back, to going hungry again. All the while as his kids we lived very well here, not spoiled but pretty damn close to it. He had a depression era mindset that he couldn't shake and its really strange how these things get passed down through generations. My grandfather Aurelio spent 18mths in a concentration camp in on the border of France. Our side lost to the Franco fascists. They survived off watery gatchas and if lucky vermin they trapped. So later in life he is part of a rapidly rising fortune of Spain but would not waste anything. Food, paper, clothing, metal cans from beans. Everything was saved. Everything that is garbage in today's society. Ill never forget him coming over to Canada for a visit in the 1995. we go out for chicken wings and he would be polishing the bones, not a morsel left, cartilage and all. My dad too and as kids it became a thing make sure that chicken bone is spotless. Now my kids do it too and they even say "look dad, just like great grampa"

I think you may be underestimating how difficult it is to gather assets for young people today. I see it in my employees who are basically spending every cent they earn just to pay for gas, insurance, rent etc. Maybe the smart ones can save enough to max their TFSA In the past 4 years we have had a 40 % increase in the money supply on about 10% economic growth. That is a 30% devaluation imo. Lets say 4 years ago one of these guys borrowed 100K or 2 years of pre tax income. They buy the XIU or VOO or whatever. They would receive a decent tax refund for the interest expense of about 2000 a year, they would be up to about 150k portfolio value and would be getting about 5k in yearly dividends. The interest would be about 6k per year or 24K in total. Roughly equal to the tax savings and dividends. I think we, Parsad you in your 50's and me in my late 30's are a little blind to how out of hand things have become. My first house was 300k that same house just sold for 1.4M 3 months ago. (Not by me sadly)

Thank you for pointing this out, If it sounded harsh towards his influence it certainly was not intended. My dad was about the kindest, smartest and most reasonable person you could imagine, He was my hero and north star but he was shaped by immense poverty as a child, growing up hungry and in the debt of others until he moved to canada. He grew up on gruel, they called it gachas in Spain. He shared a dirt floored room with his older sister, they didn't get concrete floors until he was a teenager. Two siblings died as toddlers. Basically he was forced to work around age 7, he only had 3 years of school until he started working full time. He is the definition of the Canadian dream. He came here and worked like a possessed man. But the one thing he was terrified of was losing it all and going back to poverty so his risk barometer was ultra sensitive. To him the stock market was gambling, debt was a ball and chain to escape from not an instrument to get ahead with. I feel blessed to have grown up with his influence but I have had to work outside of his guidance in many respects. In his eulogy my final parting message was this. " I think a good father is someone who is not flawless, but someone who lives so open and honestly that we could learn from his victories and his defeats. He built his life so we could stand on his shoulders to achieve new heights while avoiding the hazards that befell him" I personally feel debt today, while it can be dangerous used incorrectly is the only way to escape the velocity of currency devaluation. I wish this was not the case, I wish hard work was still the only answer because I feel society may be better off with some dirt under its fingernails.

@modiva To me safe assets need to be based on age and ability. At 20 a safe asset is some books and the balls to take calculated risks. At 80 a safe asset is probably a house, some gold for the grandkids and a friendly jurisdiction with sunny weather. My safe asset is my 39 year old frame and my mind. Getting less safe by the day btw. But i'm still in growth mode backed by the understanding I am entering the best 15 years of my earning power. Its foot to the floor on asset gathering right now. I wish, wish, wish someone told me to lever up when I was young. My father was such a play it safe guy he always advised caution but now I see the meager yearly savings of my 20's is a days swings in my portfolio now. What would have been 100k of margin on the TSX in the year 2003?, terrifying at the time but not much really. Safe would have been borrowing from my future self and buying assets to protect from inflation.