Cod Liver Oil

Added to Crox. All the shoe companies seem to be tariff casualties. I like Crox at 90 and NKE at 70. Skechers and Deck getting tarred with the same brush.

@rogermunibond I am always interested when great companies like Nike or Hershey go through hard times and the stocks lose half of their value. Are they permanently impaired? Why have they stumbled? Can they repair themselves? When? Are the problems systemic, secular, operational etc..... My guess is that NKE and HSY are still good/great businesses. DIS is probably a less good business than 10 years ago so may be formerly great. Hill has not really had a chance to impact the business yet but we will see what he can do in the next 12 months. Even though they have let some competition spring up, I don't think the brand is damaged. The stock is at least partially de-risked at 70. Turnarounds rarely work but Hill doesn't need to reinvent the wheel here. If he just gets back to basics, business will improve. I am conveniently skipping macro issues like tariffs and China retaliation at my peril.

Added to NKE at 70. Thinking about making it a core position. Dinar and Spek would disapprove because you need to look past the numbers to have this make sense.

When @nwoodman finally bought some, I knew we were close. The man owns very few stocks. His skull is a Fairfax planetarium. Good things to come. Many of these things have the EKG of a stone and awaken from a coma "slowly, then all at once." I'll wait until MSGE, NEN, Joe and Odet rip the van winkle.

Against my better principles, I’m buying some Comcast at 33. The stock has been a disaster but it’s getting a makeover and has some nice assets. Their collaboration with Nintendo in both parks and films is encouraging.

@John Hjorth not exactly a charity, but this one is for you: https://www.instagram.com/p/DFi7Viny3ZC/?igsh=MndzY3Y3Z3Fub3V3

Does anyone else think this guy is genius?

This is all table stakes for big tech. Parsimony is good for everyone except data warehouse landlords. People are running DS on raspberry Pi. https://www.seangoedecke.com/deepseek-r1/?utm_source=tldrnewsletter

@dinar and Druk think Milei is the real deal. Does it follow that we should put some usd to work in Argentina? If so, what are the best opportunities?

Sanjeev, I'm not sure all the theory makes the game more enjoyable. Even though theory is intellectually stimulating, it narrows the possibilities for fun and surprise. This game that @Blugolds calls out is hilarious: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObmFR5Dz7Ac But if it is all about "winning" then you need to surrender to Stockfish or Jim Simons' home-made algos at Millennium. It makes all of our arguments here at COBF seem quaint.

@SharperDingaan yes Carlsen is playing such disruptive crazy openings to defeat the algos. Genius has its privileges. Gamification evolves and the gaming space grows.

I am loosely organizing my kids education around chess, music, Taekwondo, art and robotics. What are you guys focusing on?

@Parsad et dudes, what are your favorite openings? So far, I have taught the kids Ruy Lopez, the English system and, in honor of COBF, the Ponziani. You really see kids’ characters when they play chess!!!!

Great point about embedded brain power being difficult to quantify.

Spend time with your kids: https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/relationships/the-secret-to-raising-confident-children-quality-time-with-parents-21a806a6?st=q7XYL2&reflink=article_copyURL_share

Some Hershey. It's a 100 year old Buffett-like high ROIC business getting squeezed by raw input costs. Customers' stomachs are also being squeezed by GLP. Mondelez is a ready buyer who has approached them twice. How happy can the Hershey Foundation be with zero returns over the last 5 years? The CEO is retiring this year. Nice tuck in for Berkshire. Even though you have to squint to see growth at the moment, you could also make this large because of sheer quality. Like HHC pre-Ackman bid, no catalyst, just quality left for dead.

I know they are very frustrated with the share price inside JNJ. Is the talc thing existential? MMM was dragged through worse and seems to be coming out the other side pretty well. I don’t think the business is in secular stagnation (beer) or being fundamentally disrupted (ADBE possibly). Big pharma has justifiably sucked, but JNJ has some strong divisions. @73 Reds In Peter Lynchs’s words, many ways to skin a cat. My point is that the indexes often mask what is happening below the surface.

Yes, the indexes are near highs and some smart guys are carrying a lot of cash but there are a bunch of high quality companies whose stocks have sucked and may be de-risked. Some of my favorites right now: Joe, Hsy, Msge, NKE, PDD, MGM, Nsrgy, GD, LVMH, Brown-Forman. Please add yours.

I bought some PDD in honor of @Luke. The alleged growth and alleged balance sheet offset some of the China risk but none of the nausea.

@WayWardCloud I am involved with a team building an AI music/video technology. My head designer said he has shifted over the last couple of years from 100% Adobe CS to 10% now. He is primarily using Figma, Runway and Midjourney. He sees Adobe as a bloated suite of products which has superior competitors. Adobe has been a great business but I am concerned that it is legitimately being disrupted.

Covered the remaining MSTR short and got put the remaining January Nike.

Choked laughing at this. Vintage Dinar. Acid truth.

@Spekulatius what do you think of the Pesenti family? Are they aligned? Even at half NAV, this has been a dog. Is there a catalyst? I keep thinking of JOE at 1/3 NAV, well run and well aligned (except for the Bruce overhang). Why own a collection of assets with no synergies? I suppose this goes for other family run European dynastic holding companies. Cheap but hard for minorities to own in size. As you know, we own the Bollore complex in decent size but I’m agnostic.

Thank you brothers!!!!! I look forward to another great year of jostling, arguing and laughing in our ridiculous pursuit of gains. If @nwoodman ever comes to NYC, I want to walk the length of Manhattan with him!!!! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Saunter

Covering MSTR short. Buying big oil, Joe and MSGE. A quick visit to the toy store. Visiting bros with bags of Sey coffee.