Castanza

CLF, X X P/E 2.14 Anyone else looking at this? Net debt down to 1.1b from 2.9 over last 5Q. So another 3Q before debt is gone we could see increased capital return. Share repurchase 123m with 500m still available.

smidge of BC and PCYO

Ted Danson Wall St. Edition

Bring it, I finally have a reasonable cash amount and no margin so I’m ready to lever up on Brk.b at 162 again

BC, PCYO, HTL, NTDOY

lmao have to love iPhone auto correct

If you’re on a VPN for work the adds are pretty random. I’ve been getting the watch, swimsuit and lawn fertilizer adds. If they were targeted, I’d imagine all you old guys would be getting erectile distinction adds jk jk lol

A bit of CLF, X, VET, ATCO, ZIM

That’s just denial though. Same thing had always happened throughout history and especially during modern times. People ignored 70k civ causalities during the GWOT. People in China probably ignore Uighur situation and people in Russia ignored their military buildup.

O&G always makes me nervous, I prefer simple straight forward stuff like TPL. But the setup here looks pretty compelling. Plus it seems to be a theme of mine to jump in small risky positions as of late. I’m looking out 1-2 years with this so I guess we’ll find out!

Starter in VET

SNC

Thx looks pretty interesting, a whole mess of add ons at a seemingly reasonable valuation

Thanks for the idea, not sure if I'm interested though. I think geographical locations will matter quite a bit moving forward for commodities and I'm not sure I want to put a stake down in Chile. From an outsider perspective, South American commodities have long been a risky investment. Also the reliance on state owned assets is a bit concerning (even with contract in place). Edit: I will say the capital return emphasis looks interesting, but still not sure if that's enough

adds AIV, PCYO, PINS, INTC new (small position) CMMC.TO trading at levels from 1 year ago with balance sheet improvements. Hit some operational issues Q4 but are expected to resolve by 2H 22. Trading at like 2.5x cash compared to 9x industry average. Upcoming call April 26th…will be interesting to hear updates on AUS mine. Anyone else looking at the copper/metals segment? Definitely open to ideas as this area is not my forte….

Sure and that makes sense. I mean you have a whole bunch of moving parts that are generally slow as shit to move. It's not too often the stars align where you have low mortgage rates, high wages, abundant properties, low inflation rates, with low consumer debt and near perfect demographics for the "perfect time to buy a home".

Don't get me wrong, you can definitely probably make out well either way. I just think there is some handicap that comes with regionality and rates that make builders less attractive. The higher the probability inflation persists and rates continue to climb the more discount to book these things deserver. I'm not super confident in a re-rate to NAV play. We may all be a bit late to this trade? The reno market might be worth a look though. Owens Corning could be somewhat interesting. I got two quotes for a roof on a property I own. Kicking myself for not pulling the trigger last summer. Price jumped from 14k-19k from June-March....same roofer, same shingle....could be some room to run with high oil, low supply, high demand, all packaged in a gotta have it when you need it product.

Listened to this on my morning jog Quick notes - Pent-up demand doesn't have to be realized - Rent up 17% Mortgage cost up 33% - Housing hasn't really ever been cheap - Renovation segment is the highest demand segment for dimensional lumber (400b out of 1t) - Lumber prices are primarily high due to logistics (flatbed trucks are in short supply) - Finishing product supply constraints will last longer than lumber constraints (HVAC, Plumbing, Garage Doors, Windows, Paint) Most interesting part was the discussion on Book Value to Home Builders. KBH was used as an example. The conclusion was pretty binary. Either home builders will miss projections on the next few quarters and write down land/homes under construction and that the economy is way worse than we think...or this is a major over reaction. I don't have a good view on the reality of the market. Many of my peers are looking for homes but availability is low and prices are high. Now that interest rates are going up, that affordability is really getting stretched. But rent prices are also climbing at about 50% of mortgage costs and the idea of locking in long-term expenditures is attractive even if a premium is paid now. It has me thinking whether home builders are the best play? Starting to think that already built/rental segment is looking better because it has some downside protection (got to live somewhere) in the event that you can't find (due to supply) or afford (due to rates) a house. Mortgage rates are the kingpin to this trade imo. If they go up to 7-8% I think there would be a big curtail on demand.

Haha atta boy! I don’t have the conviction to lever up and every time I get fully invested there seems to be a fire sale and I end up taking a smaller bite of the pie than I was hoping for.

Just listened to that, pretty interesting take on the setup….makes me wish I went longer dated on my CLF calls though

Curious how everyone is positioned currently? What’s your cash stack looking like? Largest are RTX, MSFT, VZ, ATCO, MSGS, AIV, PCYO, INTC CLPR, PSTH (3%), T, BAC, APTS (5% sold out), TPL, GOOG, JOE, BABA, GRBK, NTDOY, ESRT, a few index funds and a bunch of other 1% shit 13% cash not including PSTH

AIV CLPR

Yeah it was pretty sweet although the moon was pretty bright that night and I had a fair amount to drink. Either way I enjoyed it lol

I'll give you a third The Dublin Pub in the Oregon District of Dayton....top 10 Irish Pubs in the states

If you're ever out near Dayton check out Carillon Brewing Co. It's a historical brewery all done with methods from 1850. I think it's one of if not the only brewery in the US that does this.