Castanza

Exactly Autonomous cars might be good for planned activities, but for all the random gotta go now things they simply aren’t practical. Grocery delivery is great, but you often have to schedule it a few hours out. There is no, “shit I forgot the onion” orders one on app and it’s at your door 5 minutes later. If I had to use an autonomous car for every household project I do, I would be bankrupt from ride fees to and from the hardware store

Le Shrub Twitter account interview. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/hidden-forces/id1205359334?i=1000623286587

It’s a crazy tough situation for politicians tbh. Covid didn’t help as it naturally grew “monopolies” in some markets because certain companies were just natural beneficiaries that could better serve in the manner needed at the time vs smaller guys. But at the same time politicians also hurt a lot of small companies as well (maybe more local decision making). Regulation and antitrust has been interesting and again politicians are in a tough place. They target MSFT and ATVI deal which makes no sense to me. Then they talk a tough game against companies like Amazon with unions, but will that chicken ever come home to roost? What would happen to Amazon if all of a sudden they have a union and have to pay their logistics employees $47/hr with time and a half, plus better benefits? Likely wouldn’t be great for their logistics segment that desperately needs AWS funding. Maybe regulators go further and make Amazon separate AWS from logistics and quit the pass through funding. Also would be devastating. In short, the mega caps that are eating everyone’s lunch are also the same companies that provide a ton of economic and value add services to consumers. How do you regulate that and reign things in? S&P would crater if there was any serious regulation on FAANG forcing spin offs, manufacturing changes, wage increase etc. These companies were built during easy money times and their roots run deep. Todays economy coupled with the behemoth companies seems very much like a damned if I do damned if I don’t situation from a regulators perspective.

@mattee2264 thanks for your perspective on this topic as well. Something I’ve. Even thinking about as well. @Luca Yeah the subscription lifestyle has always been something that’s troubled me. Works well for both consumers and companies during good times. But throw in a scenario where consumers dump their subs in mass and you now have one hell of a rug pull for a lot of companies if it lingers. A lot could absorbs that without issue because they are diversified, but there are definitely some sectors and markets where this might not be the case. Big reason why I almost completely avoid investing in content. Any good books or podcasts you’ve listened to on the these topics (stagnant capitalism)? More and more it feels like the beer to foam ratio of capitalism is getting worse for the majority of people. Is this policy driven or a natural feature?

You’re not seriously considering the time involved here. Unless there are hundred vehicles queued in automated garages outside of every neighborhood then there is no way this is the same. If I call an Uber to my place right now it’s 20 min to wait. Most places in the country probably don’t have more than 5 Ubers etc. If I have an emergency, I’m going to grab my kid get in the car and drive. Takes 10 seconds. All you need in an emergency situation is an automated car with a flat tire that refuses to drive any further. A random construction zone or loss of signal that half’s the car. Or worse, a no car available situation. All the situations I described above would add 20+ minutes into every situation. Extrapolate these situations to millions of people and you need a massive pool of vehicles in extremely close locations. The automation you’re describing is a very different use case than what Ubers are being used for now for 90% of the population. Where are you going to put them all? Who’s going to own all the real estate and maintain those garages. Is the infrastructure sufficient? It’s going to be more of a struggle in cities than people think as well. ————— Try it out for a week! Commit to using Uber for everything for a week Parsad I do admire your commitment to looking forward on things though! I just think with vehicle automation, it’s been never ending promises since the 1920’s Worlds Fair

Not only that but it completely ignores simple things like: - Random emergency - Popping over to a friends/parents - Kids sporting events/practice - Random schedule changes - Forgot the avocado on taco Tuesday - Joy ride on a lazy afternoon evening - Helping a buddy move something The amount of random “I need a vehicle now” moments there are in life makes the planning and waiting aspect of this ride hailing dubious at best. Also zero chance I want to send my car out while I’m not using it to taxi random people around. People have no respect for others things. Have enough friend who did Uber that have enough stories of people kissing, throwing trash, smoking, getting to third base etc. all in their car. That only goes up with a driverless vehicle imo. No way I want that stuff in my “family car”. If there ever is a world where we don’t own vehicles (or other things as World Economic Forum/UN has said) I hope I and my children’s children are long dead by that time. People who come up with predictions like this seem to think the world is binary like a SIMS game. Ignores the nuance that makes life beautiful and human imo.

Enter stage left the digital yuan that has an expiration date

Word is almost every pdf version is being scrubbed from the net. Doubt it tho. Might want to list your copy $19,999

Small adds: FRFHF, CASH New position FFXDF

Softwar_A Novel Theory on Power Projection.pdf

Are you getting this on IB? Can’t find it on Schwab

PDF version here “there”

Appreciate all the perspectives from the folks above1 COBF never disappoints

Throw in some Insurance and underlying commodity producers that back the other sectors like WFG and I agree whole heartedly.

What'd she say about the boat part? Agree 100% though.....quick trip over to WallStreetBets shows the opposite side of the coin. Dude Yoloing 10,20,30k sometimes 75-100k yearly and posting their loss porn. Always wonder what the rest of their portfolios look like. Or if they have a house, vehicle, student loans etc.

Timing and market conditions have a lot to do with it. I think what Greg and Changegonnacom allude to are soft benefits that you might not see initially on your bottom line. Which makes a lot of sense. But then you can look at things like appreciation of a house from 2009-2023 (200k -> 293k) vs SPY (200k -> 1.3m) over the same period. Lots of luck, time, and market conditions that go into that. But (and it's a big but) it's not as clear cut for people who actively play a role in their finances. I mean in Toronto you could just as easily buy a 2m house only to have the market tank and be stuck with a house with a market value of 1.6m. Then you've got variable rates on top of that.... All depends i guess.

LOL have to admit that is a gangster move to put that in there. I'll have to remember this for future use. @changegonnacome @Gregmal Agree that for 99% of people the mortgage mechanism is a great forced savings tool. Similar to 401k etc. Yeah I guess there could be better options, but sometimes good enough is best and removes the added stress of trying to eek out an additional 10% like Bluegolds alluded to above. Appreciate the thoughts.

Im only tracking it for pure entertainment because you always here from people that a house is a great investment! A lot of people talk about the value of a house in terms of a return for when you sell it down the line. But when you actually look at the numbers, most people are underwater. Really the main benefit is it’s paid off in retirement. Outside of that there really isn’t any advantage from a financial standpoint. I like my house and the upgrades because it’s what we wanted. Most upgrades won’t get your money back. No qualms there! And I agree @Blugolds11 there is more to a house than the financial aspect. But… Realistically most people are looking at what 1-2% CAGR over their 30 year mortgage factoring in inflation (pulled out of ass)? Which triggered my idea of tracking every expense to see how it all shakes out in the end. Im really just curious to see if there are people who go from 25 -> Death who rent their whole lives and actually come out ahead financially vs owning a house. Part of me (the cynical side) think this might be the case in certain areas (probably not in mine). I guess time will tell. At the end of the day this is probably a complete waste of time lol. But maybe I’ll be right at which point in retirement I’ll turn it into a shit book with an obnoxious title like “Don't Ever Buy a F$$$ing House!”. Sell thousands of copies and fund my golden years traipsing around Europe sipping fine wine and driving exotic cars

How do you guys factor costs of owning a home into this long term? When I bought my house (which I ended up paying off early) I wanted to keep track of every single input cost I have so in 30 years or whenever I decided to sell at this point I can see IF I’ve made a positive return. I have a journal titled “The Cost of a Home” where I keep a running tally of every single expensive used on the physical maintenance of the house/property. From every major project down to every box of screws, tube of caulk, paint brush, p-trap, toilet flange, load of mulch, etc. Let me tell you that shit adds up over time! So far I’m ahead based on current market prices and what I could get for it if I sold. Obviously there is typically more upfront costs; but I’m really only through round 1 of repairs/updates over the course of ownership. I keep track of rents in my general area to get a ballpark for comparison. My gut tells me it might end up being closer than some think.

As much as I want to add a bit here, I'm pretty much at a full position in my Roth (plus I'm out of cash!)

Big move for you no? Wasn't BRK your largest position?

Would bet my life savings this guy has a failed substack

Looking more and more like this will not be that big of a deal. No sign of it grounding any jets so far which is a big hurdle. Looking like an extra safety check on a few hundred engines (consider there are thousands of engines in operation).

It's tempting for sure, but who knows how long this will linger

Very nice, that's some solid distance. I've been too lazy to setup a Strava account. Just using the base metrics on my Garmin for now. Typically only run 2-3 days a week as I primarily lift or do CrossFit.