nwoodman

6758.T Sony Co + 7974.T Nintendo

All good, I think you touched on the key point and that is control. After all Odyssey isn’t wholly owned either

I think you will find the equities are held at the sub level. This is also the case with Berkshire. It will be the same for Digit. Take Eurobank for example (from Perlexity): Several subsidiaries of Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited own shares in Eurobank Ergasias S.A., a major Greek bank. According to the search results: Zenith Insurance, Odyssey Reinsurance Company, TIG Insurance Company, United States Fire Insurance Company, First Capital Insurance Limited, TIG Insurance (Barbados) Limited, Advent Capital (Holdings) Ltd., Falcon Insurance Company (Hong Kong) Limited, Brit Insurance (Gibraltar) PCC Limited, Advent Capital (No. 3) Ltd., Newline Insurance Company Limited, Newline Corporate Name Limited, and Fairfax Financial Holdings Master Trust Fund have all acquired shares in Eurobank over the years. For example, in December 2017, Zenith Insurance acquired 2,335,000 shares, Odyssey Reinsurance Company acquired 5,837,500 shares, TIG Insurance Company acquired 1,167,500 shares, and United States Fire Insurance Company acquired 2,335,000 shares in Eurobank. A slightly more interesting question is where are the investment ideas going to originate? Ultimately HWIC would sign off I would think.

Udio https://www.udio.com This is a hoot. The kids and I have been taking this for a spin. The ability to come up with lyrics for inputs such “Midget goats who like ice cream” - rock, “Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme”-punk, “Recipe for a soufflé”-hip hop. The music is actually pretty good and the lyric and title generation had us in stitches. Highly recommend, especially if you liked Spinal Tap

Thanks @Viking. There seems an inevitability that Eurobank pushes beyond the $3bn mark. It feels like yesterday that the whole of FFH could be bought for $10 bn. Unreal. A reminder Eurobank reports Thursday 16th May https://www.eurobankholdings.gr/en/grafeio-tupou/etairiki-anakoinosi-29-04-24

Thanks that seems to work. I might try some further back testing when I have a spare moment. Now that these entities are making decent money it's a bit more important to understand any timing differences

I actually thought it was on the current quarter. Hadn’t got as far as reconciling the numbers across to Fairfax to check.

Thanks for this. Summary in the ATCO thread https://thecobf.com/forum/topic/1691-atco-atlas-corp/?do=findComment&comment=563864

No problems I would just love to know where

@SafetyinNumbers. That's quite interesting. To be honest as as much as I would like the sugar hit to book I would much prefer them to have a stellar IPO record in India i.e stag and long term. Let Recipe, Farmers Edge and the like never be repeated. You get it right in India in terms of raising capital and delivering and you have a Lollapalooza. Edit: Anchorage being next

OK, so absolutely nothing offical to fill in the black dots. All I needed to know.

“Go Digit IPO sets Rs 258-272 per share price band; bids open on May https://www.business-standard.com/markets/ipo/go-digit-ipo-sets-rs-258-272-per-share-price-band-bids-open-on-may-15-124051000481_1.html No problems if that is the case but where are they getting that number from? The only thing that is official has that number blanked out

The point is where is the media getting their spread in terms of their pricing from now?

We must be on different planets or operating systems. Screen shot and post if you are actually seeing what they are reporting. Spoon feed me!

I get that, where is the actual prospectus that these articles are referring to? I guess this is the first Indian IPO I have ever actually been interested in and it is bizarre.

Cheers, there is also a similar positive feedback loop that facilitates share buybacks via the TRS. It’s a fascinating set up.My view is that IV is signalled when they close out the TRS and apologies for stating the obvious.

I see the price band being reported at 258-272 rupees. I have searched through the red herring prospectus any reference to this price band is just a black circle. Not sure if there is something funky going on with my pdf reader. Can someone screen shot and upload a document that actually shows the floor and cap price as reported. Thanks in advance

It does but the good news is we are about to find out . If this goes full fintech then I would expect at least a $3.5bn market cap (4x’sGWP). Their 68% gets marked at $2.4bn. Your guess is as good as mine though. The only thing I can say with reasonable confidence is that Digit is likely to be worth a lot more than the current carrying value in 10 years time Key Dates: 1. Bid/Offer Opening Date: Wednesday, May 15, 2024 2. Bid/Offer Closing Date: Friday, May 17, 2024 3. Finalisation of Basis of Allotment: On or about Tuesday, May 21, 2024 4. Initiation of Refunds/Unblocking of Funds: On or about Wednesday, May 22, 2024 5. Credit of Equity Shares to Depository Accounts: On or about Wednesday, May 22, 2024 6. Commencement of Trading on the Stock Exchanges: On or about Thursday, May 23, 2024 .

@Haryana Good stuff!

Double points for a link either on the Digit Website, SEBI or the BSE/NSE to the IPO. I had a quick look but no joy from my quick search

Yep, hard to believe they squared away ~0.65% outstanding in April. They REALLY liked it <$CAD1500 https://ceo.ca/api/sedi/?symbol=FFH&amount=&transaction=&insider= Shares outstanding as of March 31, 2024 Buyback percentage = 151,625 ÷ 22,974,000 = 0.66%

Cheers, big news if true. Here is the source

@Cigarbutt thanks for the heads up. On a sub level the RBC ratio is a lot lower than what I was calculating for the whole shooting match. It might be possible to calibrate using Note 19: Statutory Requirement, that Jen referred to as dividend capacity and assume that is based off an RBC ratio of 300%. Or perhaps it is as simple as seeing the total in Note 19 as the starting point in terms of the capital that could be reallocated as it is truly surplus if it can be dividended and the max is then some conservative multiple. Will have a read and a think. The relevant section of Note 22: Financial Risk Management, you were referring to is reproduced from the AR below: In the United States, the National Association of Insurance Commissioners ("NAIC") applies a model law and risk-based capital ("RBC") formula designed to help regulators identify property and casualty insurers that may be inadequately capitalized. Under the NAIC's requirements, an insurer must maintain total capital and surplus above a calculated threshold or face varying levels of regulatory action. The threshold is based on a formula that attempts to quantify the risk of a company's insurance and reinsurance, investment and other business activities. At December 31, 2023 Odyssey Group, Crum & Forster, Zenith National, Allied World and U.S. Run-off subsidiaries had capital and surplus that met or exceeded the regulatory minimum requirement of two times the authorized control level; each subsidiary had capital and surplus of at least 3.2 times (December 31, 2022 - 3.0 times) the authorized control level, except for TIG Insurance which had at least 2.0 times (December 31, 2022 - 2.0 times). In Bermuda, insurance and reinsurance companies are regulated by the Bermuda Monetary Authority and are subject to the statutory requirements of the Bermuda Insurance Act 1978. There is a requirement to hold available statutory economic capital and surplus equal to or in excess of an enhanced capital and target capital level as determined under the Bermuda Solvency Capital Requirement model. The target capital level is measured as 120% of the enhanced capital requirements. At December 31, 2023 and 2022 Allied World's subsidiary was in compliance with Bermuda's regulatory requirements. In Canada, property and casualty companies are regulated by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions on the basis of a minimum supervisory target of 150% of a minimum capital test ("MCT") formula. At December 31, 2023 Northbridge's subsidiaries had a weighted average MCT ratio of 255% (December 31, 2022 - 241% of the minimum supervisory target. Brit is subject to the solvency and regulatory capital requirements of the Prudential Regulatory Authority in the U.K. for its Lloyd's business and the Bermuda Monetary Authority for its Bermudan business. The management capital requirements for Brit are set using an internal model based on the prevailing regulatory framework in these jurisdictions. At December 31, 2023 Brit's total capital consisted of net tangible assets (total assets less any intangible assets and all liabilities), subordinated debt and contingent funding from its revolving credit facility and amounted to $2,545.7 (December 31, 2022 - $2,052.7). This represented a surplus of $1,050.4 (December 31, 2022 - $709.5) over Brit's management capital requirements. Gulf Insurance is governed by the local capital adequacy regulations issued by the Insurance Regulatory Unit ("IRU") in the State of Kuwait. At December 31, 2023 Gulf Insurance had Regulatory Solvency Capital of 998% of the minimum capital required. In countries other than the U.S., Bermuda, Canada, the U.K. and Kuwait where the company operates, the company met or exceeded the applicable regulatory capital requirements at December 31, 2023 and 2022.

All good, it was definitely worth a try. After thinking about it today I am not sure why it is such a secret. It strikes me anyone in the business probably has access to the weightings so could run the numbers on each other. There obviously comes a time though where you need to do a little convincing of the regulators about the “true” risk weightings and perhaps that is where things get a little more complicated and hence privacy is key.. The exercise at least gave me some insight into the process and a range of capacity. My conclusion, and I think we all knew it anyway, is that IDBI at $7-8bn is a stretch even for Fairfax (let alone FIH) and they will need to pull in some partners. Even if it turns out to be ~60% its is still a lot (30% government 30% Life Insurance Corporation) Can they grow into it in 2-3 years, at a 60% stake of $4-5bn, I think very easily. Is it the wrong time/price to do it? Not sure, but a lot easier to digest now than 2 years ago. If they can get a deferred or staggered settlement (free option) then it looks even better. All speculation of course, but as usual they appear to have been skating towards the puck in terms of their balance sheet. If not IDBI, then the number you intuitively threw out there for equities in general, iwas decent guesstimate based on my fumblings

@Cigarbutt laws of diminishing returns but I took one last look at this from an RBC perspective. I split bonds into first mortgages and treasuries based on the CC. The RBC weightings are important and I simply don’t have a way of checking them. Assuming the following I get a very healthy RBC ratio of 627% currently and if I run that down to a still conservative 400% then I get an answer of $7.4bn that could go from treasuries to equities. I think the answer lies somewhere in that range $2bn-$7bn. So perhaps the analyst is roughly right at $4bn. The reason I am also interested is Fairfax’s capacity to fund some or all of IDBI if that comes to pass. Thanks for your help