Saluki

Bought a few shares of BYDDY to study it and add slowly as I go. Got a couple of small fills on POWWP (cumulative preferreds). I have some resting bids on it, and it's not very liquid. One day I got a fill for ONE share .Got a few shares of a nano-cap defense contractor that I am studying, but I don't want to name it because it's tiny.

Even if they want to separate, that doesn't mean they want to be part of the US. Greenland doesn't want to be part of Denmark. They want independence, not to be part of the US. Quebec voted in a referendum to leave Canada, but they won't join the US. If Alaska seceded (or California), do you think they would keep the oil (or tech) riches for themselves or decide to be part of Canada?

Since I stopped working in January, "a few shares" is a lot less than it was before, but in the past week I bought a few shares of BYDDY and will probably nibble at it slowly. I think with Tesla suffering and the Chinese government telling the big 3 domestic EV makers that they don't want a price war, the margin pressure will let up, and it's trading a rich price for a car company like GM, but a decent price compared to Tesla, and it's got better battery tech and hasn't entered the biggest EV market (USA) yet, so it's got room to grow. Added a few shares to very some very small cap stuff (like $100mm and below), namely Virtra, OPTEX and PETS. A few shares of a small defense co and a small software co (like below $30mm) but I still have some resting bids out so I don't want to name them but if you even breathe on the ticker the price moves I've also been toying with some tax efficient (for me) buying and selling. STNG is down way too much, but I was reluctant to sell last year and pay even more taxes, but now that it's $40 instead of $80 and I think it will come back, I sold some shares in my taxable account (long term gains) and bought the same amount in my IRA, so if it comes back soon, the next gains are tax free. I did the opposite with a few shares of ISSC which were up 50% in a few months. Sold the small position in my IRA and bought it in my taxable account, so I lock in the quick 50% gain, still let the position ride in my taxable account, but can sell and take a loss if it goes the other way.

I don't know anything about him, was just curious about the selection process. To be fair, I googled another conference after that one and it was also free for investors but $18k for presenters I was curious because a pre-revenue company that I was looking at presented at both (and a few others). Not a great way to spend investors money if you don't have sales, IMHO.

I saw this video a few months back and it was pretty eye opening. I always assumed that when I saw people hyping too much that they were dumb people talking up their book or pump and dumpers. I didn't realize how lucrative it was to just shill for fun and profit. I'm not going to mention the YouTuber because I'm trying to follow Buffett's advice of praising by name and criticizing by category, but I was discussing this guy who made a 122 videos for a company called Voxtur, and now that it's involved in a lawsuit where his name comes up (not as a defendant), looks like he's adding a disclosure on his videos now: "The company has paid finder’s fees and advisory fees of CAD 1,417,927.52 in cash to [YouTuber] " And he did 44 videos for a junior miner called Orocco: Finder’s fees of $6,000 are to be paid to [NAME] Capital and 575,000 finder’s fee warrants issued to [Youtuber]

Besides Alico, I've heard of Itafos. It's the type of commodity sh1tco that I tell myself to keep away from but sometimes get tempted. They have a potash thing in Iowa or Idaho, I think, and I hear about it because Intrepid Potash is a trading sardine for me. Both have doubled in the past year because of Trump Canada tariffs, but they also had huge spikes during the Ukraine conflict. But there is no shortage of Potash, just geopolitical spikes now and then. PETS is also presenting tomorrow. I have a very small position and a couple of options. Earnings are out today after the close and I don't think it can get beaten down further, and a couple of quarters ago it had a 40% pop after earnings that it gave up quickly, so might be a good trading sardine too.

Lots of microcap names presenting today and tomorrow. It's free to watch on Zoom with the link below. https://sidoti.meetmax.com/sched/event_121351/conference_presentations.html?bank_access=0&event_id=121351 I've always wondered why the signal to noise ratio is so low at conferences like this. This one is free to listen, but $6k if you want to present I assume the other microcap stuff is a similar business model.

I'll be in Europe in a couple of Weeks. Flying into Paris, then seeing some of the Baltics. Riga, Helsinki, Tallin. If anyone is one of those cities, message me. Cheers.

I saw a company with cool tech (and no sales) and I decided to look at some competitors to see if it was worth putting on the watch list. I don't know if anyone knows about Graphene companies, but there are several ways to make it, from literally peeling it off pencils with Scotch Tape to methods that inolve heat that is the temparature of a star. The problem seems to be that no matter how you make it, it's not profitable. I thought scale was the problem, but this is the largest producer, and it's not profitable: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NNXPF/ All the competitors that are smaller aren't profitable either. They all have pitch decks which talk about TAM, but I'm not convinced. Sure, it can make cement 20% stronger (so you need less of it, which is great for the environment), but if it's too expensive, then it's not going to be used. The companies using the Chemical Vapor Deposition method, apparently use stuff like Methane and when they burn it off at extremely high temps, you can get the Hydrogen out and you are left with the carbon, which can get you to Graphene, but not a lot. Most of these methods get you to 10-50% Graphene. If you could get something that is closer to 100%, using a different hydrocarbon, that sounds great. But the hydrocarbon is more expensive. And I don't see these companies talking about their cost per tonne, just the TAM So my question isn't about the science, but the sales. Does anyone know about customers who are actually buying this for industrial processes, and how much they are paying for it? Does it matter to them which process their supplier uses to make it (because it has different properties), or are they just interested in price? It looks like military contractors and battery guys like this to experiment with, but is there a widespread commercial product that uses this stuff and who is the customer producing the product?

This guy mentions a stock discussed at ValueX, which he won't name. Reading between the lines, I think he's talking about Watches of Switzerland, the UK company that makes Rolex watches. Rolex, has that weird thing where you have buy something in their lower end brand before they will deem you worthy enough to buy their marquees brand.

I'm surprised this post wasn't active today, given the drone attack that wiped out a big chunk of Russia's air force in one day, all with drones. For some reason TAYD was down today, and I added a small amount. Putting on my thinking hat, if you were to try to prevent this, companies like DroneShield or Raytheon which have jamming tech might be more attractive for the military going forward to prevent this type of guerilla asymmetrical attacks. The first company isn't profitable, and RTX makes too much other stuff for it to move the needle though. And also, it seems like a treadmill. You make jamming stuff, they make stuff that overcomes the jamming, then they make the jamming better. Also, as AI gets better, you might not need remote operation that can be jammed with signals. You can just lauch a swarm from a mobile vehicle and they have rudimentary AI that says "this is a plane...fly into it" and let the camera do the reset. You don't need a lot of memory for that.

I think the bump will be temporary. There is anecdotal info out there that some insurance company is using it for claims processing and that the AI can look at the photos of car damage and come up with a price and have a letter ready in minutes, with no people involved. Okay...then what? Let's say Progressive used it and has a huge cost advantage vs it's competition. Then GEICO and State Farm get it. And cut costs too. The margin vs competitors stays the same but consumers win by getting lower prices. But insurance companies might lose because less money from premiums means less float for investment. Margins could get even lower too. What if instead of calling around you can have AI analyze your driving habits and speed, quick stops from your cell phone motion data and find you the best price? I think AI plays like Google can be huge if they move from SaaS pricing to some kind of auction driven or other model to capture the gains. When mining in the UK started using coal powered engines, they were very costly and the machine owners didn't sell them or rent them, but charged a price that lower the labor it replaced. It was most popular in the places where labor costs were highest, so I see it (for now) taking hold in places like the US white colar industry rather than places like India where we outsource our labor to, because it's cheaper there so the savings will be less. In China, which makes farm machinery, they still have people farming by hand in rural areas because labor is so cheap that a machine is not worth investing in.

I half of my TAYD starting at the end of last year, which was good timing. Picked up a few shares today. Bought a few ITM SWBI calls yesterday and today that expire in 2027.

Bought a few call options on PETS. If it has a good quarter it might spike upwards the same day like it has in the past, and if it has a mediocre quarter, the price is already beaten down so much that it's probably an okay lottery ticket. I have a few shares of the common at average cost of a little under $5 to keep an eye on it. It's $3.75 now, so the common looks cheap if they can remain profitable for a few quarters and sell themselves to someone bigger, but if not that cash pile is a melting ice cube, which is what keeps me from buying more of the common.

SRG preferred is not really worth the risk. You might get a little bump if they liquidate and there is enough to cash you out at par, but that is still not 100% certain and a lot of risk for 7%. Check out POWWP and LFMDP. Both issues are callable next year, and you are getting 9% (sometimes 10% if you buy on a good day) with profitable companies that will want to pay par since they are doing well and can get cheaper access to capital. I have some EPD and ET, mentioned here and I also own a little SFL, which pays a big dividend 11-12% and is structured to buy ships and lease them long term (Like Aercap), instead of playing in the spot market. It's price is down a lot because of some uncertainty over a floating platform that is waiting for a new contract, but if that gets settled, the stock price should go back to it's normal trading range. I have a medium positions in BTI and PM too. BTI I got lucky and started buying at $30. If it didn't have a dividend, I might sell, but by holding it I don't pay the taxes and I get paid a decent amount that I can invest elsewhere. Plus, if you are going risk off, tobacco is not a bad place to be in a downturn.

I bought a little POWWP between $20-22 and it was trading almost at par ($24.75) yesterday. I was tempted to sell it, but I think it will get redeemed this time next year, so getting 9% while I wait doesn't sound terrible in this environment. I owned a little LFMD common and sold for a small profit after the FDA Ozempic news started to make it give up some gains, and it recovered afterwards (of course), but I should've bought their preferred also, which might get redeemed in a year too since they are now profitable. The preferreds were also a little over $20 in the past year, but are now around par (still with a nice dividend though), but I'd rather buy at a discount. The common rebounded, but I don't think it was a big mistake to sell because the weight loss stuff was a huge part of their growth. But not switching to the preferred when it was trading at a discount was an oversight. By contrast Seritage preferreds are almost $22 now, but only a 7.7% dividend at this price and you probably won't get redeemed, but will have to wait for the business to wind down and hope there is enough meat on the bone to pay you the liquidation preference. And it's not a preferred share, but I bought a little SFL which has a nice yield, and has been beaten down so much this year that I think the bad news is already priced in. Anyone looking at other cumulative preferred that are trading at a nice discount to par? Care to name them?

Just out of curiosity @CafeB, did you buy the preferred? I noticed that MIND preferred were converted to common, which made people dump the shares because they wanted the dividend, so I'm wondering if the preferred was converted by shareholder vote, or if it was cheap because there some provision in it that allowed management to convert the preferred to common instead of redeeming them at par.

Small nibbles to JOE, SFL, and Virtra.

Interesting piece about Anduril's fighter drones. Shame it's not a public company.

Thanks. I refuse to use Twitter, or click on links to it because I don't want Elon to get the ad traffic

My understanding is that the Basel III changes made it harder, in terms of net capital charges, for banks to lend for stuff like ships (and I assume that includes offshore stuff), which is why a lot of the financing shifted to sovereign wealth funds. It could be that if we see another new build cycle, it might be political rather than ecomonical. Maybe someone who wants to provide the numerous jobs that shipbuilding entails, like China, will overbuild with attractive financial terms, to keep employment up for their country, even if it isn't great for the industry.

This is a weird one. Burry sold everything and deployed a small amount into Estee Lauder. What is he doing with the rest? Is it macro call? https://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=SAM

I see a LOT of YouTube ads lately for Phoenix Energy, which is apparenty an E&P company in the Williston basin that is not publicly traded, and is trying to sell bonds to investors. It's limited to accredited investors, but how does Youtube (as opposed to Facebook) have any idea of my net worth? It seems like they are just casting as wide a net as possible to get people to lend them cash, err I mean invest with them. https://financefeeds.com/are-phoenix-energy-bonds-right-for-your-portfolio/?ekit-blog-posts-paged=2 Is this a clever marketing idea that no one has tried, or is the oil price decline predicted to stay low for longer than people are letting on such that the operators can't get people to lend them money and are turning to YouTube as a sales funnel? If this method is cheaper than using an underwriter, then why don't other people do it too? Feels weird, and their website says you can invest your IRA with them, which sounds like a red flag.

I don't want to be a hater, but this guy always makes my BS detector go off. Claims he was taught by a trader (who like the Rich Dad, Poor Dad, he won't name) and turned $1k into a few million. Runs "free" trading courses to upsell you into paid programs, which feels like Trump University. Constantly invokes "Charlie and Warren" as if he hangs out with them and swaps ideas. Maybe I'm the one who doesn't get it, but why do people listen to this guy? Someone like Howard Marks is much charismatic and polished as a speaker, but it's clear that he's smart and is thinking carefully about a difficult topic. As with other gurus, when I hear this guy talking I don't think that there any there there.

Small nibbles to JOE and VG.