lnofeisone

While I find @flesh's prose a bit logorrheic, I don't think anyone would disagree with having an efficient government that minimizes or eliminates fraud, waste, and abuse and maintains a healthy budget. The crux of the argument here is the HOW. How are Elon and DT going about fixing the gov't. There are laws and processes and they disregard both. So far the savings amounted to fractions of what they claim and their actions are being reversed (https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-civil-service-board-reinstates-thousands-fired-usda-employees-2025-03-05/) which basically amounts to added cost (workers were out 2 weeks doing 0 work, they will get backpay, and now they have to get reprocessed back in, which is extra work). Add in republicans threatening to impeach judges they don't like and the DOJ, on behalf of OPM, straight up lying to the court (and the DOJ got rightfully called out by the union and scolded by the judge); there is a lot not to like about the approach of the current administration. Given that Musk is running DOGE with the blessing of DT, this is 100% on him.

Add a bit of a broader context here about US population: 32% identifies as republican. 15% are center, lean republican. 33% are democrats 16% are center lean democrat 51% of viewers identified as republican. 27% of viewers identified as independents 20% of viewers identified as democrats Do you see the sampling problem or do you need me to walk you through how this poll was mostly republican current view of Trump?

I know several LB&I Revenue Agents who were let go. All hyper-talented folks from the likes of PWC, Deloitte, BDO. Some handled tax accounts for the stocks we discusson this board. This means that tax issues won't get solved as fast and since most corporate taxpayers tend to pre-pay while debating issues, this is capital tied up at 6% (IRS will pay interest) while taxes are being resolved. Doesn't take much to figure out that a $1.5M tax issue delayed a year just cost corporate tax payer (and ergo shareholders) the salary of a revenue agent. Just to give you a feel for the magnitude of LB&I issues, Coca-Cola paid $6B in back taxes while waiting for the judge's decision. But sure, our outlier president can claim he saved $150k cutting a revenue agent while costing shareholders tens of millions in opportunity cost. https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2024-08-05/coca-cola-to-pay-6-billion-in-irs-back-taxes-case-while-appealing-judges-decision

Gov't processes aren't synched like that. Something is happening every single month (for example, Gov't FY starts on Oct 1st), so there is no excellent transition month that won't set off fireworks. Especially when fireworks are poorly thought out and largely illegal. Speaking of our outlier leader, he just crossed favorable/unfavorable (very much entering unfavorable). Even Joe Biden took 9 months to get to this point. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/

Part of the IRS handling the filing season isn't getting hit. That's the IT bunch. The compliance and enforcement are getting gutted. Those are the revenue agents focusing on large businesses and international and just broad compliance programs.

When I was growing up, we were section 8 in NYCHA. Incidentally, I grew up in the same projects Howard Schultz grew up in, though they took a turn for the worse from when he was there. I know exactly what you are speaking of in terms of drugs, criminal activity, etc. and how hard it can be to get out. Part of the reason why I would never want to deal with section 8 housing. People that do are just built different.

This is one of those things journalists didn't do a good job at. Ontario doesn't have the legal authority to impose tariffs, but they have the legal authority to put a surcharge on exports. The effect is the same. Bloomberg does a good job discerning this nuance in the article but not in the link header. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-04/ontario-to-impose-tariffs-on-power-to-three-us-states-wsj-says?embedded-checkout=true

JAVA MAN is based out of DFW and all people are getting laid off are in TX. ABT's USAID is mostly DC but NOAA (Seattle) and CDC (Atlanta) are not. DAI furloughed 400 or so but they are calling some back as they reposition them. Most majors are preparing. Few contracts got hit already and some additional contracts are being offered to the DOGE as sacrificial lambs. There is a scramble to reposition people. Especially technical people. Incidentally, DOGE is killing off small business contractors that offered an insanely competitive price and were major PITAs for the big firms.

I don't do section 8 because of the headaches that come with it, but I have heard anecdotes that fire code violation and limited water pressure to accommodate individuals beyond what's in the lease can be used as a way to evict tenants. That's in DC which a lot of people purport to be a tenant friendly local.

We hurt the ones we love the most. I'm going with grandma over MIL.

One of several reasons why they couldn't produce it is because there are a bunch of people in that database that were born 100+ years ago but there was little or no documentation of their birth or death. So SSA knows these people exist because they worked and paid SS, but they don't have exact birthdates or the documents of their deaths haven't been submitted. It's somewhat recent that death documentation gets sent to SSA (coroners, hospitals, credit card companies are now required to do so). So database has these people but they don't get any checks sent to them. Sure, there might be some grandma stuck in a freezer somewhere and her grandson is collecting her checks but that's not really gov't's fraud, waste, and abuse.

Yeah, this is has been so thoroughly debunked. Turns out SSA was aware of this (not shocking) and chose the smart thing to do, which was to allow the system reach its end of life instead of spending ridiculous amounts to modernize it. Oh, and DOGE and Elon couldn't produce numbers that included people who were over 100, dead, and receiving payments. A straightforward query.

Here we go - https://federalnewsnetwork.com/federal-newscast/2025/03/national-science-foundation-rehires-half-of-employees-fired-two-weeks-ago/ NSF is now bringing back workers who were illegally let go. They will also be getting back pay, and I suspect there will be lawsuit compensation for them in the future. If only this admin had followed the process and done it the right way, as most of the HR departments had told them to do. Talk about waste and abuse. Throw in DOJ lying to courts on OPM's behalf and you have fraud.

Word on the street DOGE is looking for a 75% cut for all non-essential and non-mission-critical contracts. DEI, etc. 100% cut. The top 10 (and many others) are looking for sacrificial lambs (contracts) to surrender. BAH is in a particularly uncomfortable spot. Some also tried pitching services to DOGE at commercial rates (those are about 3x what Gov't rates would be). The Government taketh with left hand and giveth with right hand.

Finally, we agree on something! Though I'm pretty sure it's because you didn't read the whole thing...thanks for an awesome setup @Saluki.

Ok, understood. You are just spitballing your intuition that may or may not be grounded in any sense of reality.

I live in Washington, DC. I'm not a Washington insider by any stretch. But don't change the subject. You claimed that these workers are already on the payroll. Do you have evidence of this, or would you like to walk back your statement? It's really that simple.

So you don't have facts you can point to that disgruntled federal workers are already on the payroll? I just want to be clear here.

Is this another one of your conjectures or you have facts you can point to?

In completely unshocking news - https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/28/politics/us-intel-russia-china-attempt-recruit-disgruntled-federal-employees? Congratulations. We played ourselves.

Yes, I read his work including principles, which I don't recommend. Current GDP - 30T, assume 3% growth Government collected funds - 5T Effective tax rate - 16% Government spending - 7T Cutting spending 10% - 700B If you fix spending and say no more. In 4 years, you'll offset your $700B. If you drive the economy into contraction, things get mighty ugly if you try to do cuts or raise tax, but I guess you will get the interest reduction when that interest rate goes down. So how much do you have to reduce interest to get to $700B?

LOL I'm very far from Gov't employee. Sh***y policies from parties impact my business. I'm sorry Biden hurt you. Doesn't mean the rest of the country needs to be brought down to make you feel better.

Crazy idea...grow the GDP. Now re-read what you posted with that in mind.

What a terrible analogy. What's happening now is more like someone going outside, grabbing 20 random people, and subjecting them to chemotherapy. Do they all need chemo? No. But as some on the board would say - we can fess up to errors and unplug the chemo. Is weaponizing Gov't agencies OK by you? Don't you think Dems will ever win WH/Congress and eventually SCOTUS? Be careful what you wish for.

I want a planned (predictable), methodical approach that demonstrates results. Not gloating with numbers that turn out to be off by 99.9%. Put another way, he has overestimated his cuts by a factor of 1,000. Pretend you have an investment and a CEO did this. Would you be long? This isn't something he is forced to do. This is a basic contract and math mistake that a rookie contracting officer could help with. Very clear that this guy is clueless about what he is reporting on the DOGE website. Very clear that he doesn't know what he is doing. I also want these "savings" to go to deficit and debt reduction. Not some idiotic $5k check to everyone. Is that too much to ask for? Clinton cut 400k Gov't employees. I can't wait for you to find something on tweeter about "bump and retreat" for federal employees. I'll let you do the math of how that will increase gov't cost.