lnofeisone

I could never understand Navalny. I've watched his evolution for the last 15 years or so (my mom is a huge supporter all the way from Brighton Beach), including a video of him alluding that people from Asian (bordering Russia) countries are cockroaches and should be shot (and then he recommends a pistol). It seems that he shared many positions with Putin and only in the last 5-10 years started to diverge, taking anti-Putin positions (e.g., being pro gray marriage). He never denounced his previous positions so feels like DIS where he perpetually pisses off both sides and nobody trusts him. My personal view is that he is a populist and will say anything to stay relevant. His strongest points are that 1) he isn't Putin and 2) he's pissed off Putin so odds are he is doing something right. Neither are enough to convince me that he is a good guy.

Topped off ibonds for the whole family.

Another binary trade. Vertex Energy - the company is doing 100% pivot from used motor oil refining to being a refinery producing renewable diesel. Shell is trying to become green and is selling an enormously profitable refinery in Mobile, Alabama. What does it mean for VTNR: -Revenue today is 120M or so and it will go to about (VTNR-guided) 2.5B (you are reading this correctly) and 200M in gross profit for FY22. They just closed the purchase of the refinery. -They are guiding to 3.5B in revenue and 400M gross profit for FY23 -They have offtake and supply agreements signed -EV is about 700M once accounted for all new debt -There is a 30% short interest in the stock Options are insanely priced but 10/17.5 2023 vertical spread will cost you 1.10. Some references: https://www.accesswire.com/671855/Vertex-Energy-Reports-Third-Quarter-2021-Results-and-Provides-Strategic-Update

Adding VET and CPNG. Started VTNR.

Scary to think that these guys Putin's advisors and the damage that they can inflict as a result.

Interesting read - https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/ukraine/2022/04/russia-cannot-afford-to-lose-so-we-need-a-kind-of-a-victory-sergey-karaganov-on-what-putin-wants Aformer presidential adviser to both Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin, Sergey Karaganov is honorary chair of the Moscow think tank the Council for Foreign and Defence Policy. He is associated with a number of key ideas in Russian foreign policy, from the so-called Karaganov doctrine on the rights of ethnic Russians living abroad to the principle of “constructive destruction”, also known as the “Putin doctrine”. Karaganov is close to both Putin and his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, and he formulated many of the ideas that led to the war in Ukraine – though he has also expressed disagreement with the idea of a long-term occupation of the country.

Lots of layers on this onion. If he is charged as a war criminal, there will be an arrest warrant for him and Putin would need to be brought to Hague as ICC doesn't try in abstentia. Why do it: It removes his next step if he were to lose or give up his power. His choice of where to go into exile (or even travel) will diminish substantially. This is tricky as it incentivizes Putin to stay in power. Why avoid it: 1) Arresting the leader of a nuclear power is unpredictable and can get violent. Is the world ready for that? 2) Not everyone tried by the ICC was found guilty. Imagine the signal to the world should he be found not guilty. Neither Russia nor Ukraine are members of the ICC. Ukraine will probably consent to ICC's jurisdiction but Russia doesn't have to recognize ICC tribunal or cooperate (which they won't as long as Putin is in power). Long way of saying, this will be long and messy and results are far from guaranteed.

Validated. The twitter translation is on point as well. Few thing to note about the article - it's an OpEd. The author - Timofei Sergeytsev - is a blend of a Tucker Carlson and a political consultant (that lead political campaigns for Russian politicians). He is a known Russian nationalist who sees everything as Russophobia and an ardent anti-Ukrainian. He wrote a movie - which has a feel of a pro-Russian propaganda - called "Match" that depicted Ukrainians in a particularly terrible light (making them out to be responsible for Baby Yar, etc.).

Bought starters in WE and INDI.

This. Also, baltics are a large electricity and oil importers (from Russia). It will be a while before Europe can really wean itself off Russian energy.

Latvia has a storage facility that has 2 years worth of gas for just Latvia (and around 1 year worth of gas for all of the baltic states). As long as they can secure regular shipments of LNG, they will be OK. There is also a bi-directional pipeline between Poland and Latvia (GIPL) so they can always get Polish (Russian) gas in the event of a disruption. But to put it in perspective, 3 Baltic states combined consume 15 BCM per year. Europe's total consumption is 400 BCM. As of today, there is very little spare capacity at regassification facilities are operating near their limits. Germany has none and the earliest estimate is 2024. GLNG is a way to play this shortage. EQNR will continue to be a winner here.

Little bit of a backdrop here: Ukraine doesn't buy Russian gas from Russia. They are buying it from Poland and Slovakia. Still Russian gas though. The pipeline in question - Yamal - is the primary feeder that ultimately goes back to Ukraine. This pipeline has been shutting down since 3/8. Russia claimed technical difficulties. The remaining pipelines into Europe are doing just fine. For now.

Bringing this back a bit now that SPAC-mania died down. Anyone looking at companies that got merged. Looking at Cano Health and Indie Semiconductor (EV/auto-tech) plays.

I also thought it was pro-russian troops from Donbass but 0:34 they are saying how they were surrounded in Sumy. Russian troops encricled Sumy but not the other way around. Very confusing video and hard to prove authenticity.

SD - are you expecting Russia to regroup and resume the assault or kind of keep it status quo? I'm positioned for the former.

the whole video is inconsistent but these are not likely Russian conscripts. They sound more like pro-ukrainian troops from Donbass. They are complaining about being on the Russian territory. Few inconsistencies: 1) Accents of several speakers match up closer to ukrainian (ukranians roll certain letters) 2) The content of what they are saying around 0:58 which is not transcribed, it sounds like "return us to Donbass" 3) The video is confusing. At first they say "we are soldiers" but then they say "we are ordinary civilians, coal miners, factory workers, and students." 4) Around minute 1:06, they are saying that they are facing GRADs, artillery, mortar shells. Those are russian weapons so doesn't match up that russian conscripts would be fighting their own. 5) 119th brigade of russian troops involved in ukranian theater is the Iskander missile brigade. People in the video don't look the part. Most videos of the conflict show relatively well armed Russian infantry (take a look at the video of them doing house to house search, etc.). I've seen this video in few different segments now. Really shows that Ukraine is controlling the narrative and winning the info war.

Bought a starter in CPNG and some TELL (0.5% of portfolio). Tellurian is a highly speculative, most likely binary, energy play. They have all the permits to start an LNG plant (driftwood) but have no funding to get it complete. With Europe looking to diversify nat gas sources and US and EU now establishing a partnership, this is now an interesting play. Few catalysts: 1) They break the ground and start building 2) They get a bank to give them a loan (I think the odds here increased, especially in light of the news on US/EU partnership) 3) CEO is a former co-founder of LNG so knows the game but doesn't have the best of reputations (despite lawsuit dismissal)

Terrible headline. If Russia stops importing gas today, Europe can weather the winter that's already over (I guess in 2 days). The real issue is buried in the article - without Russian gas, Europe will have 10% of what they need for the winter. As far as FCF, and I'm talking my book here, VET is trading at 40% FCF with a lot of their gas hedged for the next 2 years. Their models and projections are built on prices well below where they are today. I'm expecting some fireworks come earnings time next Q.

I'm watching VXX (it's one of my go to trades when it gets nuts along with UNG and USO). Have you caught this bit - https://ipathetn.barclays/cms/static/files/ipath/press/Press Release_03_14.pdf Currently some of the divergence could be attributed to supply side limit.

Added a little to VET.

it was a lotto sized position for me that did well enough to offset my loss on the other lotto position (SBRCY) so I just banked the profit. No real opinion on what will happen with SRG in the next week.

Out of my SRG calls completely. It help up surprisingly well in the last 2 weeks.

Bought some KWEB calls. Seems like everyone is taking a beating on all things China so I may as well join the club.

@Gregmal - I caught this bit too and was trying to make sense of it. Tsingshan (the presumed org behind the short) is also a nickel producer so I think they tried to lock in prices of nickel but got a margin called because of the system set up. Definitely agree that the environment is ripe for some swan event and not every institution can afford an $8B paper loss.

DIS, JPM