lnofeisone

Say you have $100 ST gain on a $100 investment (total $200) AND you make over $518,900. Would you rather pay your ST rate of 37% ($37) or $6 (3% fee) + 0 (cap gain if your income next year falls to 0) --> say you have y to y volatile income $6 (3% fee) + 15% (LT cap gain rate)--> say you are single with income under $518,900 $6 (3% fee) + 20% (LT cap gain rate)--> say you are single and over $518,900 Again, this is packed with assumptions, but there are people for whom this makes sense.

It's reasonable for this space. You can generate savings well in excess of the fee but a lot of assumptions have to align. Like I said, I wouldn't pay for someone to do it. Most investors who know how to short equities and know how to select tax lots with their brokers can do this strategy themselves.

I don't have a point of view on Gotham, but I have worked on this issue for the IRS. At best, this tax deferral strategy can give you access to funds now. You'll pay the tax once you unwind the entire portfolio. So it may make sense in some cases (say you are on the verge of retiring and will shift to lower tax bracket in few years but need funds now). 1.85% is a relatively reasonable fee. PGIM charges 3%. Personally, I wouldn't pay for this because you can do it yourself.

I opportunistically short UNG. Usually my set up is simple. Nat gas needs to be in backwardation, run up 30-40% from the lows (first short tranche) or 100% from the lows (second short tranche), and UNG needs to start rolling its contracts (which they started yesterday). I hold the short for about a week (sometimes longer if it runs away) because that's roughly how long it takes for UNG to sell its front-month and reload on future months. If all 3 things are true, I have a good betting average on these shorts. Incidentally, this trade worked out faster than I thought so I closed most of the position.

Shorted some UNG calls.

I have 10 mo old and a 3 yo. 1) Take as much time as you can afford. 15 months is amazing. My firm allowed 16 weeks. I took full 16. Both times. 2) Hire help. The first few weeks/months are insane. You will be continuously overloaded by a mixture of learning new things, anxiety, and fear of screwing up constantly fueled by the lack of sleep. We offloaded most of the laundry, cooking, and cleaning and still were busy. 3) Events, daycare, etc., get booked very fast. Put yourself on the waiting lists. Our daycare waitlist was 1.5 years long. If you are in the US: 1) Your work may offer a bunch of plans. HSA, Childcare FSA. Optimize that. 2) 529. Make sure you do it through your state so that you can get state benefits and then you can move to Vanguard for lower fees. You can also convert some of your 529 to Roth after 15 years. After that, enjoy the ride.

Yep, but no shares and options carried insanely rich premium.

This is what I think as well. While SLG and VNO popped, the likes of PGRE and JBGS didn't get much love. The environment for both of these markets (NY and DC, and i know PGRE has a bunch of stuff in SF) is improving with workers being mandated to go back to work. This push is becoming very real and I'm trying to discern how meaningful this will be for the valuation of these names and more importantly, how fast.

Do you have names you are looking at or picked up in April of 2023? @Gregmal - I only pulled this up because some of the organizations in the DC area I know are starting to look for additional space. Some because they let their leases lapse after the pandemic, and some just happen to outgrow existing space and just have too many people with the RTO mandate. I think the investment case here would likely be geography-specific, though I'm debating if it's worth picking up a bunch of names or something broad like Boston properties.

I couldn't find a topic, so here it goes: Office is probably the second most hated asset class behind O&G. Many companies are now pushing for a return to office (RTO). JPM is already there. Amazon is now going to RTO 5, and Bloomberg is at RTO 4. Concurrently, local governments support office rejuvenation (as most downtown areas tend to have offices). Then we have the DOGE...is it time to start picking up a basket of office names in the strongest markets (NYC, Boston, DC, SF)? I think in 2+ years, we'll see the results of this remote work reversal. I don't think we'll go to pre-covid levels but more than today and that could have meaningful impact on some of these REITs. What does the board think?

Yep. You are just a sole proprietor. Even if you sell your old stuff, you can claim a higher cost basis (just have the receipts handy), and you'll pay no tax.

This is a misconception. Just file Schedule C and you can take the loss. You don't need to set up an LLC or do anything fancy.

I collect occasional coins and currency. All as keepsakes or themes (for example, I have every USSR 1 ruble coin). Few comments: 1) Reddit is your friend. @DooDiligence gave a suggestion. There is another one if you have currency https://www.reddit.com/r/CURRENCY/. These subs do a good job policing and making sure nobody makes an offer (lowball or fair). They will also tell you if you have something unique or if you should look for something unique (a letter or a funny ridge on a coin can make a difference). 2) You may need to sift through these coins and use ebay to value them. I recommend doing by country and then time period. It's a good way to learn history too. 3) Coin grading can get expensive quick. CAC (I use them) splits them out by pre-1965 and post-1965. Rare coins get an extra premium for grading. You are looking anywhere from $15 to $1k per coin. 4) Don't clean them. Please know what you have first. Cleaning may devalue (physical or chemical). 5) There are some expensive coins but odds are not in your favor. Coin value appreciation is hard to figure out. It has elements of art market to it. You could also buy coin books, organize them, put them away as a memory.

This is a fantastic idea. Added to my list to look into.

It's ridiculous to argue that grid power will come from crude oil (though China has some electricity from oil). It's a good thing I didn't make this argument about grid power. Nice jump to conclusions there. A real ridiculous argument is to claim that China is decoupling from oil. Just about every credible projection shows China's oil (that would include gasoline, naphta, etc.) growing. Even if you remove entirely gasoline demand to make your EV argument, you only remove 25% of oil demand. And gasoline demand in China is still growing and when it starts to decline it is expected to go down by something like 3% annually if they continue their EV adoption (which I think they will if they can overcome some electricity-related challenges). And, you can't remove the gasoline demand because, as I showed you in an earlier message, China is selling a lot of plug-in hybrids that continue to use gasoline. Maybe on a good day you can argue that China is trying to double from coal with their goal to get to peak carbon by 2030. Chinese electric generation is something like 50% coal today, and it's still growing. I would like to emphasize that coal usage is growing. (Fun exercise: A typical coal plant is 33% efficient. Say your EV is 95% efficient, but your system efficiency is still 33%. It's just a tad bit higher than your ICE engine. So, for China, EVs and their efforts to get to carbon neutrality are like a cart before the horse, but, I guess, it's good to have a cart). While I'm at it, I am VERY skeptical that China will use LNG for power generation. It's more expensive than their renewables, and it's too volatile. China is fine with having oil as an import because it sees the world awash in oil, and prices are generally stable. So, in the foreseeable future, you'll see China go with wind, solar, and nuclear energy, and they have a very long way to go, replacing all the coal with renewable energy. So it'll be interesting to see the next 5 years. Either there is a breakthrough in battery tech, or China will have to break its carbon peak pledge, especially if it continues with its EV sales (which I think it will).