lnofeisone

AP, Fox, and NBC have to call the race to this contract to materialize. Statements like "leading the race" or "likely to win" is not the same as "call the race." So it doesn't make sense for this to be the reason for the odds.

I'll be the tester. I bet on Kamala on Polymarket. 2 decent bottles worth of wine that might turn into 6 just in time for Thanksgiving and New Year's. No other poll is showing her this off. This might also motivate her base to come out and vote. The r/r is there. I'll let you all know if Polymarket fails on their smart contract end of the deal.

This is so mighty impressive. Now is probably the time to take SpaceX public.

nice trade. already worked out

Glad it was helpful /EBAY. It certainly helps when stock price and timing cooperate. As far as CELH, if they tank on earnings, you are giving up the $1 of protection for a chance to make $3 if they don't tank earnings. Your call if that's a risk you can tolerate.

They are reporting around 11/5 so you have a lot of vol priced in. I'd consider selling Nov 15 or Nov 22 $35s as these will get vol crushed on earnings. You are giving up around $1 on the downside upfront, but you'll probably be able to recover $3 or so in premium if you get the opportunity to roll in December and January if the stock stays flat or runs higher.

Super clear and helpful. I'll re-read this case this weekend. Been a hot minute since I looked at it.

Interesting. I haven't heard this interpretation of this case. I always thought of the Bank || Federal Reserve relationship as similar to how I am a shareholder in Greenbay Packers. Great certificate, but absolutely no say in that team's operations.

This is why this article is so inconsistent. Say member banks own the "equity" in their district Federal Reserve, and yes, they have to provide 6% (3 in reality) of their stock + surplus, but that's independent of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and income. Losses or steep income declines have no impact on Federal Reserve shareholders. This is a long way of saying that I still don't understand the purpose of this article other than informational, "Look how cool this is!"

OpSec is very good on both Israeli and Hezb side. You can find some telegram videos beyond what IDF releases but videos are few. There are some X accounts that are trying to keep track of losses through obits and the latest count was something like 20 IDF and 400 Hezb fighters. I'm very curious because Hezb is missing a lot of very important middle management commanders and has disrupted comms network. I think you are right; it'll probably go well into 2025, but I am encouraged by the moves West is slowly pushing the likes of Joseph Aoun for the Lebanese presidency and the potential expulsion of Hezb.

The article seems to have internal inconsistencies. If fed banks can make money from thin air, they should just make some money and buy more assets with higher rates to offset what they have to pay banks. Fed banks aren't going to have run on the bank so they are sitting on MTM losses but who cares? I also don't understand what the author is trying to convey or what conclusions we should be drawing other than "Here is some cool insight into the plumbing of the financial system."

I'll post my notes in the NEP thread this weekend.

I didn't mean to quote you directly. This was more of a comment on parallels between TLN and NEP. My thesis is that NEP will benefit from the same themes TLN (and the entire utility sector)and NEP will track TLN but few years behind (and no BK, of course).

This is why I am not very worried about NEP.

I didn't do it with OXY. I did this trade with CVE.