lnofeisone

I've been trying to wrap my head around Starlink's ISP TAM. The limiting factors are how much data their satellites can relay and how receptive host countries will be to US satellites flying around. Rural makes it a natural fit. But I haven't had the time to back into their numbers just yet. And when backing into those numbers, who is the right comparable? Is it Comcast? Verizon? Charter? It can't be one of the legacy satellite providers.

VET

I threw some money on RKLB. They aren't directly competing with SpaceX (yet) and have real revenue and products. They are growing reasonably quickly, but I have a hard time assessing their TAM. At EV of 12B vs. SpaceX's 350B...worth a shot.

I, too, wonder how these downgrades work. CACI is probably the more interesting play here because roughly 30% of their revenue is up for re-compete in the next 2 years + some major deals are coming down the pipeline where they dominate. I doubt GS tracks it that close but who knows.

I like your take on mag7 to fantasy tech. I will say there are companies that have real world applications (D-wave). IBM has a great pulse on quantum world with partnerships and has made inroads with some of their clients for testing and prototype developments.

VAL Warrants and sold SWBI puts.

I own some XRP for no good reason really. But what is a basket of utility coins?

Department of State Foreign Service Officers (FSOs) are probably the best example of Gov't up or out. They really do let go of low performers. I view our gov't workforce as: 1) Mission - people that actually do the work. So think lawyers, doctors, scientists and 2) IT and enabling functions. I think there is A LOT of waste in the IT departments. This is where you have massive contractor budgets, etc. So if you are really looking for budget reductions I would start with: 1) Look at contractor budgets. Those are your CACI, IBM, Accenture, etc. 2) Look at the IT and enabling functions.

I don't think this is true at all. I worked with DOJ attorneys gearing up for trials and they put as many hours as any big law firm lawyers for fraction of the salary. I worked with a couple of scientists ans doctors at NIH and they work more than their commercial counterparts. I can same the same for most gs14 and gs15 equivalents. You may have an argument for lower gs employees but they make up a smaller $ fraction of total salary pie.

There is 0% chance he will fire 80% of gov't employees. Fed employee growth also isn't the real problem.

How is EV defined in this article? Just BEV or BEV + PHEV?

CPNG - 20% EW - 15% VET - 10% CNC/CI/HUM basket - 10% CPT/MAA/JOE basket - 10% (mostly JOE options. Selling puts around 50 and selling calls around 60 proved to be a good printer this year) V - 5% AOS - 5% ROL/RTO - 5% (rolling from ROL to RTO) MSCI - 5% NEP - 3% STNE - 3% and a bunch of small potato things.

This is correct. The current numbers are Oct 1st though end of Oct. Fun fact about this chart - Mexican nationals made up majority of the KST arrests on the northern border (and southern border) as of 2024. SE Asians are now becoming a bigger trend. Mostly because Canada has very liberal visa policies.

I remember you recommending it a year ago or so. Excellent call.

Thanks, @TB. Looks like a compelling reason to look to Israel for investing.