adventurer

speculating on a take over?

Thank you. 1. In that case insurance brokers may prove to be a decent investment during hard markets (low stock price due to lower earnings) assuming the cycle will reverse at some point in time, correct? As a simplified approach. 2. Are insurance brokers antagonistic towards insurance companies in general? Also a simplified thought: could you consider insurance brokers as a hedge against an exposure in insurance companies?

If you consider it to be true that Fairfax did undergo a transformation between 2017-2020 (with all the positives coming with it, as laid out on this board) and if you believe in the mantra that prices follow earnings you will end up with a higher share price. The buybacks, if continued meaningfully as announced a few years back by Prem, accelerate the arithmetical process of increasing EPS. To my mind the groundworks now are more in place for an increase in share price compared to all periods before (as described in "The Fairfax Way"). This of course does not include unexpected push backs such as CAT-events and so forth.

I am not too sure about the future of buybacks. Normally they should intensify the buyback with a continuously lower stock price. But during the last soft market they also went on a shopping spree buying other insurers. What stops them from doing that i/o continuing to buy back shares? What is different between then and now?

What was your thesis on Exor?

Thank you. Any chance for a link that is not behind a paywall?

You have some decent companies there and since you consider yourself to be a value investor it seems to lay in your nature to be a contrarian and to act accordingly. That includes not playing the games others are playing at times. And with Berkshire Hathaway and Fairfax you are investing with the elite of contrarians. Warren Buffets patience for opportunities is pretty much unmatched (dotcom-bubble, now). Do not give in to fomo, especially in times of these valuations that are driving up the S&P 500.

Are they allowed to get active on the buyback side after announcing Q1 results the same day or the day after? Because they would obviously take advantage of price action caused by their results they published themselves.

The dips are crazy and being the idiot I am I just realized that it would be a good opportunity to average in by using a limit speculating on these dips instead of just averaging in the moment I have the money...

Thank you. How did you end up with these conclusions? Like the abundance of intelligence causing it to be almost worthless while its vast quantity boosts profitability of the already dominant Saars-companies. Most people are stuck at the part where intelligence starts to become abundant causing them to think that its exponential growth in quantity, so to speak, causes exponential growth to the moon and beyond, wiping out every competitor that does not own that intelligence. To my mind that sums up the current conversation about AI and its economic impact.

Really good. Thank you for the update. Hopefully we will go below 20 Mil. this year. High odds for that.

+1 Boomers in power could just quit and try to show good will with the sole purpose of solving this. Instead they embrace in this weird mix of human nature, desire for revenge, twisted religious beliefs and pointing at past mistakes of the other side while covering up their own. All while trying to satisfy their fanatic lust for power. And people like Cubs, 73Reds and Ourkid8 are their little soldier NPCs spawning everywhere and guarding them as soon as they fuck up shit again. Thank you for your service. Pretty sure the Holy Bible and the Holy Quran cover bombing civilians (and their infrastructure) and building atomic bombs and billions of rockets. No doubt.

Pretty sure this is going to happen actually.

You don`t visit this thread often, do you? My compliments.

Slightly off-topic, yet I will give it a go even if I risk a slap in the face: Anyone has any ideas for long-term European compounders like FFH and BRK (though maybe not the same quality)? Ideally listed within the European Union and re-investing earnings i/o paying divs.

Even some European big brains got these Fairfax news and bought a few shares during the european session. Interesting, considering that the stock is most of the time flat during the european session.

If they re-install the Shah again, it will just be another cycle starting from anew. To my mind it shows that the people of Iran are not ready for a true liberation in the form of a completely new political system. Instead they are stuck between a monarchy and an islamic state. Both with a strong tendency towards authoritarianism. At some point the islamic forces will regain strength and the country will once more tumble into chaos. This part of the world is stuck in an authoritarian spiral. If the people don`t manage to find a completely new system but are instead stuck in past times this will never end.

Are you a fund manager or do you manage your private funds?

-"Essais" from Michelle de Montaigne -The Nomad Letters

Thank you. I needed that wake up call. I am 32 and technically not an illiterate. However this is something else...

I lean to liking the idea of having this position sold, even if it is painful. Egypt is a military dictatorship. The performance can be best in class. It does not matter if its offset by the depreciation of the currency. Especially for such a long time. Global diversification is a good idea and with Greece you have a very good example where it is paying off. But the political ditch between Egypt and other countries Fairfax is involved in is obviously large and I would like to see a more far-sighted approach from Fairfax. Especially concerning Africa/Middle East. But what do I know about their idea entering in the first place...

Once you sell with a gain you are always subject to roughly 28% taxes. This makes it harder to play the overvalued/undervalued game which narrows the selection of companies. It`s why I limit myself to companies that I intend to hold for decades. Should have used "tax considerations" instead.

How long have you been investing like this? I set my max. number of positions at 3. Trying to keep it simple and also due to tax reasons in my country. I currently own Fairfax only, mainly because it is a company that I know most of (next to Berkshire and thanks to Viking) and because it still has a long way to go.

And here I am sipping on a cup of black tea.

Hopefully nobody died. But I do not necessarily see that as a bad thing. These politicians are like parasites paralyzing a whole entire nation robbing it of its potential. Economically and politically (and so also socially), Venezuela could easily be somewhere else (in a positive way). Impressive they could pull that off so "easily".