adventurer

Your portfolio-structure has been my goal for some time now (I set myself a limit of 3 businesses). But you nearly have more investing experience in years than I even live. And I am still in the position of having to average into stocks. Currently FFH. FFH becomes too expensive now though. Monthly buys are not possible anymore at these prices. And so I was thinking about JOE and PROT.OL to use for cost averaging instead. I think they both have a long way ahead. In time and valuation. Congratulations on your portfolio. Very much admired. From a structure as well as risk tolerance standpoint.

Merry Christmas to the members of this board and their families!

Can`t buy "fat stacks" every day @gfp

True. Trump was right in pushing Europe to up their military budgets too. Though I am not an expert, I doubt Europe`s military strength is anywhere near where you believe it to be, considering your last sentence.

Can`t wait for my next paycheck...

Interesting take shifting the risk from a "normal" stock market bubble to a more geopolitical risk. Also: https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/white-collar-jobs-ai-324b749c?mod=hp_lead_pos1 I am in my early 30s and I of course did know the risk for these layoffs. But the pace is scary and this does look like a Loolapalooza with many different perceptions involved. The outcome appears to be very hard to predict if you want to account for political counter measures too. I doubt people will let that go through just like that.

Ah sorry, thanks!

I lost track of the outstanding shares. Do you have a rough estimate as to where we are right now? My last count was 22.8 Mil.

I just switched from Windows to Mac and installed Adblock for Safari but it does not seem to have any effect. Have ads gotten worse from yesterday to today? The amount is unbearable imho.

Hi @Viking, do you have a post on how Fairfax may be affected by longer bear markets like the GFC08? Did you ever have thoughts on that?

Though I am not too worried about the stock retreating with the management Fairfax has (stock buybacks), I am a bit worried as to how Fairfax intends to surface value over the years. Most people here agree that Fairfax owns a lot of hidden value that seems to be out of sight for analysts and the investing public. But as to how this hidden value will find its way to the surface remains somewhat unclear to my mind....

He brought down egg prices by 400% too. A true leader!

Cutting the TRS a bit would also align with the reduction of the bond portfolio`s duration to 2,4 years in that both would be more defensive moves. It would not appear to be an illogical move to my mind. But what do I know.

What made you consider PROT.OL originally? The hard market?

Over here we do not have tax deferred accounts or anything of the sort. So the moment you sell is the very moment your gains are being taxed. The time I will be invested is yet set to be quiet long (30-40 years). My goal (though not always attainable) is a compound rate of 10-15% over that timeline but at least above average. Now, if one wants to achieve 15% p.a. over here, after a bit of arithmetic, you would have to achieve around 22% of a pre-tax gain every time you sell something which is of course crazy high. The golden alternative to a company that you will probably sell at some point (due to an economic cycle ending, management changes for the worse etc.) would be an investment one can hold on to for decades of course, letting it compound. This in turn limits your options significantly what makes Munger`s method of three companies at max. appear logical and attractive. Hence, to my mind, being invested into 1-3 companies at max. is a question of pure necessity (alternatively 1 index fund if you are not as concerned with your investments as most of us are here). Munger himself said that he was good at buying and holding forever but that he was bad at knowing when to sell. I hope to get to live by this reasonably well though I failed a few times by now already...

Thank you!

Does anyone know where I can find the release date for Q2 2025? I am having a hard time finding this.

What a time to be alive.

From here on out I personally believe the world rotates backwards now.

@73 Reds @This2ShallPass @Milu Thank you!

My portfolio had a bit of a ride the last 6 months. During Trump`s announcement in the beginning of April I concluded it would be wise to hold cash and trimmed my portfolio down to only FFH (cold feet). I am in my (yet) very early 30s without a family or any other financial obligations (just yet) and I have been having trouble with sizing and discipline (as you can see above). My IRR (internal rate of return) over the course of 1 1/2 years has been around 27% (these are returns that I made solely on the positions named above). I am still very much intrigued by C.Munger`s idea of concentrating my investments. This makes me think about maximizing my FFH position. The reason I would be so comfortable doing that is because of the management. At the moment it basically all comes down to the question of whether to go all in on a good opportunity like FFH (since I am relatively young) or whether to hold cash of up to 20-25%. What would you have done in my position? Edit: I keep thinking of C.Munger`s Mozart metaphor now...

How did you arrive at the conclusion that the quality of these papers went down over the decades?

How do you figure that?

No worries, I got your back: https://www.amazon.com/Logic-Dummies-Zegarelli/dp/0471799416/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2RTCGXSM3Y2D1&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.xnUgzl5TzvKr80OjR1VaJZNKjMGzxlidHoS4b8HtrFIXkED0EHIsxNPRFO2BVf17c9gB3VDGwhgeXXUtg5anne_hCfI31J7tz7bFtW7d30gCYxN1Gyzoyfohggbv2RU_-uCH6GYZ74JZ6MNYnaSPUy2IShw_xBgI8T2CPO1otWM3TeDZIjKWzrhXX8dbHkQ_mvd3LxEDl6pTUnQXdcNjrTi4scHqjHBoJAT4A4aiNVY.wdMG2rsDqdNSrrXbvWnN_tvdELoSh0jQSnkfOCq_OnA&dib_tag=se&keywords=logic+for+dummies&qid=1750082663&sprefix=logic+for+dummies%2Caps%2C233&sr=8-1

Why does that article not surprise me? Cubs way of reasoning is one of the weakest on this board... “She had a gun, ammo, and a passport → therefore it is logical to create a narrative suggesting that she was going to flee the country (or commit a crime).” - cubsfan That is basically like saying something like: "Premise: A number is divisible by 2 and by 3. Conclusion: Therefore, the number must be divisible by 23." - Also cubsfan, probably. Weak inductive inference. Might as well visit a course on logic instead.