Gregmal

CNBC: Stocks slip as investors brace themselves for remarks from Fed chair Powell… Brace themselves huh? Lol, my goodness

Who cares? If the US defaults, everyone will likely try to create a circus and “look at me I called it” show. But really, it would just be a casual reminder to the studious market participant that anything can happen. If the US can default, so can anyone, ratings be damned. So again, does it even matters. And if you already approach your investments with some sort of level of caution or diligence…this wouldn’t be news in the first place. Although I would laugh at the treasury buyers. 4% will always be a waste of time. Regardless of who sends it.

I’m just wondering, if there’s an official spokesperson for the super bear camp…when is the official goalpost moving ceremony on the hard landing date? I still loosely have it as H1 2023, but I’m starting to see a lot of the same folks now saying Q3/4 2023 or Q1 2024….

Come on guys. With all the divergences out there, is the best idea this year really betting on whether YE FF is 4.25/4.5 or 5? I’m always open to ideas with toque but I am not even convinced there’s an effective yo-yo to play such a wager. I mean maybe the market grinds 10-15% lower…which if you know the options game, probably means you’re lucky to break even unless you time it absolutely perfectly. I would still wager shorting AAL bonds or buying far OTM puts on a 2025 refi crunch is the best higher rate shock/recession play out there. But splitting hairs on a thesis down to 50 bps on FF seems like you’re giving yourself too many ways to lose.

The next decade certainly won't look like the last. But I also like things that are asymmetric, off the radar, and have big payoffs. Theres none of that with trying to guess, let alone spending tons of time worrying about, whether inflation is 3.35 or 3.75 or 4.15% going forward. All we need to know, is what we already know, and thats that the clowns who said it would be north of 5% are done and so is all that came with that fear mongering charade.

Half dozen by noon?(1 pm given the time difference)…yes we can courtesy of the fine folks at The Pearl.

Just wondering how many years worth of returns from the highly acclaimed 5% treasury one would need to acquire the returns received from the start of this thread?

Everyone knows the scoundrels I’m referring to. Mainly hedge fund guys and macro traders. The formula was so obvious. 1)Scream to anyone who would listen about the necessity of rate hikes (while shorting the market and buying 4-5% bonds lol). No conflict or agenda there! 2)Claim the Fed MUST do this. It’s an issue of ethics and national stability…LOL 3)Deliberately and dishonestly point to current CPI as the metric to determine inflation and where rates need to be raised to. 4)Quote the 70s stuff and unproven academic theory that doesn’t exist today but sounds scary This game is dead and those folks deserve to get buried.

Think equations. We had what? 4-5 or whatever 75 bps hikes and a 50. We re at 25 now. 1,2,3,4 more 25 IMO aren’t a big deal because either way we are like 90-95% through the hike cycle. People can already start seeing the other side of things, so they’ll pay up more than they would have last year when most people were at best just guessing and many could still say we are gonna see hikes to 7-8%. Now those people are outed as the scumbag manipulators or total loonies that they are. Simply put, we have a sane bid/ask in terms of outcomes.

And then Japan or pre COVID USA pops up and says Hi, welcome to the real world.

Vs what’s priced in? Nope. Doesn’t matter at all. Its why so many continue to sit here and scratch their heads as valuations rebound. Because last years declines priced in a whole lot worse. We are seeing the bid/ask in terms of most probably outcomes narrow big time.

CNBC: Dow falls as jobs reports suggests Fed will keep hiking Much like with Omicron over Thanksgiving 2021, theyre going to milk this til every last sucker gets fleeced. First, Dow is down 150 points...a rounding error and normal daily fluctuation. Second, blowout jobs show a healthy economy...that is good. Third, so what if the Fed does another 25-50 bps? Weren't folks just clamoring about the market expectation being 5-5.5 FF and how we are gonna go way beyond that? Or did that change already? Fourth, Feds job is dealing with inflation, not killing jobs for no reason....theres been zero link shown between inflation and jobs so far, and the academic wage price spiral theory is still just that.

Just my guess and I’ve been tuned out for a couple weeks now but basically rate hikes are done, and economy will avoid any sort of hard landing. Don’t think we are pricing in much optimism but the recent rally also now makes those pay for certainty that all the doom and gloom is over. IE now pretty much everyone and their mom knows we won’t have 7% treasuries and widespread business+ CRE blowups. My 2c was that the real bottom was June, then the pump and dumpers took another shot at it in October because “ZOMG, did you hear him? HE SAID THERE WILL BE PAIN”, but that wasn’t as pure a capitulation as the tech bottom. All the ponzi and SoftBank stuff signaled a real bottom in June. That stuff was the first to crack, so by the textbook that would have been the first to bottom.

Idk how they calculate it, but a common theme I see often is these shit bag short sellers going equally reckless with the puts and short selling, and they turn around and blame retail traders and MEME stocks for getting squeezed when really it’s their own buddies on the short side getting blown out. It’s like peak GameStop…when the crooks at the brokerages made it impossible for retail to buy….there was still tens of billions in volume for days on end….uh..that wasn’t retail volume, not at all. This sort of stuff has pretty much become an irrelevant dataset IMO. It’s how a lot of the biggest trades in history have happened. Big guys build up their positions while blaming everyone else or hiding behind noise and then when it’s all said and done everyone wonders why these random hedge funds made a fortune…basically what Melvin and folks like Hwang did for years.

Ive got another theory and thats that anyone who isnt utilizing the stupid CPI measure to gauge inflation, wouldnt even be able to tell the difference between 2 and 4. Thats how irrelevant it is. In fact, you could go from 3% positive to 3% negative probably doing little else but switching from name brand to white label or keeping the heating 5 degrees cooler in the winter and AC 5 degrees warmer in the summer. These are all largely nonsensical measures that are used to fabricate policy. Is reported car price inflation simply based on enough people wanting a used car with 10,000 miles vs 14,000? Or an extra half bath in their home? You wouldnt know the difference...

And thats why the whole macro shit is tough thing exists. And why most of the bear camp, IE the Chanos and Einhorn types of the world need to go on TV or Twitter to pump their holdings and attempt to manipulate or control the narrative and market. Cuz Jimbos been short Tesla for years and Einhorn has too along with the rest of FANG, and well, gee, AAPL is still like 30-40x whatever earnings...dont know many that have actually made money, even on "valuations being crazy" or now "earnings deteriorating". Like unless you're just doing it to milk fees or sell a product, its just a million times easier with 10% of the effort to just find decent longs.

It’s actually really funny you mention that. Yesterday was doing the same; watching my kids on the beach and dolphins breaching the surface 30 yards out all afternoon. Never once thought about bothering with was it 25 or 50? or “what did he say at the presser”…life generally goes on sufficiently either way. If my investments are long term predicated on such nonsense I’m doing it wrong.

Recession screamers likely create the next big opportunity but as far as 3% inflation, 1)..the goalposts keep moving in. Last year it was a certainty 5% was entrenched. People even argued with me about stuff going well south of 5 by fall 2023. 2) if we are at 3-4 next year this time there will be much more of “look how far we ve come” talk than “kill it all cuz you’re losing 50 bps over your annual raises!” talk. The big reason last year worked for the fear mongerers was bc you had these wild 5-10% prints and real world 20%+ increases and you could scream like an attention whore about Zimbabwe and needing to wipe out the world to solve it and 8% treasuries and all that shit. That’s done; put a fork it it. No one will care if Powell wants to be a tough guy to claim the last 150 bps on inflation.

If you're still looking at inflation you might as well still be looking at covid case counts....story unfolds almost exactly as youd have expected. Next.

Yea we are definitely doing the pool against my better judgement. I hate owning a pool from a recurring headache perspective but the kids demand it and it’s a good ROI for these sort of properties. But bigger picture it highlights the value of Clubs. Especially during peak season when no one in their right mind is messing with public beach access areas.

Biggest surprise so far is actually insurance. Its like $3-4k to insure a $1M house. Maybe even a little less. Would've thought like $20k+ based on what you hear. Taxes are less than 1% of home value. Even the optional $50k up front Club fee in the proper perspective is enlightening. It costs $120-150k for a tiny backyard pool but even the builders tell you it is like 30% cheaper if you just have it done later on your own. But even still, the included amenities are insane and why pay $100k for a tiny pool when you can pay $50k once and then $10k a year and have access to all the clubs, miles of private beach, and golf courses that come with Club membership? The flywheel here is insanely efficient for everyone involved.

Nah still have the Keys and its still my favorite place in the world but you just cant live there full time unless you are fully committed to fried food and alcoholism. Im only like 20-30% committed to those things and my kids need a good school system and place to play/do sports/make friends.

Eventually moving. In between probably gonna be both a rental and a second home for a bit. Main objective was to secure a real property somewhere I could live. Backfill the financial and ROI stuff after LOL.

Haha yea thats from one of the models...everything is TBB...to be built. They certainly find ways to cram as much as they can into 5,000 sq/ft building lots. And while nice, the pools are like 12x24 and 3-5 ft deep which is a lot to mentally process since at home Ive got an 11 ft deep 20x40....but as with much in life, decisions gotta be made. A minibar though? Not much of a decision at all LOL

Build time is about 4-6 months. Its the new Longleaf neighborhood. Getting a bit of a first mover discount since its basically phase 1 of Origins West. Downside is for 2 years theres gonna be building going on all around. Upside is 50% LTV for 2 years works well with rental projections. After that its a fully developed hood and likely prices similar to the similarly finished communities. Things are moving well there already as first tranche of lots JOE delivered in October are pretty much all sold out and getting delivered this summer.