Gregmal
-
Posts
14,252 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
17
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by Gregmal
-
-
I actually really enjoyed Kuppys latest blog on how it framed a lot of the noisier market participants out there today. The pod shoppers. So true and so accurate how these snake oilers operate and what they look to do.
As it relates to this subject, I think inflation is firmly in the 2.5-4 range and not really going up much or down much…rates will gradually grind lower, but it will play out over several years, not quarters. You kinda just want to take the 30,000 foot view that this is the environment you’re playing in. What you don’t want to do is fall for the subscription sellers and snake oilers at the pod shops into extrapolating these arbitrary short term fluctuations like “CPI came in at .3 vs .2 which is 50% higher!!!!!”. Or that “inflation is still 40% higher than their mandate and this month we reaccelerated!”(with implications it’s headed back to 2022 levels but no commitment to a firm number mind you).
We saw how all this played out when we had real issues back in 2021 and early 2022 and these guys got left in the dust and now theyre pissed they look like idiots with SPY at ATHs…just focus on the bigger picture and play in the playground that’s most fun. Fun for me is making money. Not selling people subscription or getting followers and liked tweets. There is plenty of stuff that’s just gonna print money in a 3-4% inflation, 4-5% FFR environment. -
IDK...Ive just always thought, at least since this whole saga began, the steady state new norm is like 3-4% inflation with some inconsequential noise occasionally. That kinda works for everyone. The bigger thing in housing is that the FED is the reason its currently weighing in where it is. So I suppose the important read here is whether housing prices reaccelerate if rates come down, or if merely it allows more supply to hit the market at or around current pricing? Whatever it is, the lag is gonna require 12-18 months to get answers on, and as always, the market will price it in well before that.
-
So much of the current “inflation” people are talking about is because of the heavy weighting in housing related inputs. And housing is elevated because of rates being high. Ex shelter we re probably sub 2%.
-
The Wagyu of feces. Top notch.
-
22 minutes ago, Luca said:
Remains to be seen what impact vaping and other replacements can do, but yes, I see this ice cube potentially melting faster than expected @Dinar pointed out. No position and currently no interest in one.
Aren't the best prices offered when there is NO catalyst? As we can see with Lufax as an example.
No. Rather buy after the bottom is in because it lets other people figure out where the bottom is. I still hear cult like chants of “price is what you pay, value is what you get” from the BABA thread going back YEARS now. Stuff like LU just gives people false hope.
-
Smoking starts out as a social thing. This element alone has been greatly eroded as far as the smoking bull case goes. Kids today compared to decades ago really don’t smoke cigarettes.
As far as the list. 2 works. And I’m bullish on 4 but need an inflection first.
-
For instance, my friends father in law, was a high school principal in NYC til he turned 60 and retired. In his 20/30s he did tons of camping and RVing in the summers, a lifestyle he enjoyed living and one made possible by all the time off teachers get. He boasted about having to be thrifty early on, but his quality of life was definitely acceptable. By his 50s he had several homes and was financially thriving. He’s currently in his 90s and still collecting 6 figures a year from the tax payers JUST from the pension!
-
21 minutes ago, thepupil said:
you know anyone in their 20's / 30's that's tried/is trying to become a professor?
Yes. 20/30s isn’t sunshine and unicorns but once you get your 7-10 years in I don’t think I could find better or easier all around jobs. The mid 40s gal who teaches 1st grade at my sons school makes $130k a year…
And the thing is too, the 20/30 crowd it often not the crowd put through rigorous training and academics…but the state schoolers and party animals.
This isn’t an “I hate teachers” declaration by any means, but there’s little question in my mind that between the low barriers to entry, high level of political gatekeepers, and an overall entrenchment within the “public funding” sphere…ugh…yuck.
-
5 minutes ago, Dinar said:
I don't listen to those who call capitalists parasites. I have seen that movie before, it is a call to mass murder.
Within reason, yes I agree with you. Where I differ is when you get these scumbag types who have more than enough for themselves to be comfortable already, yet continue to worship money and take advantage of others for more. Theyre definitely parasites
-
Like think of the ones who get mad if you dont call them "doctor" even though they do literature or philosophy LOL
-
4 minutes ago, Luca said:
I dont know about the situation in the US but professors in the EU are suffering shitbags, slaves during exhaustive PHDs, tons of debt, bad pay compared to efforts, hard to become tenured, hard to get funding, publication pressure etc
The professors i know dont make bank, work hard and are an asset to the country.
Maybe a tiny percentage of gender professors do weird things but its super hard to get to these positions too.
Yea, not here....Here even high school teachers get great benefits, job security, and time adjusted pay....they whine, but leave out they get off weeks for the winter, months for the summer, spring break, and all the other typicals. But the private school ones along with college/university...especially in the grad schools, are where you find the real enemies of the people.
-
2 minutes ago, cubsfan said:
^^^ It's a big mistake to hold many professors in esteem. You can see the disaster playing out among higher education in America. I've got more respect for carpenters and heavy equipment operators than many professors.
Yup...the biggest grift in America right now is the guys getting paid 6 figures with amazing benefits and complete job security to drink craft beers and teach/hit on young adults 4 hours a day, 3 days a week.
-
5 minutes ago, scorpioncapital said:
The FTC is even going after money losing or precarious companies. Look at irobot merger fail. Stock from 50 to 8. Or grail by illumina the company doesn't even have a product yet. Meanwhile some drug companies are allowed. It's scary as it seems almost random?
Its not random. Nobody on Main Street really knows or cares who Bristol Meyers is. But "standing up to evil big tech" like Amazon or Apple is a sure win even if the case is BS. Same with the airlines "jackin up y'alls rates"...even though we know labor and oil are the real reasons....Illumina IMO is an actual monopoly, thats the only one I kinda see. The rest of these are just for show and political points.
-
-
Eh I disagree. If he was going from 100% exposure to 75%…I agree selling Fairfax here is dumb. But when you’re playing with margin anything over that 100% exposure marker is money that’s not yours so you do what you gotta do.
-
Never forget: “the market is pricing in 6-8 rate cuts in 2024 and at SPY 4600 there’s absolutely no margin for error, the market is priced to perfection”….
Zero rate cuts and 3 dots plotted on the stupid chart later….
-
Its a lot of these things but when they come together it creates something magnitudes worse. Like just the general lack of decency from many of these people. The way they make these "ideals" a selfish entitlement issue. How everyone just needs to eat what they have to offer and take it. How we've turned terms like "family values" into something with a negative connotation. Right, so even recently I snickered after getting a community email for one of our clubs about how "thong swimsuits are not permitted" and couldn't help but think how if it was the town pool or some city location how you'd get a parade of outraged Tik Tok videos from a bunch of mouthy, entitled whores complaining about how their civil rights are being violated LOL. People just dont think about anyone but themselves these days. Politics and social media are definitely the culprits.
-
16 minutes ago, Sweet said:
That kinda sucks. I’ve become a lot less political over time. Having a family does that to you. Overly political people suck the air out of the room when they start talking politics.Yea its happened in a lot of places. The town I grew up in, a NYC suburb has gone from like 50/50 to 70/30 blue. Look at New England in the suburbs, with all the high earning men who's wives wear the pants and push progressivism from their classrooms....gone from healthy purple to clean blue....the stuff is contagious.
You used to be able to find "normal" in a lot of different places throughout the country; today IDK, the things you have to sacrifice to get normal are crazy. Theres places that are inherently loud and emblematic of the things most people hate...you expect the things that you expect in NYC, same as you expect WV things in WV...there used to be a whole lot in between NYC and WV but more and more of the map is getting into this flag planting bullshit where everyone needs to declare their positions on these dumb issues. Now that I have kids I want nothing to do with these sort of people, and my animosity just grows as I have to sit here and look at these people who lectured us on following the science through their triple masked ensemble now tell us gender isnt real....
-
4 hours ago, Sweet said:
Whats the split now in that town, it was 60/40 conservative, has it swung one way or another?50/50 maybe. But the noise is exponentially louder
-
4 minutes ago, Parsad said:
Greg, it's equally mind-boggling how many vote for Trump...as you said...the dude isn't even capable of holding a conversation, ask his keepers as well. Problem is that Trump's keepers can't get him to stop self-immolating!
Frankly, both parties are insane in pushing these guys to the front! The American people and both parties are doing exactly what the U.S. presently deserves...retards for President! You just better hope that as Buffett says, the company (known as the U.S.) has enough competitive advantages to survive poor managers running it! Cheers!
I’m just generally over it and have given up. The last 4 years(starting with COVID, not Biden) I’ve just come to terms with the fact that the system is unbeatable. It’s not changing. You can only change what you have control over yourself.
Even my great little Northern NJ town that I moved to over a decade ago now…started as probably 60/40 conservative, but the thing is, no one talked about politics. No one really cared or lived with it influencing anything they did. Then we get COVID, and all these shoebox dwelling assholes I guess apparently realized they value some space and not having the government tell them where they’re allowed to go for a walk or shop, and then come out here thinking they’re hardasses with their dumb hate has no home here bumper stickers on their $90k Suburbans and guess what? Now all the red hats come out, we have antivax rallies outside the town square, every board of Ed election is now about tampon dispensers in the boys rooms and what’s available in the libraries….and it’s the same shitshow it is everywhere else I detest. Fuck all these people.
So like a grumpy old man I’m packing my shit and moving to where the only topics are what’s your t-time and how’s the investments looking? Just done with it all.
-
I mean watch how many people vote Biden even though the dude isn’t even capable of holding a conversation, asks his keepers if he’s even allowed to answer questions from the press who white glove him to begin with, and quite clearly is guilty the same shit they whined about Trump and his family doing? My goodness. And then when you ask them why? You’ll get some bullshit cop out like “they’re both bad but he’s better than the other guy” like some handicap 5 year old!
-
2 hours ago, Sweet said:
I think that’s certainly part of it, a big F off to career politicians, media and other powerful groups and people.At the end of the day, because of the corrupt nature of it all, you have to ignore the candidate, and simply look at the policies.
Do you believe in high taxes or lower taxes?
Do you believe in law and order, or zero accountability chaos?
Do you believe in responsible immigration or a free for all?
We were obviously fucked, when even smart people like Mitt Romney, and heck LOL even a big number of folks we could see even on this site, just total emotionally crippled dumbasses, just couldn’t put their personal disdain for the guy aside, and openly supported a guy who literally ran on “open borders”…and will now listen to the same guy claim he had nothing to do with the current border situation despite reversing what? 40 different border policies within his first month in office? The same people cried about “cozying up to dictators” and voted for a guy who’s a career warmonger and guess what? Now we ve had a new war pop up pretty much each year he’s been in office.
Like with religion, sometimes the enemy is just brainwashed even though otherwise they might mean well.
-
2 minutes ago, gfp said:
Is that like $29-30 Billion valuation or have the number of shares changed?
$30b it is
-
6 minutes ago, Saluki said:
I'm fully invested right now, but starting a position in FRPH slowly as I get dividends or sell other very small positions that I was using a placeholder . I read the entire COBF thread and realized that I had looked at it years ago when it was Florida Rock and while I was sucking my thumb the offer from Vulcan came in and I missed the boat
Yea FRP you can just put in limit orders and call it a day. King of fat finger or random 4-5% volume induced dumps but is otherwise very stable and with the old buyback floor at $54 I’m fine moving my expected trading range from $54-60 to $58-65 given the fundamentals keep getting better.
Hussman is legendary
in General Discussion
Posted
I’ve also generally over time grown skeptical of the guys who really only outperformed during that 1999-2004 period. Seems like a period of time when it was just very easy to follow the textbook value investor stuff versus actually having to making a lot of qualitative reads and skilled trades.